Earl maintaining Category 4 strength; hurricane watches for North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:44 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hurricane watches are now posted for coastal North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl continues towards the west-northwest at 13 mph with little change in strength. Currently, the outer reaches of the storm are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, and NOAA's Wavewatch III model is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves are affecting these islands. Early this morning, waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet. Winds at Providenciales in the Turks were only 20 - 25 mph this afternoon, though Cockburn Town and Balfour Town in the extreme eastern Turks may be seeing winds near tropical storm force--40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent visible satellite loops show that the southwest side of Earl is getting eaten into by wind shear and dry air. The storm is no longer as symmetrical as 24 hours ago, and the spiral band on Earl's west side has been destroyed by dry air. Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show some moderately dry air to Earl's southwest, and very dry air to the northwest. Once Earl works its way farther to the northwest, it is possible that the persistent moderate wind shear will be able to drive this dry air deep enough into Earl's west side to significantly disrupt it. However, none of the models is predicting this, and Earl is probably large and strong enough to fend off this sort of assault. I give a 30% chance that a major dry air intrusion will significantly disrupt Earl between now and Thursday, weakening it to a Category 2 hurricane. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 - 20 mph for a day or so. There is no evidence that Earl has weakened, though, based on the latest pressure of 940 mb from the Hurricane Hunters. It is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are pretty unified in taking Earl 100 - 200 miles off the coast of North Carolina, then 150 - 300 miles off the coast of Southeast Massachusetts, then into Nova Scotia. The high degree of model unity gives confidence that this is the correct solution, but it is good to keep in mind that the average error in a 48-hour NHC forecast is about 125 miles. It is likely that Earl will bring a 15-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 15% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 5% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 8% for Eastport, Maine, and 14% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.

Next update
Dr. Rob Carver is planning an update late tonight, and I'll have a full update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1321 - 1271

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Quoting RMM34667:




Hey there, you hear from your sister yet? Everything okay?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
All the "new" money spent on "preparedness" - moot, if the powers that be can't explain expanding windfield, surge.

Let's this thing get closer, or even make a landfall, with 25-35 surge - folks are going to ask, "Where was the warning?"

And, that may warning may come indeed; but when? When it's quite close? Sorry, that's not "preparedness" but rather money mis-spent.


Hmmm MLC, while you wait for more data and updates... go make yourself a fresh drink.. and go watch the video in Comment #10 in my blog :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


There will be some flavor of Fujiwhara effect...typicvally, ieht two systems of roughly equal strength, they will circle each other around a center point and eventually combine; in this case, Fiona will orbit Earl until Earl consumes her


It kind of makes me wonder if Earl might fling Friona inland for a bit as it scoots up the coast. I didn't see any of the models mentioning that possibility, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RMM34667:
1210. moonlightcowboy 2:32 AM GMT on September 01, 2010
"...la te dah, la te dah, Earl's gonna miss a landfall! La te da!"

+1

And it wasn't a browser issue once the offending post (and the quote of that post) was removed the problem did too. The post somehow changed the code.


LOL but I edit my post to say:

EDIT: when the offending post was quoted AGAIN I open Chrome and the problem went away. But my edited post didn't make it after hitting post. Might explain the BLOG EATING POST comments. Guess all the browser have their own problems. lets see if this makes it on the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


It's Sharona! And it is EATING MY BRAIN!


Shouldn't take very lo.....

never mind



KIDDINGGGGGGGGGG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Why havn't people figured that water is the biggest danger with these storms? Folks questioning whether to get off the outer banks. Well DUH they are sand bars. Give me a break. No matter what, parts of the only road are going to be gone and power knocked out.



Shen, thanks - so right!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


Probably got the server hung up, I don't think it could change the code and we're still using it.


Huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At the same time, what I'm looking at may not be Fiona at all, since Fiona is so weak, at any rate it doesn't really matter where it goes, because Fiona will likely be no threat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1313. leo305
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Evening All.

Earl picking up speed to the NW, right of the forecast track, good thing for points northward.

Fiona, not showing any signs of wanting to tag along ATM. Wonder if Earl will leave her behind.


actually the faster it moves the more west it may go, since the trough is what is supposed to turn it North east.. going faster isn't good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emeraldcoast:
Quoting FLdewey:
Great.
Now I've got "My Fiona" in my head.
Ma Ma Ma Myyyy Fiona.

Arrrgh! Why did I read this? Now I also have "My Fiona" brain agony :(


It's Sharona! And it is EATING MY BRAIN!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:

I just stopped.. now it's on again.

Dag namit.


Ma ma ma my fiona... grrrrrr


AAAACKKKK It's killing me!!! must... turn... on... Wagner!!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna be a longtime to get good HH data



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


All well and good, but you were approaching from a non contextual stance.
Most people are not as concerned with the technical explanation or definition of how the hurricane hit them, they are more concerned with the effects of it. Perhaps it matters to some and so, your information was useful, but mostly, when we (who have been through a few of 'em ) say we got hit by a hurricane, we pretty much know what it means.
So when you walk up to a guy with his household goods on his lawn and when he tells you it was a direct hit and you try to correct him with the proper NHC term, you may find another definition for "direct hit".


Just saying people will say they got a direct hit from a hurricane yet they live hundreds of miles away just because they got a rain band from it. It also makes them feel a little better about themselves if they say that. I've been through 2 hurricanes that I can recall for me it wasn't that bad but for others horrible.
Member Since: April 20, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 561
Looking at satellite, Earl is really hauling butt on pretty much a NW or maybe even NNW path. It's almost at the next forecast point and is actually east of it for a change (wasn't supposed to get there until 6z).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:


anybody can post images


not on chrome
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
All the "new" money spent on "preparedness" - moot, if the powers that be can't explain expanding windfield, surge.

Let's this thing get closer, or even make a landfall, with 25-35 surge - folks are going to ask, "Where was the warning?"

And, that may warning may come indeed; but when? When it's quite close? Sorry, that's not "preparedness" but rather money mis-spent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1305. luigi18
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 010238
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THE METEO FRANCE GUADELOUPE-MARTINIQUE RADAR MOSAIC WAS VERY HELPFUL
IN IDENTIFYING THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FIONA. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A
RATHER SHAPELESS BLOB...AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED ALONG AN AXIS
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 35 KT BASED ON THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
RECORDED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF EARL IS EXPECTED
TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS. THE
SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 3...
CAUSING DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHANCE...
HOWEVER...OF MINIMAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE INCREASING
SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
ESTIMATE...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER...290/17 KT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT FIONA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD WITHIN A STIFF SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER BERMUDA AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.9N 59.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.7N 62.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 21.2N 64.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.4N 66.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 35.0N 66.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

never ending story hurricanes dont know how to read
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening All.

Earl picking up speed to the NW, right of the forecast track, good thing for points northward.

Fiona, not showing any signs of wanting to tag along ATM. Wonder if Earl will leave her behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


LOL. Hey, Oss and I were just posting the facts as they've been presented.

The closer Earl gets to shore, landfall or not, is only insignificant if there's not surge. There will be surge, significant surge, even miles aways with a miss. If he manages to get even closer (models seem to be debating now - heckuva a CONUS high pressure, with a lil ol' trough coming - tilted), things could get a bit ugly, even if surge is reduced by 2/3's.
Why havn't people figured that water is the biggest danger with these storms? Folks questioning whether to get off the outer banks. Well DUH they are sand bars. Give me a break. No matter what, parts of the only road are going to be gone and power knocked out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My bad folks on that video :( I resized it and hopefully it fixed the issue. Tried to remove it but it would not let me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


People still use I.E.???
Which stands for Inept Explorer...

Not bad, Earl. Not bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1300. FLdewey
Quoting emeraldcoast:
Quoting FLdewey:
Great.
Now I've got "My Fiona" in my head.
Ma Ma Ma Myyyy Fiona.

Arrrgh! Why did I read this? Now I also have "My Fiona" brain agony :(

I just stopped.. now it's on again.

Dag namit.


Ma ma ma my fiona... grrrrrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...FIONA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



09, Earl isnt speeding up is he? You good with the numbers. May make a good weatherman one day! Or a great bookie lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Crappy...but 98L:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11424
So the new cone makes it look like Earl should never make landfall in the U.S. Good news.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1296. will40
Quoting truecajun:


oh. i don't have the upgraded membership so I can't post images anyway.


anybody can post images
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
1295. Walnut
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


Hmmm... when is the recon due to get there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:


I hope folks don't take to sight seeing. Those rogues waves will take a toll on top of the predicted levels. Scary stuff that many overlook. Don't need a direct hit to feel the pain....... Good to see ya MLC!

Note to folks, the HWRF/WRF is a newer model from 2007, per the description if ya click the pic.





Sad people don't take this serious in here your presenting facts thanks.
Member Since: April 20, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 561
Quoting RMM34667:
1210. moonlightcowboy 2:32 AM GMT on September 01, 2010
"...la te dah, la te dah, Earl's gonna miss a landfall! La te da!"

+1

And it wasn't a browser issue once the offending post (and the quote of that post) was removed the problem did too. The post somehow changed the code.


Probably got the server hung up, I don't think it could change the code and we're still using it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Great.
Now I've got "My Fiona" in my head.
Ma Ma Ma Myyyy Fiona.

Arrrgh! Why did I read this? Now I also have "My Fiona" brain agony :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1290. luigi18
She probably make it to the Caribe she is a winner
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 010238
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THE METEO FRANCE GUADELOUPE-MARTINIQUE RADAR MOSAIC WAS VERY HELPFUL
IN IDENTIFYING THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FIONA. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A
RATHER SHAPELESS BLOB...AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED ALONG AN AXIS
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 35 KT BASED ON THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
RECORDED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF EARL IS EXPECTED
TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS. THE
SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 3...
CAUSING DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHANCE...
HOWEVER...OF MINIMAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE INCREASING
SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
ESTIMATE...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER...290/17 KT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT FIONA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD WITHIN A STIFF SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER BERMUDA AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.9N 59.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.7N 62.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 21.2N 64.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.4N 66.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 35.0N 66.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1288. Relix
FIONA

10PM: 16.9N 59.4W
8PM: 16.8N 58.7W

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a PC, the website is fine, go back to weather
I think another model moved over the US I really hope this Bandwagon falls apart
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1286. centex
IE wins the day again. IE rules. If it breaks IE it is broken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Mac has a super F5 key.... It never wears out and it lights up on the pro.... XD
Amen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mcampb2811:

Don't have a Mac but use Chrome and it is fine for me.

That might be it, I'm using Google Chrome for my browser as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


LOL. Hey, Oss and I were just posting the facts as they've been presented.

The closer Earl gets to shore, landfall or not, is only insignificant if there's not surge. There will be surge, significant surge, even miles aways with a miss. If he manages to get even closer (models seem to be debating now - heckuva a CONUS high pressure, with a lil ol' trough coming - tilted), things could get a bit ugly, even if surge is reduced by 2/3's.


Ohhh you did not mention you were in cahoots with OSS, watch yourself... he is dangerous... especially when he has been thinking... which luckily is not that often :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fatlady99:


I see you finally got my point. 'Nuff said.


Well, that makes no sense, but I'm done with this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I love how TWC channel keeps saying "The Carolina's" and northward needs to watch this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1210. moonlightcowboy 2:32 AM GMT on September 01, 2010
"...la te dah, la te dah, Earl's gonna miss a landfall! La te da!"

+1

And it wasn't a browser issue once the offending post (and the quote of that post) was removed the problem did too. The post somehow changed the code.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Winds out of the north on the west side of the storm will not bring much surge. Eckman flow will draw water to the east. The highest tides may be at Providence, RI and the south shore of Cape Cod, where winds will be SE ahead of the storm for a while.


Earl may even take the water out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am a solutions architect of over 10 years building web applications, and I can tell you from a technical point of view...

- IE sucks bad in terms of standards support and speed
- FF is good but slow and bloated with add-ons but a great browser
- Chrome owns the show, perfect browser from a technical standpoint
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ive been saying all along, the models are crap with fiona, and Fiona will move into the Caribbean.

However, Fiona may dissipate anyway before it has a chance to move into favorable conditions, even if it does continue to push well south of forecast as Ive been expecting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


There will be some flavor of Fujiwhara effect...typicvally, ieht two systems of roughly equal strength, they will circle each other around a center point and eventually combine; in this case, Fiona will orbit Earl until Earl consumes her


awwwww, aqua love at it's best
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOVArules:


Once you go mac, you never go back :p


Mac has a super F5 key.... It never wears out and it lights up on the pro.... XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...FIONA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1273. Ossqss
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Hello, friend! Nope, not good. Even a miss won't be good!


I hope folks don't take to sight seeing. Those rogue waves will take a toll on top of the predicted levels. Scary stuff that many overlook. Don't need a direct hit to feel the pain....... Good to see ya MLC!

Note to folks, the HWRF/WRF is a newer model from 2007, per the description if ya click the pic.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IHHEOTBS:


I never said Earl was a fish. I just wanted people to understand the real definition of it not something fantasized by this blog.


All well and good, but you were approaching from a non contextual stance.
Most people are not as concerned with the technical explanation or definition of how the hurricane hit them, they are more concerned with the effects of it. Perhaps it matters to some and so, your information was useful, but mostly, when we (who have been through a few of 'em ) say we got hit by a hurricane, we pretty much know what it means.
So when you walk up to a guy with his household goods on his lawn and when he tells you it was a direct hit and you try to correct him with the proper NHC term, you may find another definition for "direct hit".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1271. leo305
Earl speeding up isn't a good thing for the U.S
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1321 - 1271

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.