Earl a Category 4 storm again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.

Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.

Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.

Jeff Masters

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2206. ussual
"couple of questions
1. Who forced you onto this blog
2. Are you aware that each day more than 5,000,000 blogs and websites are created, more than enough for you to haunt in a lifetime. So why don't you GSWTFE(go somehwere the f--k else). Don't care if I get banned . Majority of people on here are good people , don't need to be disrespected like this.
Oh , and my training? Master's Degree Emergency And Disaster Management with portion of course spent traing in Isreal; wrote disaster plans for company with 137,000 employees in 44 countries; physician assistant 10 years; paramedic 20 years. Now let's hear yours!"


+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:


Then perhaps you need a new pair of glasses, because everyone else on this blog sees him heading NW


Try comparing the last 2 sets of coordinates.

Then try responding with some actual science instead of personal attacks.
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2204. gator23
Quoting JLPR2:


Night!
Its creepy that Gaston the name that replaced Georges is forecast to have almost the same path, very eerie. XD

Gaston is forecast to effect the keys?
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2203. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:
Clearly Earl is moving NNNWNWNNWWNNWN


Clearly.
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Quoting amd:
Here are the bearings for Earl in the last 4 public advisories. Earl is slowly turning toward the north in the past 9 hours, but has not done so yet.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

Its trying...Thats a big puppy to steer
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
Touche'!
Quoting medicroc:

couple of questions
1. Who forced you onto this blog
2. Are you aware that each day more than 5,000,000 blogs and websites are created, more than enough for you to haunt in a lifetime. So why don't you GSWTFE(go somehwere the f--k else). Don't care if I get banned . Majority of people on here are good people , don't need to be disrespected like this.
Oh , and my training? Master's Degree Emergency And Disaster Management with portion of course spent traing in Isreal; wrote disaster plans for company with 137,000 employees in 44 countries; physician assistant 10 years; paramedic 20 years. Now let's hear yours!
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2200. bwat
Quoting Ryuujin:


Then perhaps you need a new pair of glasses, because everyone else on this blog sees him heading NW
I have too agree, go to the sat loop and turn off all the frames except the first and the last. look at the short term movment and that is nowhere near N or NNW.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
GASTON needs too be watch


Unfortunatly Gaston could impact the NE Caribbean as a major hurricane, only one week after Earl! Remember the Gray's team said this would be a hell of a season... looks like they were right
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Clearly Earl is moving NNNWNWNNWWNNWN


clearly
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Quoting FLdewey:
It's not THAT the wind bloweth... it's WHAT the wind bloweth.


when you got a yield sign through your spleen it dont matter how many push ups you did the night before!
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2194. ssmate
Quoting oracle28:


Or is it '0'? :)
Due N is O.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Cyclone Oz made it to Buxton with no problems or security stops. He's broadcasting live still:

http://7674u.com


I'm surprised. How'd he do it?
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Quoting medicroc:

couple of questions
1. Who forced you onto this blog
2. Are you aware that each day more than 5,000,000 blogs and websites are created, more than enough for you to haunt in a lifetime. So why don't you GSWTFE(go somehwere the f--k else). Don't care if I get banned . Majority of people on here are good people , don't need to be disrespected like this.
Oh , and my training? Master's Degree Emergency And Disaster Management with portion of course spent traing in Isreal; wrote disaster plans for company with 137,000 employees in 44 countries; physician assistant 10 years; paramedic 20 years. Now let's hear yours!
Agreed. It has always been said to listen to local authorities on this blog.
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
Looking at satellite imagery, Earl has definitely moved more to the NW than North. It looks more NW than NNW.

Just saying. Also, StormW and the radio show also confirmed this on air about the movement of Earl is more NW now than it was an hour or two ago.
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Quoting atmoaggie:


oops, link: http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168955.htm

Aww, dang, modify, not quote.
Agreed. I'm going to venture a guess as to why the subject of annular vs. non-annular is a continuing debate this evening: Steering. If a small continuation of relative movement brings a large shift in the possible landfall, then the creation of a path resistant to change is extremely relevant.
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2189. amd
Here are the bearings for Earl in the last 4 public advisories from the NHC. Earl is slowly turning toward the north in the past 9 hours, but has not done so yet.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:


.

Or North of PR.



Um, didn't the storm pass north of PR?

Some on this blog were saying E was going to hit Haiti as it was passing north of PR.
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Quoting leo305:


they expect it to start moving NNW eventually, so they kept it I guess


Hopefully it does...hopefully they aren't just going by the temporary wobble they saw. The 330 degree movement was when that wobble occurred.
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2183. JLPR2
Quoting kmanislander:
Well, two takeaways from the advisories:

1. Earl has probably peaked and will not make CAT 5 status.

2. Gaston forecasted to be at 16N and 54.5 W. Entry into the Caribbean on the cards and 65 W achievable South of 18N. The slow down in forward motion will allow the ridge to build back and force him West.

That's all for tonight. Back tomorrow.


Night!
Its creepy that Gaston the name that replaced Georges is forecast to have almost the same path, very eerie. XD
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2182. Ryuujin
double
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2181. Ryuujin
Quoting rwdobson:


I have been looking at the sat loops. It's obviously going mostly north.

And your personal attack is absurd and has no place on the blog.


Then perhaps you need a new pair of glasses, because everyone else on this blog sees him heading NW
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MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 59(62) 12(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 14(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
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Steering map clearly shows that Earl should indeed be moving NNW now. IMO, the possibility of a mainland NC landfall is slim to none, as Earl should be steered around the periphery of the high-pressure ridge and parallel the coast. I concur with the NHC cone. An OBX - Cape Cod landfall is definitely still in the potential equation, though.

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2178. angiest
Quoting Ryuujin:


Just like they've been correct when it was going to turn North of the Leeward islands right.

Or North of PR.

Or North well before it could threaten the CONUS right?

sigh
Yeah it's amazing.

The story Ch 13 in Houston just had from the GRIP mission showed the scientists on the plane talking about how surprised they were at the intensification of Earl today.

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Quoting Alockwr21:


ridiculous they are being this conservative for a strong Cat 4 storm
Agreed. I'm a realist..and there are probably a lot of folks sitting on their porches right now who are one wobble away from disaster. Scary stuff right now. I pray this thing doesn't pull a "near coast jog"
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Gaston appears to be the first candidate for a Caribbean tracker. I had not realized how far the 18z GFS shifted west with Gaston. If upper level conditions are favorable for him in the Caribbean, we all know the possibilities...

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2173. leo305
Quoting ncstorm:
He clearly said this was NOT a wobble, this Earl was turning..go on their website and watch the broadcast later..he did an illustration and everything pointing out the fact that Earl was turning now


it was moving NNW almost due north for a couple of hours earlier today, then it starting moving NW again as it began to strengthen, as of right now the movement on satellite has been basically NW
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Quoting Flyairbird:
Due north is 360


Or is it '0'? :)
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2171. Seastep
...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure wise Earl is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix of '07.
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Quoting acarty:
Well, this is an interesting problem for the Moderators.... I was in SW Florida (Bonita Springs) for Charlie, Florence, Jeannie, Wilma. It really really sucked but mainly because people did NOT pay attention to NHC forecasts...so there! All of the rest of you.........

Those of you "here casting" or "there casting" or saying the NHC doesn't agree with you, for the most part, are making crap up for whatever reasons are valid to you.

Most of you have no real training or technical knowledge but REAL PEOPLE die if they listen to your drivel. SO STOP IT!

Been there, done that.

If you have some training, state what it is and what you think and why you think it . It has been a long while for those of us in Maine and we are looking for some
guidance.. OTHERWISE, STFU!

couple of questions
1. Who forced you onto this blog
2. Are you aware that each day more than 5,000,000 blogs and websites are created, more than enough for you to haunt in a lifetime. So why don't you GSWTFE(go somehwere the f--k else). Don't care if I get banned . Majority of people on here are good people , don't need to be disrespected like this.
Oh , and my training? Master's Degree Emergency And Disaster Management with portion of course spent traing in Isreal; wrote disaster plans for company with 137,000 employees in 44 countries; physician assistant 10 years; paramedic 20 years. Now let's hear yours!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:
Why don't you use your own mind and think for yourself and look at the Sat Data and the other links instead of towing the company line. It's people like you that stay because they don't think for themselves and then are the first to cry out for help.


I have been looking at the sat loops. It's obviously going mostly north.

And your personal attack is absurd and has no place on the blog.
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2165. Ryuujin
Quoting fldude99:


I would trust the nhc..if they say it will turn north then i would put my trust in that..not what weatherman wannabees here say


Just like they've been correct when it was going to turn North of the Leeward islands right.

Or North of PR.

Or North well before it could threaten the CONUS right?

sigh
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Quoting leo305:


because the advisory says NNW


I said jog (nnw then nw either way thats not a north turn. NNW is still not a north turn!! If it turns north it goes away from land NNW it heads to land really very simple!!
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FEMA situation update for Earl Sept.1 more info FEMA.gov/situationupdates

FEMA Preparations and Response for Hurricane Earl
The National Response Coordination Center is activated to 24/7 operations and Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMATs) are moving to Region I and Region IV to prepare for possible impact by Hurricane Earl. FEMA Logistics is moving supplies including meals, water, generators and communications teams.

FEMA Region I Regional Response Coordination Center and the MERS Operations Center in Maynard, MA are operating from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Numerous Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMATs) from around the country are deployed throughout the region.

FEMA Region II Regional Response Coordination Center is operating from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Emergency Support Functions and the Defense Coordinating Element is activated until further notice. Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMATs) are deployed to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and another IMAT is on alert in New York. Defense Coordinating Officers and two Federal Coordinating Officers were sent to the Caribbean Area Division in advance of the storm. FEMA liaisons are working with local officials out of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Centers.

FEMA Region III Regional Response Coordination Center is operating from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. The Region has identified three IMAT teams to deploy as needed.

FEMA Region IV Regional Response Coordination Center is operating from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMATs) are deployed to North Carolina and an Incident Support Base is standing up in Ft. Bragg, NC.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp: Still here till the Good Lord or Mother Nature decide otherwise. Hope all has been good with you and yours.
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Quoting Ryuujin:
Why don't you use your own mind and think for yourself and look at the Sat Data and the other links instead of towing the company line. It's people like you that stay because they don't think for themselves and then are the first to cry out for help.
Quoting Ryuujin:
Why don't you use your own mind and think for yourself and look at the Sat Data and the other links instead of towing the company line. It's people like you that stay because they don't think for themselves and then are the first to cry out for help.
You know some of those mets could have earned C's..You know C's earn degrees...LOL
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
Oz has arrived to Cape Hatteras, in Buxton actually. no security or evacs or anything there
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2158. ncstorm
He clearly said this was NOT a wobble, this Earl was turning..go on their website and watch the broadcast later..he did an illustration and everything pointing out the fact that Earl was turning now
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2157. leo305
Quoting Alockwr21:


ridiculous they are being this conservative for a strong Cat 4 storm


they expect it to start moving NNW eventually, so they kept it I guess
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Quoting Ryuujin:
They're going by what the NHC is giving them, which is NNW. Which was correct (in a wobble) about 2 hours ago. Look at the link I posted up a bit and tell me if that's N or NNW. It's not. It's fairly clearly NW, and maybe a SHADE N of NW, by no means is it N.
Due north is 360
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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