Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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For now I think it is something innocent but then in the back of all our minds..."when is the next reallllyyy bad storm going to find land"...so each name can dredge up those thoughts...staying hopeful here for now...in FL....
Better then you!
Wow Taz, how are you almost up to 90,000 comments? You just might get your goal of 100,000 by the end of the week!
sigh....
they never said 50' waves to shore
Do you guys not see what he is doing he is trying to scare people into evac the area beacuse you never know what might happen. Plus he is very excited beacuse it is his first real storm of the season (I know that is no excuse to act like this but he is just trying to get people to prepare ffor the worst).
It has also definitely showed some strengthening as the eye is becoming much clearer.
Hi-Res IR Imagery of Earl
I'm sure they need the ratings.
I have been in waves in excess of 80ft, and they get bigger then that.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT.
well I meant in a situation like the one right now
That's a nice northern turn then.
He does get carried away...add Stephanie Abrams(sp?), and they both need a shot of 7 and 7.
I agree 100% - I noticed this on the sat link that Ike put up> IMO, it is still NW/NNW and the eye is temporarily making it seem due north
Strengthen.
That's where I saw it. I'm probably off on the 73.2W.
Eh - I'd be more concerned with your Air Quality Alert. LOL
From what I understand, no. I work off of 25th street in a cargo building augmenting ASOS (piece of junk). We are supposed to shut down as soon as winds get to 50mph sustained.
yup any ways i have noteed Earl eye is march better in the last few loops
50 foot waves making it onshore is crazy.
LOL- Agreed! haha
Ike,
How acurate do you think you can determine the exact COC... Can you really determine it to within a tenth as you are noting...This is not a smart a$% question...I want to know how you do it?
I was thinking that... but was afraid to be on the right train of thought because I didn't like where it was going.
Retired Canadian Navy, Hecate Straits in excess of 80ft (winter storm) and the South China Sea during a Typhoon.
I think I am, it's ridiculous.
it's more like 72.9W to 73.9W
and 25.2N to 26.8N
also looking stronger
50 foot waves can happen. They've happened in the GOM with Ivan.
Canadian navy does not have... significant ships... it was a Frigate.
pwned
This isn't 2012.
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