Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.

A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.

>
Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.

Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.

Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.

All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.


Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.

Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.


Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.

TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
NHC is gonna have to shift the track of earl a bit more to the west.


I agree Drak. Earl is developing nicely today and could be a category four hurricane by the 5 or 11pm advisories.
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1472. Jax82
Earl has traveled south and west of the "middle of the cone" for almost his entire life. I dont think he will follow the 'middle of the cone' from here on out but probably always be slightly 'west' of that. He has tricked a lot of the forecasters so far as in almost every advisory seems to move farther west. I hope he starts his curve soon, the outer banks are beautiful and i would hate to see them deal with a powerful hurricane.

Being in NE FL, its crazy to see how close this monster is to us just on the satellite images. He isn't that far away.
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can someone please shed some light on what is causing Gaston to recurve sometime next week?
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Quoting Drakoen:
NHC is gonna have to shift the track of earl a bit more to the west.


Coming from you that is not good.....

No offense. LOL
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Quoting Drakoen:
NHC is gonna have to shift the track of earl a bit more to the west.
ICk...How far do you think?
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Quoting Chapelhill:


This was Fran on Sept. 5, 1996. It was the last cat4 to hit the East coast of the US.




Fran was quite a storm. I remember that it did not recurve as was predicted... Just had it in for Raleigh. I lived in Durham at the time and we were out of power for over a week. It is the nightmare scenario we here inland are always on the lookout for... All are pretty confident Earl will recurve... I hope all are right!
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1466. ncstorm
Quoting Chapelhill:


This was Fran on Sept. 5, 1996. It was the last cat4 to hit the East coast of the US.





Fran was a Cat 3 when it made landfall..NC hasnt had a Cat 4 since hazel
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Fran peaked as a category 3 though?


I stand corrected... you are right.The minimum central pressure dropped to 946 mb and maximum sustained surface winds reached 105 knots.
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With Hurricane Warnings In Effect For Parts Of The East Coast, FEMA Urges All Residents To Be Prepared


Link
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Quoting alfabob:
Fiona went north and her convection is heading towards PR and VI.
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Quoting aspectre:
FloridaHeat "I was reading online about some agency that tells how much damage in dollars and how many people will be affected by each storm has. That analysis been done for earl also how many are estimated to die from earl"
879 pilotguy1 "And this serves what purpose?"

Cash on hand. If insurance companies made their money on premiums payed by policy holders, either those premiums would be a LOT higher or the companies would go bankrupt... quite possibly before making full payouts to policyholders victimized by a hurricane, or other large scale disaster.

Insurers make their money by betting in the stock and bond and commodity markets. While those holdings look good on paper, they're not particularly liquid or fungible. ie They hafta be sold to raise cash, or used as collateral against interest-costing loans.

Having low cash reserves is fine when dealin' with individual accidents or extremely localized calamities, eg auto accidents or tornadoes. Selling off one or ten or even maybe up to 100 million dollars worth of stocks or bonds or commodity contracts won't cause any noticible drop in prices offered.

With a major hurricane or other large scale disaster, insurers can be liable for BILLIONS of dollars.
And trying to sell billions in paper wealth within a short period of time in exchange for cash does cause drops in prices offered... often large drops cuz the buyers know ya must sell to meet your obligations and you are competing with other insurers to obtain cash.
Similarly financial paper-collateralized loans: bankers can charge a lot more interest when they know ya ain't got other options, at least not good ones.

So an insurance company needs to keep enough cash on hand to settle their immediate obligations: eg food, housing, unemployment compensation, hospitalization costs, death benefits, pay for extra claims adjusters, etc.
Knowing a range of probable damage costs, even short term, allows time to sell paper assets more slowly instead of having to dump them all at once. Allows one to deposit cash in banks, collecting interest instead of paying excess interest, and to negotiate more favorable terms in exchange for the banks gettin' to hold your money until ya need it.
Absolutely, in this market sensitive environment , timing can be all of the difference. That could be why the market jumped today.
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1461. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST September 2 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 16.3N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots
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It's weird but most are assuming that this is not going to hit the coast. That it will be close to the shore, but miss. My question than to someone who might know, "Comparing last night 8pm advisory to the current position of the system reveals two things. The storm is slightly west and hours ahead of schedule (2am is when the storm was projected to be at 75W, this most likely will happen between 9-10pm). The front that was going to turn it seems to be slower to form. If the turn is based on timing of the front and the storm is several hours ahead of schedule, won't it be further west before the turn?"
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1459. angiest
Quoting Drakoen:
NHC is gonna have to shift the track of earl a bit more to the west.


The needle keeps jumping back.

Goodness, a lot of the kids on here have probably never experienced a record player needle.
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1458. wjdow
Quoting unruly:
racecasting

stupidcasting
and now

deathcasting

some of the peeps on here are giving some of us newbies a bad impression


no way to stop it, you just have to sort through it all to find the information you're looking for. except for dr. m. and a few other mets, this is a social space as much as a serious blog on the tropics, best to maintain a sense of humor
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Quoting carlos1993:


Do you think Gaston will pose a threat to the Caribbean, specially PR? I know it is many days away, but what are your thoughts. Thanks
Their is a possiblity that Gaston could track into the carribean,due to it being further south.
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Quoting Floodman:


LOL...I haven't heard a word out of the "it'll never get as active as they predict" crowd for a couple of days now...


Floodman~~ good evening. So what cha think about earl. You think the worse of it is gonna stay off the coast? I am just wondering, been put on standby and just really don't know what to think. I don't even know or haven't heard when it might hit or get up there. I really hope it goes out to sea so these folks up north don't have to go thru a mess.
sheri
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Quoting Trollcaster:
NHC forecast point for Earl tomorrow morning at 08:00 is 75W 30N. Presently, he is approximately 295mi. SSE of that position, moving NW. He'll need to develop a far more Northerly component to his current heading soon to make that forecast point. With Earl accelerating, and the trough tilting and not looking like it will turn him appreciably by tomorrow morning, what factors are present that could cause Earl to gain that more Northerly component to his motion?

I have attached below a Great Circle Mapper image indicating the straight-line path from Earl's present position (I eyeballed roughly 73W, 26.1N from a recent satellite shot) to tomorrow's 08:00 NHC forecast point:



Even if he went due north with your projection hed smack NYC head on ...LOL
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1452. Drakoen
NHC is gonna have to shift the track of earl a bit more to the west.
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hey wxgeek nice avatar of dolly i was a part of it
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1449. angiest
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Man, Earl is HUGE!!!


As I noted earlier, south Florida seems to be getting showers related to his overall circulation, despite there being no bands visible to Miami radar.
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1448. scCane
Quoting Drakoen:


It is too far out to say what the system will do and long-range computer model forecast tracks have been poor...as usual. It is best to just watch the teleconnections and trends on the models.
Ok thanks and for post 1430 Fran was a Cat. 3 at landfall. The most furthest north land-falling cat. 4 hurricane award belongs to Hugo.
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1446. angiest
Quoting Vero1:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtm l#DANGER

The 3-day forecast track of each active tropical cyclone is depicted along with a shaded "danger" region, or area of avoidance. The danger area is determined by adding 100, 200, and 300 nautical miles to the tropical storm force radii (34 knots) at the 24-, 48-, and 72-hour forecast positions, respectively (hence the Mariner's 1-2-3 rule). Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest forecasts and advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours


Hence, the cone is a fixed size for any given period out from "now."

The NHC may, in its discussion, state that there is a lower than normal confidence in the forecast. The target audience of the discussion is other METs, whose job it would be to disseminate that information to members of the public.
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FloridaHeat "I was reading online about some agency that tells how much damage in dollars and how many people will be affected by each storm has. That analysis been done for earl also how many are estimated to die from earl"
879 pilotguy1 "And this serves what purpose?"

Cash on hand. If insurance companies made their money on premiums payed by policy holders, either those premiums would be a LOT higher or the companies would go bankrupt... quite possibly before making full payouts to policyholders victimized by a hurricane or other large scale disaster.

Insurers make their money by betting in the stock and bond and commodity markets. While those holdings look good on paper, they're not particularly liquid or fungible. ie They hafta be sold to raise cash, or used as collateral against interest-costing loans.

Having low cash reserves is fine when dealin' with individual accidents or extremely localized calamities, eg auto accidents or tornadoes. Selling off one or ten or even maybe up to 100 million dollars worth of stocks or bonds or commodity contracts won't cause any noticible drop in prices offered.

With a major hurricane or other large scale disaster, insurers can be liable for BILLIONS of dollars.
And trying to sell billions in paper wealth within a short period of time in exchange for cash does cause drops in prices offered... often large drops cuz the buyers know ya must sell to meet your obligations and you are competing with other insurers to obtain cash.
Similarly financial paper-collateralized loans: bankers can charge a lot more interest when they know ya ain't got other options, at least not good ones.

So an insurance company needs to keep enough cash on hand to settle their immediate obligations: eg food, housing, unemployment compensation, hospitalization costs, death benefits, pay for extra claims adjusters, etc.
Knowing a range of probable damage costs -- having a longer lead time to sell assets, even short term -- allows time to sell paper assets more slowly instead of having to dump them all at once. Allows one to deposit cash in banks, collecting interest instead of paying excess interest, and to pre-negotiate more favorable terms in exchange for letting the bank use your money to make themselves money until ya need it for payouts.
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1444. unruly
Quoting washingtonian115:
The three letter troll gave newbies,a bad look.........
I will check back in a while
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Quoting Chapelhill:


This was Fran on Sept. 5, 1996. It was the last cat4 to hit the East coast of the US.





Fran peaked as a category 3 though?
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NHC forecast point for Earl tomorrow morning at 08:00 is 75W 30N. Presently, he is approximately 295mi. SSE of that position, moving NW. He'll need to develop a far more Northerly component to his current heading soon to make that forecast point. With Earl accelerating, and the trough tilting and not looking like it will turn him appreciably by tomorrow morning, what factors are present that could cause Earl to gain that more Northerly component to his motion?

I have attached below a Great Circle Mapper image indicating the straight-line path from Earl's present position (I eyeballed roughly 73W, 26.1N from a recent satellite shot) to tomorrow's 08:00 NHC forecast point:

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Man, Earl is HUGE!!!
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Quoting carlos1993:


Do you think Gaston will pose a threat to the Caribbean, specially PR? I know it is many days away, but what are your thoughts. Thanks


it could, I would keep my eyes peeled for this one, watch and see. It is still 5-7 days away and a lot can change in that time
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
MSLP and Low/Mid winds

this is going to be completely ridiculous.

I think the models really are blowing this forecast.

It looks like the 1012mb and 1014mb lines have Earl as they are still sticking around and perpendicular to the florida coast, while the 1016 and 1018mb lines are into Georgia and SC.

this is going to rotate around some more through time, but the storm is moving so fast now and continuing to accelerate.

The ridge really needed to break towards the east, and it simply refuses to do so. It's still breaking right on the Florida/Georgia border.
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click image for loop

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Quoting reedzonemyhero:
The darn trough (front) is stationary right over my house in Wisconsin. Still supposed to be 80 tomorrow before the trough moves through!


Heres the through due here in Columbus Ohio on Late thursday night/ FRI AM it wont be out of here til FRI afternoon. It will be a very close shave for the coasts.



FXUS61 KILN 011921
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
321 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...USHERING IN A FALL LIKE AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN MAKING A SLOW EASTWARD
PUSH THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL THOUGH SO THINK ANY
THUNDER WOULD BE RATHER LIMITED. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S BUT SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT MORE
THERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST AND WITH SOME SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING UP
THERE...WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
POPS ACROSS REMAINDER OF FA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND ONCE AGAIN INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE MARGINAL. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON PCPN/CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING OF FRONT. FOR NOW WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM MID 70S
NORTHWEST TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


atcf says we have Gaston


Do you think Gaston will pose a threat to the Caribbean, specially PR? I know it is many days away, but what are your thoughts. Thanks
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Could td9 /gaston pose a threat to florida?? From what I have saw on the models it doesnt seem to recurve??
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1434. Drakoen
Quoting scCane:

So Drakoen, future Gaston looks to be a fish also any thoughts on it?


It is too far out to say what the system will do and long-range computer model forecast tracks have been poor...as usual. It is best to just watch the teleconnections and trends on the models.
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At present speed, Earl looks to be crossing 75W in about 5 hours at NW. At which time if the delayed and a little weakend trough dosent reach it to turn it by than, hard to see a hook to the east happening fast enough to avoide a outter banks bulls eye.. thoughts?
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And the race is on...and here comes Earl up the back-stretch...the trough is moving to the inside...the east coast is watching close...hoping Earl don't make landfall! :)

This race to the coast is pretty intense. I'm routing for the trough to carry Earl away. No matter what, be prepared. Prayers from the Gulf Coast of Mississippi.





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Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
fran was supposed to make a sharp right turn right at the coast too, i think because of a trough, but i forget the details. fran didn't turn until lake erie.


This was Fran on Sept. 5, 1996. It was the last cat4 to hit the East coast of the US.



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Just to give some perspective to #'s for the season Frances made landfall labor day weekend 2004 and they had 15 storms that season. I think 15-17 is a reasonable # considering we're going to La Nina and not coming out of one.
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Quoting unruly:
racecasting

stupidcasting
and now

deathcasting

some of the peeps on here are giving some of us newbies a bad impression
The three letter troll gave newbies,a bad look.........
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1427. scCane
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. Looks like we are into the storm-after-storm period now.

So Drakoen, future Gaston looks to be a fish also any thoughts on it?
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1426. alfabob
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Quoting Plibster:


I am right on the Nc/SC line (Little River,SC). I am keeping an eye on Earl and this blog for any other info I can get. I don't trust these local weather guys. I know I will get great info from "certain" folks on here and NHC.


hi, I'm keeping an eye out in NMB currently, howdy Myrtle folks.
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so u saying the front will get there too late to turn earl north?
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I have only been a member for a few short weeks,but I would like to reiterate what alot of the experts are suggesting you do. You have time now. If they are asking you to leave or evacuate do so. I live in South Florida and I am a member of the SERT and EDICS region team. I have seen the aftermath of Charlie, Wilma, Frances, and was deployed to Gulfport Mississippi after Katrina. As been said here in the past and today be ready to leave when they ask you to. I dont want to scare people but this storm is big and has alot of power in it. The tidal surge is what will cause major problems. The Governor of North Carolina has just issued a State of Emergency for the entire state pay attention. I am not a weather guy(Leave that to Storm,Ike etc)but I ave lived here in South Florida for 41 of my 42 years and I am very interested in these storms. Take Care and be safe.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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