Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

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14 > 15mph

Racing the trough now?

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my internet is so screwed up right now

I have no clue what is going on

I lost this site, yahoo, facebook, nhc, buoy site

yet the recon site worked the whole time for me


I wonder if there is some sort of huge internet crash or something
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320. JRRP
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm surprised.

+1
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Link

Buoy 41046 updated recently
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Also, quick question for anyone in the mood...

Before the HH plane flies into a storm, how do we know what the wind speeds are? I imagine maybe weather bueys, and how it plays out on the sat images but that's only a guess.
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Quoting iammothernature:
I just turned this image of Cloud Top Pressure in Black and White:








Into a colorized version!!!!!:



Image and video hosting by TinyPic



All that using free picture editing software, pretty sweet.



Cool. Thanks.


Still not impressed with the trough. More amplified to the northern end, but not looking as significant across the cCONUS.

That's really cool! Thanks.
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Quoting Skyepony:
MLC~ It looks right in between the last & the next forecast point. Looks like it took a wobble west from where it is on near 2hr old last frame of the SSD Floater.



Thanks, Skye. We'll call it a wobble. Be interesting to see how he acts when he can no longer feel Danielle's weakness tomorrow and the CONUS high advances further east.
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I just turned this image of Cloud Top Pressure in Black and White:



Image and video hosting by TinyPic



Into a colorized version!!!!!:



Image and video hosting by TinyPic



All that using free picture editing software, pretty sweet.



I bet I could do it with the non colorized GOES IR too. Just takes a s--- load of time lol.
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would like a documentary. Lock several NHC "brains" in a room. They could have satellite feeds and access to all data except no models, no outside contact,cell phones etc. I think they would be lost.


I don't know, isn't the reason that why we have models in the first place is because these systems are so complex a computer program is necessary to keep track and weight all the factors? Part of their skill I believe is understanding how the computer models tick and know when they are giving us garbage. I do get what you are saying, but do we expect other professions to shun technology? Like, "I bet if you took away a trama surgeon's x-rays and CT scans they'd suck at repairing bullet wounds."
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Quoting twooks:
For 98L... Why I waiting for the two. To confirm my suspicions :P
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.



Good obs! ;)

I've my suspicions from the Euro from a day or two ago, that what most thought hitting the ncGOM was Fiona - I'm thinking the models were confused, especially with Fiona moving so fast and in such close proximity to Earl. And, what it was really picking up on was the future Gaston. We'll see.
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Quoting xcool:
omg 50%


HMMMMMMM....That One I Worry!!
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309. xcool
KoritheMan you think i'm too
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OK between 11 pm EDT and 2 am EDT Earl

Moved 0.5 N and 0.8 W

A distance of 61 statute miles at around 305 degrees.

Distance to me decreased from 905 miles to 844 miles during the same period, an identical amount. Meaning that for the past 3 hours, Earl was moving directly towards me, and at an arrival time of 6 pm EDT Thursday.

Of course that won't happen. I doubt Earl will get within 300 miles of me.


Did the same thing exact thing from 8pm to 11pm...Earl has been moving at 300 degrees for the last 6 hours. Granted, before that, he moved NNW for a few hours, so they may just be large wobbles.
Member Since: February 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 214
Quoting xcool:
omg 50%


I'm surprised.
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306. Skyepony (Mod)
MLC~ It looks right in between the last & the next forecast point. Looks like it took a wobble west from where it is on near 2hr old last frame of the SSD Floater.
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Well I'm going to hit to sack. Ya'll don't stay up too late. Was fun.
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EWRC complete..

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
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303. xcool
omg 50%
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wow, recon found 1002mb in Fiona

and 60mph winds
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 010559
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane EARL Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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US Watch/Warning Storm Surge
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT32 KNHC 010556
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 70.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES





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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT33 KNHC 010552
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...FIONA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 60.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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For 98L... Why I waiting for the two. To confirm my suspicions :P
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
292. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 05:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 5:38:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°27'N 70°33'W (23.45N 70.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 442 miles (712 km) to the ESE (105°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,598m (8,524ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 66° at 116kts (From the ENE at ~ 133.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:29:50Z
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I was actually reading recently that Katrina's final directional movments weren't the challenge but instead it was harder to predict what her strength would be at landfall.
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50% on 98L
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Tropical Storm Fiona - Recon data
lowest pressure found was 1006mb.
highest surface wind was
49.1 knots* (~ 56.5 mph*)
Tropical Storm*
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288. JLPR2
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 1
Location: 23.5°N 70.7°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
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Quoting Skyepony:
Recon fix ~23.450N 70.550W 940mb 95kt (109mph) surface wind on the way in.



Does that make the coc just east of the next forecast point?
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vortex message says 942mbs for Earl
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Quoting twooks:
Wish NHC would hurry up with the TWO so I can sleep :x



Check out - the NHC is not going to vary considerably, no matter what, at this time. It can lean and you can discern, but it won't be significant. And, rightly so - it's weather, the pattern changes, but usually not so fast that they have to be abrupt. Not likely to sound much different, but go for it.
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I'm really surprised earl is still 940mb, looks like crap on the satellite.
Member Since: February 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 214
Quoting Hurricanes101:


mine says nothing, the site crashed for me


Mine has been up the entire time. Perfectly fine over here. =P
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Quoting btwntx08:
hmmm mine still says 8pm couldve been a bug on ur computer or something


Did you click it?
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277. JLPR2
...FIONA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 1
Location: 17.2°N 60.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
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Quoting KoritheMan:


lol

Not much man. Tracking Earl this evening. Starting to worry about our friends in the mid-Atlantic and New England. Canada too, of course.

You?


Quiet right now....making beds and washing down walls waiting for next business....Yes...hopefully it will stay disorganized enough to be less damaging.
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275. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


mine says nothing, the site crashed for me


maybe too much traffic and the site went poof? XD
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


mine says nothing, the site crashed for me
site wont load
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273. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon fix ~23.450N 70.550W 940mb 95kt (109mph) surface wind on the way in.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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