Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

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An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SeVaSurfer:


So you think the track may be adjusted westward again later? Something about the High nudging more westward and the cool front that may not be as strong and may be late in getting to the east coast?? All crucial facors I would imagine,,,I am no expert, thanks to all you guys that post in here.

From the Boston office of NWS
HURRICANE EARL...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST WITH 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/GGEM AND UKMET TAKING EARL VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET FRI.
HOWEVER THE 00Z AND 06Z TROPICAL SUITE OF MODELS ARE MUCH FARTHER
EAST WITH GOOD CLUSTERING SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS
STILL LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

THE TWO STEERING MECHANISMS WILL BE AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS MID WEEK AND ALSO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN-CENTRAL ATLC. THE
SEPARATION BETWEEN EARL AND THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...AS TOO MUCH SEPARATION WILL PRECLUDE TROF
FROM INTERACTING AND PULLING EARL CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION
THE TILT AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF WILL IMPACT EARL/S PATH.

IT/S WORTH NOTING NONE OF THE GUID /NOT EVEN ONE SINGLE MEMBER/ IS
OVER OR WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TRACK OF EARL...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INCREASE OUR CONCERN. NEVERTHELESS WE NEED TO WATCH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM CLOSELY.
Link
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Quoting hurricaneman123:
Earl is well on its way to becoming a CAT 4 hurricane... i predict the winds to be at 130 mph



I used photoshop to blend the RGB with the Water Vapor to highlight the eye wall and eye... looks like Earl is becoming a string hurricane... should go through eye wall replacement tonight
What is a "string hurricane?"
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Why did NHC come out an hour early???!
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678. 7544
wow a early update i knew the bahamas will get a watch thats what i was waiting for yo go kat keep us updated and use caps lolwhos next

660. nyhurricaneboy 12:56 PM EDT on August 30, 2010
BREAKING NEWS

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301654
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDSthats

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Quoting Cotillion:


That's Saba, not Anguilla according to the location.

(Saba is part of the Netherlands Antilles, around hundred miles - at a guess - SE of Saint Martin/Sint Maarten).

Close enough though, so thanks for the link.


Oh yes, you are right! I'll let ya know if anything else pops up ..
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
CPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES



FOr once I think the NHC may be a tad far south on present motion (I am sitting at 299 degrees and they have 285). Of course, what I am watching has likely not been going on long enough to result in an adjustment.
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Earl isn't a fish storm...

It's already impacting homes and livelihoods as we type/speak.
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Hey Floodman. How you today? I have been on here watching this blog for sometime. When does school start? I enjoy the bantering but 1 deg north and its headed nw and out to sea. A bobble and its west to Florida. Its been fun. I cant wait to see how this plays out. Earl is truly been a wild one to watch. That trof is not going to be big enough if he keeps growing IMO. Hopefully so but its gonna be a rock and a hardplace when they meet.
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Wind and waves damaging a warf in Saint John.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Ya think I'm joking?! Be careful what you get yourself into.


Give him the sedagive!
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Dont know if you have facebook but someone just posted pics from Anguilla :
http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/album.php?aid=2076438&id=1285812828&fbid=1592901984213&a mp;ref=mf


That's Saba, not Anguilla according to the location.

(Saba is part of the Netherlands Antilles, around hundred miles - at a guess - SE of Saint Martin/Sint Maarten). *Edit- SW, sorry.

Close enough though, so thanks for the link.
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Very nice webcam of St. Croix

http://www.stcroixtourism.com/gotostcroix_webcam.htm
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Someone had a question about lightning in hurricane's? ...I was on Katrina's east side and I saw alot of lightning. One of the things One thing I clearly remember thinking was. God if I dont drown i'm going to get struck by lightning.
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Quoting dmh1026:
Earl is moving just the the NHC has forecasted...


Come on, you can't be serious?
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Quoting reedzone:
Just because Earl turns north earlier does not mean any good news for the East Coast, the trough that recurves it has not even formed in the midwest yet.


So you think the track may be adjusted westward again later? Something about the High nudging more westward and the cool front that may not be as strong and may be late in getting to the east coast?? All crucial facors I would imagine,,,I am no expert, thanks to all you guys that post in here.
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Quoting connie1976:
I think my posting vanished? lol

Anyway, I'm very sorry & I'm praying for all who will be affected by this storm....

I'm EXTREMELY happy that South Florida is not in the path of this one..

not yet but u never know till its gone by further north
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aspectre "HurricaneEarl's heading had turned northward to 1.8degrees north of NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of 10.6degrees west of NorthNorthWest"
394 asgolfr999 "NO. N of WNW"

Thanks. And another thanks to angiest. Corrected and edited to: 1.8degrees north of WestNorthWest from its previous heading of 10.6degrees west of WestNorthWest

This is the THIRD time I've made that same mistake. Twice from 'copy&paste"ing in a previous error on a form I keep on Notepad, then not really reading it: checking the coordinates closely but not the words.
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BREAKING NEWS

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301654
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

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CPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
658. 7544
fiona is getting it together every mets say that the one for fla to watch i agree
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Quoting Relix:
NW turn is evident already for a few frames. It's straight on forecast points



Not so fast Old Wise One:


Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Quoting DestinJeff:
It should be mentioned that Earl's short term motion, while related, is not the main driver of the forecast recurve near the OBX.

It is a trough of low pressure set to do that job, which is nowhere near influencing Earl's movement at the moment. Earl must gain latitude, as all storms must, if he wishes to fully feel the trough.

The current steering is related to a Sub tropical High, which Earl is having a hard time getting around the sw periphery... much the way Ivan did near Jamaica in 2004.

All should go to plan, but the recurve certainly can happen at a different longtitude quite easily with continued westward movment of Earl in the short-term.... a la Ivan, 2004.


a much needed reminder for some on here.
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Quoting dukeuncluver:
I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. I want to thank Dr Masters for this blog and for the Weather Underground site. I love his concise and well thought out posts. I think it's how he writes about complicated weather issues in a way I can understand them is what i like the best. I especially am thankful for his posts about all the misinformation and fake science floating around about global warming.

The second thing I would like to mention is I love reading everyone's opinion about the weather and where the hurricanes are going. I am very grateful for the posters who support their ideas with a grounding in science. To me, it doesn't matter who is right the most or who is wrong, it just matters what's behind the opinion.

I've had a bad feeling about Earl ever since a lot of the people on this forum expressed every emotion from confusion to dismay about the "official" track of the storm. Since I live in NC, as a rule, I always have bottled water, batteries, bug stray, and oil lamps on hand. My power was out for over three week with Fran and over two weeks with Floyd, plus weeks at a time for the different "ice storms," so I keep things stocked. Still, I am praying that Earl becomes a "Fish Storm."

I won't post again until I have something to say. Again, I want to thank everyone who has a well thought out and supported opinion regardless of being "right" or "wrong". Thank you for sharing your hard work and ideas.



+1. Best comment of the day. Couldn't have relayed that better.
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Some of what people are seeing in the motion is a cycloidal effect... it happens in very strong storms... they cycloidal motion is impressed on the base course and in this case on the right hand side...
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652. NJ2S
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
07L/MH/E/C3
MARK
19.00N/63.99W


jog to the north ? :)
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Quoting truecajun:


that's what i'm thinking. it's too soon for a new eye. he just got this one nice and closed up

He also did an EWRC right upon forming, too. I'm just going by radar presentation.
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Quoting truecajun:


thanks cotillion. i'm curious about Anguilla too.


Dont know if you have facebook but someone just posted pics from Anguilla :
http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/album.php?aid=2076438&id=1285812828&fbid=1592901984213&ref=mf
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. I want to thank Dr Masters for this blog and for the Weather Underground site. I love his concise and well thought out posts. I think it's how he writes about complicated weather issues in a way I can understand them is what i like the best. I especially am thankful for his posts about all the misinformation and fake science floating around about global warming.

The second thing I would like to mention is I love reading everyone's opinion about the weather and where the hurricanes are going. I am very grateful for the posters who support their ideas with a grounding in science. To me, it doesn't matter who is right the most or who is wrong, it just matters what's behind the opinion.

I've had a bad feeling about Earl ever since a lot of the people on this forum expressed every emotion from confusion to dismay about the "official" track of the storm. Since I live in NC, as a rule, I always have bottled water, batteries, bug stray, and oil lamps on hand. My power was out for over three week with Fran and over two weeks with Floyd, plus weeks at a time for the different "ice storms," so I keep things stocked. Still, I am praying that Earl becomes a "Fish Storm."

I won't post again until I have something to say. Again, I want to thank everyone who has a well thought out and supported opinion regardless of being "right" or "wrong". Thank you for sharing your hard work and ideas.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah the satellite is over an hour behind the radar, by the time the sat catches up i wont be suprised if its under the TFP...


Use a GHCC loop, satellite image updates every 10-15 minutes.
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relix where are you from san juan
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Does Jeff Masters forecast for the United States only...like a tunnel vision thing...or does he realize that there are concerns for hurricanes outside the US...seesm this site is for sherman tanks only....
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To all of those who had young babies after/during a hurricane, I couldn't even imagine!! During Charlie (when I lived in orlando, now I'm in south florida), my oldest was a toddler and we were hiding in a closet!! It was scary!! Then I went to my mom's house because we also had no power...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Lightning tends to be seen with tropical systems that are gaining strength. Earl has plenty.



yikes! i hate lightening!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats just scary on so many different levels....


LOL

I'm watching you Orca!

\ /
O O
-
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641. 7544
agree he did move nw before but somthing stoped him and he went back to the west this might happen for the next 8 hours hmmmmm
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Quoting SeVaSurfer:


whats this? link did not appear?


GOT IT VERO,,THANKS
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Quoting Cotillion:


Take care.

---

In Antigua, powerful wind and rain destroyed at least one home and at least eight people had to be evacuated, though there were no reports of critical injuries. Emergency response officials said about 350 people were in shelters. Local weather authorities reported at least 5 inches (13 centimeters) of rain and 10-foot (3-meter) waves.

In St. Maarten, the storm toppled trees and knocked out electricity to much of the island but there were no reports of serious damage. Heavy gusts of wind swirled debris across streets that were empty due to a government-imposed curfew.

Link

Good news... so far.

Can't find anything on the state of Anguilla, though (which was closest to the eyewall).


thanks cotillion. i'm curious about Anguilla too.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Hey Big fish wit da halo

You are in here with us...
so what does that say


Ummmm no comment :)
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636. xcool
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
07L/MH/E/C3
MARK
19.00N/63.99W

definately NOT west during that 4 hours
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Quoting MahFL:
Another wobble west.


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633. 7544
hes drifting west now
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Quoting Floodman:


LOL...stormtop on Grizz tranks...now THAT'S funny


Ya think I'm joking?! Be careful what you get yourself into.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


Link

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar. Its still on a WNW motion. Its wobbling North, then west, ect, ect... I don't think the turn has occurred yet.


Agree. Recent motion appears to be near 300 degrees, or just a little north of WNW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.