Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting Cotillion:


Well, I could reverse it and say 90s are hell... but I'd be lying! The few occasions of experiencing it have all been pleasurable.



London... ick. Never liked the city, much better places in the 'Atlantic Archipelago'.

East Anglia does get hotter than the rest of Britain (and rains far less). A stifling heat, I suppose.
never been; gone to london, cardiff, newcastle, brighton, bath and dover,
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Well, I WAS leaving, until the rain came down... now I'm dashing out during a "light" moment.... wonderful day for driving.... [sarcasm on]... lol

l8r...
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It's so good to see a weaker Earl this morning!
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oh well, we will have another great beach day here today. Lots of jelly fish in the waters up here though.
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The 5:00 AM NHC discussion was very interesting in that it said the convergence between the Earl & Fiona outflows caused Fiona to put on the breaks. I never heard of this happening before. Fiona may stall out or do a loop several days from now. It looks like this would occur close to Bermuda. 98L still on track for more southerly track than prior 3 systems. Earl keeps nudging west. NC to the NE states have to be a little nervous at this point.
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Quoting surfmom:
gives me a bit of peace of mind - hard enough leaving them ride out the storm - I was never happy putting a halter with ID on that 'cause I worried about them getting caught up. Tag on the Tail has worked great - double insurance with the # on their butt


We are in a very rural area....all our neighbors have been our neighbors for two and three generations and we all love and own animals so there is not many places for them to go. Plus...my daughter who barrell races says if a Major Hits...she is loading up the horses and evacuating...lol
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StormW, they have been having issues since last night. Some were getting flash to work, others only Java. Right now flash is working for me.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Anyone else having a problem with the Satellite Services Division site?


Morning...

Yes... having some issues too.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
Hey Engine - maybe I should start the grill up and call the trof to supper? Got a big ship's bell I could ring to let it know it's time to head for home, LOL
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Earl has shrunk in size due to the ingestion of dry air which could be good and bad... Good in which its wet weather will be primarily confined to the E periphery of the HURR and bad that it could sustain its strength.

The current forecast track by NHC looks good, but will shift it East by 50 to 100 miles as the TROF expected to keep it out might be able to work together with Earl to erode the W periphery of the A/B High a bit more than expected.

Now in regards 98L... model support for CMC on developing 98L is starting to increase. As we discussed before a pattern shift after Fiona should start to take place so as to shift the focus to the Carib and and GOM type entries.

Fiona, might be able to survive if its says far behind from Earl to prevent its outflow from destroying her. Else, she'll have no chances of further intensification.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
Lets just all hope that trough isn't late for dinner or to tilted SW to NE!
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Quoting breald:
Morning all. I truly expected to wake up and see Earl's track more east. It looks like it moved a little more closer to me and I am still in the cone of doom. Where is the cavalry that is suppose to move this thing away from the coast?


its not coming,,prepare
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Quoting surfmom:

Invigorating??? LORDY - I would simply freeze up and die


Well, I could reverse it and say 90s are hell... but I'd be lying! The few occasions of experiencing it have all been pleasurable.

Quoting smuldy:
forget the cold, the heat there kills me. my friend's flat in london has those side mounted outward opening windows so even after buying an a/c (which seemingly very very few people had there) still was hot as hot gets inside cause no good way to seal everything off to keep the cold air in.


London... ick. Never liked the city, much better places in the 'Atlantic Archipelago'.

East Anglia does get hotter than the rest of Britain (and rains far less). A stifling heat, I suppose.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Looks like Earl eating his Wheaties this morning. Shouldn't say this but I will be happy when he passes my latitude.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


That's a great idea for the horses!
gives me a bit of peace of mind - hard enough leaving them ride out the storm - I was never happy putting a halter with ID on 'cause I worried about them getting caught up. Tag on the Tail has worked great - double insurance with the # on their butt
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Anyone else having a problem with the Satellite Services Division site?
morning-and it is working for me via my bookmark

edit:got a 404 on the float link and had to refresh too, came through fine once i did
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Quoting StormW:


It's back up now.


Morning Chief!!
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604. IKE
Quoting NovaScotia33:


Not good news for us Ike? I am far from an expert but I would assume that if it did hit land on the way up here that it would weaken it a bit? At any rate, I am happy that my friends in the USA will be spared this time around.


Yeah...you may have to face a hit.

I'm not saying the USA is spared a hit...just stating what the model shows.
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Link

From the main page of the Satellite Services page, you can see a few still images. The link above is from Puerto Rico; however, it does show Earl's eye and Fiona's position.
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Morning, Storm.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Anyone else having a problem with the Satellite Services Division site?


Yeah, but if you go back to TPC homepage and reload - than go to sat page it works. Thats what I have found.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS keeps Earl, the Pearl, offshore the entire ride up the east coast of the lower 48.

Good morning to all.


Not good news for us Ike? I am far from an expert but I would assume that if it did hit land on the way up here that it would weaken it a bit? At any rate, I am happy that my friends in the USA will be spared this time around.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Anyone else having a problem with the Satellite Services Division site?
Yes Storm last night it started
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The local news is all over Earl this morning. Well, they split it between the heat wave and Earl.

Seriously, where is this front that is pushing him out? Is it still on track?
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Quoting Cotillion:


Ah, Britain doesn't get majorly cold (though last year was unusually cold).

Now, I was in the middle of Germany last winter.

Now *that's* cold. However nothing quite so invigorating as walking around in -20C (-4F).
forget the cold, the heat there kills me. my friend's flat in london has those side mounted outward opening windows so even after buying an a/c (which seemingly very very few people had there) still was hot as hot gets inside cause no good way to seal everything off to keep the cold air in.
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I think the NHC folks have taken it down to stop wobblecasting for the day!! LOL
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Morning IKE - EARL - THE BLACK PEARL...... he's not the jewel you want in your treasure box or rolling up your coastal backyard

economically the last thing anyone needs is a 'cane tearing up one state or more
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Good morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
Quoting Cotillion:


Ah, Britain doesn't get majorly cold (though last year was unusually cold).

Now, I was in the middle of Germany last winter.

Now *that's* cold. However nothing quite so invigorating as walking around in -20C (-4F).


In Northwest Florida....we have a different word than invigorating for that particular weather event...lol
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Something to watch: If the Big E makes it past 75 W, before hitting 30 N, then I would be worried in NC!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Invigorating? I call that hell (though that's possibly oxymoronic, but who's keeping score?).


I suppose when you're used to 80-100F on a semi-regular basis, it would be.

The hell only comes when it's that cold with driving winds. That isn't fun.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Don't know what the folks down in the Bayou State or along the Texas Coast are feeling right now, but I suspect the humidity conditions are virtually intolerable right now.

TexasHoosier,
In Louisiana right now the humidity is 95% right now at 5:30 am. Like you, we are getting occasional hit and miss small rain. I pray a storm doesn't get into GOMEX. I fear it could really explode in size and intensity.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Ah, Britain doesn't get majorly cold (though last year was unusually cold).

Now, I was in the middle of Germany last winter.

Now *that's* cold. However nothing quite so invigorating as walking around in -20C (-4F).

Invigorating??? LORDY - I would simply freeze up and die
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Quoting 1965:

Attempt at humor. Clearly on its way to being the next storm.


Oh, good. I was gonna call you a troll. lol
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Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS keeps Earl, the Pearl, offshore the entire ride up the east coast of the lower 48.

Good morning to all.
Yes it does thankfully, but still throws some heavy rain and winds up all along it.
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Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS keeps Earl, the Pearl, offshore the entire ride up the east coast of the lower 48.

Good morning to all.


Mornin Sir!!
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582. 1965
Quoting KoritheMan:


What?

Attempt at humor. Clearly on its way to being the next storm.
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Quoting TexasHoosier:


I use the 20N/70W generalization for potential storm move into the GOM, either over Hispanolia/Cuba or thru the Florida Straits.

It looks like the future Gaston has a shot at it unless a big trough pulls it to the north.

One of the graphics posted shows a lot of very warm air or heavy in moisture coming into the GOM from the SE.

Let me tell you something. Here in Fort Worth the last two days and right now, the Dewpoint is 74 degrees and the temperature high yesterday was 99 degrees.

Folks, I have been living here for the majority of the last 21 years and I HAVE NEVER SEEN the dewpoint this high in August - never.

The atmosphere in North Texas and points south is loaded with moisture, yet we are only getting sporadic thunderstorms as popups on a daily basis.

Don't know what the folks down in the Bayou State or along the Texas Coast are feeling right now, but I suspect the humidity conditions are virtually intolerable right now.

The point to all this is if something gets into the GOM with a head of steam headed at TX/LA, there is just no telling how big or bad a hurricane could develop.

I just cannot believe with over 5 or six tropical waves destined to come this way over the next 2-3 weeks that one or two won't get in the Gulf and something bad will happen.

.....and I mean real bad.....

..... and that is not even considering the potential for development down to the south in the Gulf of Campeche or just north, south of the Yucatan.....


I think you're right. I HOPE you're not, but objectively, the facts point to a busy Caribbean/GoM very soon.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


My chickens all got names too....but I would get banned if I told you what I call em........all three of my neighbors get eggs on a regular basis..and they got horses..and my fence has been down for two days now...you can't blast my horses out of that pasture...they just have it to darn good...lol


That's a great idea for the horses!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey; just saw this. Currently in Nassau fair, partly cloudy, little to no wind. Pretty typical for this time of year. But the SE Bahamas is almost 500 miles away, so.... conditions there and in San Sal. are likely not as sanguine. I'll likely speak with a family member later today to find out what the weather was like down that way yesterday...


Hopefully not too bad. I wonder then RCS will pop up. Thanks for the update.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
578. IKE
Latest GFS keeps Earl, the Pearl, offshore the entire ride up the east coast of the lower 48.

Good morning to all.
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Hmmm... looks like some showers are headed towards Mayaguana right now.



I'm out for the day, and I'm hoping the weather stays reasonable. Yesterday afternoon we had some nasty weather here with heavy rain and gusty winds; hopefully we won't get even that bad today.

Have a good one, all!
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Quoting stoormfury:
morning
what i have noticed this morning is the steering currents for the time being will take most systems from the atlantic on a wnw then nw course course to the north of the ledder antilles and then curve out to sea. at the moment the caribbean and the gomex is relatively free, unless there is development in these areas. the upper level pattern is about to change with ridge getting stronger and flatter and will force atlantic grown stroms more on a west track


I use the 20N/70W generalization for potential storm move into the GOM, either over Hispanolia/Cuba or thru the Florida Straits.

It looks like the future Gaston has a shot at it unless a big trough pulls it to the north.

One of the graphics posted shows a lot of very warm air or heavy in moisture coming into the GOM from the SE.

Let me tell you something. Here in Fort Worth the last two days and right now, the Dewpoint is 74 degrees and the temperature high yesterday was 99 degrees.

Folks, I have been living here for the majority of the last 21 years and I HAVE NEVER SEEN the dewpoint this high in August - never.

The atmosphere in North Texas and points south is loaded with moisture, yet we are only getting sporadic thunderstorms as popups on a daily basis.

Don't know what the folks down in the Bayou State or along the Texas Coast are feeling right now, but I suspect the humidity conditions are virtually intolerable right now.

The point to all this is if something gets into the GOM with a head of steam headed at TX/LA, there is just no telling how big or bad a hurricane could develop.

I just cannot believe with over 5 or six tropical waves destined to come this way over the next 2-3 weeks that one or two won't get in the Gulf and something bad will happen.

.....and I mean real bad.....

..... and that is not even considering the potential for development down to the south in the Gulf of Campeche or just north, south of the Yucatan.....
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Quoting Cotillion:


Ah, Britain doesn't get majorly cold (though last year was unusually cold).

Now, I was in the middle of Germany last winter.

Now *that's* cold. However nothing quite so invigorating as walking around in -20C (-4F).


Invigorating? I call that hell (though that's possibly oxymoronic, but who's keeping score?).
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Quoting traumaboyy:


I would rather deal with Camille than your COLD!!!!!!


Ah, Britain doesn't get majorly cold (though last year was unusually cold).

Now, I was in the middle of Germany last winter.

Now *that's* cold. However nothing quite so invigorating as walking around in -20C (-4F).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Cotillion:
How's it for the Bahamas right now, Baha?
Hey; just saw this. Currently in Nassau fair, partly cloudy, little to no wind. Pretty typical for this time of year. But the SE Bahamas is almost 500 miles away, so.... conditions there and in San Sal. are likely not as sanguine. I'll likely speak with a family member later today to find out what the weather was like down that way yesterday...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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