Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting Cotillion:
How's it for the Bahamas right now, Baha?
Hey; just saw this. Currently in Nassau fair, partly cloudy, little to no wind. Pretty typical for this time of year. But the SE Bahamas is almost 500 miles away, so.... conditions there and in San Sal. are likely not as sanguine. I'll likely speak with a family member later today to find out what the weather was like down that way yesterday...
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Quoting surfmom:
ROTFL - 60 chickens LOL -well when you have 60 I don't think they're egg producing "pets" anymore. My Coop does have a "second story" in case of flooding, but my girls all have names - so I got attached. My hubby, a NYCityBoy, was not pleased.... the cat's drooled

I always marker the contact phone number on the horses during a cane or cane threat as well as tie ID tags on their tails - this way if the fences go down and they get lose it's a quick return


My chickens all got names too....but I would get banned if I told you what I call em........all three of my neighbors get eggs on a regular basis..and they got horses..and my fence has been down for two days now...you can't blast my horses out of that pasture...they just have it to darn good...lol
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New 6z GFS continues to show Earl remaining offshore Carolinas. Thats good and I hope that pans out. Fiona seems lost in the mix.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting sandiquiz:


We even had a Frost yesterday - In AUGUST!!


Frost in Bucks, Sandi?

Blazing sunshine up north.
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What a great idea, Surf - I would try that on the poodles (collars can come loose), but since they are black.... maybe on their bellies? :)
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Quoting 1965:
AM visible of 98L.
Sure am glad this season is a bust:)


What?
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Quoting surfmom:
Ahhh Cot., come to the sandbar - you can watch canes real time and Chica's w/out wetsuits
Sandbars rock!! I'll have a Rum/coke please!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


They do well....I have about 60 chickens....and them nasty things aint comin in my house......but they are as prepared as I guess they can be already....Horses they get in the middle of the pasture during our horrendous thunderstorms and sit down....they seem to know what to do.
ROTFL - 60 chickens LOL -well when you have 60 I don't think they're egg producing "pets" anymore. My Coop does have a "second story" in case of flooding, but my girls all have names - so I got attached. My hubby, a NYCityBoy, was not pleased.... the cat's drooled

I always marker the contact phone number on the horses during a cane or cane threat as well as tie ID tags on their tails - this way if the fences go down and they get lose it's a quick return
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565. 1965
AM visible of 98L.
Sure am glad this season is a bust:)
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Morning all. I was surprised to see a midnight update, but nice, too. Any big changes?
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Quoting surfmom:
Ahhh Cot., come to the sandbar - you can watch canes real time and Chica's w/out wetsuits


Heh. I can do the first, but I don't need the second... happily taken man and all.

Been a while since I've been on a beach, 'specially after growing up with them all around. So sure!
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Quoting sandiquiz:


We even had a Frost yesterday - In AUGUST!!


Aint no way.....when I am not working I wear shorts and flip flops.....I do the cowboy thing when it is cold (boots, jeans, hat) but I don't like it!!
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morning
what i have noticed this morning is the steering currents for the time being will take most systems from the atlantic on a wnw then nw course course to the north of the ledder antilles and then curve out to sea. at the moment the caribbean and the gomex is relatively free, unless there is development in these areas. the upper level pattern is about to change with ridge getting stronger and flatter and will force atlantic grown stroms more on a west track
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Quoting traumaboyy:


I would rather deal with Camille than your COLD!!!!!!


We even had a Frost yesterday - In AUGUST!!
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Quoting Cotillion:


Thanks for the info.

And hope that Earl stays well away from ya.


You're welcome, and thanks! Don't think he will be far enough away to make me happy, but at least I'll be looking at his pretty side!
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Ahhh Cot., come to the sandbar - you can watch canes real time and Chica's w/out wetsuits
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TXHoosier - yep, I agree. That's why the outside prep is already done, and the go bags packed - just in case.
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Quoting CoopsWife:
Cotillion - yep, both of those area are fairly safe - except Oregon is rainy as all get out on the coast. Over on the dry side of the Sisters, it's really dry, as is most of western/southern Idaho (the L&M's home stomping grounds). There is a fault line in southern Idaho, but it's pretty rare for anything to even jiggle, much less rumble, LOL.


Thanks for the info.

And hope that Earl stays well away from ya.
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Quoting TxKeef:


98L seems to be picking up steam.


TxKeef, real nice graphic, thanks for posting it!!!!

That trough dropping down from the NE over the Carolina's and points east does not look very strong. Seems to be disapating the further it goes south.....

People in Virginia Beach and DC, and 'easterner's to the north had better hope Earl tracks more to the east.

REMEMBER, this storm has always tracked on the Western Extreme of the predicted paths and the models. 100 miles to the west will be real painful to the east coast north of 30-35 degrees north.....
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Per Aqua - thankYOU!
A trough, is the name of the edge of low pressure. Storms will go towards troughs. If a trough "deepens", that means the low pressure is getting even lower, and the storm is even more drawn to it. Like, digging a trough in the ground.

A ridge, is the edge of high pressure. "The ridge is expanding" or "the ridge is strengthening" that means the high pressure is getting higher, and storms can't go past it. Like a big pile of dirt on the ground.
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HurricaneEarl's heading had turned northward to 2.5degrees north of NorthWest
from its previous heading of 11.3degrees west of NorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~15.7mph(~25.2km/h)

31Aug . 09amGMT - - 20.5n66.7w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - NHC.Adv.#24
31Aug . 12pmGMT - - 20.7n67.2w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - #24A
31Aug . 03pmGMT - - 21.2n67.9w - - 135mph - - 939mb - - #25
31Aug . 06pmGMT - - 21.5n68.5w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #25A
31Aug . 09pmGMT - - 22.0n68.8w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26
01Sep . 12amGMT - - 22.5n69.1w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26A
01Sep . 03amGMT - - 23.0n69.9w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27
01Sep . 06amGMT - - 23.5n70.7w - - 135mph - - 840mb - - #27A
01Sep . 09amGMT - - 24.0n71.2w - - 125mph - - 941mb - - #28
Copy&paste 20.5n66.7w, 20.7n67.2w, 21.2n67.9w, 21.5n68.5w, 22.0n68.8w-22.5n69.1w, 22.5n69.1w-23.0n69.9w, 23.0n69.9w-23.5n70.7w, 23.5n70.7w-24.0n71.2w, pbi, meo, 24.0n71.2w-32.4n80.55w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~51hours from now to HuntintonIslandStatePark,SouthCarolina near HiltonHead
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Another half hour or so before 'the decision' is supposed to be made - L&M BETTER call me as soon as he finds out, LOL.

I'm ready here - and have a go bag by the door if needed, but I don't think it will be unless the trof stalls and we get a massive shift to the left.
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Quoting surfmom:
my home is coastal SWFL - and the suburban beach Hens get brought inside, in a huge Dog Carrier (Charlie et al) the barn I work is 35 miles inland -there we let the horse out in pastures that are debris free


They do well....I have about 60 chickens....and them nasty things aint comin in my house......but they are as prepared as I guess they can be already....Horses they get in the middle of the pasture during our horrendous thunderstorms and sit down....they seem to know what to do.
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Quoting breald:


Thanks surf. Let me know if you get thru.
LOL - hopefully, the track on the map will change -I'm concerned he may make a personal visit in the gulf w/98L

Okay I got my vocab words figured out -GRACIAS AQUA!!
duh - you'd think I'd have that down by now

COOOOPS!!!
- There you be~ was trying to stay on till you appeared - was curious what they are doing w/the ships. We're lucky to be chica's, means the nightshift shares : )
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Quoting Cotillion:


Well, I did say safest. Safe entirely in North America just from the way it lies and its weather patterns is very difficult.

But okay, I'll take your word for it.
no youre right all in all they are pretty safe comparatively
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548. 1965
Quoting InTheCone:
Fascinating discussion on Fiona this morning - this is an excerpt....


THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 KT USING RECON AND RADAR FIX POSITIONS.
FIONA APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED ITS RATE OF CLOSURE ON EARL LOCATED
TO ITS NORTHWEST. OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...THE DISTANCE BETWEEN
FIONA AND EARL HAS BEEN DECREASING BY ABOUT 100 NMI EVERY 12
HOURS...AND THE TWO CYCLONES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 750 NMI APART.
RIDDING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS OBVIOUSLY INCREASED...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF FIONA
FROM MORE THAN 20 KT DOWN TO THE CURRENT 12 KT IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE POSSIBLE CAUSE OF THE RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA
IS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOWS FROM BOTH CYCLONES CONVERGING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FIONA. THIS RIDGING MAY ALLOW KEEP FIONA FROM
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF EARL LIKE MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING NOGAPS...NOW SLOWS DOWN FIONA BY DAY
3...WITH THE CYCLONE POSSIBLY GETTING TRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS RESULT OF THESE NEW SCENARIO...A 96-HOUR POSITION HAS
BEEN ADDED AND DISSIPATION HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL 120 HOURS. IF
FIONA BECOMES A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
CYCLONE COULD SURVIVE AND END UP MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP OR EVEN
BECOME STATIONARY BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..EXCEPT SLOWER AT 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.


Earl has missed the opportunity to absorb Fiona. Fiona needs to be watched very closely. Contrary to the norm, if Fiona continues develop, it's westward hoe. Maybe the EURO should have stuck to it's guns.

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Sighs - retrieves second red basket from kitchen and puts it on the sideboard.

Aqua - how bout I make you up a go bag for brunch at work? :)

Speaking of - I've given up chasing you through the blogs - now darn it, tell me how you are liking your star ride!!!
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noticed speed up to 16mph now
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Is it any wonder the masses are are so confused when it comes to tropical threats? An article in the Wall Street Journal this morning--in fact, the topmost article on Google News at this moment--has the blaring headline "Hurricane Earl Weakens to Category 3 Storm", but then goes on to state that "A hurricane watch that had been effect for the North Carolina coast was nevertheless extended to the Virginia coast". IOW, despite the fact that Earl's barely hanging on now, what with his precipitous 5-knot drop in windspeed and all, which clearly makes him no longer a danger to anyone, officals for some reason not only kept up the current watches, but extended them.

Of course, the article goes on to state, "Earl is the fifth major storm and third hurricane of the current Atlantic storm season". Hmmm. That's a little like saying "I've been divorced five times, and married three times".

I know, reporters are reporters, and not meteorologists. But writing an article downplaying the real threat posed by Earl is pretty irresponsible, especially by a paper that's supposedly got some credibility. Or used to.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
Quoting traumaboyy:


Absolutely...about 45 miles as crow flies from coast......just worry about my Horses and Chickens...lol
my home is coastal SWFL - and the suburban beach Hens get brought inside, in a huge Dog Carrier (Charlie et al) the barn I work is 35 miles inland -there we let the horse out in pastures that are debris free
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Quoting smuldy:
Idaho has tornadoes and is also Idaho; and the whole PACWEST is an earthquake zone, much overdue, as well as a MAJOR Tsunami threat, also much overdue.


Well, I did say safest. Safe entirely in North America just from the way it lies and its weather patterns is very difficult.

But okay, I'll take your word for it.
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Quoting Cotillion:
That's why in one way I'm happy where I am.

Very rare to get anything, really. No volcanoes, no earthquakes, no avalanches, hurricanes are an exceptional rarity. Remnants we get a lot, but that's usually nothing too bad. Windstorms that pack enough of a punch only happen now and then. Tornadoes happen a lot, but beyond F1 is rare.

Flooding can be a constant threat, but it depends where you live. On the whole, nature wise, it's in a pretty sound spot.

The trade off is that there isn't too much sun...

I suppose in the US you could say perhaps the safest place would be like in Oregon or Idaho or some such place? In terms of weather or natural occurrences, I mean.


I would rather deal with Camille than your COLD!!!!!!
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Cotillion - yep, both of those area are fairly safe - except Oregon is rainy as all get out on the coast. Over on the dry side of the Sisters, it's really dry, as is most of western/southern Idaho (the L&M's home stomping grounds). There is a fault line in southern Idaho, but it's pretty rare for anything to even jiggle, much less rumble, LOL.
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Itis NOT looking good for us in Halifax, NS. Someone here mentioned that if it comes in during high tide in Halifax that it was "no big deal because Halifax is a sheltered harbour". Nothing could be further from the truth. When Juan came through in 2003 it destroyed buildings on the waterfront in Halifax. Hopefully people learned something.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


lol....history....How about New Madrid Fault Zone??


Sure, why not? lol
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(wipes sugar cookie crumbs off face, looks around- - grabs red basket of corn muffins and runs again)
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Quoting surfmom:
Post511 - No kidding - that is VERY interesting InTheCone

leads me to a refresh on a vocab word

the difference between a trough
and a ridge?


Good morning to you surfmom, always nice to see you!

I found the part where they were creating a ridge for Fiona very interesting - never heard of that before! Very unusual.

Also, the part where she may get trapped under the ridge, that is what the ECMWF was calling for a few days ago.

Going to be interesting to watch!

Have a great day - I'm out, time for a bike ride:)
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Quoting surfmom:
*giggle* it's why I live on a sandbar


lol

I'd much rather deal with the threat of hurricanes, myself.
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Quoting Cotillion:
That's why in one way I'm happy where I am.

Very rare to get anything, really. No volcanoes, no earthquakes, no avalanches, hurricanes are an exceptional rarity. Remnants we get a lot, but that's usually nothing too bad. Windstorms that pack enough of a punch only happen now and then. Tornadoes happen a lot, but beyond F1 is rare.

Flooding can be a constant threat, but it depends where you live. On the whole, nature wise, it's in a pretty sound spot.

The trade off is that there isn't too much sun...

I suppose in the US you could say perhaps the safest place would be like in Oregon or Idaho or some such place? In terms of weather or natural occurrences, I mean.
Idaho has tornadoes and is also Idaho; and the whole PACWEST is an earthquake zone, much overdue, as well as a MAJOR Tsunami threat, also much overdue.
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That's why in one way I'm happy where I am.

Very rare to get anything, really. No volcanoes, no earthquakes, no avalanches, hurricanes are an exceptional rarity. Remnants we get a lot, but that's usually nothing too bad. Windstorms that pack enough of a punch only happen now and then. Tornadoes happen a lot, but beyond F1 is rare.

Flooding can be a constant threat, but it depends where you live. On the whole, nature wise, it's in a pretty sound spot.

The trade off is that there isn't too much sun...

I suppose in the US you could say perhaps the safest place would be like in Oregon or Idaho or some such place? In terms of weather or natural occurrences, I mean.
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Quoting surfmom:
NEPTUNE & his Horses have me on ignore...I'm working on it


Thanks surf. Let me know if you get thru.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting traumaboyy:


lol....history....How about New Madrid Fault Zone??
lol apt mention given possibility of north eastern/mid atlantic hurricane lol
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Thanks - I need more sugar (NOT!) I really hate the sit and wait part....
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Absolutely...about 45 miles as crow flies from coast......just worry about my Horses and Chickens...lol


;)
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Quoting CoopsWife:
Gee TraumaBoy - I put breakfast out every morning, but I don't get any sugar cookies? :(

No time today for a good breakfast spread - coffee is on the sideboard and I made some corn muffins - watch out for the ones in the red basket - they have jalapenos in them, LOL.

Watch is up for my area this am, waiting to find out if the ships are headed for open water. So far, wind forecast is low enough to stay home.


You Girl....Help Yo Self!!
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Morning Surf - I'm just hoping that trof doesn't stall.....

and yes, OBX - Bonnie was in 98 - sat over the Pamlico sound and made it back up to a Cat 1 before heading back out right over my head, LOL. All in all, it wasn't a bad storm for us here in VaBeach.
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Quoting breald:
Morning all. I truly expected to wake up and see Earl's track more east. It looks like it moved a little more closer to me and I am still in the cone of doom. Where is the cavalry that is suppose to move this thing away from the coast?
NEPTUNE & his Horses have me on ignore...I'm working on it
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Post511 - No kidding - that is VERY interesting InTheCone

leads me to a refresh on a vocab word

the difference between a trough
and a ridge?
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Morning all. I truly expected to wake up and see Earl's track more east. It looks like it moved a little more closer to me and I am still in the cone of doom. Where is the cavalry that is suppose to move this thing away from the coast?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting KoritheMan:


Earthquakes frighten me greatly. I'm glad I don't live in an earthquake-prone area.


lol....history....How about New Madrid Fault Zone??
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.