Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.

A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.

>
Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.

Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.

Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.

All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.


Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.

Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.


Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.

TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1823. MIKEYZ
2:40 AM GMT on September 02, 2010
Did I just see 929 mb?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
1822. thelmores
1:52 AM GMT on September 02, 2010
I don't know if Earl is a Cat 5 or not....... but it Damed sure looks like it!!!!!

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1821. thelmores
1:30 AM GMT on September 02, 2010
Time: 01:14:30Z
Coordinates: 27.3833N 73.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 736.5 mb (~ 21.75 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,076 meters (~ 6,811 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 930.2 mb (~ 27.47 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 127° at 15 knots (From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 21.3°C (~ 70.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.9°C (~ 60.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1820. pottery
12:07 AM GMT on September 02, 2010
Greetings all.
Been away from the blog for a couple days (in the Mountains - rain at mid-day and nice evenings).

See some activity has happened (have a nephew in St.Kitts so he kept me up-to-date as Earl passed through), and more activity is coming again.
As expected!

That wave now leaving Africa looks like a potential TS, and Gaston looks to be more Bad weather for the Leewards....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24912
1819. MahFL
11:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Earl is moving North ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
1818. AustinTXWeather
11:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Test 1233.. blog appears to have stopped..
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
1817. alcomat
10:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
looking at the latest rainbow loop I sure dont see a NW motion.a true NW motion would have this storm going into SC, but the NNW,to N,motion is easy to see. Earl may be starting his northerly turn after all.imo,the carolinas can possibly breathe a little easier,but need to see the next loop update to be sure...
Member Since: August 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1816. Hou77083
10:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?

This is a test, only a test of the.... :)
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
1815. Sunglasses
10:18 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
I am a newbie to this site and i have been listening carefully, and following Earl since it became a TD, to the official NHC models and also to the unofficial but credible online forecasters.

The official view always seems to voice a "careful not to panic approach" but hey if we get it wrong then ........."

The voices here are "saying it" as they "see" it and yes debate, conjecture,and guesswork are part of the discussions.

I always believe in being honest and open in my words.3 days ago i said Earl would hit the east coast and today i still believe that to be true and i definately do not,and did not then, WISH that to happen.
The official word has gone from "will not hit" to "near miss" to "still too far out to say for certain" to "evacuation of near coast islands" to " declaring a state of emergency" in NC.whats next??

I for one hope and pray that the "experts" have got it absolutely right but on the evidence so far provided seems they are guessing and hoping just like us amateurs.

Member Since: August 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1814. alcomat
10:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
Jim Cantore was just ranting on TWC because not enough people are taking Earl seriously.


It looks like a lot of people are just sitting around waiting to decide tomorrow, and they don't realize how big Earl is or how fast Earl is going to be moving NW by morning.



Then when they get family members killed or loss of property, they are gonna blame TWC, NHC and the media for allegedly "not informing them".

There are a lot of houses behind Jim Cantore that show no evidence of preparations at all. No boards/shutters, and stuff just sitting around in the yard...a few dozen yards off the water...
did the goofus have his aviator goggles on? was he saying [the wind is really starting to pick up] he is the king of hype !! lol
Member Since: August 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1813. NOSinger
10:02 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Did the blog stop??
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
1812. PcolaDan
9:54 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
NEW BLOG STARTED 20 MINUTES AGO PEOPLE
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1811. aasmith26
9:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting Relix:


Earl: Aiming at EC. If it passes 75W then it's game time. Hope people prepare well.


Yikes. If it passes 75W, i'm heading for the hills. I'm just north of Yorktown, VA.



Member Since: June 30, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 229
1809. alcomat
9:49 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Troll. Ignored.
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:


And if my grandmother had you know what she be my grandfather =}
seems like you florida wishcasters are getting a little defensive, when the word texas is brought up..oh I forgot,canes only hit florida..
Member Since: August 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1808. CaicosRetiredSailor
9:48 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
StormW

...are we finished with the Pre-Game show yet?

(Are we there yet Dad?)

CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
1807. charlestonscnanny
9:47 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting groundgirl:
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


After that one I just had to log in, missed you all, I've been reading the various explanations and "funnies" to husband while watching Earl and the rest of the African train chug in......

Me too. I started getting "the funnies" reading some of the comments, especially people who are staying on the beach. It's not worth it ppl....I was 15 miles inland with Hugo and we had pine tree missles flying all around even without the stormm surge. Don't stay on the beach!!!!!
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
1806. Titoxd
9:47 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
000
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1804. Titoxd
9:45 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
000
WTNT44 KNHC 012042
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CSU
INDICATING 50 KT AND 37 KT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT...MAKING GASTON THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM
OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR GASTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION OF
GASTON...WITH THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE LGEM SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AN AMSR-E PASS AT 1613 UTC HELPED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 280/13. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GASTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOW
DOWN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD IN A FEW DAYS AND STEER THE
TROPICAL STORM AT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER RATE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAT MOST OF THEM ARE INITIALIZING THE STORM...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 12.9N 37.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 38.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.4N 39.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 13.7N 41.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 45.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 15.5N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 54.5W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1803. palmasdelrio
9:43 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting Relix:
Earl: Aiming at EC. If it passes 75W then it's game time. Hope people prepare well.

Gaston: Taking aim at Puerto Rico and the caribbean and I believe this could be the first major to impact PR since 1998. All pieces are finally in position for us to get it.


I hope you're wrong. But it looks that way at this moment.
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
1802. usa777
9:42 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Anyone that stays in warned area's are insane. Speaking from experience I was one of those idiots that decided I would be ok because the locals said "we will be fine", the storms always turn. Well anyone considering staying need's to take a look at the aftermath pics of Bay St Louis Miss after Katrina. This isnt a cat 1 with 78 mph winds. This thing is a dangerous cat 4 storm that will kill you. You know come to think of it..Id get the hell out in a cat 1 too.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
1801. unf97
9:41 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting RadarRich:
Earl is a very strong Storm. Watching and waiting for what he will do in the days ahead is obviously the hardest part. We see the cone, we see the models, we hear opinions on this Blog, as well as our Weather Experts in each city/state where we all live. No one is perfect in forcasting excactly where Earl will eventually end up as far as a landfall. IN MY OPINION, and it is just that, an opinion. The Longitude of 75W is a significant point in the next 24 hours. If Earl does go past 75W by 1 degree, or even .5 a degree, then the implications of an East coast hit are increased significantly, no matter if he does turn North, then Northeast after that. 75W is the key!! Let's hope he stays East of 75W. Stay safe all in the cone.


Well stated. I emphasized the 75W point in a post awhile ago myself. Any distance Earl travels past 75W before the recurve spells trouble for the NC Outer Banks north and northeastward in terms of even a possible landfall, especially the Outer Banks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1800. Dakster
9:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


I was hoping you could tell us....

Is the setup for Gaston the same as for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona? (It doesn't look like it to me.... But want you opinion)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10804
1799. xcool
9:39 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
blog new
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1797. xcool
9:39 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
new blog blog
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1796. HurricaneGeek
9:39 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Did Fay landfall in FL 5 times? jajaja
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1795. xcool
9:38 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
newwwwwwwwwwwwwww blog blog
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1794. RadarRich
9:38 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Earl is a very strong Storm. Watching and waiting for what he will do in the days ahead is obviously the hardest part. We see the cone, we see the models, we hear opinions on this Blog, as well as our Weather Experts in each city/state where we all live. No one is perfect in forcasting excactly where Earl will eventually end up as far as a landfall. IN MY OPINION, and it is just that, an opinion. The Longitude of 75W is a significant point in the next 24 hours. If Earl does go past 75W by 1 degree, or even .5 a degree, then the implications of an East coast hit are increased significantly, no matter if he does turn North, then Northeast after that. 75W is the key!! Let's hope he stays East of 75W. Stay safe all in the cone.
Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
1793. Kristina40
9:38 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
How large a surge is Earl pushing? If it hits just below Chesapeake won't it push the surge up towards DC?
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
1791. ElConando
9:38 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting unf97:


We shall see. Fiona was also expected to be ripped to shreads by Earl , but looked what happened in the past 24 hours. She had a mind of her own, slowed down, and actually got stronger.

My point is that Fiona has played some tricks on us already, so I am not discounting anything about her future for sure.


I guess so.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1790. HurricaneGeek
9:37 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
You guys know there's a new blog, right?
=)
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1789. unf97
9:37 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting ElConando:
1773. Projected to Dissipate in 4 days. It will do so slowly.


We shall see. Fiona was also expected to be ripped to shreads by Earl , but looked what happened in the past 24 hours. She had a mind of her own, slowed down, and actually got stronger.

My point is that Fiona has played some tricks on us already, so I am not discounting anything about her future for sure.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1788. Baybuddy
9:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Cape Cod & The Islands!
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
1787. TexasHurricane
9:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1785. a747drvr
9:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Link
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1784. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
remember ike a cat 2 storm with a cat 4 surge

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1783. o22sail
9:35 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Direct Hit:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.

...does expansion of the wind-field, often seen at higher latitudes, change these distances???
That sounded pretty concrete...just wondering.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1782. Chapelhill
9:35 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting spdmom:
Having lived in Nags Head in OBX this past winter and summer, we saw MUCH damage, just from the low depressions.. THERE IS NOTHING LEFT to take the impact of any storm, let alone this Earl. There is no wide beach, and no dunes to stop flooding....


Yea, I hear ya. It does not take much to get washover, and the dunes have really taken a beating recently. I fear that even a close miss will take some beachfront property.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
1781. atmoaggie
9:34 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Look, I see a disturbing number of queries in the way of should I stay or leave, will this place or that place be spared, etc.

This blog, though some do have real qualifications to answer the question, is not the place you should be with questions like those.

Even with considerable the experience and knowledge about hurricanes that we may collectively have on hand, we don't know the elevation of the land around you. We don't know the elevation of the floor of your residence. We don't know the elevation of the roads around you and/or if you would like to be on your own, with no emergency services for an extended period of time. [this could go on and on]

We can say that, outside of OBX, there haven't been any other evacuations called for (as far as I know). No one city or area, especially cities well inland, is under the threat of complete devastation from Earl. His damage will be in a pick and choose fashion. He will probably erode enough beach under a few houses to topple them (every NC cane does) and little else. But, some of the lower places from OBX to VA Beach *could* get some floodwaters.

If you still don't know if you should be where you are, it's high time to pay attention to what your local emergency managers are saying. They know your area. Expect that no one in a weather blog has the combination of skills, local knowledge, and trustworthiness that you really need and ignore those that tell you otherwise.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1780. a747drvr
9:34 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Let's see how this works.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1779. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and donot depict final outcome of any one single event things can and will change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1778. leo305
9:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Very very sad..

nobody is boarding up in the north east or cape hateras...

they don't beleive anything is going to happen
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1777. ElConando
9:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
1773. Projected to Dissipate in 4 days. It will do so slowly.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1776. groundgirl
9:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


After that one I just had to log in, missed you all, I've been reading the various explanations and "funnies" to husband while watching Earl and the rest of the African train chug in......
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1775. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
remember a hurricane can strip clean everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and water
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1774. AstroHurricane001
9:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting wxvoyeur:


Right at the border, so very close to Seoul.




In 2000, a typhoon made landfall on the North/South Korea border, killing 46 people and causing $6 billion USD in damage.

Kompasu about to make landfall:
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
1773. unf97
9:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Quoting FFtrombi:
Just want to point out to everyone that even though the excitement is about Earl and Gaston at the moment, Fiona is strengthening and the thunderstorm area is growing, looks to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. No clue on the steering with Earl smashing into the ridge, but one to watch, worry about Gaston later when it's closer to the caribbean.


Yeah, you beat me to it. Fiona is just below hurricane strength now, 997 mb at the latest advisory. This storm has been both tenacious and very tricky to analyze. It seems that Fiona is working very hard to remain a seperate entity. If Earl continues to get farther way from her, lots of variables would still be into play in terms of the long range forecast. We definitely have to pay attention to Fiona if she can continue to maintain her own over the next few days.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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