Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

Share this Blog
9
+

Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.

A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.

>
Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.

Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.

Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.

All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.


Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.

Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.


Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.

TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1223 - 1173

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting Hurricanes101:


in September its very possible

I think we also need to consider home grown mischief, which we haven't seen a lot of this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Legion:
THE RECORD OF STORMTOP’S “KATRINA” PREDICTIONS

Link


Yes...I watched ST make all of those predictions.

What ever happened to him?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Portlight:
Summerville will be unaffected by this....will very likely be only a surf event for us...


wonderful..good to know..thank you for the fast response:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1220. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Severe Tropical Cyclone EARL AL072010
=======================================

2010SEP01 191500

CI 6.3
939.6
122.2
Initial 6.1
Adjusted 5.9
Raw 5.9

a split between T6.0 and T6.5 (almost back to category four)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I think Montauk won't get much more than gales. The only place in the NE that I think is likely to experience hurricane conditions is Nantucket.


Cantore just said Cape Cod can't be ruled out yet. If that's the case, can't rule out Eastern Maine, either.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
Quoting BobinTampa:


have to average more than one per week to get there.


in September its very possible
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7530
Quoting BobinTampa:


have to average more than one per week to get there.


True...and we've averaged one every 2.5 days since Sunday a week ago. There have been Septembers with 8 storms; I don't think six more is out of the question by any means. I still stick with my 20/12/6...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CoopsWife:


thanks,all. Yes, planning on an early to bed night. We are 10-11 miles from oceanfront, 2 iles south of the Chesapeake Bay, across the street from an inlet on the West branch of the Lynnhaven River, and I have a creek bog 20+ feet down the hill from the house. 20 feet elevation - about 120 feet with a tape measure, LOL.

Those who say back roads are an issue - probably other places, but here almost no one uses them, even at rush hour. It's bizarre, it is. A few weeks ago I made this run in reverse - I64 had a pretty standard bumper to bumper 4 hour backup instead of 90 minutes, so I took the 'back roads' and was home in 2 hours and saw about 15 cars the whole way.

If you are in an area that occasionally evacuates, I highly suggest getting a gazetteer for your region - with that you can even find your way on the gravel roads, LOL and it usually shows elevation so you don't wind up in a creek bottom.


Good plan. Hopefully, you won't need to evac, but if you do, you and your family are in my thoughts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1215. unf97
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Looks like we're going to have TS GASTON soon..

Can someone give me a link to where they say it's going to be a TS...

y, how to you pronounce GASTON?

Thanks.



Here is what you are looking for:

AL, 09, 2010090118, , BEST, 0, 128N, 362W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1011, 225, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Summerville will be unaffected by this....will very likely be only a surf event for us...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. TGTTX
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The lesser known SECOND evacuation from Rita
Link
washingtonpost.com > Nation > Special Reports > Gulf Coast Hurricanes
In Beaumont, Tex.
After Rita, Another Exodus
Heat, Humidity and Lack of Basic Services Drive Out Residents



BEAUMONT, Tex., Sept. 27 -- The threat of Hurricane Rita prompted a mass evacuation of the southeast corner of Texas. Now the post-Rita evacuation has started.

If the storm's ferocious winds and rain didn't destroy the spirit of the hardiest souls here, the unrelenting 100-degree heat and high humidity -- coupled with the lack of electrical power and nonfunctional water and sewer systems -- have.

"I can't take it anymore," said a sweaty Herb Rhoades, 47, of Nederland, who arrived Tuesday at the disaster relief staging area with a suitcase in hand and his Jack Russell terrier, Harley, in tow. "I thought maybe I could at first."

And so Rhoades and his dog boarded one of hundreds of chartered buses that have been loading up area residents and leaving every hour since Hurricane Rita struck Texas's Gulf Coast early Saturday morning. By Tuesday, more than 1,000 people had been transported out of town to San Antonio, with little more than a small bag of clothes, a personal care kit handed out by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and a brown bag lunch provided by the Salvation Army. At least the bus was air-conditioned.

These latest evacuees are being told they will remain in San Antonio for a week or two. But local officials have said that restoring power after massive outages -- caused by the area's famous huge pine trees toppling onto power lines -- could take four to six weeks. In the meantime, traffic signals are out, hospitals, schools and grocery stores are closed, and only a few gasoline stations, using generators, have opened. Beaumont, a city of 115,000, has no power but does have sporadic water and sewer service. The next-largest city to the south, Port Arthur with 60,000 people, remains dark and dry. Although floodwaters have largely receded, some spots of standing water have provided a breeding ground for hordes of mosquitoes and snakes.


+ the highest number you can fathom...
Member Since: July 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
The HH is back in Fiona's center. Just registered an extrapolated surface pressure of 999.4 mb, holding steady from the last vortex message (although in this case, vortex is a slight exaggeration.) It should encounter some of the peak surface winds again in a moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
1160:

If the CHIPS scenario did start to verify, the authorities would end up having to wake people up overnight tonight with tornado sirens and fire trucks and police sirens, and tell everyone to get the hell out...and they'd only have maybe 20 to 24 hours to run for it...

Which is why you never discount the so called "worst case scenario" I think it was Charley that caught everyone in Punta Gorda off guard especially when he rapidly instensified before making landfall, thus my saying goes "Prepare for the Worst & Hope for the Best." Make the right decision & don't let anyone encourage you too stay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It tells me I dont know what to believe. And so it goes South of Surf City then the whole East side of I95 maybe into RDU will be affected before the turn but media is saying nothing. Im prepared but if landfall strikes below OBX I can only believe there will be some lawsuits if not certainly a revamp of preparedness reporting is due is short oder.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I saw someone earlier said they were "upping" their predictions to 13 storms

yea my prediction is we will have 13 named storms by the end of September


have to average more than one per week to get there.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Thanks for that song Kristina, one of my all-time faves...and nice sound quality too!

TD9's 850 mb vorticity is way up from just a few hours ago. Tellin ya. That one's a beast.
Hopefully something will knock it down. ta.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoWVU:
Ok folks been working all day how is it looking for Charleston SC? The media here says we are good, but reading some of the posts..... thoughts anyone


Little worried also. My sister lives in Summerville with her 4 kids with a deployed husband. I need to know whether that far inland should be Ok or should I drive the 5 hours to meet her halfway:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fiona


Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1055
NC Emergency Management:
http://www.nccrimecontrol.org/Index2.cfm?a=000003,000010

VA Emergency Management:
http://www.vdem.state.va.us/

MD Emergency Management:
http://www.mema.state.md.us/MEMA/index.jsp

DE Emergency Management:
http://dema.delaware.gov/

NJ Emergency Management:
http://www.ready.nj.gov/

NY Emergency Management:
http://www.semo.state.ny.us/

CT Emergency Management:
http://www.ct.gov/demhs/site/default.asp

RI Emergency Management:
http://www.riema.ri.gov/

MA Emergency Management:
http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=eopsagencylanding&L=3&L0=Home&L1=Public+Safety+Agencies&L2=Massachusett s+Emergency+Management+Agency&sid=Eeops

NH Emergency Management:
http://www.nh.gov/safety/divisions/hsem/

ME Emergency Management:
http://www.maine.gov/mema/
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
1203. HCW
TD#9/Gaston model runs

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From NOAA:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 011905
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC WED SEP 1 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092010) 20100901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100901 1800 100902 0600 100902 1800 100903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 36.5W 13.1N 38.4W 13.3N 40.0W 13.7N 41.7W
BAMD 12.8N 36.5W 13.2N 38.3W 13.7N 39.6W 14.3N 40.8W
BAMM 12.8N 36.5W 13.1N 38.4W 13.4N 39.8W 13.8N 41.1W
LBAR 12.8N 36.5W 13.2N 38.7W 13.8N 41.0W 14.5N 43.2W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100903 1800 100904 1800 100905 1800 100906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 43.4W 15.3N 47.5W 16.2N 52.4W 16.6N 57.9W
BAMD 15.1N 42.5W 16.9N 47.2W 18.1N 52.9W 18.8N 59.6W
BAMM 14.4N 42.8W 15.7N 46.9W 16.5N 52.0W 16.5N 57.8W
LBAR 15.5N 45.2W 18.5N 49.2W 22.0N 52.8W 25.0N 54.9W
SHIP 65KTS 78KTS 85KTS 91KTS
DSHP 65KTS 78KTS 85KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 36.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 30.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

35kts=40mph. Tropical Storm strength.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting jeffs713:

Good idea. IMO, I would get some rest now, and check the 2am advisory. If its bad... get out before everyone else does. How close are you to the shore, and what elevation are you at?


thanks,all. Yes, planning on an early to bed night. We are 10-11 miles from oceanfront, 2 iles south of the Chesapeake Bay, across the street from an inlet on the West branch of the Lynnhaven River, and I have a creek bog 20+ feet down the hill from the house. 20 feet elevation - about 120 feet with a tape measure, LOL.

Those who say back roads are an issue - probably other places, but here almost no one uses them, even at rush hour. It's bizarre, it is. A few weeks ago I made this run in reverse - I64 had a pretty standard bumper to bumper 4 hour backup instead of 90 minutes, so I took the 'back roads' and was home in 2 hours and saw about 15 cars the whole way.

If you are in an area that occasionally evacuates, I highly suggest getting a gazetteer for your region - with that you can even find your way on the gravel roads, LOL and it usually shows elevation so you don't wind up in a creek bottom.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1200. Patrap
Well everyone take care of one another here..

Keep the official info flowing and show the world the "Wonder of the WUnderground".

Im splitting to get my Go-Gear ready for a Train ride.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Looks like we're going to have TS GASTON soon..

Can someone give me a link to where they say it's going to be a TS...

y, how to you pronounce GASTON?

Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1198. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Depression AL092010
==============================

2010SEP01 191500

CI 2.1
1008.2
31.0
Initial 2.1
Adjusted 2.2
Raw 2.5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Yep, December.


We hope!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Is there any ending in sight? lol


DEcember
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grecojdw:


I checked the Navy site, and its not named Gaston there neither.


Link to ATCF site??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patrap: Thank you for your reply. Good luck to you. I am sure we are in good hands with NHC, but I still get nervous watching all this unfold. I pray we are all safe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1055
1190. Patrap
Quoting AustinTXWeather:

Any idea what they'll be advising people in Boston to do? Keep hearing/reading updates that it may actually get closer to New England but unsure if they plan to evacuate or just tell folks to be prepared. Welcome insight on this -


I advise listening to your Local TV outlets and maybe check ones Local Emg Mgt online status
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
1188. GoWVU
Ok folks been working all day how is it looking for Charleston SC? The media here says we are good, but reading some of the posts..... thoughts anyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Yep, December.


guess all those crazy experts aren't such kooks after all for predicting nearly 20 storms lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7530
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Is there any ending in sight? lol

December.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
NOLA evacuates a million folks better than anyone..

K was a anomaly as the City had evacuated for Georges in 98,..Ivan in 04,and Dennis in 05.

Only 60,000 remained for Katrina and many payed the ultimate price.

I know as I help collect them and the Living for 12 days straight.

Also..Gustav showed how the lessons of 05 were learned as 97% evacuated without a single incident.

So before ya throw stones,,live a lil life and spread the word.

When told to get,..do it.

A few days inconvenience is a lot better than a few weeks of misery.

And datz all Im gonna say bout dat.


Saints vs Vikings Sept 9th, Thursday next week. o yeahhhhhhhhhhhhh

Favre on da aground,,again.

Any idea what they'll be advising people in Boston to do? Keep hearing/reading updates that it may actually get closer to New England but unsure if they plan to evacuate or just tell folks to be prepared. Welcome insight on this -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Folks in the Warned and watch areas should consider their action plan and be ready at a moments notice to leave.

Earl is destined to maintain its current intensity at least as it closes to the coastline.

Gas the vehicle..pack yer papers,,make ready for evacuation when told to do so.



If yall are in the the target areas, stay safe and listen to Pat. Don't take any chances. Good luck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
This could become a beast imo.

IRLoopTD9

I do not see where it was named Gaston yet.
And sorry about the fish comment. Earl did affect some of the islands. No deaths, thank goodness, but there's still time for that as it brushes the States, unfortunately.


I checked the Navy site, and its not named Gaston there neither.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1181. Patrap
Dvorak Imagery shows white to 5 shaded rings so Earl is Very Healthy and a Major Hurricane.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Chicklit:
This could become a beast imo.

IRLoopTD9

I do not see where it was named Gaston yet.
And sorry about the fish comment. Earl did affect some of the islands. No deaths, thank goodness, but there's still time for that as it brushes the States, unfortunately.


AL, 09, 2010090118, , BEST, 0, 128N, 365W, 35, 1005, TS

from the atcf site, never seen them upgrade something and have it not happen
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7530
1179. unf97
Quoting o22sail:


If it blows past 75W without a significant turn, I'm pulling the cloth off the cabana out back and tying some stuff down. Then off to the ABC store :)
(Richmond, Va)


Yeah 75W is the critical mark in my view. If Earl moves beyond 75W before the recurvature takes place, then I think the probabilities of even a landfall on the NC Outer Banks become greater.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at TD9's 850mb Vorticity


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


PGI39L image from NRL website
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1176. scCane
Quoting angiest:


It would appear Earl is trying to rip her apart but he may, surprisingly, not win.
It all depends on speed. Fiona appear to be speeding up again as long as that happens Earl's going to keep her in check, might even kill her off if she stays under it for to long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Is there any ending in sight? lol


Yep, December.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Virginia Beach, Hampton National Guard staging for Earl.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1173. angiest
Food for thought. It is a good thing that we are not expecting the imminent landfall of a major from Central Texas back to LA/MS, as one of the major evacuation routes, I-10, has been closed since the weekend due to a chemical spill. How many of our Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike evacuees traveled one way or the other through the Winnie, TX, area?

I trust none of the evac routes along the NE coast are blocked for any such thing.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

Viewing: 1223 - 1173

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
72 °F
Mostly Cloudy