Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1123 - 1073

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Good morning to all from a sunny Puerto Rico. I hope everyone is well and if you are in the possible path of Earl, you are doing everything needed to stay safe.

It is back to normal here, HOT, power is back on, and the sun is out in full force.
I just got to my apartment in San Juan and was surprised to see how the forest behind it was pretty beat up by Earl. I passed the storm in Eastern Puerto Rico, where it was supposed to be pretty bad and wasnt after all, so I was in shock to see how much worse it was in San Juan.

On TD 09... I guess its safe to say that none of the models out now are worth anything, right? I mean, they didnt call for it to develop at all and it has, so until the correct info is put in and they actually see it forming, the cone the NHC will put out is the only thing to look at.

What is you guy's handle on this new storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...hot link keeps changing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
On satellite Earl jogged left.


Link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NASA101:


WOW, you already know 98L is going to hit South Florida? LMAO!!


No I am not saying its gonna hit SFL. If you had read my comment, I am asking some of the people on this blog that are more knowledgeable, many of them are FSU Meteorology students, for info and informed comments on it. I am not wishcasting anything, trust me, after Wilma, I never want to go thru that again. My prayers are with the folks in the Carolinas and New England. Some of them have no clue whats about to hit them. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1118. 900MB
Quoting barotropic:


Yes, well you would beg to differ if you had 400 employees you sent home to prepare for a hurricane, 60 hours in advance and then 40 hours in advance if the storm turned away from you, you'd be screaming why did you issue the warning so far in advance. Of courrse multiply that by 100's of thousands of business's and you get the idea.
My bet is the director of the National Hurricane Center knows more than you and I. Dont you think?


I was talking about a "watch" not an evacuation :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Melagoo:


That cold front will not allow Earl to hit the USA but NOVA SCOTIA is royally screwed


Thanks I think...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
Question of the day... will Earl be PORT (bad) or STBD (good) of Track.







He's been port of track all week it seems ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tampa77:
Good morning,

I am the HR Manager and oversee the business continuity for my company. I am no stranger to preparing for inclement weather. I have heard mention of most New England states, but CT has not really been discussed. We have a location in New Haven. I'd like to have some idea of what we may expect in that area and what to prepare our employees for. I have sent out a memo urging them to stay tuned to their local weather stations and to take any neccessary precautions. I would think torrential rains, possible flooding, and a potential for tropical winds may be likely. Again, maybe CT has not been mentioned for a reason? Any input is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

I would take it that your list of essential employees is
Quoting TampaTom:


Eastern CT is in the three day cone, and, as such, you should be paying close attention to Earl. Depending on how far east Earl travels, CT could see TS force winds and heavy rains with high waves and possible coastal flooding. Should Earl track further west, you could see much worse of an impact.

Here's the link to CT's Emergency Management division:

http://www.ct.gov/demhs/site/default.asp
Quoting TampaTom:


Eastern CT is in the three day cone, and, as such, you should be paying close attention to Earl. Depending on how far east Earl travels, CT could see TS force winds and heavy rains with high waves and possible coastal flooding. Should Earl track further west, you could see much worse of an impact.

Here's the link to CT's Emergency Management division:

http://www.ct.gov/demhs/site/default.asp

Get out that list of essential personnel without whom critical business operations cannot be performed; give the receptionist, window washers and interoffice mail delivers the day off. And from personal experience I can tell you a few of your employees may refuse to evacuate their homes until they see the water creeping through their walls. And if all other options fail,guess on whose doorstep they may end up on?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The dry air out in front of Earl really isn't too stable with lifted index values in the negatives throughout much of it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What the heck is 98L doing out there, it really made me think of hurricane Gustav in the set up of the 3 storms out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1112. 7544
looks like earls about to make a nother jog west again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1110. Melagoo
Quoting FloatingCity:
OMFG...its going to wipe out the eastern seaboard!!!!


EARL will be creating an entire new look that is for sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest N-17 satellite pass showing a very well-defined closed eyewall. I expect some re-intensification today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1108. Vero1
StormW~~

...after returning from 3 great consecutive missions into Earl. It appears that the DC-8 successfully captured the rapid intensification phase of Earl...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On satellite Earl jogged left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1106. Melagoo


That cold front will not allow Earl to hit the USA but NOVA SCOTIA is royally screwed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


KOMPASU

Hi HadesGodWyvern. I live in S. Korea, and right now we are already being impacted by Typhoon Kompasu.

And also, wow! Three tropical cyclones (in the ATL) again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Earl isn't, imo, all about what "category" it will be as it nears the OBX's, or whether it actually makes landfall. Sure, all of that is quite important, but it can miss, and miss by several miles and still be devastating.

This blog and the NHC needs to start talking about the water event. Look at the wave readings nearer the storm - 47 ft and above! That's incredible. Earl's a fairly big storm - large windfield, pushing a lot of water. Tropical storm force winds extend either side for just over 200 miles.

Yup, dry air, some shear may inhibit, but even the good Doctor said on his show yesterday that he didn't expect Earl to weaken significantly, at least not until he makes his departure further north.

We've got to stop thinking about these systems in terms of hit or miss science - there's considerably more to consider.




LARGER VIEW LINK
does that say a 47 foot wave? thanks in advance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question of the day... will Earl be PORT (bad) or STBD (good) of Track.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1101. NASA101
Quoting mara0921:
Ok I am gonna get ready for work put would really apprecaite those of you on here that are knowledgeable about Fiona and Invest 98. The new NGFDL has Fiona over south florida on monday and they one behind it ( what will that name be anyways ? ) look menacing for SFL. Thanks


WOW, you already know 98L is going to hit South Florida? LMAO!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1098. Skyepony (Mod)
The 96hr surge forecast java loop for The Carolinas, VA, DC..the mid Atlantic coast. See some 5ft surges in there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok I am gonna get ready for work put would really apprecaite those of you on here that are knowledgeable about Fiona and Invest 98. The new NGFDL has Fiona over south florida on monday and they one behind it ( what will that name be anyways ? ) look menacing for SFL. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They were quick with TD9. Didn't think that'd happen 'til much later today.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1095. Vero1
GRIP

Plan of the Day for DC-8
DC-8 Plan of the Day
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
DC-8 (Times in EDT)

Wednesday,Sep 1 - Science flight

0900 Power on/access
1030 Preflight brief
1130 Door close
1200 Take off
2000 Land

1000 14Z Science telecon
1200 16Z Tri-Agency Forecaster telecon

Thursday,Sep 2 - Media Day &
...
Plan of the Day for Global Hawk
Global Hawk Plan of the Day
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Global Hawk (Times in PDT)

Wednesday,Sep 1 - Thursday,Sep 2
For flying EARL on Thursday-24 Hour Flight

0700 14Z Science telecon
0900 16Z Tri-Agency Forecaster telecon
0900 - 1700 Fuel/weigh A/C - Mech/Elec Preflight
1900 T-0 Meeting
1930 PIs Show at...
Plan of the Day for WB-57
WB-57 Plan of the Day
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
WB-57 (Times in EDT while aircraft in Tampa)

Wednesday,Sep 1 - Science Flight
1000 14Z Science telecon
1200 16Z Tri-Agency Forecaster telecon
1600 Take off

Thursday,Sep 2 - Science Flight
1000 14Z Science telecon
1200 16Z Tri-Agency Forecaster telecon...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1094. Engine2
We should have the 12z NAM soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1093. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


KOMPASU
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, some stuff you won't touch with a 10 foot pole, although tempted. I have before and got the axe. So now I know my limits **holds up stubbed index finger** and I don't push them. I think you get more latitude because everyone knows you wouldn't put something vulgar or obscene here on purpose, and you add so much. Think of how dumb we all would be without that chart!


Shhhh! (Don't mention the chart!!!!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, some stuff you won't touch with a 10 foot pole, although tempted. I have before and got the axe. So now I know my limits **holds up stubbed index finger** and I don't push them. I think you get more latitude because everyone knows you wouldn't put something vulgar or obscene here on purpose, and you add so much. Think of how dumb we all would be without that chart!
Good morning KanKun. Looks like 98L/TD9(?) might be paying us a visit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1090. Vero1
GRIP

Forecast Summary
Tropical Areas of Interest Forecast for August 31 2010
08/31/2010 - 11:48
The DC-8 has a no-fly day today, after returning from 3 great consecutive missions into Earl. It appears that the DC-8 successfully captured the rapid intensification phase of Earl. It will be ramping up for missions again Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoon. The Global Hawk is being tasked to fly tomorrow and Thursday over the storm, and the WB-57 may be able to fly its first mission into Earl on Wednesday, due to mechanical issues with the plane that delayed science missions. So while no GRIP aircraft are currently flying, Wednesday and Thursday should be active days for flights...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all. I think what I'm seeing is that Fiona may turn westwards again? Storm, chance that it will slip thru under Fl and get into the Gulf? and what is going on with 98l?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1088. ssmate
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Earl isn't, imo, all about what "category" it will be as it nears the OBX's, or whether it actually makes landfall. Sure, all of that is quite important, but it can miss, and miss by several miles and still be devastating.

This blog and the NHC needs to start talking about the water event. Look at the wave readings nearer the storm - 47 ft and above! That's incredible. Earl's a fairly big storm - large windfield, pushing a lot of water. Tropical storm force winds extend either side for just over 200 miles.

Yup, dry air, some shear may inhibit, but even the good Doctor said on his show yesterday that he didn't expect Earl to weaken significantly, at least not until he makes his departure further north.

We've got to stop thinking about these systems in terms of hit or miss science - there's considerably more to consider.




LARGER VIEW LINK
Good points.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tampa77:
Good morning,

I am the HR Manager and oversee the business continuity for my company. I am no stranger to preparing for inclement weather. I have heard mention of most New England states, but CT has not really been discussed. We have a location in New Haven. I'd like to have some idea of what we may expect in that area and what to prepare our employees for. I have sent out a memo urging them to stay tuned to their local weather stations and to take any neccessary precautions. I would think torrential rains, possible flooding, and a potential for tropical winds may be likely. Again, maybe CT has not been mentioned for a reason? Any input is appreciated. Thanks in advance.


Eastern CT is in the three day cone, and, as such, you should be paying close attention to Earl. Depending on how far east Earl travels, CT could see TS force winds and heavy rains with high waves and possible coastal flooding. Should Earl track further west, you could see much worse of an impact.

Here's the link to CT's Emergency Management division:

http://www.ct.gov/demhs/site/default.asp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1086. SLU
Coincidentally, we have MH Earl, TS Fiona and pre-Gaston. All starting with the same letters as that classical parade in late-August to early-September 1996.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models look....

Confused.
12z Dynamic for TD9
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there an archive of the model run maps that wu puts out .If some one could post a link i would shure appreciate it thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 09, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 352W, 30, 1006, TD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1079. WxLogic
There we go... TD#9.

In regards Fiona... based on the last 6 to 9 HRs... the A/B High has been building a bit stronger between Earl and Fiona. So will not be surprised that between the outflow of Earl and the building High NE/N of it that it could potentially be kept on a more Westerly direction just like what Danielle did to Earl during its initial development.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1078. SLU
I believe you may have to go all the way back to MH Edouard, MH Fran, TS Gustav and MH Hortense in 1996 to find the last time that four consecutive tropical waves emerging off West Africa all developed into tropical cyclones.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridiancanuck:


Yesterday on the podcast Dr. Masters said something about maybe a week or two of quiet. Where'd that go!?

Maybe he was looking at one of the GFS models?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Once again:

National Hurricane Center Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives,
mitigate property loss,
and improve economic efficiency


by issuing the best watches, warnings,
forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather,

and by increasing understanding
of these hazards through global outreach.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mission.shtml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1075. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
"And remembah....

Mood spelled backwards is DOOM."

The GEM model has something aimed at Texas this weekend...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Earl isn't, imo, all about what "category" it will be as it nears the OBX's, or whether it actually makes landfall. Sure, all of that is quite important, but it can miss, and miss by several miles and still be devastating.

This blog and the NHC needs to start talking about the water event. Look at the wave readings nearer the storm - 47 ft and above! That's incredible. Earl's a fairly big storm - large windfield, pushing a lot of water. Tropical storm force winds extend either side for just over 200 miles.

Yup, dry air, some shear may inhibit, but even the good Doctor said on his show yesterday that he didn't expect Earl to weaken significantly, at least not until he makes his departure further north.

We've got to stop thinking about these systems in terms of hit or miss science - there's considerably more to consider.




LARGER VIEW LINK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1073. Tampa77
Good morning,

I am the HR Manager and oversee the business continuity for my company. I am no stranger to preparing for inclement weather. I have heard mention of most New England states, but CT has not really been discussed. We have a location in New Haven. I'd like to have some idea of what we may expect in that area and what to prepare our employees for. I have sent out a memo urging them to stay tuned to their local weather stations and to take any neccessary precautions. I would think torrential rains, possible flooding, and a potential for tropical winds may be likely. Again, maybe CT has not been mentioned for a reason? Any input is appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1123 - 1073

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.