Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting LADobeLady:
Having had to evacuate 3x in the past 6 years I thought I would share this link again for anyone thinking of evacuating with animals. This link is a life saver for me because you can search for hotels that accept large breed dogs. Remember just because it says it's "dog friendly" doesn't mean they accept large breed dogs. Many have weight restrictions of 25-50# and a restriction on how many animals you can bring. http://www.bringfido.com/


I'll add a note to this - check out your state parks - many here in VA have cabins, not just campgrounds, and they do allow 2 pets in most of them- no size restrictions, but must stay on leash outside.
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Quoting ncleclerc:
Chicklit, what site did you get this info. Thanks


www.nhc.noaa.gov
NavySite
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
TD could form at any time.

It seems this one is a hurry.

Might show LO on the 12z ATCF when it comes out (next 30-60 mins).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
768. ackee
seem like 98L may be TD#9 later today or tonight
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1375
Chicklit, what site did you get this info. Thanks
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Another storm,
another lesson.


Without internet and satellite views, we here on Providenciales
Turks and Caicos would not have any idea that a category 4 Hurricane
had passed nearby last night.

We had hardly any rain or wind.

The lesson:
What an amazing difference DRY air can make.

If you see those satellite views where there is a large area of Dry air,
and a distinct line where that dry air is adjacent to a hurricane.
It really is that way. The effects stop at that line.

The experience of people on Grand Turk, which is 70 miles to my SE
had squalls and a worse impact, but here it was basically a non event.

In addition I will say it was EXCELLENT that the authorities did NOT
put us under any hurricane watch or warning! It must have been tempting,
since it looked "so close". However, in my opinion the danger of future complacency
caused by setting warning levels too high outweighs other risks.

I will couple the above with the lesson I have learned concerning preparation.
Forecasters from the NHC (and others worth their salt) will always say:
The prudent person will always prepare for at least one category above the forecast warning.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
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Having had to evacuate 3x in the past 6 years I thought I would share this link again for anyone thinking of evacuating with animals. This link is a life saver for me because you can search for hotels that accept large breed dogs. Remember just because it says it's "dog friendly" doesn't mean they accept large breed dogs. Many have weight restrictions of 25-50# and a restriction on how many animals you can bring. http://www.bringfido.com/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
760. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
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EARL
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758. 900MB
Quoting aimetti:
Watching closely on south eastern CT shoreline.

It seems no one really cares about the storm up here.


The models are really starting to move west.

Hoping it just goes out to sea.


I hear ya! Those models have tightly clustered pretty far West. Will be in Montauk tomorrow morning, from what I hear, not much reaction or anticipation out there.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Reedzone glad StormW is working on it.Should be very interesting to see his analysis.If omega block formed, utter chaos would break out. This is one of the scenarios put out about the ultimate disaster of a labor day hurricane.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918


Fiona L8R
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Watching closely on south eastern CT shoreline.

It seems no one really cares about the storm up here.


The models are really starting to move west.

Hoping it just goes out to sea.
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I think Earl might start to strengthen again not very much though more models are shifting to the coast
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no problem folks

=)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Quoting DestinJeff:
Excellent look on Shortwave

Link



The upper flow to the west of Earl seems to be almost due west toward Florida.
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Quoting lennit:
Fiona 998 mb


And moving towards the WNW.
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747. IKE
...FIONA INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 1
Location: 18.2°N 60.9°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
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Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
744. MWH
Quoting animalrsq:


Another idea - use clippers to shave your # right into their coat.

another idea for horses, I tie rope type halters with leather shoe strings and attach the tag to it. This is strong enough to lead them around but will break quickly if they get hung up. Right now though, I plan to take mine out in the morning as I am on the southern outer banks and my new barn has not been hurricane tested yet.
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Quoting reedzone:


Whats interesting, and StormW pointed this out, the trough is pumping up the ridge, so the ridge is building more. This is terrible news for the East Coast. Looking at the animation on the model runs from last night to this morning. The models have indeed shifted a good 100 miles west. Wonder if these trends will continue?
I have to tell you the local meteorologists here on LI were doing so well the first few days letting local viewers to pay attention, but the attention to this has really dropped off. They are downplaying this for a miss, which it may very well be in the next few days, but there are still so many variables. I'm a little disappointed in them.
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482


just so yall can get a good scope on the size of earl outer bands just coming into picture.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Fiona 998 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
739. IKE
5:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 1
Location: 24.0N 71.2W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
.........................

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 1
Location: 24.5N 71.6W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb

..............................

Moved .5N and .4W. Pressure up 2 mb's.
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Quoting Engine2:
Reed I'm leaning towards your thoughts here - this is all about timing and the forward speed of Earl. Could get interesting


Whats interesting, and StormW pointed this out, the trough is pumping up the ridge, so the ridge is building more. This is terrible news for the East Coast. Looking at the animation on the model runs from last night to this morning. The models have indeed shifted a good 100 miles west. Wonder if these trends will continue?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
Quoting rhodesk75:
What is a psr?
See post 729
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Reedzone, which arrow line are you thinking is the more likely to happen and I know again this could all change. Thanks!
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What is a psr?
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Quoting Bonedog:
psr

add an I between the p and s and a second S then add ER between the s and the r

wink wink


Geeze.... Got it, thanks :]
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Thanks Bonedog, I was wondering why Russian nobility was being discussed on the weather blog.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting AnneBytheSea:


Hi Chicklit- I honestly wasn't giving you a hard time. I'm an amateur weather fanatic, too old to go back to school, so I love studying Wunderground. I am stumped on psr, and can't "Sound it out". Maybe I need more coffee :) I live in Deefield Beach, and just keeping an eye on things. By the way, do you have horses? You said something the other day that made me think so. I am going for my weekly riding lesson this morning. Jumped for the first time last week! Have a good day!
You have mail.
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Quoting reedzone:
My 3rd run on Earl form last night.. Showing some factors on why I believe this will be an extremely close call or a direct hit for the Northeast.

Photobucket
Reed I'm leaning towards your thoughts here - this is all about timing and the forward speed of Earl. Could get interesting
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
psr

add an I between the p and s and a second S then add ER between the s and the r

wink wink
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Quoting IKE:
A touch of fall in the long-range, from Mobile,AL...

A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SINKING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STALL BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 90 TO 93 DEGREES. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 58 TO 63 WELL INLAND...
AND THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHERN ZONES.
Thats outstanding!
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727. KBH
Quoting KBH:
floaters on noaa for 98L not working, anyone got alternative site?
Quoting KBH:

any long range charts for 98L?

as no one bothered to answer, I found somecharts on 98L that maybe useful to others
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=9&year=2010&title=98
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My 3rd run on Earl form last night.. Showing some factors on why I believe this will be an extremely close call or a direct hit for the Northeast.

Photobucket
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
Any more thoughts on Invest 98? Curious to hear about this weather development.
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724. IKE
A touch of fall in the long-range, from Mobile,AL...

A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SINKING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STALL BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 90 TO 93 DEGREES. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 58 TO 63 WELL INLAND...
AND THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHERN ZONES.
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Negative NAO forecast to linger on through first and second week of september.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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