Earl a Category 4 storm again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.

Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.

Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2106 - 2056

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Quoting Ryuujin:
It hasn't.


It sure hasn't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I keep seeing post about people not taking the storm serious, or leaving because of what they've read on this blog. But I've read HUNDREDS of posts and not a single one said - oh you're safe stay. Dozens that said Listen to your local Authorities, Dozens that said Better safe than Sorry. But not ONE that said OH STAY YOUR SAFE.

Guess the blog must be moving so fast I missed those, cause lots of posts talking about them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2103. Ryuujin
Quoting ncstorm:
the local media is saying the North turn has begun which is good
It hasn't.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373
2102. 900MB
Looks like cone has moved ever so slightly East.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 660
Quoting Bielle:
I have friends in Wellfleet, Cape Cod, a mile from the ocean and a mile from the bay. They haven't worked out yet how to install their storm shutters. They are both in their 60s. What advice would you be giving them tomorrow morning, given there is just one road on the Cape to the mainland?

First, medicines...in zip lock bags
Second, cash
third, fill the gas tank up
fourth, video or pictures of everything in the house...stored in a zip lock bag
fifth, you didn't mention pets...but if they exist gather food, medicines for them.
sixth and most important, they need to make a decision as to whether to stay or run. unless they think they will be trapped in traffic, I vote to get the hell out of dodge. DO NOT WAIT, IF THEY ARE GOING TO GO. Riding out a storm, trapped in your car, really sucks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texascoastres:
Good evening neighbor and everyone on! Agreed! Heres one for them
Hey there, I'm still driving by your house on the way to work in Chocolate Bayou!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ehh, according to some researchers, good ones at that, the Katrina was a cat 5 and, thus, caused more surge is a bit of a myth.

On a physics level, Katrina's size and windfield caused the surge at the coast, as a strong cat 3.

If Ike taught us anything, it should have been what a large system can do in surge, without having recently been much stronger. (Ike never eclipsed cat 3 in the Gulf)


oops, link: http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168955.htm

Aww, dang, modify, not quote.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
000
WTNT42 KNHC 020259
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF EARL HAS
BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE
COOLED. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 137 KT JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT A FLIGHT LEVEL JUST BELOW 7000 FT. REDUCING THIS WIND
SPEED FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SURFACE YIELDS ABOUT
120 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. EARL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A
DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WOBBLED NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO...HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N
MI ON THIS CYCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
THIS LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.8N 73.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 75.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.2N 75.2W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 48.5N 61.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2095. ncstorm
the local media is saying the North turn has begun which is good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:


Well the $64,000 question is will the trough make it in time?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2093. leo305
They are too conservative..

HH found 931.. and they put out 932?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2092. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
2091. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
The Atlantic A.C.E. (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for 2010 has reached 52.44. Couple of things notable about that:

1) This year's A.C.E. is more than 500% of what it was just a little over a week ago (it stood at 9.42 fewer than eleven days back);

2) This year's A.C.E. has already exceeded the totals for both that of 1997--the lightest year of the current "active" hurricane period--and last year, 2009.

3) This year's A.C.E. is already higher than the totals for that of 15 of the past 60 seasons;

All this, and we're only one day into September. So...any of you downcasters still want to call the season a bust? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2089. xcool
BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
2088. leo305
Quoting CloudGatherer:
I don't mean to be rude, Levi - you know vastly more about this than I do - but you've been harping on the dry air and its probable inhibiting effects for several days, and despite those predictions, Earl has rapidly restrengthened this evening. So if it didn't stop Earl then, why should it stop it now?


a CAT 5 needs perfect conditions, but earl is showing me sometimes a storm can become a strong 4 without perfect conditions...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LadyKat - All about the labor day money. At 8:00pm here, DC weather folks were raving about the excellent beach weather Sat/Sun/Mon. NHC has and does an excellent job, but it is a forecast and not a perfect science and this storm is utterly serious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


The Chart is my proxy.

Used to live in Goldsboro, NC.... gonna be a mad house out that way with evacuees.

Hope folks are leaving now. Too close a call not to.


If they don't get out early the overwash will cut them off. Once you've been through a big one you learn humility quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
doh.


I knew you'd say that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2084. ussual
ROFLAO good one, I think NHC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
have you missed me?



Welcome Newbee DestinJeff



Not only where you not missed....


But did you notice we are all Doomed.


Somewhere on the intardnet there must be a chart that forecast the DOOM....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2082. robj144
Did the 11 just come out? 140 mph and 932 mb?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2080. Melagoo

1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2078. JeffM
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 020255
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

GASTON HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
WRAPS FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS CURRENTLY T3.3/51 KT...BUT
A RECENT 0013 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE CYCLONE...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS
COULD PREVENT THE DRY AIR FROM HAVING A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
STILL...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GFDL AND HWRF ONLY STRENGTHEN GASTON TO
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE...THE SHIPS MODEL
MAKES IT A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE LGEM BRINGS IT TO
CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST IDEAL AND THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WHEN EASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE A BIT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS BEGUN TO SLOW
DOWN...POSSIBLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHWEST. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 KT. WITH THE BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS
STILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 37.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 42.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 49.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2075. xcool
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
jk,



not much change?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oracle28:


But there is a difference between the surge of a storm that WAS a Cat 5 and one that was never above Cat 3. That's a key variable that can't be understated.

If Earl went to Cat 1 tomorrow, it would still produce a surge greater than the typical Cat 1.
Ehh, according to some researchers, good ones at that, the Katrina was a cat 5 and, thus, caused more surge is a bit of a myth.

On a physics level, Katrina's size and windfield caused the surge at the coast, as a strong cat 3.

If Ike taught us anything, it should have been what a large system can do in surge, without having recently been much stronger. (Ike never eclipsed cat 3 in the Gulf)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
For those wanting i have Oz on my Website when he is live......go to my blog and follow the link as i have a community chatroom and Instant messanger set up as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2071. Ryuujin
Link

RAMSDIS link, showing the eyewall still firmly intact and reintensifying
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373
Quoting Levi32:
The dry air getting entrained into Earl is more than likely to prevent Cat 5. It's the same situation as Danielle which capped her at a Cat 4 without a perfect core, and Earl is the same way right now. He still has the look of a hurricane being affected by dry air, and thus not perfect, which is essentially the definition of Category 5.
I don't mean to be rude, Levi - you know vastly more about this than I do - but you've been harping on the dry air and its probable inhibiting effects for several days, and despite those predictions, Earl has rapidly restrengthened this evening. So if it didn't stop Earl then, why should it stop it now?
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Gaston

"THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS
STILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST."
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Is the NHC update really 11:45 for the "11pm" update? ughh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Will Gaston turn right? Or we in the tropics hace to start worrying?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2065. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20345
2064. ncstorm
Quoting DestinJeff:


The Chart is my proxy.

Used to live in Goldsboro, NC.... gonna be a mad house out that way with evacuees.

Hope folks are leaving now. Too close a call not to.


Home of Southern Wayne and Eastern Wayne high schools
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Earl has become one heck of s swirl!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The size doesn't matter right now (cat 4/5)...the important thing is it's cruisin at a good speed and still heading NW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2061. ussual
Mayhaps some time at the shooting range could fix that whole missing with every shoot thing. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
to the ones who are in the cone and u have the chance to leave now please do ... have u ever been in the winds of a storm like this or witnessed the damage that can be done or hear the crys and screams of ppl that wanted to leave but couldnt ... please dont play with nature .. its not a pretty site. im from the westbank of new orleans , and even after five years i cring everytime i see a storm in the waters so , please take head and evacuate ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2058. beell
So who's gonna "blink" first, Earl/NHC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2057. leo305
conidtions must be perfect for a CAT 5, but if the system reaches 156mph winds, it will be classified a CAT 5 regardless of conditions..

I agree it's almost impossible to get a hurricane of this intensity with such conditions, I really doubted it would even re strengthen into a CAT 4 due to the amount of significant dry air in the upper layers of the atmosphere, but earl is strengthening despite that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 73.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 73.4W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2106 - 2056

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.