Earl hits Category 4; Fiona forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:01 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

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Powerful Hurricane Earl, now a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, continues to lash Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this afternoon. Hardest hit was Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population of 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon EDT, and the island probably saw sustained winds of 100 mph in the south eyewall of Earl. Second hardest hit was probably the island of Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla this morning; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT. Winds were below tropical storm force on Antigua, but heavy rains of 5.71" have deluged the island. Heavy rains have hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5" have occurred southwest of San Juan. A heavy rain band moved across the island late this morning, with a tornadic thunderstorm that prompted issuance of a tornado warning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.


Figure 2. Radar image of Earl taken this afternoon from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico show that the eye of Earl has now moved past the Virgin Islands, and winds will begin to subside on most of the islands this evening. Heavy rains will continue through Tuesday, however, bringing the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 4 knots--but is expected to increase to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, tonight through Thursday afternoon, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This shear should not appreciably affect Earl between now and Thursday, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for continued intensification. Earl should continue to intensify until reaching Category 4 or 5 strength on Tuesday, and will probably maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. The hurricane will probably undergo at least one eyewall replacement cycle during that period, which will diminish its winds by 20 - 30 mph for a day or so. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 8am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's HWRF model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 kt) are predicted to stay off the coast, except over Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect virtually the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to affect North Carolina's Outer Banks, Southeast Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, but still keep hurricane force winds offshore. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. We now have one model predicting a U.S. landfall--the latest HWRF model predicts Earl will hit the Maine/Nova Scotia border region on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. Several models now predict Earl will being tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty, and could potentially receive a direct hit. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 10% for Nantucket, 5% for Boston, and 3% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea, but it is not unusual for the models to miss the timing and intensity of these troughs significantly in 4 - 5 day forecasts.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.

Danielle
Danielle is now a tropical storm, and is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters.

Jeff Masters

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Geez, not looking good for the Carolinas and northward at all...

How much west will that cone be by 11 am tomorrow? hmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With the 11 PM TWO, seasonal A.C.E. (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the Atlantic has reached 40.3225. Couple of things notable about that:
  1. This year's A.C.E. has more than quadrupled in just a bit over one week's time (it stood at 9.42 last Monday morning);
  2. This year's A.C.E. has already exceeded that of 1997, the "weakest" year of the current "active" hurricane period;
  3. This year's A.C.E. is already higher than that of 13 of the past 60 seasons;
  4. With the help of Earl's forecasted numbers, this year's A.C.E. should surpass 2009's total sometime Wednesday.
All this, and--it should be noted--we're not even out of August yet. So...still want to call the season a bust? ;-)
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1976. acarty
OK, right on the beach (I have a seawall in my back yard) between Portsmouth NH and Portland Maine. Should I be getting ready for the storm shutters? Not so much worried about wind and rain but the surf can be wicked awesome (as we say here).
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he is only up for 12. J/k
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Earl is not gaining any latitude ATM and looks to be slowing.


I also think Earl may be slowing.....

we may soon see a turn if that's the case......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
Quoting SeVaSurfer:



Come on now. OBX = Virginia Beach sheild. A little breezy, sure. My family "down south" well they will stay up here this weekend.


Looks like Mike Siedel won't have to visit VA beach now.
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Quoting thelmores:


while I somewhat agree with your assessment, click on the tropical forecast plots..... overall, still right on course....

Now if this motion continues for 3-4 hours, then we have something......

I still believe the overall track will shift "slightly" west....... but at this point, I would only be real nervous on the outer banks......


Maybe, but in the short term a slower and more westerly track may not be a bad thing...Could just make the turn to the NE a little sharper and a little further S when it does happen?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
1971. Relix


This is a joke and absolutely not true. We are under tropical storm conditions and... well... it isn't even raining and even less gusting at the moment. XD!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ouch



Taz, that new map is to close to the CONUS for comfort...
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1969. Zeec94
Quoting PcolaDan:


And there is an Air Tran scheduled to land there in 40 minutes.


By the way, the plane photo we saw. He landed on his second attempt. He arrived about 53 minutes ago.
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1968. srada
Quoting stormy2008:
"INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST."


Hmmm..might be some conflict going on in the NHC Weather room..one side is saying NC and the other side is saying out to sea and down the middle lies that one NHC new employee who is on the WU website saying Florida..seriously..they have been stepping around the issue of the path for 3 days now..almost if to cover their behinds..
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Mine is right 12 times a day, the hour hand fell off.


wouldn't that make it right 24 times a day?
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
Quoting Tazmanian:
ouch

OH lord.Earl go away.....
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Quoting stormy2008:
If you live in Hampton Roads... keep a look-out.



Come on now. OBX = Virginia Beach sheild. A little breezy, sure. My family "down south" well they will stay up here this weekend.
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Quoting StormW:
Good night all!
Good night Storm, try to sleep soundly, despite the spinning in your head from all your competing interests. Thank you!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1963. boteman
Quoting StormJunkie:


I was thinking 290...Calculated by extrapolating the last three center fixes. Give or take a couple degrees.


Instrumentation error.
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Quoting 7544:
look peeps hes riding at 19n and going due west correct me if im wrong plz.

Link


while I somewhat agree with your assessment, click on the tropical forecast plots..... overall, still right on course....

Now if this motion continues for 3-4 hours, then we have something......

I still believe the overall track will shift "slightly" west....... but at this point, I would only be real nervous on the outer banks......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Jet Blue, On time all the time......

Let's go land next to a major hurricane, no thanks. I would've wanted a pre-flight briefing on that journey, I'd opt for the hotel.


And there is an Air Tran scheduled to land there in 40 minutes.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting MrstormX:


Definitely a reliable source.


ROTFL!!!
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Quoting StormW:


kman and Tci...depending on how far west he gets...right now as of last track plot, based on Global Tracks software...winds NNW by 2-3 TOMORROW AFTERNOON... around 34 mph...picking up on Wed. to about 45 mph...of course if he gets closer...expect an increase. I'll be up early, (5:00 a.m.)and post for him again


Thanks Storm. I told him earlier that it all depends on how the track evolution goes from here. If Earl delays the move to the NW then it could get unpleasant in the TCI even on the West side of the system.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ouch

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115572
1956. will40
Quoting PcolaDan:


Mine is right 12 times a day, the hour hand fell off.

a stopped military clock isnt right twice a day tho
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
1955. angiest
Quoting kmanislander:
For those who continue to doubt the motion is 300 degrees run this loop

You will see Earl stair step twice. The last move was to the West at the end of the second stair step. The next move will be off to the N or NW to be followed by another wobble to the W or WNW and so on.



Earlier today, when the NHC was saying ~290 degrees I was seeing closer to 300. But this jog to the left is lasting for awhile and I have been seeing 285 ever since I got back.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1954. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
see ya, StormW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 54 Comments: 47971


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Huracaneer:
And the cone shifts west like cicadaknot said



Definitely a reliable source.
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Quoting kmanislander:
For those who continue to doubt the motion is 300 degrees run this loop

You will see Earl stair step twice. The last move was to the West at the end of the second stair step. The next move will be off to the N or NW to be followed by another wobble to the W or WNW and so on.



I was thinking 290...Calculated by extrapolating the last three center fixes. Give or take a couple degrees.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
Quoting MrstormX:


Not sure they have been consistently not using the lower pressures found through the duration of this hurricane.
Thanks for the reply.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Thank you Storm for your knowledge.
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And the cone shifts west like cicadaknot said

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Quoting MrstormX:
Why aren't they using the 933mb pressure that was found, annoying bullcrap. And why no 98L yet this evening...
Read post 1906.....
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Well I guess they had a dropsenade find a 937 pressure, but sill annoying...
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1944. angiest
Quoting MrstormX:


lol are me and you the only people who care about the pressure drop ...


Count me in. Had to step away for awhile to read bedtime stories.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF FIONA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
WITH JUST A FEW WEAK BANDING FEATURES. A NOAA/NTAS BUOY LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB A FEW HOURS
AGO...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME PRESSURE AS BUOY 41041 MEASURED
EARLIER TODAY. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF FIONA...
ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND
MAY HALT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...PLUS THE CYCLONE COULD BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS THAT WERE UPWELLED BY EARL. MOST OF THE
MODELS...SAVE THE GFDL/GFDN...ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MICROWAVE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING 280/21.
FIONA SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY
WELL CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF. THAT MODEL IS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PERHAPS BECAUSE IT SHOWS A DEEPER
FIONA RESPONDING TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THAT SCENARIO...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 15.1N 50.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 15.7N 54.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 57.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 60.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 20.5N 63.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 67.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 28.0N 69.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 69.5W 45 KT

$$
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115572
For those who continue to doubt the motion is 300 degrees run this loop

You will see Earl stair step twice. The last move was to the West at the end of the second stair step. The next move will be off to the N or NW to be followed by another wobble to the W or WNW and so on.

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Quoting Gorty:
Anyone want to help me out?

Link

Done. Check your blog. :)
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 310252
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

...FIONA CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
ISSUED...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 50.8W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA TOMORROW MORNING.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE ON
TUESDAY OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting Gorty:
Anyone want to help me out?

Link


6. How does the out flow from a hurricane cause wind shear?

Answer: Tropical cyclones are "tropical lows." Air always flows from areas of high pressure to low pressure (pressure gradient force). The farther you are from the center of the high pressure system, the higher the winds will be.A rock rolling down hill is a good analogy that can be used to understand this. The force gravity is what pulls the rock downward. The higher the slope, the more gravity will pull the rock down. Likewise greater the pressure difference between an area of low pressure and high pressure, the greater the pressure gradient force will be.

Inside a tropical cyclone, air rises and condenses. When the air reaches the top levels of the atmosphere, it spreads. This creates an upper level high. This means that the upper level (about 300mb) pressure of a tropical cyclone is higher than its surroundings. Therefore, the air flows away to the regions of lower pressure. The surroundings of the upper level high have higher winds because of the pressure gradient force. Therefore if a tropical cyclone's outflow is strong enough, it can cause substantial wind shear.

I hope you understand....
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Earl (no topography)
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"INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST."
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Quoting FLdewey:

They're STILL trying. Going to have to head for the alternate soon.



Jet Blue, On time all the time......

Let's go land next to a major hurricane, no thanks. I would've wanted a pre-flight briefing on that journey, I'd opt for the hotel.
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the eyewall is closed again per recon
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1934. Relix
Aside from some rains and gusts, Earl hasn't done much in PR so far, AT LEAST, in the area I live. I think I'll be off to bed then =P
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Question: saw a ref. to 933.9mb hours earlier. Can you clarify why it was never officially adopted?


Not sure they have been consistently not using the lower pressures found through the duration of this hurricane.
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1930. Zeec94
Quoting boteman:


We will never doubt you again. EVAR!


That's right. Haha! =D
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Earl is about to hit 20N. Looks like it is exactly on trach with the NHC projection. Hope to see now more West movement in the 11:00 EDT update
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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