Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

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An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

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2031. primez
You know what's crazy? Alex still had a lower pressure than Earl has right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
So much for a season bust as so many on here have been preaching. 6 3 2 and still adding as Gaston looks to be gathering behind Fiona.


although still a LONG way to go to reach the 18 forecast. We're only at 6 now. Of course a long way in the season too.
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Quoting winter123:
I'm already looking over here, south of the CV islands.


that wave train looks... ominous.
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2026. unf97
I think we will very soon have Invest 98L. The new wave emerging from off the coast of Africa looks very impressive with a very nice ball of convection that has flared as this system seems to be already organizing fairly well.
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2025. Relix


There's no way I am feeling Tropical Storm winds here. Maybe a gust or so.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Why would I have you on ignore? I agree with you, there is a possibility Earl could peak as a 160 Category 5 hurricane before a EWRC.
Good thing most of the models keep this beast of shore,but then again we can not be so sure,we learned that with charley,and beach erosion with significant wave heights are still a possibility for the east coast with dangerous rip currents.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Still thinking 145-150.. maybe 155.

As said, someone's got to say it won't make Cat 5.
Nobody can say that for sure though the prediction says winds will reach 150mph just 6mph more and you have a cat 5
Is it just me or did the track shift west?
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2022. angiest
All right, for others watching on radar, are all of the mesocyclones being picked up in the eyewall actually eyewall mesovorticies?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting yonzabam:


Yep. I've looked at the archive and they had it going into the panhandle after it emerged into the GOM. Sorry about that.


It's okay ;) You would've had to have been here...that changing track is permanently embedded in our brains!
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Quoting kwgirl:
I don't know why you watch them for weather. They do sensational reporting. I only hope Jim Cantore comes to Key West. it will guarantee a "NO Hit" LOL

See if they cover Earl too much what may happen is people may get anxious and start stocking up on supplies. That would leave less money to buy the Male Enhancement pills and Head-on garbage that are constantly being hawked during commercial breaks
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You are nuts!...the storm is days away..wake up


Quoting Cotillion:
I would not be surprised to see a TS Watch for NC later tonight/early tomorrow.
Quoting Cotillion:
I would not be surprised to see a TS Watch for NC later tonight/early tomorrow.
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2016. srada
I see Fiona not as strong because Earl will cool down those waters and that might just make him a Cat 5 after this is said and done..
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
Looks to me like it might be heading to North Cackalacky
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2013. Walnut
Quoting Asta:


Not good...
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2012. HarryMc
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Poll Time:
What chance do you think Earl has
of being a Cat5?

A: None

B: 20%

C: 50%

D: 80%

E: 100%

A
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For some reason I'm willing to bet that Fiona is gonna be 200 miles off
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Looking for info on the islands it reached. Anyone have links or info please post. Thanks. This is what i have found so far

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2009. kwgirl
Well time for me to go home to my dog. I will trust you all to keep an eye on Earl. See you tomorrow.
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2007. Asta
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2006. marmark
This is a good time to remind everyone that NHC average track forecast errors are 200 to 300 miles at days 4 and 5.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think it'll peak at 160mph before it undergoes an EWRC, should have another 24-36 hours before that happens.


Still thinking 145-150.. maybe 155.

As said, someone's got to say it won't make Cat 5.
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I'm already looking over here, south of the CV islands.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A stadium effect starting to take place, when is recon?

It already has that stadium affect :P. Anyways, Recon will be in there at 8pm EDT to 2am EDT.
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2002. Asta
A storm is a system, not a point.

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Quoting Asta:

You are mistaken.
LINK- NOAA KATRINA FORECASTS

"...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED
AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS
SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR."


Link


That was August 27...Katrina emerged off of FL on August 26 and the initial cone BARELY had LA in it. All this is visible in the graphics archive. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml
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Poll Time:
What chance do you think Earl has
of being a Cat5?

A: None

B: 20%

C: 50%

D: 80%

E: 100%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1999. Walnut
Quoting winter123:
WHy are they still issuing advisories on Danielle? It's completely extratropical, remnant low with no convection, completely absorbed in a front.


Shipping interests.
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I would imagine that NHC can come up with some new wording in the discussion regarding the track. It's really getting boring IMO
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1997. divdog
Quoting BobinTampa:
Ok westcasters, time to get to work on Fiona!

She hasn't turned north yet. She missed the weakness. Timing isn't right for that trof to affect her. If I was in Venezuala, I'd be watching Fiona very closely.
try posting something constructive instead of ranting so much
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1996. scott39
Fiona looks like something Earl scraped of of his shoe.
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Cat 5... you and I all know its coming....
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WHy are they still issuing advisories on Danielle? It's completely extratropical, remnant low with no convection, completely absorbed in a front.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You probally have me o ignore but I hink it's a possibility that Earl becomes a cat 5.A lot of some of the well known forecaster think there ia a chance also.


Why would I have you on ignore? I agree with you, there is a possibility Earl could peak as a 160 Category 5 hurricane before a EWRC.
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Quoting winter123:


Oh wow, if something makes in into the carribean. BOOM. Well I still see due west movement of Earl.


at least it dropped his mainly W and SW jog components just in time to spare pr
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Hello bloggers,
Interaction between Fiona and Earl may be starting. Will they dance?

24 WVL animation shows her drawing closer to him. You can also see the large movements of atmosphere. Please click image for animated WVL through 2015 GMT today-RAMSDIS, flash
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Quoting NOLA2005:


Not so! Check out NHC advisory archives here:
Link


Yep. I've looked at the archive and they had it going into the panhandle after it emerged into the GOM. Sorry about that.
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1988. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1971. Cotillion 8:52 PM GMT on August 30, 2010


That's 150mph.

Cat 4.


haha

I was too slow to retract my post comment
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SINCE FIONA STILL LACKS SOME ORGANIZATION AND THE WIND FIELD IS
SOMEWHAT LARGE...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
STRUCTURE IS HANDLED WELL BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WHICH INTENSIFY FIONA TO A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...SO I AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND
HWRF AT THIS POINT. IN FACT...THE GFS DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN
2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE
INTENSITY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WHEN IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR
.

That may be from the outflow of Earl, considering Fiona is moving at 24 mph while Earl is moving at only 15 mph.
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A stadium effect starting to take place, when is recon?

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Earl predicted to peak at 150 mph, just 6 mph short of Category 5 status.
You probally have me o ignore but I hink it's a possibility that Earl becomes a cat 5.A lot of some of the well known forecaster think there ia a chance also.
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1984. Patrap
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I think Earl is a bottom feeder ...



Oh wow, if something makes in into the carribean. BOOM. Well I still see due west movement of Earl.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Yes, lack of steering or a blocking ridge. One of two scenarios would play out. A trough breaks the ridge and she is lifted out or the ridge strengthens and drive her back west. Look at Jeanne's track in 2004 and see how the ridge blocked the northward progression and made her do a cyclonic loop back to the west.


Cool...thanks! I'll be rooting for the trough option as opposed to the blocking ridge option! :-)
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Quoting Cotillion:


That's 150mph.

Cat 4.
I think it'll peak at 160mph before it undergoes an EWRC, should have another 24-36 hours before that happens.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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