Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.

A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.

>
Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.

Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.

Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.

All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.


Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.

Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.


Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.

TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Is GASTON said like...

gasten, gastOn? Thanks.


Like GAS TAWN....with a Cajun accent. :-D
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Ok thanks!
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Quoting luigi18:


You thinks she is moving west towards us here in pr?

Fiona is not a threat to Puerto Rico. But given her persistence, her strong TS winds, and her slowly dropping pressure, it's one that Bermuda should keep an eye on.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Is GASTON said like...

gasten, gastOn? Thanks.


I would pronounce it "gus-DAHN".
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
1269. xcool

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1268. myrtle1
portlight how bout myrtle beach
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Quoting flbeachgirl:
I'm in Jax Beach and it's getting a little uncomfortable having Earl get so close without making that promised north turn. How much longer does he have to make that turn without us feeling the heat?

You have absolutely nothing to worry about even if he never does turn.
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i think earl may be too strong for anything to turn it fully like the models are saying. i wouldnt trust them as everytime they come out, they move west
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1265. xcool
BIG A+ TO CMC
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Gaston is a character in the Beauty and the Beast! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Characters_in_Disney's_Beauty_and_the_Beast
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1263. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 011858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC WED SEP 1 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092010) 20100901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100901 1800 100902 0600 100902 1800 100903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 36.2W 13.0N 38.1W 13.3N 39.8W 13.6N 41.5W
BAMD 12.8N 36.2W 13.3N 38.0W 13.8N 39.2W 14.4N 40.5W
BAMM 12.8N 36.2W 13.2N 38.1W 13.6N 39.5W 14.0N 40.8W
LBAR 12.8N 36.2W 13.3N 38.4W 13.8N 40.6W 14.6N 42.7W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100903 1800 100904 1800 100905 1800 100906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 43.3W 15.2N 47.4W 16.0N 52.5W 16.2N 58.1W
BAMD 15.3N 42.3W 17.0N 46.9W 18.3N 52.7W 19.0N 59.4W
BAMM 14.6N 42.6W 16.0N 46.8W 16.8N 51.9W 16.8N 58.0W
LBAR 15.6N 44.7W 18.5N 48.7W 22.0N 52.5W 24.9N 54.7W
SHIP 63KTS 76KTS 83KTS 89KTS
DSHP 63KTS 76KTS 83KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 36.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 30.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM
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Man- it looks like N S is a magnet for Earl. Th epath strays a bit loeft or right but every track has us right in the middle :(
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1261. xcool
GASTON yayyyyyyyyyyyyy

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1260. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1245. RecordSeason 7:48 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
1220:

CI 6.3
939.6
122.2 ???
Initial 6.1
Adjusted 5.9
Raw 5.9


====

is that 122.2kts? or 122.2mph?

122mph would be weaker, in spite of lower pressure, which doesn't make sense.


So I guess it must be 122kts. Can anyone confirm that?

141mph sustained now?

?


all wind intensity is in knots
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1259. breald
Quoting spartankicker:


Cantore just said Cape Cod can't be ruled out yet. If that's the case, can't rule out Eastern Maine, either.


Everything is close together up here. I am only 85 miles from Nantucket and 103 miles from Provincetown. If it makes landfall in Nantucket many areas will be feeling this storm.
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Quoting GoodOleBudSir:
BobinTampa,
Heading to Tampa for the Bucs vs. Steelers and the Pitt vs. USF game. Is the Marriot Waterside a good place to stay?

Sorry to be off topic.


yeah, it's downtown and pretty close to everything.

You in Pittsburgh? I love that town. When USF played at Penn State a few years back, I flew into Pittsburgh and caught a Friday night Pirates game (GREAT stadium) before heading to Happy Valley.

Heading up that way to catch USF at W Virginia this year.
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Quoting ncweatherenthus:


I can speak for NC here. There was a plan put in place after Hurricane Floyd triggered the traffic jams in the mass exodus from the coast, but they've since scrapped those plans claiming their outdated. Which may be the case but I wouldn't have scrapped the best route out of southeastern NC. That's where most of the people are anyway.

We have a sort of plan in SE VA that involves changing the interstate lanes to one way but the traffic is already so bad not sure how anyone would get out early enough.
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Quoting Patrap:
Well everyone take care of one another here..

Keep the official info flowing and show the world the "Wonder of the WUnderground".

Im splitting to get my Go-Gear ready for a Train ride.



Take Care and God speed!
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Hey Long beach..are you there now?

I am from that area...;lived near Long Beach High and born there



Yup Im on Franklin Bay side. No flooding during the March Noreaster which was very very intense (80mph wind gusts and major tree damage) So I am not to worried about flooding. Probably see a period of tropical storm conditions maybe peak gusts around 60 so there will be tree damage.

I took some before pics of the last row of apartment buildings heading towards Lido. They are in bad shape after NorIda and the March noreaster. As in maybe 50 feet of beach in front of them.

I will try and get some live pics Friday of the water smashing off their see walls.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
ga-STAWN

I think it must be of French origin?
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Quoting Grecojdw:


kind of like gah-stohn,if written phonetically.


just watch disney's beauty and the beast lol
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Florida/Bahamas infrared:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Chicklit:
This could become a beast imo.

IRLoopTD9

I do not see where it was named Gaston yet.
And sorry about the fish comment. Earl did affect some of the islands. No deaths, thank goodness, but there's still time for that as it brushes the States, unfortunately.


And keep in mind that Earl's sights are squarely set on Nova Scotia and the Atlantic provinces too!
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I work for NC Highway Patrol and not quite a state of emergency yet, but the governor has suspended some transportation laws in order to expedite the recovery effort.

Link
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Is GASTON said like...

gasten, gastOn? Thanks.


The snooty French way is gass-TAWn, but GAS-tuhn (rhymes with aston) will work just great. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. ;-)
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Quoting CoopsWife:


thanks,all. Yes, planning on an early to bed night. We are 10-11 miles from oceanfront, 2 iles south of the Chesapeake Bay, across the street from an inlet on the West branch of the Lynnhaven River, and I have a creek bog 20+ feet down the hill from the house. 20 feet elevation - about 120 feet with a tape measure, LOL.

Those who say back roads are an issue - probably other places, but here almost no one uses them, even at rush hour. It's bizarre, it is. A few weeks ago I made this run in reverse - I64 had a pretty standard bumper to bumper 4 hour backup instead of 90 minutes, so I took the 'back roads' and was home in 2 hours and saw about 15 cars the whole way.

If you are in an area that occasionally evacuates, I highly suggest getting a gazetteer for your region - with that you can even find your way on the gravel roads, LOL and it usually shows elevation so you don't wind up in a creek bottom.


My major concern is for the low lying areas of Norfolk, especially parts of Ocean View. Those folks never seem to get ahead of a storm and then wait to be bailed out. The Lynnhaven has rarely caused much trouble except around wolfsnare creek area and rarely on the west side of the river.
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1243. HCW
18Z Fiona model runs from the NHC

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1242. hydrus
It appears there is a hot tower wrapping into the eyewall right now.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20974
Quoting angiest:
Food for thought. It is a good thing that we are not expecting the imminent landfall of a major from Central Texas back to LA/MS, as one of the major evacuation routes, I-10, has been closed since the weekend due to a chemical spill. How many of our Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike evacuees traveled one way or the other through the Winnie, TX, area?

I trust none of the evac routes along the NE coast are blocked for any such thing.


I can speak for NC here. There was a plan put in place after Hurricane Floyd triggered the traffic jams in the mass exodus from the coast, but they've since scrapped those plans claiming their outdated. Which may be the case but I wouldn't have scrapped the best route out of southeastern NC. That's where most of the people are anyway.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Is GASTON said like...

gasten, gastOn? Thanks.


kind of like gah-stohn,if written phonetically.
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1239. angiest
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Good afternoon everyone!!!
This suprised me big time.

The GFS picked up on TD 9.


Fiona is kinda hard to see in there.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1238. 900MB
Quoting spartankicker:


Cantore just said Cape Cod can't be ruled out yet. If that's the case, can't rule out Eastern Maine, either.


I don't know, man! I am starting to get awfully nervous. If this thing turns into a coast hugger we are all screwed! It seems like this is becoming a more likely scenario! Someone calm me down here! The trough is tilting and now the NHC doesn't expect turn North til Thursday (it was supposed to be today). Remember, Montauk is 120 miles east of NYC.
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Good afternoon,


We are getting busy and so are the fish..... Thats about it for now.....


Cheers....
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1236. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
ga-STAWN
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1235. CJ5
Quoting spartankicker:


Cantore just said Cape Cod can't be ruled out yet.



Jeez...that is an understatement...lol
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Is GASTON said like...

gasten, gastOn? Thanks.


I think it is Gast-own....could be wrong though
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I'm in Jax Beach and it's getting a little uncomfortable having Earl get so close without making that promised north turn. How much longer does he have to make that turn without us feeling the heat?
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Quoting globemstr3:
It tells me I dont know what to believe. And so it goes South of Surf City then the whole East side of I95 maybe into RDU will be affected before the turn but media is saying nothing. Im prepared but if landfall strikes below OBX I can only believe there will be some lawsuits if not certainly a revamp of preparedness reporting is due is short oder.


If you are uncertain, don't take any chances, just leave. You don't have to wait for an evacuation order to be given. It is better to be wrong and inconvenienced than to be dead.
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
Quoting Hurricanes101:


guess all those crazy experts are such kooks after all for predicting nearly 20 storms lol


My number was and is 14/7/4 or 5

September could rack up 4 to 6 systems, October 2 and November 1 so I may be low but we will see. One thing is for certain it won't be an average year. The real worry is when will we see something track through the Caribbean and all that TCHP ??. Gaston could be the first to make a run at least into the Eastern Caribbean. I ran about six models a few minutes ago and without exception they all build a strong sub tropical ridge all the way across the Atl that brings Gaston either through the Eastern Caribbean or just east of it near 17N.

Something to watch for sure.
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BobinTampa,
Heading to Tampa for the Bucs vs. Steelers and the Pitt vs. USF game. Is the Marriot Waterside a good place to stay?

Sorry to be off topic.
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1229. GoWVU
Quoting Portlight:
Summerville will be unaffected by this....will very likely be only a surf event for us...

Great news!! Thanks for the update
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1228. luigi18
Quoting CloudGatherer:
The HH is back in Fiona's center. Just registered an extrapolated surface pressure of 999.4 mb, holding steady from the last vortex message (although in this case, vortex is a slight exaggeration.) It should encounter some of the peak surface winds again in a moment.


You thinks she is moving west towards us here in pr?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Is GASTON said like...

gasten, gastOn? Thanks.
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1226. ncstorm
Quoting globemstr3:
It tells me I dont know what to believe. And so it goes South of Surf City then the whole East side of I95 maybe into RDU will be affected before the turn but media is saying nothing. Im prepared but if landfall strikes below OBX I can only believe there will be some lawsuits if not certainly a revamp of preparedness reporting is due is short oder.


Exactly..I said it earlier
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Good afternoon everyone!!!
This suprised me big time.

The GFS picked up on TD 9.
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I live in Wisconsin and the trough isn't expected to pass through until tomorrow night. I truly believe Earl gets to the coast before the trough captures it. He's moving too fast.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


in September its very possible

I think we also need to consider home grown mischief, which we haven't seen a lot of this year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.