Category 4 Earl headed for a close brush with North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:16 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

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Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Earl is pulling away from Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is eyeing its next potential landfall--North Carolina's Outer Banks. Earl brought heavy rain and high winds to Puerto Rico and much of the northern Lesser Antilles yesterday, though it appears that the islands were spared major damage. One exception may be Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon yesterday, and Earl's south eyewall probably brought sustained winds of 100 mph to the island. Second hardest hit was probably Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Winds in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained above tropical storm force (39 mph) for five hours yesterday afternoon, peaking at 52 mph, gusting to 62 mph, at 4:49 pm. Heavy rains hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5 - 7" occurred. Earl brought waves of sixteen feet to San Juan, and waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet early this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Earl, taken at 10:30am EDT 8/31/10. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar. Isolated regions of 5 - 7 " of rain occurred in three locations on Puerto Rico. The rays fanning out to east from the radar location marked with a "+" are due to mountains blocking the view of the radar.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Earl, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday, but should not appreciably affect Earl, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 -20 mph for a day or so. However, the storm will probably regain strength after completing this cycle, and it is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Tuesday, August 31, 2010 runs of NOAA's GFDL model (left) and HWRF model (right). Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 knots) are predicted to stay off the coast. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect coastal North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to small portions of the coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts. It is likely that Earl will being a 12-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 12% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, western Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 4% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 5% for Eastport, Maine, and 11% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is speeding west-northwest towards Hurricane Earl, but is unlikely to bring tropical storm force winds to the Lesser Antilles. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in some of the outer bands this morning, but remains limited near the center. Wind shear is currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and the main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm.

Forecast for Fiona
Fiona is moving quickly to the west-northwest, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By tonight, Fiona will be beneath Earl's upper-level outflow channel. Strong upper-level winds from Earl's upper-level outflow and a ridge of high pressure to the northwest of Fiona will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona tonight through Friday, and probably arrest the storm's development. The scenario now called for by all the models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and turn to the northwest. Fiona will pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and will probably not bring tropical storm force winds to the islands. Fiona should then continue to the northwest and then turn north, passing very close to Bermuda on Saturday morning. It is possible Earl could destroy Fiona through high wind shear before Saturday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Fiona. High level cirrus clouds flowing out from the center of Earl as part of its upper level outflow can be seen starting to impinge upon the western side of Fiona's circulation.

Danielle is dead
Tropical Storm Danielle has succumbed to the cold North Atlantic waters, and is no longer a tropical storm.

98L
A new tropical wave (Invest 98L) moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is centered a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. Strong easterly winds from the African Monsoon are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear, and the disturbance is currently disorganized. A large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and this will interfere with development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days, and some slow development of 98L is possible as it moves westward at 15 mph. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and none of the computer models develop it.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of 98L.

A rare triple threat in the Western Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, we have an unusual triple feature--three named storms all within 700 miles of each other. A 3-way interaction between these storms is occurring, making for a very tough forecast situation. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which hit Okinawa today as a Category 2 typhoon. Kompasu is expected to recurve northeastward and hit North Korea on Thursday as a Category 2 typhoon. It is unusual for a powerful typhoon to thread the tight Yellow Sea and hit North Korea, and I don't know how prepared they are for strong typhoons. Kompasu is expected to hit the most populous region of North Korea, but the country is pretty mountainous, and a significant storm surge disaster is probably unlikely. In the South China Sea, Tropical Storm Lionrock and Tropical Storm Namtheun are moving through the straights between Taiwan and China towards each other. Neither are predicted to develop into typhoons, but heavy rains are occurring in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, further exacerbating the flood conditions China has suffered this summer.


Figure 6. An unusual triple feature over the Western Pacific--three simultaneous named storms all within 700 miles of each other. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I may have a short update this afternoon, once the latest models runs are available.
Jeff Masters

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at this point any trends left in the models are increasingly significant.

i would expect more to come too. When the Hurricane watches
start going up along the east coast people are gonna have a cow.
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
432. JRRP
CMC
GASTOOOON!!!!
Link
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Quoting jeffs713:

I think Gonzo (the G-IVsp) is the only Gulfstream the NOAA has for hurricane missions. And it just flies around the storm and drops dropsondes, not into it.


"PREDICT is currently flying into Tropical Storm Fiona. The GV took off from Barbados and will recover there. There may be a follow-on mission planned for tomorrow, takeoff at 10UTC for a 5-6-h mission, recovering in St. Croix. Or there could be a simple ferry back to St. Croix. That decision will be made later today. A final mission is being considered for September 2, with a takeoff at 10UTC for an 8-h mission that will recover in St. Croix."
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Quoting StormsAreCool:
"But the models kept showing her turn to NW for five days...and finally got it right."


I guess if they keep saying the same thing over and over, it's bound to come true eventually.

ERC, or eye wall replacement cycle has Earl wobbling again.

Storm, I noticed the dry air off to the west of Earl is having an impact.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Hrm.... IIRC, there is another NOAA research project (can't remember the acronym), but it has to do with watching storm genesis, and they are using a G-V, I think.


NASA GRIP i think is what it is called
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
I hope people in NC are preparing for Earl.
The trough that is supposed to move the High over the mid
Atlantic states is not looking as strong today. I am thinking
more and more the OBX are gonna take a full on hit.

Eiher way this is gonna be the closest call of a major cane since
proably Isabel and Fran for the east coast.

Stay ahead of the Game by being prepared in advance especially
if you live in those area's along the coast.




I've been telling people on here to keep watching Earl. I was saying that Earls track could change avoiding a curve out to sea. I remember H. Floyd missing a trough that would take him out to sea. Instead he tracked up the EC seaboard with lots of flooding rain. I have seen the track & the models change so much, it would make your head spin. I also don't agree that Earl will just brush the NC coast. jmo, to much inconsistencys in the track & models. Even our local mets today keep saying their not quite sure if Earl will be more east and stay out to sea or more west and slam NC. At this point, I believe its going to be a mess, for anyone from NC upward. I also think Florida should also keep an eye out just in case. It doesn't hurt to be prepared, should the track change. Look at Katrina, she took a bee line straight for LA/Miss. What a disaster that was. I live in Yorktown, Va. and I'm ready for whatever weather conditions we should get.
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Great post as usual Dr. M. I wish I could listen to Hurricane Haven but I will be at class. I guess North Korea being hit by a typhoon is like New Jersey being hit by a hurricane. Or possibly Delaware, I think it's really rare. I looked into it once. It intrigues me when hurricanes take crazy paths, it's almost like they know what they're doing..
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"But the models kept showing her turn to NW for five days...and finally got it right."


I guess if they keep saying the same thing over and over, it's bound to come true eventually.
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425. MahFL
Earl seems to be hardly moving north much at all and limping along at 272 or so.....
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Quoting hercj:

Trust me Gonzo and I are old friends. Look on the pod for tomorrow and you will see a GV scheduled to do RESEARCH in Fiona. I am stumped.

Hrm.... IIRC, there is another NOAA research project (can't remember the acronym), but it has to do with watching storm genesis, and they are using a G-V, I think.
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Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


This seems to come up a lot. The computer models are guidance and are to be used with other tools. The NHC forecast is good out to 24 to 36 hours after that too many other factors creeping in. At that point they re-enter the data and come up with new computer models and readjust the cone to insure that it is accurate up to the next 24 to 36 hours. No one has ever stated that the 3 day cone is exactly the path that a storm is going to follow. They state that anywhere within the cone is where they expect the storm to be, so it can be outside the cone after 36 hours and still be accurate.

Now in this case, the cone/models have had to be adjusted every day due to this Hurricane not following the rules we have laid out and keeps not turning NW; but according to all the experts there will be a turn to the NW and then N at some point within the next 24 to 36 hours.

I hope this brings some understanding to this issue.


Who's disputing that?

I simply wrote that when the model runs shift, even within their margin of error, that's worth noting, and aggregating with other predictive data. And I think that's hard to argue with.

There's no question in either the model runs or the forecasts that Earl will turn. When I wrote that it was "shading west" in the model run, I was talking about the timing of that turn. Every run for the past 48 hours has shown Earl moving slightly further to the West before he reaches his westernmost point and begins to recurve. That trend is significant, although the individual data points may not be.
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No Problem Doug. They have internet links for it if he wants to see what it is.

Also FYI about the lighthouse, its on the mainland. No bridges or causeways to worry about.
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Quoting StormW:


A storm won't penetrate high pressure, as it has an effect of a brick wall. A trof, being of lower pressure, will provide a "hole" or weakness in the steering, which creates the path of least resistance, so a storm will have a tendency to head toward it. Kind of like electrical current or hole in a water pipe. If you have a break in an electrical wire, and it shorts out, electricity will flow through the path of least resistance. If you put a small hole in a water pipe, water is going to come out (from higher pressure to lower pressure)...again, the path of least resistance.



great analogy!! Thank you so much and you have taught me so much already but everyday I learn something new from you!!
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Quoting StormW:
Sucking in dry air...notice the outflow boundary over the extreme SE Bahamas:


more dry air the better to take this evil vision from our sight
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Storm, i thank you for all the info you put out, you are very dedicated to helping people on wunderground. 1 quick question that is confusing me a bit. Once it makes its approach towards NS, NHC says its a TS(after it passes over), CHC says its a post tropical storm, and accuweather says it could be a category 1 hurricane. I'm rather confused.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Winds between 80-100 KTS is about 95 to 115 MPH, nothing to sneeze at!!



Nope. Strong cat1 mot likely. Possibly a cat2 but i would be
surprised that far north and interacting with the trough.

but still nothing to play with!
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting thelmores:
Not sure which is worse..... Hurricane Earl.... or the fact the sky is falling! LOL


LOL!
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412. hercj
Quoting jeffs713:

I think Gonzo (the G-IVsp) is the only Gulfstream the NOAA has for hurricane missions. And it just flies around the storm and drops dropsondes, not into it.

Trust me Gonzo and I are old friends. Look on the pod for tomorrow and you will see a GV scheduled to do RESEARCH in Fiona. I am stumped.
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Quoting TerraNova:
Afternoon guys!

Could someone post a link to the ecmwf please, I'm typing from my iPod touch. Thanks in advance!

Half the people here don't know Earl exists. I've got more confidence in Earl not making it further west than 40n/70w but regardless of closest approach, surf's up along the jersey shore this weekend



ECMWF MODEL
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting ENCWeatherDud:


This should thankfully be nothing like Floyd. This storm won't stick around long enough to bring the kind of flooding Floyd did. Even if it did continue to creep west, it won't sit still like Floyd did. Those of us who lived it never want to see that again.


ground was already saturated when Floyd came in so that made it worse
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Quoting Bonedog:
doug in NJ OZ my be out of luck. Except for Atlantic City with its casinos not many concrete multistory on waterfront. Most of NJ coastal areas are flat with wooden 1 stories. Hotels on the beach dont have much in the way of a parking structure other then a lot at ground level. Once you get around NYC you start getting into masonary structures. I haven't been to LI so hopefully someone can pick it up from there.

A place in NJ where a structure is not required for elevation would be the Highlands. They run from Sea Bright NJ to Sandy Hook. Well over 100 feet ABSL so flooding is not an issue. A nice spot is The Twin Lights Lighthouse. Its at the top of a bluff overlooking the ocean below. Afords very good storm views and is able to see the Varrazano Bridge, LI, and NYC if photgraphy is warrented.


May prove to be real useful stuff there. I'll catalogue it. Thanx!
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Hurricane Earl Live Reports

N. C. Outer Banks: Jim Cantore, Stephanie Abrams, Jeff Morrow
Long Island, NY: Chris Warren and Mike Seidel
Cape Cod, MA: Paul Goodloe and Eric Fisher
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:


more like a cat 1 or possibly a weaker side cat2.

Once it gets that far north it should be considerably weakened.

Atlantic
Date Lat Long Wind (KT/MPH) Gust (KT/MPH)
EARL
31/1500Z 21.2 67.9 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
01/0000Z 22.3 69.7 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
01/1200Z 24.8 71.7 120 / 135 CAT4 145 / 165 CAT5
02/0000Z 27.3 73.5 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
02/1200Z 30.5 75.0 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
03/1200Z 36.5 73.0 100 / 115 CAT3 120 / 135 CAT4
04/1200Z 43.5 66.0 80 / 90 CAT1 100 / 115 CAT3
05/1200Z 52.5 57.0 55 / 60 TS 65 / 75 CAT1


Winds between 80-100 KTS is about 95 to 115 MPH, nothing to sneeze at!!
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those are not hurricane watch they are trop. storm
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
Quoting CloudGatherer:


They're not precise enough for this shift to be statistically significant, which is not the same as saying that it's meaningless. Consider, after all, a succession of 50 mile shifts in the same direction - their cumulative impact is indeed meaningful. So I wouldn't call this particular model run significant in its own right. But as an extension of a trend over the past 48 hours? That trend continues to be significant, and this is another data point - none of which mean much individually - to bolster the case that Earl is still shading slightly West.


This seems to come up a lot. The computer models are guidance and are to be used with other tools. The NHC forecast is good out to 24 to 36 hours after that too many other factors creeping in. At that point they re-enter the data and come up with new computer models and readjust the cone to insure that it is accurate up to the next 24 to 36 hours. No one has ever stated that the 3 day cone is exactly the path that a storm is going to follow. They state that anywhere within the cone is where they expect the storm to be, so it can be outside the cone after 36 hours and still be accurate.

Now in this case, the cone/models have had to be adjusted every day due to this Hurricane not following the rules we have laid out and keeps not turning NW; but according to all the experts there will be a turn to the NW and then N at some point within the next 24 to 36 hours.

I hope this brings some understanding to this issue.
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404. MahFL
I found this link about all the missions.

Flights
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StormW,

Thanks for all of your post, do you think the models will keep trending West? I live in Va. Beach, and am curious how close you think it may get to here? We are about 100 miles n of hatteras
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402. hercj
Quoting StormW:


No...I don't.

We have more organizations and groups flying Hurricane Research flights than at any time in history. It seems we are the last game in town when it comes to funding. Some of this has to be private funded.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


This should thankfully be nothing like Floyd. This storm won't stick around long enough to bring the kind of flooding Floyd did. Even if it did continue to creep west, it won't sit still like Floyd did. Those of us who lived it never want to see that again.
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Larger eye is now forming for Earl.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I'm 30, and looking back... I have to agree.


SERIOUSLY the good ole days :)
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397. Bonz
OK, where the heck is that turn!? I thought it would start turning NW overnight.

"But the models kept showing her turn to NW for five days...and finally got it right."

LOL.
Member Since: September 11, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
Quoting Bordonaro:

NO..A weak CAT 3 at best

Earl will be weakening once he is north of 38.5 N latitude, ocean temps drop from near 81F to near 71F at 40.5N latitude. That will weakening him, plus wind shear will be higher also.


more like a cat 1 or possibly a weaker side cat2.

Once it gets that far north it should be considerably weakened.

Atlantic
Date Lat Long Wind (KT/MPH) Gust (KT/MPH)
EARL
31/1500Z 21.2 67.9 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
01/0000Z 22.3 69.7 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
01/1200Z 24.8 71.7 120 / 135 CAT4 145 / 165 CAT5
02/0000Z 27.3 73.5 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
02/1200Z 30.5 75.0 115 / 130 CAT4 140 / 160 CAT5
03/1200Z 36.5 73.0 100 / 115 CAT3 120 / 135 CAT4
04/1200Z 43.5 66.0 80 / 90 CAT1 100 / 115 CAT3
05/1200Z 52.5 57.0 55 / 60 TS 65 / 75 CAT1

Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
394. 7544
Quoting markot:
storm, couldnt earl go farther west than models are showing, when would hurr. warnings be put up for bahamas...


there are watches and warn up all the way to the se bahnas now who will be next if he dosent make that turn today the dor ? maybe but he keppes wobbling west still idk lol
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Quoting hercj:

Senior do you have any idea what Gulfstream V they are going to send into Fiona tomorrow? I know that NOAA's is a GIVsp and it will be flying at the same time. I pretty much stay plugged into all of this aviation data but I am stumped on this one.

I think Gonzo (the G-IVsp) is the only Gulfstream the NOAA has for hurricane missions. And it just flies around the storm and drops dropsondes, not into it.
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Quoting StormW:


Shen,

Here is what I see:

The orange circle, with arrow, is still providing enough weakness to want to bring Earl north.

The pink arrow shows the flow around the ridge, albeit at that position is not all that strong.

The light blues is the upcoming trof that should erode the ridge and produce the final turn.

The combo of the first two are creating his WNW motion.

Thanks. That helps a lot.
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Quoting StormW:


Shen,

Here is what I see:

The orange circle, with arrow, is still providing enough weakness to want to bring Earl north.

The pink arrow shows the flow around the ridge, albeit at that position is not all that strong.

The light blues is the upcoming trof that should erode the ridge and produce the final turn.

The combo of the first two are creating his WNW motion.



Thanks for that well detailed information :D
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Reminds me that I can't stand when people say "if you are anywhere in the cone of uncertainty, this storm could come to your area."

that makes some people tune out, who are outside the cone at that time .. but that stupid cone is a product of the forecast track, which shifts typically with every advisory even if just by a little.

Next thing you know, Celtus T Judd is up on the dang roof fixin his TV antenna (cause he is safe, being outside the cone) and the storm moves in ... all because he was outside the cone some 72 hrs prior or whatever.

Don't forget....Shift Happens.


When you say "cone of uncertainty" it reminds me of a Madonna video from the 80's.

Just remember, forecasters are limited on how accurate their forecasts can be, however, there is no limit on error(s). Celtus T Judd was probably not going to watch the news anyway, gets up for a fresh beer when an alert comes on. When he becomes a statistic, people think there wasn't enough warning. I say, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't push 'em to it. Not a very nice view. Factor that into your popular DestinJeff Hurricane season of 2010 memoirs. (Look for it at your favorite book sellers)
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389. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
356. ho77yw00d 4:50 PM GMT on August 31, 2010



lol I know well I am 29 and the early 90's were awsome ;)


indeed, they were.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
1500UTC Update for 250-850 layer


see the ridge flatten over the plains? sw to ne orientation as the leading edge of the trough meets it.

Battle royal out there.
Thats not a good orientation for pushing this out
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Not sure which is worse..... Hurricane Earl.... or the fact the sky is falling! LOL
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385. jpsb
Quoting reedzone:


about 30-50 miles west of the last run, not really a big shift.
Waiting for the "turn" on a storm headed at land is the most exciting part of following TS. Just when I think it's too late it's not gonna turn, it turns, lol. I'm beginning to think the east coast is in trouble with Earl, NYC and Long Island come to mind.
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storm, couldnt earl go farther west than models are showing, when would hurr. warnings be put up for bahamas...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
Afternoon guys!

Could someone post a link to the ecmwf please, I'm typing from my iPod touch. Thanks in advance!

Half the people here don't know Earl exists. I've got more confidence in Earl not making it further west than 40n/70w but regardless of closest approach, surf's up along the jersey shore this weekend
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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