Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.

A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.

>
Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.

Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.

Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.

All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.


Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.

Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.


Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.

TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1123. xcool
btwntx08 ookay rob
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting acarty:
Some seriously higher wind readings from the Hurricane Hunters in both Earl and Fiona. The Google Earth Recon plug-in is amazing.

Do you have a link to the plug-in download?
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1121. Patrap
The forecasst delimma is that the CONUS trof is going negatively tilted,Ne to Sw at a greater amplified rate ,thus allowing for a more westward track,maybe as well as the increase in forward speed.

So things can and will Likely change and once again I urge all interest to stay up on Earl and his Forecast
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1120. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON KOMPASU (T1007)
3:00 AM JST September 2 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Yellow Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Kompasu (975 hPa) located at 36.0N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 17 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 40.9N 132.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 41.8N 141.8E - EXTRATROPICAL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CoopsWife:
1027 - Pat - ran from Hug at the last minute, ran from Andrew (which missed mobile). Back to Charleston 3 days later - should have stayed gone a lot longer, LOL. Navy keeps us in hurricane zones, I keep a go bag! :)

And for those who think I am silly to plan for an out of town break - wait until YOU cook on a hibachi for 3 weeks!


I agree...we were out for 2 weeks after Ike..and 3 weeks after Rita...please be prepared for an extended time away from home. Electrical outages, no gas anywhere for a generator, the heat is awful, the mosquitos will each you alive. It is no vacation!!
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Looks like Earl might be moving a little West of NW at this time.
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Hey Long beach..are you there now?

I am from that area...;lived near Long Beach High and born there

Quoting LongBeachNY:



SWWWWWEEEEEEETTTT im going to Florida next week!!!

And I live on A barrier island on Long Island...

Earl and Gaston for me!
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1115. unf97
Earl's eye now sitting on 73W longitude.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Patrap:
A very Healthy Hurricane Earl in the latest Rainbow Image.





looks like its getting close to florida and it hasnt turned fully yet....
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1113. angiest
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This is funny. It's a funny time.


"And every last inch of [him]'s covered in hair!"

Ahh good times. Loved the music in Beauty and the Beast.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1111. Thaale
Quoting angiest:


GFDL and HWRF have a very large spread on Gaston, with HWRF staying south (southern Leewards) and GFDL being more north (northern Leewards). Hopefully they will actually latch on to this storm quickly, as that difference in tracks has drastic implications for Gaston's ultimate destination.


Do you think a fast development from 98L to TD9 to (possibly soon) Gaston would make the northern scenarios more likely?
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Quoting Asta:

If Earl comes to visit..
One word of advice from NOLA-
Evacuate.


Let's hope that doesn't happen this time. I guess Nauset Beach will never get stairs again after this one!! I know all the places you mentioned very well...hoping for the best
Quoting Asta:

If Earl comes to visit..
One word of advice from NOLA-
Evacuate.


I know all the areas you mentioned very well. I too noticed the Chatham break last week and even if the storm doesn't come up thru the bays...that area could still get hit hard. The National Seashore there is fragile and oh so beautiful. I've sat at Race Point for hours just looking out over the ocean...stay safe ok?
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Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


You get an A. Stay safe in VA Beach


thanks we are supplyed and ready to ride it out
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6598
Quoting btwntx08:
yesterday at 2pm two 98L was at a 10% chance now 25 hrs later its a ts wow



98L went from 10% then 20% back down too 10% the it jump too 50% then 80% then a TD 9 then now a new name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting RitaEvac:
Not looking good Pat for folks up there, its current speed and direction is pointing to something significant


I really feel for them, it's very surreal to watch someone else living the stress of planning an evacuation and prepping for a storm. The stress of the not knowing is horrible when you're going through it. Hang in there Eastcoasties, we're wishcasting that it stays away from ya'll.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I think the SE US and the GOM need to watch Gaston. Gaston should continue west or wnw probably all the way to the US.


Exactly...hence Stormw's assertions towards the pattern change that is going to occur while Gaston is out there that Fiona is beginning to feel. At least in the current model trend towards Fiona and some of the ideas coming out of the NHC about the possibilities with Fiona.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Roger that, Patrap. Go bags are packed just in case it veers left towards VaBeach. Back road maps planned out, and I can get 100 miles NW in 2.5 hours or so without resorting to the interstate. I son't think we will have to leave, but I can get out the door in 15 minutes if need be. If I don't have to leave, well, I can iron those shirts again, no problem!

Good idea. IMO, I would get some rest now, and check the 2am advisory. If its bad... get out before everyone else does. How close are you to the shore, and what elevation are you at?
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1101. 900MB
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


GA 1987.

We have sweltered enough.


Extract from the Jacksonville wx discussion this morning:

.CLIMATE...
AUGUST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RAN ABOUT 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
IS QUITE REMARKABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER. GAINESVILLE AND ST
SIMONS ISLAND BOTH RECORDED THEIR HOTTEST AUGUST ON RECORD
...WHILE
ALMA WAS THE SECOND HOTTEST (RECORD IN 1995)...AND JACKSONVILLE
WAS THE FOURTH HOTTEST ON RECORD (SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1871)...AND THIS WAS JACKSONVILLE`S HOTTEST AUGUST SINCE 1954.

SINCE MAY 1ST...THE PAST 4 MONTHS...HAVE BEEN THE WARMEST ON
RECORD AT BOTH ALMA AND GAINESVILLE AND HAVE BEEN THE SECOND
WARMEST AT BOTH JACKSONVILLE AND ST SIMONS ISLAND.


I think on Friday we may set a new record monthly high for September. Our monthly record is surprisingly low, 97.


NYC recorded hottest summer ever, 77.8 degrees on average and 35 days so far over 90 degrees.

St. Simons- can you give me a brief recap of what has happened over the past few hours. I've been away from the computer. How is Montauk looking now, better or worse than 11am? Thx, Andrew
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1100. Patrap
Dvorak
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting CoopsWife:


Negative, negative - around the town roads to Surrey, pick up 460 there and run like 'h' oh, scuse me, like the wind. Depending on forecast, I may stop at Bear Creek or keep going to Smith Mt Lake.


ahh interesting, we go south to 17, then stay on that might hit some on the james river but after that its smooth sailing up to fredsricksburg
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6598
1097. angiest
Quoting 900MB:


True, but problem is that between the gulf stream coming up within 200 miles of Long Island and SSTs of 27 degrees or high just 50 miles off Long Island, the cool SSTs do not start until you pass Long Island.


And by then he may be racing and won't have time to do much weakening.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1096. Patrap
N. Carolina Gov, enacts a State of Emergency.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1095. xcool
btwntx08 not 98l . td9
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1094. Engine2
NOGAPS not good
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2010090112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
1093. Halyn
Quoting CoopsWife:
1027 - Pat - ran from Hug at the last minute, ran from Andrew (which missed mobile). Back to Charleston 3 days later - should have stayed gone a lot longer, LOL. Navy keeps us in hurricane zones, I keep a go bag! :)

And for those who think I am silly to plan for an out of town break - wait until YOU cook on a hibachi for 3 weeks!


My geography is lousy .. but am trying to get friends on Long Island to open their eyes .. what should I tell someone who writes this and lives on Long Island ?
"Earl is just suppose to skirt our area- maybe winds in the 50's and about 4 " of rain- no big deal. Thanks for the info. All movable objects are put away, Remember we are use to these storms- Some of our Noreasteners are worse than the canes. "

.. and they are old ladies .. like me!
Member Since: August 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1092. hydrus
Quoting extreme236:
GFS forecasts another TC to develop in 96 hours out in the eastern Atlantic. And so it continues...
I saw it too..If this were to keep up, the waves will have some cooler water instead of the warm stuff.
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http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
CHIPS has Earl 150 knots! Oh my!
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Not looking good Pat for folks up there, its current speed and direction is pointing to something significant
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GFS forecasts a third TC to form in 144 hours right after the second one.
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1088. Patrap
N. Carolina Gubna' doing LIVE PC now
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1087. unf97
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


GA 1987.

We have sweltered enough.


Extract from the Jacksonville wx discussion this morning:

.CLIMATE...
AUGUST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RAN ABOUT 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
IS QUITE REMARKABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER. GAINESVILLE AND ST
SIMONS ISLAND BOTH RECORDED THEIR HOTTEST AUGUST ON RECORD...WHILE
ALMA WAS THE SECOND HOTTEST (RECORD IN 1995)...AND JACKSONVILLE
WAS THE FOURTH HOTTEST ON RECORD (SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1871)...AND THIS WAS JACKSONVILLE`S HOTTEST AUGUST SINCE 1954.

SINCE MAY 1ST...THE PAST 4 MONTHS...HAVE BEEN THE WARMEST ON
RECORD AT BOTH ALMA AND GAINESVILLE AND HAVE BEEN THE SECOND
WARMEST AT BOTH JACKSONVILLE AND ST SIMONS ISLAND.

I think on Friday we may set a new record monthly high for September. Our monthly record is surprisingly low, 97.


Yeah, I would not be in the least bit surprised if we see record highs here in Jax and up in the SE GA WFOs SSIGuy. That hot, dry NW flow behind Earl is really going to be sweltering in our region the next few days.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


18mph... hahaha


You get an A. Stay safe in VA Beach
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1085. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1084. Walnut
Quoting Patrap:
Starting to look a lot better!
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1083. Thaale
Quoting NASA101:


Thaale: Just remember, in one of the runs 12Z runs Euro had Fiona a Cat4 in the Gulf 200+ hours out!! LMAO!! I would look for consistency - 12Z GFS, GFDL & HWRF are on the same tune with Gaston and hence I put a lot of faith in that three for now!!

I do remember. Euro swung wildly every 12 hours on Fiona before finally coming into line with the others (though the CMC was almost as bad). Since this is the first model run where ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF are even acknowledging Gaston's existence, it'll be interesting to see if their next runs show any consistency.
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1082. 900MB
Quoting MarathonZiggy:
Hey NE Wishcasters, lets not get carried away here. Keep in mind the fact that Earl will be crossing over very cool SSTs approaching Long Island & Cape Cod. We're talking very low 20's & below. These temps & land interaction will not be a good recipe for a Cat3 @ these latitudes.


True, but problem is that between the gulf stream coming up within 200 miles of Long Island and SSTs of 27 degrees or high just 50 miles off Long Island, the cool SSTs do not start until you pass Long Island.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


taking 13 or 58? the bay bridge tunnel might get some traffic


Negative, negative - around the town roads to Surrey, pick up 460 there and run like 'h' oh, scuse me, like the wind. Depending on forecast, I may stop at Bear Creek or keep going to Smith Mt Lake.
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1080. Patrap
EARL Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1079. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
GFS forecasts another TC to develop in 96 hours out in the eastern Atlantic. And so it continues...
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Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Test question: What is the average of the two averages?


18mph... hahaha
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6598
Quoting btwntx08:
that was fast 7-3-2


I told you!!!

:)
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I think the SE US and the GOM need to watch Gaston. Gaston should continue west or wnw probably all the way to the US.


ala....andrew?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.