Earl a Category 4 storm again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.

Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.

Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.

Jeff Masters

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2756. Zeec94
Quoting RecordSeason:
I'm about to scream consipiracy on the satellites.

they conveniently all stop updating/black out now, as Earl is turning NW to maybe even WNW?

What's up with that?


People didn't heed the warnings to evacuate. He noticed and said screw it, i'm going to nail them with all force and will make them think twice about evacuating next time. =P
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3 states NC, MD and one other I cant remember have already declared a state of emergnecy
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2754. mkmand
Ok can someone explain the PORT / STBD for me?
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2753. twooks
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=ir.logo

Almost approaching 75w...
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Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy lol bigg glass


LMFAO!!
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Before I take off it look like at the moment every single Wave that come out from Africa is developing into a name storm.. SCARY!!
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2749. JLPR2
Quoting hulazigzag:
its also been consistently right of the actual tracks of danielle and earl.


And of Alex too, it is awesome with tracks, not so much with predicting tropical cyclogenesis.
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2748. xcool
traumaboyy lol bigg glass
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting leo305:
Orca, if the hunters are far from the center, and they keep moving at that position, the center may eventually be west of the track still

we'll see


thats why I posted 2741
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Our favorite (TWC) says they are watching for the turn that has not started yet. And don't want to make predictions til they know
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2743. JLPR2
Quoting RecordSeason:
I'm about to scream consipiracy on the satellites.

they conveniently all stop updating/black out now, as Earl is turning NW to maybe even WNW?

What's up with that?


Looks like NW to me, for now
Link
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2742. leo305
Orca, if the hunters are far from the center, and they keep moving at that position, the center may eventually be west of the track still

we'll see
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


put money on it?? :p


To close to call... worst case... slightly to port
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2740. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


KOMPASU quickly crossed Korea
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Quoting btwntx08:

nope didnt wanted to develop alex until it form also the upgrade means its still not the best :D
its also been consistently right of the actual tracks of danielle and earl.
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Interesting thought post2688, there is however, SW sheer ahead of the trough, you have to take that into account too.
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2734. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

nope didnt wanted to develop alex until it form also the upgrade means its still not the best :D


Yeah, Gaston is one the GFS dropped too and Fiona.

Models suck, not models models, weather models. :P
I remember the EURO bombing Colin LOL!
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Quoting xcool:
superweatherman i'm sorry never said that Gulf Cost is close for the season just take oone storm all over

LOL... My luck tomorrow all the models have Gaston hitting the Texas Cost... LOL ... But I still believe that the only chance is for something to form closer at this point.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
If the HH is flying right at it by Radar... its going to be STBD of track... thats good :)






put money on it?? :p
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I would suggest Earl start to turn very quickly and very soon.


Amen! to That!
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2729. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
TROPICAL STORM KOMPASU (T1007)
12:00 PM JST September 2 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kompasu (992 hPa) located at 39.1N 128.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 29 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 42.5N 137.5E - EXTRATROPICAL
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Quoting xcool:
Cantore he scared


Forgot his Cat 5 Goggles...
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2727. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #50
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK (T1006)
12:00 PM JST September 2 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Southeastern China

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Lionrock (998 hPa) located at 23.8N 116.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.7N 112.8E - Tropical Depression
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Guess, 30N and 75W --at the same time!
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I would suggest Earl start to turn very quickly and very soon.
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2724. xcool
Cantore he scared
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Cantore says if it keeps coming west he and his team will be evacuating the CAPE to a safe location
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If the HH is flying right at it by Radar... its going to be STBD of track... thats good :)




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2720. Acorna
Quoting warmreflections:


Yuck Yuck Yuck~! That's not what I wanted to read first tonight. I have a friend in Jville who is out of town. I'm so afraid she and her hubby will try to come home. I sent her an email and begged her to stay put - she's in W. Virginia - which is a good place to be as long they don't get hit with tons of rain,


*raises hand* I'm in Jax myself. That was the last thing I wanted to read too. :(
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
At least not on this model run!!!


I know. Just wondering if it might could get in the GOM? Never asked if it would come here...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2718. xcool
superweatherman i'm sorry never said that Gulf Cost is close for the season just take oone storm all over
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting RitaEvac:
Xtrap its current motion its heading towards Jacksonville NC,


Yuck Yuck Yuck~! That's not what I wanted to read first tonight. I have a friend in Jville who is out of town. I'm so afraid she and her hubby will try to come home. I sent her an email and begged her to stay put - she's in W. Virginia - which is a good place to be as long they don't get hit with tons of rain,

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Quoting RecordSeason:
2688:

The farther west he goes, the farther west he will continue to go...right up to contact with the trough. This is because as he moves that direction he gets closer to the weakness.


At some point, the weakness is just going to open up and Earl will just race off in that direction until he hits the trough.


When will that happen? That's the million dollar question.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Quoting Orcasystems:


I should never have shown you that PORT/STBD stuff :)


hey my dads a captain, ive grown up with it my whole life :p says it in the car kinda annoying ;)
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2714. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


384hrs is even more interesting, three storms all in the CATL, would be interesting to see how those interact, if they ever form.

2012
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Here's Kure Beach, NC. I think they have someone manning the camera.

http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php

And Wrightsville Beach. Again, I believe it's manned

http://www.surfchex.com/index.php

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2710. leo305
you guys see that little out burst to the WNW on the NW side of the center?

There's a bit of an opening there to allow earl to move more westward, in fact it's allowing the outflow to be a little more enhanced at that side of the circulation disrupting the CDO a bit .. there may be a weak ULL over the SE allowing it to move more westward*NOTICE THIS MAY NOT BE THE ULL OVER THE GULF*..

that may be the reason it's still moving NW.. and not NNW/N..

very dangerous situation
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
2709. redUK
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


its a perfect circle...


Correction - dry air has gotten into the inner convection band, the eye is OK for now.
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2708. Acorna
Earl is the camel.
The turn is the needle.

Chances of the camel fitting through the eye of the needle..?

(ok that made very little sense but it's nearly 1 AM and I'm sort of rambly - forgive me xD)
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Quoting JLPR2:


Way far out to tell, ask again in 10 days. XD



Yeah, I got lots of relatives in NYC, got my fingers crossed.


Worried lot of people going to get a suprise later today......but what do I know...lol
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
depends if the series of troughs develops as shown. it's just model guidance. remember gfs was re-curving earl and fiona and dropping fiona before the other models and some on this blog. location and timing are everything.


GFS has done pretty well so far.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.