Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 673 - 623

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

NGFDL track looks like a nightmare scenario to me.Hard to believe it could get any worse.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
671. KBH
Quoting ackee:
agree much further south too

any long range charts for 98L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have time Storm. I have until 0001 Friday LOL

I will look foward to your synopsis as always but even more so for the next 72 hours or so.

BTW.. "that trough needs to get its butt over here" I DONT like the sounds of that =/
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
storm is the expert but can tell you bastardi is and has been worried about the more west solution due to consitent model error east.. i am starting to think that no gaps track is very possible ..trough seems a little slow..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm, does the Nhc put all there forecasting faith in the models or do they look at all the variables in the environment. Looks 2 me they go on what the models say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


U of Hawaii satellite imagery. Great site!


yea, its a good one. I think it updates faster too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
agree much further south too
yeah it looks better than Fiona
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the impact will on NC coast and Cape Cod maybe the eastern portion of Long Island. Just due the way these areas stick out compared to the other Northern states.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


I'm liking what I see for me in coastal NJ.

---
12 Hours of Earl: Light blue (cyan) is your delineator between dry and wet.



---
U of Hawaii satellite imagery. Great site!

When you click on a java link, I recommend you copy and paste rather than click, and then you can manipulate the URL for the time period. "&period=720" is the norm and that's 12 hours worth of a loop. However, you can manually put in what you want there, say, 2880, for 48 hours of imagery. I've gotten as much as SIX DAYS worth of looping just from doing this.

---
Oh, and, Good Morning.


folks this storm is trending west some..Bastardi is very concerned that the models are in error east..and they have even shifted some..folks don't underestimate this storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With Earl, we'll probably have our usual media-hysteria along the coast. Then if it stays further east everyone will ignore the warnings the next time. ugh. In other words, I don't think it will be a case of lack of preparedness if Earl does come close to the Outer Banks.

There will be plenty of advance warning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
Pee on the Stings


ewww....on a public beach. I could get arrested for that...LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
mmm the models say Earl will head up the coast but boy is that cutting it close.Just a small wobble west now for Earl will put the eye overland.

No wonder the concern is there and rightly so.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah Chicklit if it wasn't for Earl 98L would have everyone peeing on it.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning. It is a busy week in the Atlantic!
IRLoop

98L is getting itself together this morning and will probably be the worst trouble maker of the three.


Very worried about that one.....Carribean and GOMEX....Trouble!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
652. ackee
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning. It is a busy week in the Atlantic!
IRLoop

98L is getting itself together this morning and will probably be the worst trouble maker of the three.
agree much further south too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here in DE, they are saying it's been downgraded to a Cat 3 and don't seem particularly concerned about it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning Folks.

OK I have a dumb question...

NGFDL as per the WU site is a doomcast. Is this even a possiblity or outlier?

NOGAPS as per the WU site is not as bad but still bad due tot he size of the windfield. Again, can it verify or is it out to lunch?

My OEM office has us on duty starting 0001 Friday until further notice and I am just trying to figure out everything. Since I will be on duty I loose say 12 to 15hrs prep. I have the furniture away and such but usually do a few other preps depending on potential. Dont need to board up the picture window if we will only see a light breeze sort of thing.

OEM is telling us the call up is for the possiblity of mass calls not for potential damages. So I am just trying to get ahead of this and get my duty crew prepared.

If either of those models verify, especially the NGFDL, then we go from paniced callers to all out OMG WTF!!

Just wondering....

Thanks
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418


98L (Look for TD today.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
ROTFL - 60 chickens LOL -well when you have 60 I don't think they're egg producing "pets" anymore. My Coop does have a "second story" in case of flooding, but my girls all have names - so I got attached. My hubby, a NYCityBoy, was not pleased.... the cat's drooled

I always marker the contact phone number on the horses during a cane or cane threat as well as tie ID tags on their tails - this way if the fences go down and they get lose it's a quick return


Another idea - use clippers to shave your # right into their coat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breald:
oh well, we will have another great beach day here today. Lots of jelly fish in the waters up here though.
Pee on the Stings
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Satellite wise Earl looking as good as he has ever been. Also looks to beheading just w of nw
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
643. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:


You have no idea how much I hope you are correct, Ike!


I remember around the 20th of August I was stating that it was showing nothing through the rest of August and that verified.

Yeah...I hope it's correct.

Latest NOGAPS scrapes the outer banks with Earl...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Well, I could reverse it and say 90s are hell... but I'd be lying! The few occasions of experiencing it have all been pleasurable.


**BigSmile**
dear COT
it's always good
TO BE HOT,HOT,HOT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. It is a busy week in the Atlantic!
IRLoop

98L is getting itself together this morning and will probably be the worst trouble maker of the three.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS shows a storm free GOM through Sept. 17th:)


May not get a drop of rain here the next 5 days......

Looks like here on Long Island I can get a couple of inches out of Earl, we need the rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well i'm out for a bit-stay safe everyone in earl and fiona's paths
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS shows a storm free GOM through Sept. 17th:)


May not get a drop of rain here the next 5 days......



You have no idea how much I hope you are correct, Ike!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
636. IKE
Latest GFS shows a storm free GOM through Sept. 17th:)


May not get a drop of rain here the next 5 days......

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dog has informed me it's time for a walk - then my run b/4 the sun re-heats the barely cooled asphalt - lovely morning here @77 degrees and humidity ONLY 88 percent - time to seize the day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
634. IKE
Latest GFS shows a storm free GOM through Sept. 17th:)


May not get a drop of rain here the next 5 days......

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tried to post radar of Fiona on Martinique radar oh well. Nice little spin.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
sat still down....grrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice eye clearing out again for Earl.....
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

Nice Water Vapor Loop of Earl and some of his players
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fiona
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
What are the chances of "Earl" regaining cat4 status?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
626. MahFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good morning. Looks like a potential disaster is unfolding for the mid-Atlantic and/or New England. I hope they're ready.


It won't be a disaster, and no they won't be ready if it is......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
gives me a bit of peace of mind - hard enough leaving them ride out the storm - I was never happy putting a halter with ID on 'cause I worried about them getting caught up. Tag on the Tail has worked great - double insurance with the # on their butt


I love it. I'm going to give it to some friends with horses for the next time we take a hit here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Anyone else having a problem with the Satellite Services Division site?
Morning Storm, yes I've noticed "url not found" on the floaters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Well, I could reverse it and say 90s are hell... but I'd be lying! The few occasions of experiencing it have all been pleasurable.



London... ick. Never liked the city, much better places in the 'Atlantic Archipelago'.

East Anglia does get hotter than the rest of Britain (and rains far less). A stifling heat, I suppose.
never been; gone to london, cardiff, newcastle, brighton, bath and dover,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 673 - 623

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.