Category 4 Earl headed for a close brush with North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:16 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

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Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Earl is pulling away from Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is eyeing its next potential landfall--North Carolina's Outer Banks. Earl brought heavy rain and high winds to Puerto Rico and much of the northern Lesser Antilles yesterday, though it appears that the islands were spared major damage. One exception may be Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon yesterday, and Earl's south eyewall probably brought sustained winds of 100 mph to the island. Second hardest hit was probably Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Winds in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained above tropical storm force (39 mph) for five hours yesterday afternoon, peaking at 52 mph, gusting to 62 mph, at 4:49 pm. Heavy rains hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5 - 7" occurred. Earl brought waves of sixteen feet to San Juan, and waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet early this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Earl, taken at 10:30am EDT 8/31/10. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar. Isolated regions of 5 - 7 " of rain occurred in three locations on Puerto Rico. The rays fanning out to east from the radar location marked with a "+" are due to mountains blocking the view of the radar.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Earl, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday, but should not appreciably affect Earl, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 -20 mph for a day or so. However, the storm will probably regain strength after completing this cycle, and it is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Tuesday, August 31, 2010 runs of NOAA's GFDL model (left) and HWRF model (right). Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 knots) are predicted to stay off the coast. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect coastal North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to small portions of the coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts. It is likely that Earl will being a 12-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 12% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, western Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 4% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 5% for Eastport, Maine, and 11% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is speeding west-northwest towards Hurricane Earl, but is unlikely to bring tropical storm force winds to the Lesser Antilles. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in some of the outer bands this morning, but remains limited near the center. Wind shear is currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and the main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm.

Forecast for Fiona
Fiona is moving quickly to the west-northwest, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By tonight, Fiona will be beneath Earl's upper-level outflow channel. Strong upper-level winds from Earl's upper-level outflow and a ridge of high pressure to the northwest of Fiona will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona tonight through Friday, and probably arrest the storm's development. The scenario now called for by all the models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and turn to the northwest. Fiona will pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and will probably not bring tropical storm force winds to the islands. Fiona should then continue to the northwest and then turn north, passing very close to Bermuda on Saturday morning. It is possible Earl could destroy Fiona through high wind shear before Saturday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Fiona. High level cirrus clouds flowing out from the center of Earl as part of its upper level outflow can be seen starting to impinge upon the western side of Fiona's circulation.

Danielle is dead
Tropical Storm Danielle has succumbed to the cold North Atlantic waters, and is no longer a tropical storm.

98L
A new tropical wave (Invest 98L) moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is centered a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. Strong easterly winds from the African Monsoon are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear, and the disturbance is currently disorganized. A large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and this will interfere with development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days, and some slow development of 98L is possible as it moves westward at 15 mph. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and none of the computer models develop it.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of 98L.

A rare triple threat in the Western Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, we have an unusual triple feature--three named storms all within 700 miles of each other. A 3-way interaction between these storms is occurring, making for a very tough forecast situation. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which hit Okinawa today as a Category 2 typhoon. Kompasu is expected to recurve northeastward and hit North Korea on Thursday as a Category 2 typhoon. It is unusual for a powerful typhoon to thread the tight Yellow Sea and hit North Korea, and I don't know how prepared they are for strong typhoons. Kompasu is expected to hit the most populous region of North Korea, but the country is pretty mountainous, and a significant storm surge disaster is probably unlikely. In the South China Sea, Tropical Storm Lionrock and Tropical Storm Namtheun are moving through the straights between Taiwan and China towards each other. Neither are predicted to develop into typhoons, but heavy rains are occurring in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, further exacerbating the flood conditions China has suffered this summer.


Figure 6. An unusual triple feature over the Western Pacific--three simultaneous named storms all within 700 miles of each other. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I may have a short update this afternoon, once the latest models runs are available.
Jeff Masters

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1233. jscs
Quoting TallyMike:
The so - called "shift to the west" on the Weather channel just aired and it was based on the 2pm advisory-no news there.......


Not true, actually. TWC said, about 20 minutes ago, there will be a 'possibly significant' shift to the west on the 5pmEST update. I only confirm this because they should be held accountable if incorrect.
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1232. angiest
Quoting Bonz:


Should make the NW turn at 70, so it looks like around 5-6 o'clock Eastern time tonight.

It had BETTER make that turn.

It's a bit breezy here today in S. Florida. And hot. Always hot.

We didn't top off the gas tank today and plan on doing so tomorrow. Hope I didn't jinx myself. *grin*


Maybe, just maybe, a hint of more northward motion showing up on satellite. Too soon to say if it is anything other than my imagination. Hard to tell since Earl looks to have recently fired off some fresh convection in that direction.
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1231. myway
Quoting oceanblues32:
I am in southeast florida and i keep hearing about this westerly track and if the trough doesnt pick it up those in florida should be peeing their pants do i have anything to worry about with earl?


The answer from Boca Raton is highly unlikely.
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I think that if you're looking for info about tropical weather and how it may effect you the smart thing to do is to listen to the following in this order:
1. NHC
2. Your local authorities
3. Dr. Masters
4. Anyone else of your choice on the Internet, be it weatherguy03, JB, Levi, StormW, me(lol), etc.
.
.
Use #3 and #4 to supplement what the NHC says. To me, this is just plain old fashioned good advice. Not knocking anybody, not even JB.
.
.
To each his own though, and if you want to trust your life/family/property to some guy on the Internet over the NHC, you can do that.


How about this? I use my own judgment and evaluate what I have been presented by various sources over the time I have been watching storms. I think I am more than capable of comparing and contrasting what information I have been provided with and determining what has been correct, and what has been BS. I value what Storm has provided me. As a matter of fact, I value it more than what Doc Masters has provided me, which I see as mostly a regurgitation of what the NHC has stated.

Let me ask you this question. Do you honestly think that the NHC, even if it were to see Earl riding the coast from SC to Maine as a Cat 2-4, would release that information prematurely? You have to think in terms of economic, political and emotional impact. This is labor day weekend coming up. Our economy is in the crapper and the NHC, local authorities and local Mets certainly don't want to induce panic.

However, someone like Storm, whose clients would certainly want as much advance warning as possible, is more inclined to not hedge his bets, and deliver the straight scoop.

My take on it.
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1229. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
07L/MH/E/C3
MARK
21.89N/68.53w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55648
1228. Vero1
1203. StormW

Thanks StormW.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Some day for weather nuts. Earl and Fionna are putting on a show. Part of Fiona heading for Earl other part determined to visit Caribbean. Although the more I look at Earl with the mslp lines in place it's going to be a close call as to which way he goes. Of interest look at Miami radar in motion all weather is moving quickly to the sw although i say clouds are only 15-20m feet high.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
1224. angiest
Quoting TallyMike:
The so - called "shift to the west" on the Weather channel just aired and it was based on the 2pm advisory-no news there.......


At 2PM there was no adjustment to the forecast track. That will not be updated for another hour.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Earl has a better chance of hitting new york than florida so please, trolls be gone


AMEN!!!!!
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Earl has a better chance of hitting new york than florida so please, trolls be gone
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Quoting TankHead93:
Why did Earl weaken?


Some dry air is being entrained into it as well.
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1220. angiest
Quoting TerraNova:


Eyewall replacement cycle under way.


Already?
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1219. Bonz
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Earl is Still Heading WNW... When will he resume NW motion


Should make the NW turn at 70, so it looks like around 5-6 o'clock Eastern time tonight.

It had BETTER make that turn.

It's a bit breezy here today in S. Florida. And hot. Always hot.

We didn't top off the gas tank today and plan on doing so tomorrow. Hope I didn't jinx myself. *grin*
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
According to 24-hr Marine Sfc Forecast, the weakness left by Danielle will be closed soon.



WATER VAPOR already shows the weakness becoming less amplified, moving laterally now - meaning, imo, its influence on Early will become significantly less. What's left to steer Earl then? At this point, only its natural coriolis motion, and the two influencing high pressures - the Azores high bridging westwards, and the CONUS high bridging seastwards.

That leaves only the approaching CONUS trough(s) left to influence steering - plus, whatever variables the approaching Fiona may cause.

I'm expecting Earl to slow more, weaken somewhat with the dry air infiltration, and consequently, continue towards the coastline. After that, we'll have to see how quickly the CONUS trough gets to the seaboard, how amplified it is. And early on, just my initial take, is that it looks like the trough is not going to be as amplified, and seems to be becoming more tilted itself swest to neast. And, imo, that delays the erosion of the CONUS high, allowing Earl to possibly make landfall.

Definitely gonna be a timing thing. And, certainly folks in the way of his possible strike should be getting their plans finalized.

Not doomcasting - just what my novice eyes are seeing.


Excellent analysis ... we need more doom in this forecast, or else people will become complacent. Mother Nature has the ability to surprise, easily.
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The so - called "shift to the west" on the Weather channel just aired and it was based on the 2pm advisory-no news there.......
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1215. TheMom
Quoting pilotguy1:


NE Florida doesn't have much to worry about either unless EVERYONE is wrong..........other than the trolls.
Thanks Pilot I was a little doing the Scooby Doh Arhh head turn at that left turn but the majority here also are seeing that turn so I am not putting up the plywood ... just telling the cousins in NewPort News and Raleigh to have supplies ready now and not wait.
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1214. 900MB
Jokey Smurf Met on CNN said the Northern movement has started and that he is confident that it will now move off the coast. What an idiot!!!
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Quoting TankHead93:
Why did Earl weaken?


Eyewall replacement cycle under way.
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1211. srada
Hello Dr. Masters,

Do you see the track shifting west at the 5pm update due to the models trending back towards the west?
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Quoting StormW:


It all depends on the surrounding environment, and physical and thermodynamic actions going on with a particular storm. Some I've seen do it in about 4 hours, others have taken up to 12 hours. I really don't think there is anything written in concrete on it...


dont forget that some have never ended... they just sit there trying to close off a new eyewall with cocentric eyewalls forever
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1207. shauntanner (Admin)
Listen to Dr. Masters on the Hurricane Haven now! Listen here!
http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html

Questions for Dr. Masters can be asked here and heard on the air by going to the link above.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Now if i was a Person Who Lived in Florida and Didnt See the Forcast Track and Saw a Satelite photo of earl near the bahamas.. i Would be peeing in my pants....

Its Getting Really too close... Its Creating Beautiful Weather.

Hopefully this Turns NW so this doesnt slam into the east coast (Fl,Ga,SC,NC,VA)

The "Calm" before the storm! LOL
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Why did Earl weaken?
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Quoting shauntanner:
Listen to Dr. Masters on the Hurricane Haven now! Listen here!
http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html

Questions for Dr. Masters can be asked here and heard on the air by going to the link above.



ok
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1201. jscs
Here goes TWC with their 4pm EST newscast. Shifted West and starting the uncertain panic.
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Our local mets have been hinting to a disturbance near the CV Islands that could become Gaston. Looks like the tropics are becoming quite active, Sept. 1st starts tommorow.Look out everyone, there they blow.
Member Since: July 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


+1


This could be the funniest quote of the day...LOL!!
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1198. EricSFL
What happened to "oil slick man" ?
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1197. IKE
Birmingham,AL. long-term....

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A REALLY NICE WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THANKS
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AS A BROAD UPPER TROF
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT WILL CERTAINLY
FEEL LIKE A START TO THE FALL SEASON AS LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
50S SUNDAY AND MORNING MORNINGS. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE AT
THE BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT WAS BELOW 60 DEGREES WAS MAY 19. THE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
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The Great 2010 African Wave Factory is cranking them out at high volume, with no letup in sight. Wow...

Click for larger image:
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
1195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
the show hurr. haven is about to start here is the link

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55648
1194. TheMom
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Not at All... If Anything Extreme NE Florida Should Worry About it.

Umm thanks?
Love,
NE Florida
:-) No really I want to be warning my cousins not myself.. ;-)
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1193. bird72
Quoting StormW:


No, no, no...the term is meteorologist...tropical meteorologist.


Sir I really appreciate your knowledge, forget the jealous guys. I'm a Civil Engineer, I'm smart enough to discern between correct and incorrect data, and you gave very good data. DR. Master also give good info. Haters gonna hate not matter what. So, keep the good work.:)
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 19:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2010
Storm Name: Fiona (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 19:27:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°37'N 57°10'W (16.6167N 57.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 293 miles (472 km) to the NE (34°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 737m (2,418ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:19:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb



Fiona is strengthening


Wow fiona is a fighter.
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I'll say this about Senior Chief Tropical Meteorologist StormW:

I've been watching/learning for a couple of years now and have noted that his forecasting has been as good IF not better than what I've seen come out of the NHC. He is also a very polite and professional "internet guy", more than I can say about some others that are "experts" on this site. Is he perfect, NO. BUT, at least he will admit it when he steps in carpola with both feet. Something that I sure haven't seen the NHC do....

Semper Gumby Chief!
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1190. will40
Quoting Chapelhill:
Hazel is the strongest hurricane to hit NC as a cat4 back in 1954.



Yes and i lived through that nasty Lady
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
1189. 2COOL
I can not help but to personally thank StormW for the many comments for the past 5 years, intelligent and concise, that have helped me and others who were in precarious and sometimes dangerous situations. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

I have always hated that part of a storm....you know it's coming, you've made preparations...and then you just wait


A company where I worked announced a layoff the night before, and we had to wait all day to find out who got the axe. I was sitting there thinking, "I've had this same exact feeling before but where?".

Then I remembered sitting in our house in S. Louisiana as a kid, with a flashlight in hand and the sun shining in around the plywood on the windows, waiting for Hurricanes.

Yeah, the eerie waiting.....
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 19:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2010
Storm Name: Fiona (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 19:27:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1637'N 5710'W (16.6167N 57.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 293 miles (472 km) to the NE (34) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 737m (2,418ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (46) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114 at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NE (46) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23C (73F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21C (70F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:19:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb



Fiona is strengthening
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Quoting BA:


there are other people that do it, nhc is not unique in that respect...however, your point is taken in the respect that many of the incorrect forecasts put out here just get dusted under the rug and nothing is said about being wrong...I'm talking even from the top bloggers, not comments


Who else puts out a five day forecast track besides the UKMET office?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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