Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

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An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

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NHC track is panning out..
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I recommend those living on the EC, please keep listening to updates daily. Earl is one that shouldn't be taken lightly. I'm waiting to see what effects Earl will have concerning the weather for Yorktown, Va.
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1928. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
08L/TS/F/CX
MARK
14.48N/48.73W
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1927. Relix
Watch as the cone moves over PR for Fiona! XD!!

JK, love you NHC =) (you were sightly off for Earl though! XD!)
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
1926. Asta
Quoting GeauxGirl:



Hmmm...I seem to remember it a little differently, but I could be mistaken.

You are mistaken.
LINK- NOAA KATRINA FORECASTS

"...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED
AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS
SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR."


Link
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1924. GetReal
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Quoting yonzabam:


When Katrina emerged into the GOM after crossing southern Florida, the NHC track forecast had it going straight into New Orleans. Don't know how many days out that was, but it was very impressive.


Actually.....not true....they had Katrina making a right turn back into the panhandle of Florida...east of Panama City...
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1922. unf97
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
FIONA's track looks like a copy-cat of EARL


Yeah, the inital NHC track is a copy-cat of Earl's. However, there will be track adjustments for sure!
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Quoting TampaTom:


FYI - Donna is also the only hurricane on record to bring hurricane force winds to every state on the eastern seaboard...


I can't find a pic of its entire track but this one was a doozy. 1837 Racer's Storm

The Racer's Storm, named after the British ship HMS Racer, was first observed in the Western Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on September 28. Likely having originated from a tropical wave, the hurricane moved to the west, and hit the eastern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula days later. After crossing the peninsula, the hurricane reached the Gulf of Mexico. It journeyed westward, reaching winds of at least 115 mph (185 km/h), with the possibility it was a Category 4 or even a Category 5.

The Racer's Storm reached the western Gulf of Mexico, and hit extreme northeastern Mexico near Matamoros, Tamaulipas, on October 2. The hurricane nearly stalled over land, and drifted northwestward towards Brownsville, Texas. A high pressure system brought the storm to the northeast over the Gulf of Mexico, where it came close to Matagorda Bay on the 4th. This makes the Racer's Storm one of only three tropical systems to hit Texas and exit back into the Gulf of Mexico, the others being Tropical Storm Delia in 1973 and Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.

On October 5 the hurricane passed Galveston, Texas, and continued its northeast movement. The Racer's Storm made its third landfall near Venice, Louisiana on the night of the 6th, and moved eastward across Louisiana. From here, its history is unclear. Some historians track the hurricane to the northeast across Mississippi and Alabama, while others say the hurricane moved eastward, re-emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, and hit Pensacola on the 7th. Regardless, the hurricane was moving northeastward through Georgia.

The Racer's Storm moved offshore near Charleston, South Carolina on October 9 as a weakening tropical storm. It tracked northeastward, and made its final landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina that night. It crossed the Outer Banks and emerged into the Atlantic Ocean late on the 9th. After this the storm's history is unknown, but it likely became extratropical over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean as it went out to sea.
[edit] Impact
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Interesting that at the end of the five day cone for Fiona, they show a dramatic slow down. Someone more educated in tropical weather than I (pretty much everyone here) care to explain what would cause such a slowdown? Lack of steering?
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Do remember that the change those forecast points daily..so Earl is not hitting the forecast points set yesterday...he would need to cross the 20N at 65W, which he will miss to the South...


Yeah, you can always be right when you change your projections every hour or so. lol
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1918. angiest
My short-term motion estimate for Earl is now 300 degrees.Slightly left of what I had earlier.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting weatherman12345:
Is 97l Fiona yet?


Yes...track is up on NHC they just havent updated the picture at the top.
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can someone just EXPLAIN whats gonna make it turn north? for the impaired....
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


"It's only a model.."


Been thinking that myself all day :)
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 302042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
I heard there is some awful damage in the virgins, true?
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Fion@ n@med wow.. bout time
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Cooler waters (from Earl & Danielle) going to keep Fiona from strenghthening?
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Quoting yonzabam:


When Katrina emerged into the GOM after crossing southern Florida, the NHC track forecast had it going straight into New Orleans. Don't know how many days out that was, but it was very impressive.


mmmm seems to me, and maybe it was just that it was gonna skirt the fla panhandle, it was forecast to head this way. because i planted expensive grass seed thinking we would get plenty of rain and it went to NOLA instead. Now guess what. I have planted grass seed again. I am sorry! Now we got this huge blob offshore fl panhandle and i aint getting a drop of rain and storms are all going east of fla. If you want me to keep away hurricanes for you send me expensive grass seed!
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Quoting dader:


One thing I think can be said re: the NHC is they blew it in terms of Puerto Rico-- they are in charge there right?


Yes
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1905. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FIONA's track looks like a copy-cat of EARL
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Glandular hormones are why I love you.


Now ain't that jus' like a man... LOL!!!
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Do remember that the change those forecast points daily..so Earl is not hitting the forecast points set yesterday...he would need to cross the 20N at 65W, which he will miss to the South...
That's right. Not only daily, but they can change with each update. So, the NHC is right on the money, at least once during the period. But, I think they have a good handle on Earl now. imo
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1902. bird72
Quoting Relix:


Toa Baja, PR. Btw getting strong winds and rain now.

I was in Toa Baja in my work. Now in Toa Alta in my home, pretty windy, my avocado tree got some limbs broken.
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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting GeauxGirl:



Hmmm...I seem to remember it a little differently, but I could be mistaken.


No Geauxgirl, you're right. The first few tracks of Katrina had her going into the panhandle of FL.
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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
There is a Hurricane a few miles off the puerto Rico coast and the Weather Channel is Talking about Katrina. I'm going to their site to let them know what a pathetic bunch of sorry people they have become.
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There is a Hurricane a few miles off the puerto Rico coast and the Weather Channel is Talking about Katrina. I'm going to their site to let them know what a pathetic bunch of sorry people they have become.
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Quoting Relix:


Toa Baja, PR. Btw getting strong winds and rain now.


Animals do sense storms and other natural events. In Puerto Rico's case though, the 50+ MPH winds and heavy rain today probably helped them 'sense' the storm coming.

Before the earthquake in Haiti, we had white pelicans that had flown in from the coast to an inland lake in Texas. Pelicans almost never come to that lake, but suddenly there were 100 or more flocking to the same area. They came from somewhere on the coast. Within 2-days, Haiti had the earthquake. The following day, all the pelicans left.

A week later, the pelicans came back. The following day, Haiti had a really strong aftershock. The next day the pelicans were gone again. We haven't seen them since.

Something made them fly from the coast to an inland lake... and it wasn't for fish, because where they stayed didn't have much. It was really unusual to see pelicans like that in such great numbers suddenly show up. I don't think it was just a coincidence.

If birds, insects or animals start behaving strangely, pay attention. They may sense something we don't. After all, before the Indonesian tsunami, animals began moving inland. How did they know?
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What are your thoughts on the track, Drak?

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I give praise to the NHC and bash them when they miss. I believe they have missed it on Earl.


I agree. Puetro Rico wasn't supposed to even get a whiff of Earl two days ago. Now the models keep curving the projected path up against the front while Earl keeps scooting along down low. Pretty soon, it will require a 120 degree hard right to stay within the projected cone
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1892. K8eCane
Quoting GetReal:


I would say "highly interested" in future movements....


TY for answering GR
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1891. scott39
It wouldnt suprise me with the W trend of Earl, to threaten Fl. IMO
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Quoting yonzabam:


When Katrina emerged into the GOM after crossing southern Florida, the NHC track forecast had it going straight into New Orleans. Don't know how many days out that was, but it was very impressive.


Nope didn't take long, but
whole loop here



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1889. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiona forms

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
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That's odd, we got a renumber for 08L, but it's still classified as "LO" for Low rather than "TD" for Tropical Depression. We also don't have the file for "invest_al082010.invest". Just the renumber. Maybe it's just late, but it usually comes all at once.
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1887. will40
NHC site is gonna need two web pages if this keeps on
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Fiona forecast to remain as a TS.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Assuming 97L gets the upgrade at 5pm, I can't wait to see how the NHC handles the cone. Do they put more weight on the ECMWf or just go with consensus....
They will go with the consensus. I'd bet money on it.
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1883. Asta
Possible reason for moving North??
Link
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Quoting yonzabam:


When Katrina emerged into the GOM after crossing southern Florida, the NHC track forecast had it going straight into New Orleans. Don't know how many days out that was, but it was very impressive.



Hmmm...I seem to remember it a little differently, but I could be mistaken.
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1881. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
07L/MH/E/C4
MARK
19.37N/64.78W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.