Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

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273. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon fix ~23.450N 70.550W 940mb 95kt (109mph) surface wind on the way in.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Mine says 2pm XD
Crazy NHC LOL


mine says nothing, the site crashed for me
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269. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmm mine still says 8pm couldve been a bug on ur computer or something


Mine says 2pm XD
Crazy NHC LOL
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Wish NHC would hurry up with the TWO so I can sleep :x
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
NHC site just crashed
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Quoting Skyepony:
Quoting iammothernature:
DOES ANYBODY have a link to satellite image showing CLOUD TOP HEIGHTS (NOT temperatures)??????????????

click pic for link.


Thanks. Although that is Cloud Top Pressure and not Height, they represent each other, so that works.

From that link I even found a pic with actual Cloud Top Heights for the Atlantic:

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940mbs lowest pressure found by recon
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Quoting Skyepony:


Should be sleeping.. recon is almost there..
Quoting Skyepony:


Should be sleeping.. recon is almost there..



No kidding - way past my quota! Been a long day, week and month! ;P Wavetrain has cranked up though!
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Hi everyone. Working the graveyard shift tonight. Just looked at the 11 o'clock and this thing seems like it's going to be a real nail biter to say the least.
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261. xcool
CoopNTexas yep like fat albert
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With Earl now heading in a definite NW direction, will that allow the shear over Fiona to weaken enough to grant her a fighting chance? If that were to happen, the NW turn scenario would still hold true, yes?
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Quoting traumaboyy:


That's OK You still the MAN.....What Up KORI!!


lol

Not much man. Tracking Earl this evening. Starting to worry about our friends in the mid-Atlantic and New England. Canada too, of course.

You?
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258. xcool
that drity older lady come back from dead haha
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0z CMC blowing up 98L
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256. JRRP
Link
mmmmmmmmm???? problem?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
minus 3 hours


plus 3 hours





TS, you gotta show me a trough that means much! Where is it? Danielle's weakness is supposed to be closed by around noon tomorrow according to the maritime forecast. What you think is gonna happen?
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254. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
(((SKYE))), hey! Good to see you!

You slummin' tonight? ;P


Should be sleeping.. recon is almost there..
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Anyone with the list of previous fixes
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't intend to. I clicked the TWO, and it didn't say 8PM anymore, so I assumed it was the 2AM TWO, and that it was just a typo on Berg's part.

But now that I see the date still says August 31... I have no idea what's going on.

Sorry guys.


That's OK You still the MAN.....What Up KORI!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't intend to. I clicked the TWO, and it didn't say 8PM anymore, so I assumed it was the 2AM TWO, and that it was just a typo on Berg's part.

But now that I see the date still says August 31... I have no idea what's going on.

Sorry guys.


You got trolled by the NHC, and so did I.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
Current track of Earl from the Hurricane Hunters? I have been out for most of the night.
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Quoting xcool:
blog dead


Call Code....Bring Crash Cart!!!

What up XCOOL!!
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hmmm - look like a west wobble is about to happen

maybe im tired - too much surfing today :)
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Quoting twooks:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

Sry if I'm a embedding nub, but 98L is looking somewhat better? Agree? disagree?



Dayumed skippy! Good, broad lateral circ, but tightening. Growing, wrapping convection. All elements of better organization.
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243. Skyepony (Mod)
30 day Sea Surface Temp gif including the forecast next 5 days or so with the expected cold trail from Earl & Fiona.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
very funny KorithMan please do not post the old updates it could mislead people thank you


I didn't intend to. I clicked the TWO, and it didn't say 8PM anymore, so I assumed it was the 2AM TWO, and that it was just a typo on Berg's part.

But now that I see the date still says August 31... I have no idea what's going on.

Sorry guys.
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Hurricane Earl - recon data
From 67° at 112 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 128.8 mph)
972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg)
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
How much is the intensity of 98L being suppressed by the cold water upwelling of the storms that passed before it?


Right now? Not at all. Earl was a TS until it was just offshore of the Lesser Antilles:



So, it caused little upwelling and used up little heat from the ocean in the area where 98l is currently.

But once 98l moves a few days worth west it will feel some of the colder temps:

Aug 26th SSTs:





Aug 30th SSTs:




Cooler temps north of 20 lat and between lon 50 and 70.
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minus 3 hours


plus 3 hours


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237. xcool
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Quoting btwntx08:
koritheman that was the 2 pm two lol 2 am isnt out yet


No Berg just messed up and put 2PM I think.
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Quoting htowngraduate:
Looking at 98L I really do not see it fizzing out like Fiona will. It is far enough away and if Earl keeps moving North then I see 98L possibly heading into the carribean. Anyone else agree? I really just dont see why they are calling for 98L to die out. It seems to be forming nicely.

I will go out on a limb & agree... it is finally free of Earl & able to rebuild herself.
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very funny KorithMan please do not post the old updates it could mislead people thank you
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I wouldn't put SC out just yet.
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232. xcool
blog dead
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

Sry if I'm a embedding nub, but 98L is looking somewhat better? Agree? disagree?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
(((SKYE))), hey! Good to see you!

You slummin' tonight? ;P
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Quoting Wariac:
yep Hurricanes101. instead of arguing about Earl's projected path people are arguing about Katrina from five years ago. maybe I'm tired but I find it ridiculous.
hardly an argument just a discussion. About a tropical storm. On a tropical weather blog. sorry you dont approve.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
wow is this blog actually arguing about whether the NHC got right or wrong a storm that was 5 years ago?

lol

LOL, yeah, all tied in to the few wishcasters that insist GA, FL and SC are still in play with Earl. Katrina seems to be the "proof" that the NHC doesn't know what they're doing.
And I'm really sorry I let myself get pulled into the eye of THAT storm. Conspiracy theorists just never give up, despite the facts.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
I thought about it mlc...But then the HWRF is right around 2, then you got to wait for the GFDL at 2:25ish, then by three the early cycles are out...Can't do it again tonight ;)

Really off to dreamland now.


;P

Goodnight, friend!
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gulp
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 311754
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF GRAND TURK...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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