Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 723 - 673

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Negative NAO forecast to linger on through first and second week of september.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Yeah, gordy. That lil bugger has trouble written all over it.


Hi Chicklit- I honestly wasn't giving you a hard time. I'm an amateur weather fanatic, too old to go back to school, so I love studying Wunderground. I am stumped on psr, and can't "Sound it out". Maybe I need more coffee :) I live in Deefield Beach, and just keeping an eye on things. By the way, do you have horses? You said something the other day that made me think so. I am going for my weekly riding lesson this morning. Jumped for the first time last week! Have a good day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see Fiona is now moving slower than Earl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like SAL wont be an issue for 98L once its past 50W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting apocalyps:
Earl seems to wobble towards Florida

Florida is doom.... not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chicklit one to watch for sure. But like I said earlier I'll be glad when Earl goes out to sea or at least gets past me . I thought we would see all hell breakout when Storm mentioned Omega block.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Earl seems to wobble towards Florida
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
0z ukmet
120hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
713. KBH
floaters on noaa for 98L not working, anyone got alternative site?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, gordy. That lil bugger has trouble written all over it.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
Looks like 98L is singing to Sal, all you are is dust in the wind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
710. MahFL
Nice cold CDO around the clearing eye on Earl, I bet he goes back upto 135 mph......
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3547
Quoting MahFL:


or a Cat 2 100 miles offshore and weakening......


The more likely scenario but don't take my word for it.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
708. ackee
where will Earl track

A very close outer banks
B 100 miles off outer banks
C over the outer banks
D further out to sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
707. maeko
Quoting P451:


White vinegar does the trick!



also, rub the area with sand before applying vinegar, etc. it helps remove any clinging tentacles.

98L is becoming healthier and the models are all over. it's also slowed down. i'll be watching this one closely.

Earl seems to refuse to play nice with forcasted tracks. if i was in the OBX or Sandbridge, VA, i'd start getting ready to go.

remember in a mandatory evacuation, the authorities will not let you go against out bound traffic to pick up anyone who needs assistance. they need to be with you before the order is carried out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
706. MahFL
Quoting Chicklit:


CAT 3 into Outer Banks.


or a Cat 2 100 miles offshore and weakening......
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3547


98L Invest
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
NGFDL is a worst case East Coast Scenario. Would keep all the beaches on the NW quad for the ride. Smacks NC and rides the I-95. Not being a doomer here but if it actaully did that track NYC is underwater. The topography of the NY Bight would cause a surge far worse then the catagory calls for. It is almost a perfect right angle thus the surge would pile up then unfortunatly the only way it has to go is up... up the Hudson, East and Raratan Rivers. Dont look for help from LI Soinds. Winds out of the E and NE would cause the Sound to drian into the east River and down into lower Hudson Bay thus creating again, a larger surge.

Uggg this stinks.

(notice one thing, I didnt say it would happen, I just spoke about topography and wind direction following the NGFDL model as per the WU site. No doom casting here)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
To my untrained eye, the 11:10 UTC image has Earl looking like a cat 4 again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
God storm, let the panic begin. Nice observation as usual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
700. KBH
Quoting P451:


Been thinking it for days: Earl could be a coastal rider.

One thing we can think of this season so far is that for nearly every storm the models have had a northern bias. The storms have consistently (mostly) gone more west and more south than the models indicated.

West or South side of the guidance has proven true quite frequently this year.

If that continues to prevail with Earl? NC is in trouble.

seems the models on going based on previous storm tracks too heavily. Which model gives a ensemble of all models taking in history as well as current conditions?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


I had that on Monday but Tuesday was perfectly clean for some reason here in NJ.

I think Danielle's swells were the culprit here. They brought the jellies in - and then when the swells went north so did the jellies I'm guessing. You should be cleaner today although given SNE's coastline being oriented the way it is maybe they get trapped there versus NJ where they just passed through.

Watch the red's - I still can't believe I saw a basketball sized one on Monday.



You should have seen it here in staten island before we had huge white jelly fish and this hurt like hell when they stung you... As well as last year there were the huge reds like hundreds of basketballl sized ones amazing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I won't have anything more definitive until I get a chance to sit down and do a thorough analysis. What I don't like is, the trof out west is a little stronger looking, and is pumping the ridge...and the ridge looks almost like an Omega Block...which will block any northward motin right now. You can also see in water vapor, to Earl's N-NNE how he appears to be aiding the ridge east of him to nose in more.

WATER VAPOR LOOP
Ok thank you Storm - as always I appreciate it
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Goodmorning, StormW Ive noticed more SAL over the Atlantic. Will that be staying around for awhile, to help keep down TC developement?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WarEagle8:
chicklit, what is a psr?

LOL... yall quit giving her a hard time. Just sound it out. haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
bastardi..hot off the presses...

WEDNESDAY 7 AM
NO CHANGE ON EARL IDEA... YET.

We do have a couple of landfalling global models now.. the UKMET which has the Edna option, but the No Gaps goes to the 1944 option, something that is quite extreme but is there because of the models idea on phasing. Obviously the move I will make, if I become convinced is the Edna idea of crossing Cape Cod, But I outlined all this last night.

I want to again point out my worry about Fiona not getting caught in Earl. The only way I think that can happen is if it simply dies. The 06z UKMET is now showing that Fiona misses getting pulled into Earl. I will need to see a visible to see if the center is out from under convection. There was a coupling of the center with thunderstorms this morning and a pressure fall, but since then it has become disjointed

In the meantime, I think the system further east will be Gaston. This is slowly growing on its way west and though the models dont see it, I dont see why it should just go away.

It is no secret as to what happened to set the season off, I outlined it for you a few weeks ago when explaining why it had not started. The "mistake" I made was not figuring how hot it would get in Canada this summer, which plainly distorted the playing field for the tropics. But look what happened.. once pressures rose, the cool came ( and went) and the season started. More cool will come and go the next 10 days, and the response may be 3 more names in that time. Given the tendency for La Nina seasons to be back waited, not only will be seeing impact points with Earl ( probably scored a cat 1 or 2 hurricane on the NC coast, then again New England) but we could be at 8 or 9 storms by Sep 10, the traditional mid point of the hurricane season with what should be a back weighed period to follow. Perhaps that 18-21 may not be so bad afterall, even though the big concern will be the impact forecast.

And I want to again remind people, that the forecast is for storm impact and allows for the " double" impact. That is figured in. I threw a fit in the office when someone decided to change that to "landfall". That is not what I am forecasting. The 1944 hurricane did not make landfall at Atlantic City, but the town was almost destroyed. So what do you do, say they werent hit by a hurricane? My great white whales will be getting my hurricane power scale as the go to descriptive scale, force the competition into an impact forecast to see who can give the most meaningful information, and get my objective classification scale to be what we go to.. so we dont turn into a bunch of theologians arguing over how many angels we can sit on the head of a needle.

Wanna ride bikes??

ooops sorry A.D.D moment. Happens more often with me nowdays

How about this.. Hot enough for you?

Notes and asides: Its been a top 5 hot summer from the plains east for the US. What I want the media to do, is instead of accepting propaganda on what this may mean, I think they should demand to know from the people that put out the AGW line on such things, that issued a cool summer forecast, how they didnt see the warmth coming. Lets answer that question first, before we tell everyone what they know.. that it was hot.

As I said before, that forecast is a better one for next summer

ciao for now ****

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:


CAT 3 into Outer Banks.


Well the way things are going ( forecast wise )at least we will have about 1 hour to prepare before a possible landfall. Although trying to hang plywood in 100mph winds may be difficult. Maybe the NHC forecasters will lend a hand?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chicklit see what a jelly fish sting can cause.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
chicklit, what is a psr?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:


This one could be a psr.


Good Morning folks! I have been really busy and of course when im busy the tropics heat up LOL.
Chicklit~ YIKES... this could definately be the trouble make for us.

All of you on the east coast, hope your prepared for the worst but expecting the best. Praying Earl stays far away from yall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AnneBytheSea:


Good Morning! What is psr? Thanks!


Means could be wicked trouble.

Am sure I'm not the only one with a bad feeling about 98L. Others on here will give you the technical reasons to watch this one.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
crown weather.com

Now, what about the forecast track and the implications of the forecast track. Earl is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 16 mph this morning. I expect Earl to continue on this northwest track today into part of Thursday. Starting sometime Thursday afternoon or evening, Earl is forecast to start turning to the north and then north-northeast by Friday morning as it starts to interact with a trough of low pressure tracking into the northeastern United States. There are some small, but important differences in the model track forecasts for Earl. The GFDN, UKMET and NOGAPS models forecast the center of Earl to track right over eastern North Carolina and then track right over eastern New England. The other track model guidance is further east, keeping the center of Earl just offshore of both the North Carolina coast and the New England coast. It should be noted that the track consensus guidance forecasts that Earl will cross the 70 West Longitude line somewhere between 40.3 and 41.1 North Latitude. This has been a shift both to the west and north in terms of the track guidance.

One thing to note about the trough of low pressure that is forecast to track eastward into the northeastern United States is both trending slower and stronger with each new model cycle. If this trend continues, then you may see the track for Earl shift further west and a track right over Cape Cod and eastern Maine is a very real possibility.

For now though, my thinking is that Earl will track about 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras late Thursday night, then track north-northeastward passing about 70 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts Friday night before potentially tracking into the Bay of Fundy during the predawn hours of Saturday morning. It will not take much of a shift westward to bring Earl across Cape Cod and eastern Maine.

This type of track will bring hurricane force winds to the outer banks of North Carolina for a while Thursday night with tropical storm force winds expected on Thursday night into Friday morning across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and coastal Maryland and Delaware.

Up here in New England, hurricane force winds are possible Friday night across Cape Cod and the islands and also across coastal Washington and coastal Hancock counties in Maine. Tropical Storm force winds are possible Friday night into Saturday morning across the rest of coastal New England.

I expect Hurricane Warnings to be posted for the North Carolina coast later this morning and Hurricane Watches to be posted for parts of the New England coast sometime today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
as for the jelli stings any acid will do uric acid is the best but anything acidic will do.

The reason the jelli sting lasts is because it has microscopic barbs and stays put on the skin long after the tentical is removed.

The acid kills the tiny cells and they stop giving off their poision.

After the acid wash, if still at the beach, wet seaweed wrap. If at home, wet a dish towel with a saltwater solution and wrap.

Repeat as necessary until the stinging is gone. May take up to 3 to 4 treatments. After the stinging is gone, let rash site air dry then apply a good topical cream or ointment made for poision ivy or other skin allergen. NO STERIODAL CREAM. I cant stress that enough. The steriod will cause the body to react and will increase the discomfort.

Hope this helps.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Quoting Chicklit:


This one could be a psr.


Good Morning! What is psr? Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm do you think the trough is in position right now as to where the models were saying it is? Also do you think it has the proper orientation to keep this off the coast? Thanks!
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
682. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST. HURRICANE
EARL WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND PASS JUST EAST OF
THE OUTER BANKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OFF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

..............................................

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 340 AM WED...CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE. MID/UPPER 60S GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
17...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WEST OF 17. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE ON THURSDAY AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES. WENT WITH
HPC FOR THE QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT. TAPERED POPS FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE COASTAL PLAIN TO GOOD CHANCE OUTER BANKS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN CHANCE COASTAL PLAIN TO LIKELY ON THE OUTER BANKS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. EARL WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY SO ENDED RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUICKLY AS WELL. IN FACT I HAVE NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 19Z WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF EARL
AND WINDS BACKING TO WEST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF EARL.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thx Jason

Thought the track and turn was a little tight!! but like everyone im hoping it stays out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
NGFDL track looks like a nightmare scenario to me.Hard to believe it could get any worse.


CAT 3 into Outer Banks.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB...WHICH IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER.
HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 116 KT...WHICH WAS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM
THE SFMR WERE UNDER 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO
110 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

EARL IS MOVING 310-315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT. FOR THE NEXT 36 OR
SO...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE END OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET FORECAST THE
CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE
CENTER OFFSHORE. THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER
OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM. ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...THE
HURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAS GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND HAS A
GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...EARL IS
EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. SOME SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
THIS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS EARL ENCOUNTERS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 24.0N 71.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 74.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.3N 75.2W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.6N 74.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 50.0N 61.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/0600Z 57.0N 58.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
With Earl, we'll probably have our usual media-hysteria along the coast. Then if it stays further east everyone will ignore the warnings the next time. ugh.


Same thing Ivan and Dennis did to a bunch of former New Orleans dwellers I know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


This one could be a psr.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
Quoting Hhunter:


folks this storm is trending west some..Bastardi is very concerned that the models are in error east..and they have even shifted some..folks don't underestimate this storm


What did Joe say about the track error?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 723 - 673

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.