Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

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An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting angiest:


I wasn't here in '05, but I am pretty sure I remember stormtop had Gustav hitting NOLA directly as a cat 5. He seems to have to basic modes of operation. Storms swinging in the direction of LA (which Earl hitting South Florida would do), or just heading out to sea.


Yes all his forcast are generally to hit New Orleans... and he got one out of many correct ....all the others were wrong.

and even a broken clock is right two times every 24 hours.
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Quoting FunkStorm:


Which means nothing, its a hurricane, they change course all the time.

Levi is no expert.


Wow, that's a pretty interesting comment...care to back that up with some data?
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tampatom,

you think so? it seems that the forward speed of 97L is going to catch up with Earl unless Earl turns quicker.

97L has already made it very quickly across the atlantic. I think two models yesterday were foreasting a major hurricane hitting south florida, but today that is not the case at all.

strange system. Also, depending on how strong the trough is and when the High builds in into to the northeast will have some impact also.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Quoting katrinakat5:
ok i will try this again dangerous hurricane earl is heading on a west to wnw course with wobbles to the south at times...it sstill hasnt climed to 19 north yet...the high to the north of ear and steering him is grwing stronger and the weakness has almost filled back in..this is keeping earl on that westerly component ...the trof that is supposed to turn earl is a very shallow one ..it will do very little to earl in regards to steering him..the bottom line the most important factoe is ear has not yet made the turn and and watches are already out for the southern bahamas..the NHC has not had a good handle on earl since the beginning..it was going north of the islands and then pass 100 miles n of puerto rico ...not to mention the RIT of earl...so people im just saying you in sou fla could be dealing with a cat 5 breathing down your neck if earl does not turn by 66west...you see what puerto rico is going through now according to the NHC that would never happen...so people in sou fla wise up be alert and be ready for a cat 5 named earl..


i just signed on today and this is the first thing i see and it has me very concerned i have not seen anyone else on the news even mention florida as a possibility
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Quoting JRRP:
that looks like a definite nw movement and not just a wobble.
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Quoting jking1023:
Hi All!! Can someone update me on the current conditions in St. Thomas. My mom is there and I have been unable to reach her......by the way I live on the OBX of North Carolina......


Go to
http://www.voipwx.net/

and click on the link over on the left labeled
VoIP Hurricane Net Report Viewer

Each record that comes up has a link on the right side that gives you the details of where they are. It aint perfect, but you can read on-the-ground reports from people in the affected areas.
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Quoting JRRP:


back to the west after a northwestward wobble?
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Quoting rwdobson:


Actually it's the opposite. A stronger hurricane is pulled northward more easily.


Quite true re Coriolis. I was speaking to steering from the trough.
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I think areas south of Wilmington NC should be fine from Earl. North of there, though, people need to be perparing. Especially places that stick out into the Atlantic like eastern NC, Long Island, New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
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422. srada
Okay the new runs for the GFS has Earl tracking further west if I seeing this right..umm where's the easy button?
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Quoting StormW:


link


Thanks Storm!! We chatted the other day, I'm supposed to be heading there Thursday.....Whats it looking like for the OBX?
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Quoting angiest:


I wasn't here in '05, but I am pretty sure I remember stormtop had Gustav hitting NOLA directly as a cat 5. He seems to have to basic modes of operation. Storms swinging in the direction of LA (which Earl hitting South Florida would do), or just heading out to sea.
Quoting seflagamma:


StormTop,
It has been 5 years since you did a correct forcast...I'm not saying you are right or wrong here because we have yet to see that NE turn...but you were correct with Katrina when everyone else was wrong.

I am in Ft Lauderdale and we are mostly prepared for the season, just always those last minute items...but I'm just not worried about Earl yet for South Florida.
But strangers things have happened.
I was in FT. Lauderdale right off of andrews Ave from 2003 until the week before wilma hit. I would only keep a close eye on it , beginning tomorrow.
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jog to NW, Aye...

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=19.34484&lon=-64.58038&zoom=9&type=hyb&units=english&rad =1&rad.num=6&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=58&rad.stm=0&rad.type=N0Z&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.mrg=0&wxsn=0&svr= 0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.opa=70& hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&pb=0
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417. amd
latest recon fixes suggests that Earl is finally beginning a true WNW motion (with an increase in speed)

1st fix: 18.5167 N 63.0000W 11:56:00Z
2nd fix: 18.6000 N 63.3333W 13:42:10Z
3rd fix: 18.8167 N 63.7333W 15:27:50Z

Also, pressures are falling quickly now with pressures of 964 mb, 960 mb, and 957 mb (with winds above 20 knots, so pressures could be 955 or 956 mb) respectively for each of the latest three vortex messages.
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Quoting katrinakat5:
ok i will try this again dangerous hurricane earl is heading on a west to wnw course with wobbles to the south at times...it sstill hasnt climed to 19 north yet...the high to the north of ear and steering him is grwing stronger and the weakness has almost filled back in..this is keeping earl on that westerly component ...the trof that is supposed to turn earl is a very shallow one ..it will do very little to earl in regards to steering him..the bottom line the most important factoe is ear has not yet made the turn and and watches are already out for the southern bahamas..the NHC has not had a good handle on earl since the beginning..it was going north of the islands and then pass 100 miles n of puerto rico ...not to mention the RIT of earl...so people im just saying you in sou fla could be dealing with a cat 5 breathing down your neck if earl does not turn by 66west...you see what puerto rico is going through now according to the NHC that would never happen...so people in sou fla wise up be alert and be ready for a cat 5 named earl..


another westcaster
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Estimated from radar, I am seeing a short-term motion of ~305 degrees.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Flyairbird:


I have friends in provincetown loading up on the liquor..LOL


Reminds me of my days living in Newport, RI. Hurricane supplies where all bought at a liquor store. Ahhh to be young again....
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Quoting Relix:
Earl has moved .1N and .1W in an hour.


that is NW
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I'm looking for a site where I can get the size of various wind fields for a tropical storm/hurricane. I know the NHC puts this in their Public Advisories (example below), but for hurricane-strength winds, they don't break it out by Category (i.e., Cat 1, Cat 2, Cat 3).

Example:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

This example is from the latest Advisory for Hurricane Earl (a Cat 3), so I'd like to know the size of the wind fields that are Cat 1, vs Cat 2, vs Cat 3.

Hope this makes sense. Thanks!
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411. JRRP
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410. Relix
Earl has moved .1N and .1W in an hour.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2648
07L/MH/E/C3
MARK
19.12N/64.17W


COME ABOUT 322 DEGREES
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Model data link (cmc, ewmwf, gfdl, gfs, hwrf,ngp)

96 hrs CMC


90 hrs GFS

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Of course all intensifying hurricanes tend to wobble we'll have to see if the NW/NNW trend continues.
Quoting ticka1:
Will the florida coastline feel any wave effect from Hurricane Earl or is he too far out?
wave model shows 8-10 footers reaching the coast from central to the northern coast of florida as earl passes by.
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405. skook
http://www.comoestaeso.com/forums/content.php?25-Live-La-Pared-Surf-Cam


Quite a few webcams from PR.
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Hello OBX... definate left shift
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Quoting newportrinative:
I just know that our Labor weekend plans are ruined here in Ft Lauderdale. Was planning a weekend at the beach but the rip currents are CRAZY here now w/ Danielle and Earl coming by....blah!!!


Look like a great week - weekend to me :)

Nice swell and blue sky .
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 15:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 15:27:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°49'N 63°44'W (18.8167N 63.7333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 155 miles (250 km) to the E (80°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,734m (8,970ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (76°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 153° at 116kts (From the SSE at ~ 133.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 957mb (28.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:21:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the E (82°) from the flight level center
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Quoting ticka1:
Will the florida coastline feel any wave effect from Hurricane Earl or is he too far out?


You can count on it... waves will be up...
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399. JRRP
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Earl moves more west...
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Quoting klaatuborada:

Ok, here I am ------------------------------right above here ^ on the old Cape of Cod.

And Earl was s'posed to turn. Gosh darn weathermen, never get it right. Watch me get slammed.


I have friends in provincetown loading up on the liquor..LOL
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NAM shows Earl off the coast of the carolinas and seems to be moving inland.



GFS shows Earl grazing the carolinas




and then grazing the NJ/NY coast
Member Since: November 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
Quoting aspectre:
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned northward to 1.8degrees north of NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of 10.6degrees west of NorthNorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~16.7mph(~26.8km/h)

29Aug . 03pmGMT - - 17.2n58.4w - - 75mph - - - 985mb - -NHC.Adv. #17
29Aug . 06pmGMT - - 17.4n58.9w - - 75mph - - - 978mb - - #17A
29Aug . 09pmGMT - - 17.6n59.5w - - 85mph - - - 978mb - - #18
30Aug . 12amGMT - - 17.7n60.3w - - 85mph - - - 972mb - - #18A
30Aug . 03amGMT - - 17.9n61.1w - 100mph - - - 971mb - - #19
30Aug . 06amGMT - - 18.1n61.8w - 100mph - - - 969mb - - #19A
30Aug . 09amGMT - - 18.3n62.4w - 105mph - - - 969mb - - #20
30Aug . 12pmGMT - - 18.4n62.9w - 110mph - - - 965mb - - #20A
30Aug . 03pmGMT - - 18.7n63.6w - 120mph - - - 960mb - - #21

Copy&paste 17.2n58.4w, 17.4n58.9w, 17.6n59.5w, 17.7n60.3w, 17.9n61.1w-18.1n61.8w, 18.1n61.8w-18.3n62.4w, 18.3n62.4w-18.4n62.9w, 18.4n62.9w-18.7n63.6w, ngd, gdt, myg, pbi, 18.7n63.6w-22.4n73.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

H.Earl's center had made a close passage north of or had hit northernAnguilla.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~38hours from now to Mayaguana after passing*north of Anegada,BritishVirginIslands and closely passing north of the Turks&Caicos

* though close enough that storm surge and storm waves will probably inundate all of the buildings there. There are no safe heights on Anegada.


NO N of WNW
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Quoting ticka1:
Will the florida coastline feel any wave effect from Hurricane Earl or is he too far out?


Rip currents. Spoiled our Labor Day weekend at the beach. Will just hang at home in the pool. Don't want to risk it with our 6 yr old.
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Quoting seflagamma:


StormTop,
It has been 5 years since you did a correct forcast...I'm not saying you are right or wrong here because we have yet to see that NE turn...but you were correct with Katrina when everyone else was wrong.

I am in Ft Lauderdale and we are mostly prepared for the season, just always those last minute items...but I'm just not worried about Earl yet for South Florida.
But strangers things have happened.


I wasn't here in '05, but I am pretty sure I remember stormtop had Gustav hitting NOLA directly as a cat 5. He seems to have to basic modes of operation. Storms swinging in the direction of LA (which Earl hitting South Florida would do), or just heading out to sea.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting weatherxtreme:

Please stop inducing panic here. There are lurkers here that may panic based on your comments.
Quoting weatherxtreme:

Please stop inducing panic here. There are lurkers here that may panic based on your comments.
Well, I'm in Melbourne Florida. We had nice 6' waves from Danielle on saturday so even earl within 100 miles would be no big deal really. Maybe some 8' swells and some rain. Wouldn't want to be in there with them though. The rips can be brutal around these parts.
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Quoting IamTheCanesSurfer:


Matter if the eyewall cross your house - trust me :)
I remember when I Lived in S Florida that someone was in their hammock in the Bahamas, and when the eyewall crossed they got blown out of their hammock right into a brick wall...LOL I couldn't ordinarily laugh at that but people do dumb things.
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387. wjdow
Quoting usa777:

____________________
Well if you have 25 yrs worth of hurricane experience, why would you of listened to the NHC to begin with?


kk5's point is that nhc missed once, on katrina's track, five years ago. therefore you should never believe nhc again. kk5 was right at least once in 25 years, so you should always believe him, and E is heading to s.fla.
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Ok, here I am ----------------------------------right above here ^ on the old Cape of Cod.

And Earl was s'posed to turn. Gosh darn weathermen, never get it right. Watch me get slammed.
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Of course all intensifying hurricanes tend to wobble we'll have to see if the NW/NNW trend continues.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Quoting BDAwx:
What kind of storm surge would you get from a category 2 hurricane going up the Bay of Fundy?

It would definitely be something to see! Do to time constraints (I was traveling with family) I didn't get to watch the tide come in when I was there. Hard to imagine looking at the low tide perspective.


During high tide it would be very dangerous. I've seen the tides personally many times, even done rafting in them out Shubenacadie. Even lost my car keys to rapidly rising coastal waters. I would wander a guess that a Cat 2 surge at high tide would be something I wouldn't want to witness close by live.
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Quoting latrendsetter:
Its Official, All tv stations in south florida are now reporting if that earl does not take that nw track and not just a jog to the nw within 24 hours that south florida will be under the gun. There saying for everyone to pay attention for the next 24 hours to see what develops.

*****VOICE YOUR OPINIONS************





Uuummm, not from what I see. I'm watching channel 4 news and they were just talking about beach conditions "WHEN EARL PASSES BY US".
Enough already.....
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Post 357, it has never been going NNW, get your directions straight. Its closer to WNW, not a degree or two from NNW!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.