Category 4 Earl headed for a close brush with North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:16 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

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Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Earl is pulling away from Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is eyeing its next potential landfall--North Carolina's Outer Banks. Earl brought heavy rain and high winds to Puerto Rico and much of the northern Lesser Antilles yesterday, though it appears that the islands were spared major damage. One exception may be Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon yesterday, and Earl's south eyewall probably brought sustained winds of 100 mph to the island. Second hardest hit was probably Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Winds in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained above tropical storm force (39 mph) for five hours yesterday afternoon, peaking at 52 mph, gusting to 62 mph, at 4:49 pm. Heavy rains hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5 - 7" occurred. Earl brought waves of sixteen feet to San Juan, and waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet early this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Earl, taken at 10:30am EDT 8/31/10. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar. Isolated regions of 5 - 7 " of rain occurred in three locations on Puerto Rico. The rays fanning out to east from the radar location marked with a "+" are due to mountains blocking the view of the radar.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Earl, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday, but should not appreciably affect Earl, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 -20 mph for a day or so. However, the storm will probably regain strength after completing this cycle, and it is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Tuesday, August 31, 2010 runs of NOAA's GFDL model (left) and HWRF model (right). Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 knots) are predicted to stay off the coast. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect coastal North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to small portions of the coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts. It is likely that Earl will being a 12-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 12% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, western Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 4% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 5% for Eastport, Maine, and 11% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is speeding west-northwest towards Hurricane Earl, but is unlikely to bring tropical storm force winds to the Lesser Antilles. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in some of the outer bands this morning, but remains limited near the center. Wind shear is currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and the main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm.

Forecast for Fiona
Fiona is moving quickly to the west-northwest, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By tonight, Fiona will be beneath Earl's upper-level outflow channel. Strong upper-level winds from Earl's upper-level outflow and a ridge of high pressure to the northwest of Fiona will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona tonight through Friday, and probably arrest the storm's development. The scenario now called for by all the models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and turn to the northwest. Fiona will pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and will probably not bring tropical storm force winds to the islands. Fiona should then continue to the northwest and then turn north, passing very close to Bermuda on Saturday morning. It is possible Earl could destroy Fiona through high wind shear before Saturday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Fiona. High level cirrus clouds flowing out from the center of Earl as part of its upper level outflow can be seen starting to impinge upon the western side of Fiona's circulation.

Danielle is dead
Tropical Storm Danielle has succumbed to the cold North Atlantic waters, and is no longer a tropical storm.

98L
A new tropical wave (Invest 98L) moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is centered a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. Strong easterly winds from the African Monsoon are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear, and the disturbance is currently disorganized. A large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and this will interfere with development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days, and some slow development of 98L is possible as it moves westward at 15 mph. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and none of the computer models develop it.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of 98L.

A rare triple threat in the Western Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, we have an unusual triple feature--three named storms all within 700 miles of each other. A 3-way interaction between these storms is occurring, making for a very tough forecast situation. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which hit Okinawa today as a Category 2 typhoon. Kompasu is expected to recurve northeastward and hit North Korea on Thursday as a Category 2 typhoon. It is unusual for a powerful typhoon to thread the tight Yellow Sea and hit North Korea, and I don't know how prepared they are for strong typhoons. Kompasu is expected to hit the most populous region of North Korea, but the country is pretty mountainous, and a significant storm surge disaster is probably unlikely. In the South China Sea, Tropical Storm Lionrock and Tropical Storm Namtheun are moving through the straights between Taiwan and China towards each other. Neither are predicted to develop into typhoons, but heavy rains are occurring in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, further exacerbating the flood conditions China has suffered this summer.


Figure 6. An unusual triple feature over the Western Pacific--three simultaneous named storms all within 700 miles of each other. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I may have a short update this afternoon, once the latest models runs are available.
Jeff Masters

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INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
OBX Plan for the Week:
Today: Stay calm. Follow the preparations on Patrap's blog and additional suggestions posted on this one - get 100% ready. If you know how far you can drive in a day, make hotel reservations or find friends/family that can put up with you for a few days.
Wed: Stay calm. Help out your neighbors, because they will wait.
Thurs 2-4am: Stay calm. If still coming your way, pack the bambinos in the station wagon and head inland.
Thurs 8-10am: Stay calm. Stop at a greasy spoon for food and gas. Charge the ipods.
Thurs 10am-2pm: Stay calm. Stop for lunch and find a city park for the kids to play. Charge the ipods.
Thurs 2pm-6pm: Stay calm. Find a hotel early in the day - take the kids to the pool. Find the liquor store. Charge the ipods.
Thurs night relax and watch.
Friday: Now you can worry about what's next.
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
Post 27 and 35. Levi, I think what you are seeing is an eyewall replacement cycle. You often see a dry mout around the old eyewall before the EWRC is complete. Remeber Wilma as a good expample of this. The shear is out of the southwest so it is not advecting the dry air to the storms NW into the core. I just don't see any evidence of dry air in the core of the stom, if their was it would be on a much faster weakening trend and not holding a reasonably steady intensity. You can see arc clouds forming on the western side of the storm where some dry air has mixed in with some thunderstorms there. I am sure the Doc and the NHC would have mentioned it if the core of the storm had entrained dry air. JMO of course you may well be right.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 218
read the nhc discussions they have been saying the turn would happen for 3 days...look at the real thing, not what the models say.....
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Based on the last 3 Vortex fixes...

Still to PORT of track.
Not yet turning Northward





enjoy being the bearer of bad news?? :p
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Based on the last 3 Vortex fixes...

Still to PORT of track.
Not yet turning Northward





Looks to be bent slightly, and I do mean slightly, further left from vort 2 to three as opposed to vort 1 to 2.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
When is gfs run


started at 11:30
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wow! One model actually makes a direct hit but no landfall on Cape Cod as a category four hurricane! That scenario could certainly occur if the storm stays weak and ends up farther west. However, if it stays farther east, it has a better chance of tapping into the Gulf Stream and perhaps hitting Nova Scotia as a cat. 2 or 3. There is a warm eddy just southeast of Rhode Island that is more than 4C above normal. There will likely be complex interactions between Earl and the warm and cool spots of the Gulf Stream, and I'll try to find enough time to cover this in a blog later today. Here is the current warm anomaly map:



Cape Cod China? Heh Heh....
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Clues were just given.( See below) As a person who has prepared for his fare share of storms I would be making plans before 5pm today to get some supplies before the mad rush begins. Once the watches are put out it might get a little crazy.

1.Gas station for gas before the lines
2.food store for water ect...
3.hardware store lights batteries wood ect....
4.If you have to leave town Hotel Reservations now. But that could be an issues as it is a Holiday weekend.

GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
How are you adjusting to the "bright lights"? Homesick yet?


Ya I was while I was flying here, but now that I'm here busy with orientation it's like it still hasn't really hit me yet. I don't think I've quite yet fully realized what I'm doing lol, but once I start classes and a regular routine then I will probably feel a bit differently.
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Based on the last 3 Vortex fixes...

Still to PORT of track.
Not yet turning Northward



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Quoting Orcasystems:
and a close brush it will be



Wow! One model actually makes a direct hit but no landfall on Cape Cod as a category four hurricane! That scenario could certainly occur if the storm stays weak and ends up farther west. However, if it stays farther east, it has a better chance of tapping into the Gulf Stream and perhaps hitting Nova Scotia as a cat. 2 or 3. There is a warm eddy just southeast of Rhode Island that is more than 4C above normal. There will likely be complex interactions between Earl and the warm and cool spots of the Gulf Stream, and I'll try to find enough time to cover this in a blog later today. Here is the current warm anomaly map:



(Oops, map corrected.)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Am I wrong to say that in this rare case we prefer the storm to have greater intensity.... to keep it in the higher steering layers?



A post of mine from the last blog:

Quoting Levi32:


It's more complicated than that. For a developing system that is most often true, however a hurricane that has already become a major has already acquired great depth in the atmosphere and that will not just go away if the storm weakens to a Cat 1 or 2. Hurricanes do not lose all of their presence in the atmospheric column once they have gained it. Thus, Earl can't really be treated as a shallower storm if he weakens, unless he loses a lot of his convection which is unlikely.


In other words, if Earl weakens we can't think that he's being steered by the same typical layers of a developing hurricane of that category. He will be deeper than that and still be steered by most of the deeper layers.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
When is gfs run


Running now.
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SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL AL072010
======================================

2010AUG31 151500

CI T6.6
933.1
129.6
Initial 5.9
Adjusted 5.9
Raw 5.2

---
Dvorak numbers declining
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For the folks who live in North Carolina...

Here's your link to the state's Emergency Management office:

http://www.nccrimecontrol.org/Index2.cfm?a=000003,000010
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Holy mackeral!! Anyone seen this?

At least eight people killed in Cancun, Mexico, in a Molotov-cocktail attack at a popular bar

Where is kankunkid?


He was here earlier so he was ok this morning.
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Quoting SQUAWK:
.

And according to your map, the Azores needs to look out.


LOL

At least he left Texas and Louisiana out of the "cone"
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks :)

I really hope I can do stuff in my blog eventually but for now I can only pop in randomly from time to time to check on things.
How are you adjusting to the "bright lights"? Homesick yet?
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When is gfs run
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StormW,

Thanks for your update, went and read it earlier, right after you put it up.. then grandson woke up and did not leave a post there...but I read it everyday even if I do not leave a post.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


A Cat4 "brush", sort of makes you wonder doesn't it :)


That is quite a bit different than brushing 4 cats!
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Quoting StormsAreCool:
It's amazing how flawed the models have been, and still so many are putting their faith in them. Earl's gonna go much further west, people.


Would be nice if you could post some concrete data or facts to support why Earl would go much further West......I am not looking at the models per se but I am looking as the Conus WV loops and the trof approaching from the West looks pretty solid at the moment.....The timing of it will make the difference between a brush and landfall as I see it.
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Quoting Levi32:
"Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Earl, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday, but should not appreciably affect Earl, since the hurricane is so large and strong."


Again, no mention of dry air? I'm getting puzzled this morning. The NHC said nothing about dry air either in the 11am discussion. Earl is running right into it...probably won't be able to be any stronger than Cat 3 after 24 hours from now, or sooner. It is even possible he won't even be a major as he passes North Carolina.



Levi, that is why we need you around here!

and watching TWC is a joke.. it is pure entertainment these day.
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Earl weakens slightly to 941 MB central pressure:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 15:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 15:22:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2109'N 6759'W (21.15N 67.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 204 miles (329 km) to the E (96) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,591m (8,501ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ESE (121) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 201 at 104kts (From the SSW at ~ 119.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the ESE (121) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 941mb (27.79 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12C (54F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21C (70F) at a pressure alt. of 3,028m (9,934ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19C (66F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:31:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:31:10Z
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Quoting RJT185:
Question for NC/OBX residents: Where do you go to find evacuation orders or warnings? I'm supposed to go down FRI to FRI for wedding preparations, but depending on evac orders and storm path we're going to have to delay or cancel. Any help in this matter would be greatly appreciatted.


I know for us theyll just relay them on all the local channels, as well as TWC and local radio. Everyone learns about it very quickly
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By the way Earls motion has been (WNW), wouldn't surprise me one bit if he brushed the Southern Bahamas before making a NW turn.
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StormW,

Levi mentioned earlier that he thought Earl had peaked. Your thoughts?
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Chicklit most true surfers are actually capable of going out in large surf. You rarely here about surfers drowning and when you do it is usually some tourist that does not know what they are doing.

"But there are always a few crazies and often a few wind up dead, unfortunately, due to people wanting to get into wicked surf."

To generalize people going out in large surf as "crazies" is a bit ignorant IMHO
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A "west" track to NB means cooler waters, and a 'less' powerful storm. But still a hurricane (Cat1)

An "east" track to NS means not-so-cooler waters (22C). That is... possibly remain a Cat2 on landfall in NS's south shore.

There is an eddy of cool water east of Cape Cod -forward speed at that point may just cancel that out.

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Thank you, Dr, Masters!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting reedzone:
It's a beautiful day to prepare for the storm..
North Carolina to Maine, and Nova Scotia
Start preparations now,



Reed...How do you feel about Wilmington NC? Just South of Jacksonville NC
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Quoting reedzone:
It's a beautiful day to prepare for the storm..
North Carolina to Maine, and Nova Scotia
Start preparations now,


I know we have disagreed in the past, but i hope everyone is... Ive called my mom back home twice telling her not to take this lightly...
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Quoting SQUAWK:
.

And according to your map, the Azores needs to look out.


No, nothing but an extratropical storm in that area.
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Question for NC/OBX residents: Where do you go to find evacuation orders or warnings? I'm supposed to go down FRI to FRI for wedding preparations, but depending on evac orders and storm path we're going to have to delay or cancel. Any help in this matter would be greatly appreciatted.
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It's amazing how flawed the models have been, and still so many are putting their faith in them. Earl's gonna go much further west, people.
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JMA has Compass, i mean Kompasu extratropical by Friday.
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Quoting reedzone:
It's a beautiful day to prepare for the storm..
North Carolina to Maine, and Nova Scotia
Start preparations now,
.

And according to your map, the Azores needs to look out.
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Water vapor shows the very disrupted nature of the core at this time:

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Outflow boundaries are even more pronounced in the latest image:

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REPOST:



Typhoon Kompasu could make landfall on Seoul as a category one typhoon. From there, it will likely enter the Sea of Japan then cross the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific, where it could re-strengthen to a TS. This could create more eddies in the current (analogous to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic), setting up the scene for more tropical storms there and a strong Pineapple Express later in the season, as well as stronger warm anomalies invading the PDO.

Looking through the historical tropical cyclones, not one tropical storm has struck the Seoul area since 1945 that is stronger than the (estimated 145 km/h) winds expected from Kompasu for the area. The current track would make the typhoon the strongest to affect Seoul in over 65 years. The closest example I could find was Typhoon Prapiroon in 2000, which hit the North/South Korea border, killing 46 people and causing $6 billion USD in damage.

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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks :)

I really hope I can do stuff in my blog eventually but for now I can only pop in randomly from time to time to check on things.


lol I will take what I can get!! somethings better then nothing :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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