Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

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An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR2:


Its wobbling around. XD

Earl is flinging around so much energy towards his center, so we will see several wobbles during the day, until he maxes out, near 140-145MPH..
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Quoting GetReal:


important to note, forecast track goes through 19N 64W, which is where Earl is now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7395
Quoting Cotillion:


We're on an advisory every 2 hours instead of 3 due to proximity to land.

NHC did the same with Alex as it approached the Mexican coast.
...................couple more islands getting whacked. Not by the eye though...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20520
pressure down to 953 per recon... still strengthening.. we may see sub 940 by days end
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Is it just me, or is the ridge building south and west on the water vapor loop?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

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Quoting truecajun:


interesting. i don't remember lightning in Andrew or Gustav. skypony clearly showed us lightning in Earl, so i guess it's a myth that there is no lightning in hurricanes.


The majority of it was when the eye wall was close. In fact I think all of it was.
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Quoting TerraNova:
The Settlement (that little boomerang shaped island off to the north of the Virgin islands) is about to get a glancing blow by Earl's southern eyewall.


The Settlement is the town, Anegada is the island.

*pedantry*

But yeah... their turn next.
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I'll post the link again to St. Martin radio for those who are interested.

Laser 101.1 FM St. Martin (Carribean-radio.com)
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Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
Tornado Vortex Sig over PR right now
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07L/MH/E/C4
MARK
19.02N/64.00W
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Saturday...after some Pinapple Rum...I was wobbling west, but traveled due north...then everything went south...My name is Ear...uh I mean Conch ;-p
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That's today. Earl is definitely not following the track that was put out 4 days ago. I'm not an NHC hater, but I think it's very silly to sing their praises on this one.

It's following the model! Umm, it seems the model is following Earl.
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Let us all remember our WU blogger friends and their families in the Lesser Antilles, PR, US/British VI and surround areas.

Let us hope and pray that they are well and their recovery efforts go well.

Earl is intensifying steadily, 955MB/125MPH winds, at this rate it's possible we will have a CAT 4 by 5PM AST today.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


this one is about Anguilla :
Link


Thanks!
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Hey Relix, are you in PR. IF so I would keep both eyes on Earl.
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713. 7544
Quoting Relix:
Due west wobble now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=01101111&loop=yes


agree the nhc sees this trend for the last 24 hrs thats why they included the bahamas now witch may get upgraded to a huricane watch in 24 hours jmo
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Is it just me or is Earl stationary right now? Is this old?

that only runs for 25 minutes, you wouldnt see much there
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
711. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
Due west wobble now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=01101111&loop=yes


Its wobbling around. XD
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The Settlement (that little boomerang shaped island off to the north of the Virgin islands) is about to get a glancing blow by Earl's southern eyewall.
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I have posted my thoughts on Earl and 97L... i have also given my predictions for both storms in my blog... please do check it out
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Quoting Tropicaldan:
There has been no respite, Earl is giving St Martin a pounding

The winds are still out of the south and have been worse than those from the west and north which we previously endured all night early morning

Rain has also now become a major factor , torrential and unrelenting for two or three hours now....flood risk areas must be overflowing, though I dont know that for sure

The noise inside the appartment is becoming distressing, the endless deafening roar of the wind, the hammering of rain on the zinc roof and the sound of wood and zinc creaking and groaning under strain...

We need this to finish soon !!

Its not a Luis for sure, but it IS an Earl !

Dan



As I am sure everyone here will say
Be Safe and See you on the other side.
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707. srada
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Hey KOG,

Where did you get this map from?
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The southern edge of the eyewall will pass about 12 miles north of The Settlement... a very close pass vice passing closely to the NE per the blog...
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Is it just me or is Earl stationary right now? Is this old?

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Quoting usa777:
Someone had a question about lightning in hurricane's? ...I was on Katrina's east side and I saw alot of lightning. One of the things One thing I clearly remember thinking was. God if I dont drown i'm going to get struck by lightning.


interesting. i don't remember lightning in Andrew or Gustav. skypony clearly showed us lightning in Earl, so i guess it's a myth that there is no lightning in hurricanes.
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702. Relix
Due west wobble now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=01101111&loop=yes
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2650
Quoting Cotillion:
Earl isn't a fish storm...

It's already impacting homes and livelihoods as we type/speak.


this one is about Anguilla :
Link
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Quoting medicroc:

From the Boston office of NWS
HURRICANE EARL...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST WITH 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/GGEM AND UKMET TAKING EARL VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET FRI.
HOWEVER THE 00Z AND 06Z TROPICAL SUITE OF MODELS ARE MUCH FARTHER
EAST WITH GOOD CLUSTERING SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS
STILL LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

THE TWO STEERING MECHANISMS WILL BE AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS MID WEEK AND ALSO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN-CENTRAL ATLC. THE
SEPARATION BETWEEN EARL AND THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...AS TOO MUCH SEPARATION WILL PRECLUDE TROF
FROM INTERACTING AND PULLING EARL CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION
THE TILT AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF WILL IMPACT EARL/S PATH.

IT/S WORTH NOTING NONE OF THE GUID /NOT EVEN ONE SINGLE MEMBER/ IS
OVER OR WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TRACK OF EARL...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INCREASE OUR CONCERN. NEVERTHELESS WE NEED TO WATCH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM CLOSELY.
Link


Well I guess I can figure that out,,kinda? Not understanding the "seperation of the trough" and it's impact on the track of Earl?
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Quoting Tropicaldan:
There has been no respite, Earl is giving St Martin a pounding

The winds are still out of the south and have been worse than those from the west and north which we previously endured all night early morning

Rain has also now become a major factor , torrential and unrelenting for two or three hours now....flood risk areas must be overflowing, though I dont know that for sure

The noise inside the appartment is becoming distressing, the endless deafening roar of the wind, the hammering of rain on the zinc roof and the sound of wood and zinc creaking and groaning under strain...

We need this to finish soon !!

Its not a Luis for sure, but it IS an Earl !

Dan


Thanks for the updates, take care.

There's a webcam posted earlier from Nettle Bay on the 'French side' which shows serious flooding.

Link
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697. 7544
hes still in the herbert box folks
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Dont know if you have facebook but someone just posted pics from Anguilla :
http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/album.php?aid=2076438&id=1285812828&fbid=1592901984213&ref=mf


Thanks Treasure Coast...this will be an interesting storm to track...
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

That is the track forecast of Danielle.


History of Earl's forecast
earl verification
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Why did NHC come out an hour early???!


They're doing A and B advisories now. This is advisory 21A, 21B will come out at 3 AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5.
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Pretty decent winds in the SE quad

Time: 16:55:30Z
Coordinates: 18.8N 63.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,853 meters (~ 9,360 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 228° at 87 knots (From the SW at ~ 100.0 mph)
Air Temp: 9.7°C* (~ 49.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 89 knots (~ 102.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 80 knots (~ 92.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 27 mm/hr (~ 1.06 in/hr)
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Quoting Cotillion:


We're on an advisory every 2 hours instead of 3 due to proximity to land.

NHC did the same with Alex as it approached the Mexican coast.


oh thats neat, so one at 3pm?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6131
Quoting Cotillion:


We're on an advisory every 2 hours instead of 3 due to proximity to land.

NHC did the same with Alex as it approached the Mexican coast.


oh thats neat, so one at 3pm?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6131
There has been no respite, Earl is giving St Martin a pounding

The winds are still out of the south and have been worse than those from the west and north which we previously endured all night early morning

Rain has also now become a major factor , torrential and unrelenting for two or three hours now....flood risk areas must be overflowing, though I dont know that for sure

The noise inside the appartment is becoming distressing, the endless deafening roar of the wind, the hammering of rain on the zinc roof and the sound of wood and zinc creaking and groaning under strain...

We need this to finish soon !!

Its not a Luis for sure, but it IS an Earl !

Dan
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689. beell
Quoting reedzone:
Just because Earl turns north earlier does not mean any good news for the East Coast, the trough that recurves it has not even formed in the midwest yet.


Sure it has. That's it lifting out of the 4 corners area from the US southwest. A slowly progressive trough pushing the ridge east.

Link
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Why did NHC come out an hour early???!


it is close enough to a major landfall (PR) that they will do 2 hour updates until it is far enough from land that the threat of landfall diminishes
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687. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting truecajun:



yikes! i hate lightening!


Many times with a rapidly intensifying system you get really powerful ground to cloud.


Earl
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Quoting BradentonBrew:


Come on, you can't be serious?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Why did NHC come out an hour early???!


We're on an advisory every 2 hours instead of 3 due to proximity to land.

NHC did the same with Alex as it approached the Mexican coast.
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Quoting Floodman:


Give him the sedagive!
Hello Flood....I believe Earl is going to be at Cat-5 strength by late tonight or early tomorrow morning....Your thoughts?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20520
Quoting BradentonBrew:


Come on, you can't be serious?

That is the track forecast of Danielle, not Earl.
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Quoting usa777:
Someone had a question about lightning in hurricane's? ...I was on Katrina's east side and I saw alot of lightning. One of the things One thing I clearly remember thinking was. God if I dont drown i'm going to get struck by lightning.

I had the same thoughts when alex plummeted into mexico.
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Quoting SeVaSurfer:


So you think the track may be adjusted westward again later? Something about the High nudging more westward and the cool front that may not be as strong and may be late in getting to the east coast?? All crucial facors I would imagine,,,I am no expert, thanks to all you guys that post in here.

From the Boston office of NWS
HURRICANE EARL...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST WITH 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/GGEM AND UKMET TAKING EARL VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET FRI.
HOWEVER THE 00Z AND 06Z TROPICAL SUITE OF MODELS ARE MUCH FARTHER
EAST WITH GOOD CLUSTERING SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS
STILL LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

THE TWO STEERING MECHANISMS WILL BE AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS MID WEEK AND ALSO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN-CENTRAL ATLC. THE
SEPARATION BETWEEN EARL AND THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...AS TOO MUCH SEPARATION WILL PRECLUDE TROF
FROM INTERACTING AND PULLING EARL CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION
THE TILT AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF WILL IMPACT EARL/S PATH.

IT/S WORTH NOTING NONE OF THE GUID /NOT EVEN ONE SINGLE MEMBER/ IS
OVER OR WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TRACK OF EARL...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INCREASE OUR CONCERN. NEVERTHELESS WE NEED TO WATCH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM CLOSELY.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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