Category 4 Earl headed for a close brush with North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:16 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

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Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Earl is pulling away from Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is eyeing its next potential landfall--North Carolina's Outer Banks. Earl brought heavy rain and high winds to Puerto Rico and much of the northern Lesser Antilles yesterday, though it appears that the islands were spared major damage. One exception may be Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon yesterday, and Earl's south eyewall probably brought sustained winds of 100 mph to the island. Second hardest hit was probably Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Winds in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained above tropical storm force (39 mph) for five hours yesterday afternoon, peaking at 52 mph, gusting to 62 mph, at 4:49 pm. Heavy rains hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5 - 7" occurred. Earl brought waves of sixteen feet to San Juan, and waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet early this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Earl, taken at 10:30am EDT 8/31/10. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar. Isolated regions of 5 - 7 " of rain occurred in three locations on Puerto Rico. The rays fanning out to east from the radar location marked with a "+" are due to mountains blocking the view of the radar.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Earl, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday, but should not appreciably affect Earl, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 -20 mph for a day or so. However, the storm will probably regain strength after completing this cycle, and it is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Tuesday, August 31, 2010 runs of NOAA's GFDL model (left) and HWRF model (right). Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 knots) are predicted to stay off the coast. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect coastal North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to small portions of the coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts. It is likely that Earl will being a 12-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 12% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, western Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 4% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 5% for Eastport, Maine, and 11% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is speeding west-northwest towards Hurricane Earl, but is unlikely to bring tropical storm force winds to the Lesser Antilles. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in some of the outer bands this morning, but remains limited near the center. Wind shear is currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and the main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm.

Forecast for Fiona
Fiona is moving quickly to the west-northwest, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By tonight, Fiona will be beneath Earl's upper-level outflow channel. Strong upper-level winds from Earl's upper-level outflow and a ridge of high pressure to the northwest of Fiona will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona tonight through Friday, and probably arrest the storm's development. The scenario now called for by all the models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and turn to the northwest. Fiona will pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and will probably not bring tropical storm force winds to the islands. Fiona should then continue to the northwest and then turn north, passing very close to Bermuda on Saturday morning. It is possible Earl could destroy Fiona through high wind shear before Saturday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Fiona. High level cirrus clouds flowing out from the center of Earl as part of its upper level outflow can be seen starting to impinge upon the western side of Fiona's circulation.

Danielle is dead
Tropical Storm Danielle has succumbed to the cold North Atlantic waters, and is no longer a tropical storm.

98L
A new tropical wave (Invest 98L) moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is centered a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. Strong easterly winds from the African Monsoon are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear, and the disturbance is currently disorganized. A large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and this will interfere with development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days, and some slow development of 98L is possible as it moves westward at 15 mph. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and none of the computer models develop it.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of 98L.

A rare triple threat in the Western Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, we have an unusual triple feature--three named storms all within 700 miles of each other. A 3-way interaction between these storms is occurring, making for a very tough forecast situation. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which hit Okinawa today as a Category 2 typhoon. Kompasu is expected to recurve northeastward and hit North Korea on Thursday as a Category 2 typhoon. It is unusual for a powerful typhoon to thread the tight Yellow Sea and hit North Korea, and I don't know how prepared they are for strong typhoons. Kompasu is expected to hit the most populous region of North Korea, but the country is pretty mountainous, and a significant storm surge disaster is probably unlikely. In the South China Sea, Tropical Storm Lionrock and Tropical Storm Namtheun are moving through the straights between Taiwan and China towards each other. Neither are predicted to develop into typhoons, but heavy rains are occurring in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, further exacerbating the flood conditions China has suffered this summer.


Figure 6. An unusual triple feature over the Western Pacific--three simultaneous named storms all within 700 miles of each other. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I may have a short update this afternoon, once the latest models runs are available.
Jeff Masters

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks... Good to see you too!!.. My Dad passed away and was on and off during this tough time in my life. mostly reading the post... Im in good spirits though..

Sorry to hear. My dad passed about a year ago, I thank God I had him so long.
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940 mb... now what does that do to the steering patterns?
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Anyone know why Recon is not showing up on Google Earth?
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d'fly my post was ate but I re posted #550... didnt know if you saw or not
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 311749
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...CORE OF HURRICANE EARL PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Just checkin in....

I am on the triangle shaped island near the left side.

No rain yet, 15-20 mph breeze from the North.

CRS
Damn...I would say you might get some rough weather from this one.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 26
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:09:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2121'N 6817'W (21.35N 68.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 184 miles (296 km) to the E (92) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,590m (8,497ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (302) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 43 at 109kts (From the NE at ~ 125.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the NW (304) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8C (46F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20C (68F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20C (68F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:31:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:19:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL IS REFORMING
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Looks like 98L is organizing.
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Why Earl Will Be Further West
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Just checkin in....

I am on the triangle shaped island near the left side.

No rain yet, 15-20 mph breeze from the North.

CRS



CRS, gonna be a fairly rough ride down there, even if the eyewall passes a bit further north and east of you. Stay SAFE!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
572. IKE
Eye starting to pop back out on Earl. He looks right about on the tropical points...Link
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Hey Caicos! Stay safe!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EastCarolina:


He may very well wobble his way more west than the models predict


lets hope not we need to get him on outta here
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Flood, all good now that the oil spill has been capped. Watching the parade of storms hoping that nothing makes it into the GOM!

Zoo!! Good to see you! These twirls bring us all out of the woodwork!
Quoting Floodman:


Hiya, kiddo! Yeah, we come out of the wood work with a decent storm to deal with...so how are you?
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.CORE OF HURRICANE EARL PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
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Goodbye Fiona. [RIP!]

Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
I don't know why people keep saying they don't believe the storm is turning yet, or won't turn.

It has turned significantly to the N since this time yesterday, and has averaged NW movement. Earl is on track. The only changes to the track we'll see now will be very minute.
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Quoting will40:
Earl is doing the stair step movement. We will and have seen a lot of wobbles


He may very well wobble his way more west than the models predict
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One other possibility is that the trough doesn't fully push the high off over the ocean, and Earl "splits" the gap like a linebacker reaching the defense's secondary, running almost straight north into the Atlantic seaboard. In this case, it would be unable to push back to the east and recurve, as the location of the high would prevent this if it doesn't move far enough east. This is not a good scenario and Earl would be a serious wind and rain event between the Carolinas and New York!
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Fiona soon to become absorbed by Earl.

I am now pondering how the interaction of 2 tropical
systems will affect EARL'S long term track.

There is not much history on this with landfalling systems.
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
My deepest condolences also.


Thank you Stormwatcher.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HH are on their way into Fiona so I guess we will soon find out exactly what is going on with her.


they have been in there for a while

Link
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Sorry, I meant to say that Earl is south of the models.


That makes a lot more sense. :)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Just checkin in....

I am on the triangle shaped island near the left side.

No rain yet, 15-20 mph breeze from the North.

CRS


Good luck.
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I produced this a few hours ago hence it is a little out of date. It shows that as of this morning, Earl was west of forecast from the advisory 24 hours before.

earl verification 2
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Just checkin in....

I am on the triangle shaped island near the left side.

No rain yet, 15-20 mph breeze from the North.

CRS
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Sorry, I meant to say that Earl is south of the models.
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Quoting reedzone:


NOGAPS makes landfall in Cape Hatteras, NC.


so far with Earl the NGP has been the only model from day 1
that has made since to me. The other models disinegrate
and move the high too quickly and over do the trough it
seems like.
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2010
Storm Name: Fiona (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:23:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1618'N 5647'W (16.3N 56.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 291 miles (469 km) to the NE (40) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 745m (2,444ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NNW (335) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 91 at 33kts (From the E at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the NW (325) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23C (73F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21C (70F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:55:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Fiona is definitely organizing in terms of satellite appearance.
HH are on their way into Fiona so I guess we will soon find out exactly what is going on with her.
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Quoting JRRP:
interesting
NGP
Link


Both CMC and NGP have future Gaston around the PR area 6-7 days from now. Rigth???
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks... Good to see you too!!.. My Dad passed away and was on and off during this tough time in my life. mostly reading the post... Im in good spirits though..


** my post was ate

I said I am so sorry to hear about your loss (sounds cliche) I have had many losses in my life and I understand the feeling. Stay strong and I will pray for your family

Danielle~
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2010
Storm Name: Fiona (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:23:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°18'N 56°47'W (16.3N 56.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 291 miles (469 km) to the NE (40°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 745m (2,444ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 91° at 33kts (From the E at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:55:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
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Beachie! Good to see you around.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Flood. I appreciate it
My deepest condolences also.
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Fiona is definitely organizing in terms of satellite appearance.
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thats been said for 4 days now....
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
It seems to me that with the models consistently being to far south that this is an opportunity for modelers to look for a common thread in the models that is causing the southward bias. It is unlikely they are all south for different reasons so the fact that they are almost all missing the same direction gives a good opportunity to improve them...IMO


What models are too far south?
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543. CJ5
Quoting alfabob:
MIMIC gives some idea of how the EWRC has been developing. Seems like an outer ring has been building since last night, although radar was also hinting of this. I would have to say that intensification is in the future for Earl unless conditions become really unfavorable.



If this has any accuracy in movement it does show a nearly due West movement over the last few hours.
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Quoting JRRP:
interesting
NGP
Link
Very interesting. Did Earl and Fiona merge near the end?
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Quoting Floodman:


Sorry to hear about your loss, dfly; we're glad to have you back!


Thanks Flood. I appreciate it
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Quoting hydrus:
And Earl is gaining strength. Mimic shows almost 120 kts..



Surely battling dry air though, hence the arc clouds in the western quadrant.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Beachfoxx:
{{{{Flood}}}
Gotta love Dr.M's blog when things heat up! LOL
Earl is a big bad boy....
Hope you are doing well!


Hiya, kiddo! Yeah, we come out of the wood work with a decent storm to deal with...so how are you?
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Just a wobble..bad eyes here..have new glasses too..
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It seems to me that with the models consistently being to far right that this is an opportunity for modelers to look for a common thread in the models that is causing the north bias. It is unlikely they are all north for different reasons so the fact that they are almost all missing the same direction gives a good opportunity to improve them...IMO
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Quoting angiest:


By the same token, no turn north.
He's not supposed to turn until later tonight. If he doesn't turn by tomorrow morning, then he's going west of forecast.
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its not a wobble....
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Fiona getting closer. New watches and warnings could be up later today.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks... Good to see you too!!.. My Dad passed away and was on and off during this tough time in my life. mostly reading the post... Im in good spirits though..


Sorry to hear about your loss, dfly; we're glad to have you back!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.