Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

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at 96hrs, it's weak on 98L but notice another one coming off the coast.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I agree with you for the most part. Technology is great. I don't want to go back to the 1950s in forecasting. Perhaps computer models are becoming so accurate that we have no choice but to accept them. As far as the NHC goes I see a day coming when they, just like airline pilots, and probably everybody else but artists, will be supplanted by computers. Then we can all devote our entire lives to leisure.


If that's the case, I'll remain primitive in my forecasting. There's no fun in forecasting if you don't analyze things for yourself.
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not drop but weaker:

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370. xcool
old news on EURO drops fion
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EURO drops fiona.
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367. xcool
Fiona moved west
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Bed for me...I really hope the models are just converging towards a near miss of Hatteras and aren't trending westward...with Earl still stronger than a lot of us expected it would be fine if he could just go away now.
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363. JLPR2
The center of Fiona is really obvious on radar now.

Link
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
EURO

yup Euro, Nogaps & UKMET all w/in 50miles of or on shore at NC, Euro and Nogaps onshore in NE, this is getting close!
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NOGAPS has landfall84hr108hr
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EURO

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357. flsky
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It's the same thing with Doctors these days. They can't diagnose anything by exam. You come in with a headache and they order a CT and a MRI. Some want to do away with the exam. Yes, technology is great, but we're forgetting how to do anything manually.

Rampant lawsuits....
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good night everyone
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Photobucket


...'bout whooped, all. Just not liking what I think I see.

Thanks.

Have a good sleep, all. :)

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Its getting close. I say 65% chance landfall.
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HurricaneEarl's heading had remained steady at 11.3degrees west of NorthWest, ie well
within the margin of error from its previous heading of 11.4degrees west of NorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~20.3mph(~32.7km/h)

31Aug . 06amGMT - - 19.9n66.2w - - 135mph - - 933mb - - NHC.Adv.#23A
31Aug . 09amGMT - - 20.5n66.7w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - #24
31Aug . 12pmGMT - - 20.7n67.2w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - #24A
31Aug . 03pmGMT - - 21.2n67.9w - - 135mph - - 939mb - - #25
31Aug . 06pmGMT - - 21.5n68.5w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #25A
31Aug . 09pmGMT - - 22.0n68.8w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26
01Sep . 12amGMT - - 22.5n69.1w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26A
01Sep . 03amGMT - - 23.0n69.9w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27
01Sep . 06amGMT - - 23.5n70.7w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27A

Copy&paste 19.9n66.2w, 20.5n66.7w, 20.7n67.2w, 21.2n67.9w, 21.5n68.5w-22.0n68.8w, 22.0n68.8w-22.5n69.1w, 22.5n69.1w-23.0n69.9w, 23.0n69.9w-23.5n70.7w, jax, 23.5n70.7w-29.35n81.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~37hours from now to DaytonaBeach,Florida
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351. xcool
hmm
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350. JRRP
Quoting Hurricanes101:


well there was 1 with 60mph, but plenty of observations around 50-55mph


ook
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last two frames finished, turns in nick of time gets very close but center stays offshore in UKMET

edit offshore from carolina, run finishes before it approaches NE lat
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Quoting JRRP:

60mph??? O o


well there was 1 with 60mph, but plenty of observations around 50-55mph

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
my internet is so screwed up right now

I have no clue what is going on

I lost this site, yahoo, facebook, nhc, buoy site

yet the recon site worked the whole time for me


I wonder if there is some sort of huge internet crash or something


Quoting xcool:
Hurricanes101 you need clean cookies


Nothing to do with cookies but possibly a failure of the OS and/or browser to properly cache DNS. It could also have been your ISP. I assume you are using Windows, so try rebooting. Also don't use Internet Explorer. Use Google chrome instead.

Edit: And yes, of course clear your cache and if you don't mind having to relogin whatever sites you use, clear cookies as well.
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AL, 98, 2010090106, , BEST, 0, 125N, 335W, 25, 1008, DB
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I already know what TSFiona may do to PR scottsvb...that's why I wanted to know about 98L...no need to get rude.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Photobucket


models are starting to jump on
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343. JRRP
Quoting Hurricanes101:
wow, recon found 1002mb in Fiona

and 60mph winds

60mph??? O o
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to Kerry -
I agree with you in part, you need to know the basics first then expand and being a true expert means understanding how the technology works and, most important, when it fails, but your example seems ridiculous. Of course if you took away this great technology that has been painstakingly developed over several years (decades I think now) then they will perform worse! Take away medical imagery technologies and more things get missed, take away ABS and more cars will collide... you get the picture. I think you are right, but I don't see what it has to do with the NHC being incompetent.
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Photobucket
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Quoting alfabob:


968mb with 79.6 kts gusts, wonder if 6:50 update will be in the eye.


That will be interesting to see. Hopefully it will maintain it's integrity and continue to transmit data.
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339. xcool
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.2N 38.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2010 14.2N 38.8W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2010 14.7N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2010 15.4N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2010 16.2N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2010 16.5N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2010 17.2N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2010 17.9N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2010 18.8N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
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338. JRRP
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hi everyone

for those interested UKMET seems to be taking a more westward swing towards carloina so far on the 2am, still few more frames to update
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Quoting mississippiwx23:
The pressure is 28.59 in, 968 mb.


that is pretty low; should get lower
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thanks Koritheman
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Seriously? 98L? Come on.... first think about Fiona as its a Tropical storm.. probably with winds near 50mph and can give some good feeder bands as it passes just to your east.
98L is 4-6days out if it even develops. Wait till its 2 days away or near 50W before thinking Puerto Rico.
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Quoting iammothernature:

I just turned this image of Cloud Top Pressure in Black and White:








Into a colorized version!!!!!:



Image and video hosting by TinyPic



All that using free picture editing software, pretty sweet.



I bet I could do it with the non colorized GOES IR too. Just takes a s--- load of time lol.



Here it is!!

Original B/W:




Colorized:


Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Pretty sick, now with this editing software, I can add any color scale I want!
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The pressure is 28.59 in, 968 mb.
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330. xcool
Hurricanes101 you need clean cookies
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AL, 08, 2010090106, , BEST, 0, 172N, 597W, 40, 1004, TS

Fiona intensifies

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Quoting Wariac:
Jrrp...is 98L supposed to pass near PR?


It could, but it might stay farther south.
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Quoting mississippiwx23:
Buoy 41046:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 64.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 79.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 41.7 ft


what is the pressure at that buoy?
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Jrrp...is 98L supposed to pass near PR?
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Buoy 41046:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 64.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 79.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 41.7 ft
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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