Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

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An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Storm W, Please tell me if I am understanding this correctly. According to the present NHC forecast, the initial turn to the NW is induced by the current weakness (which seems to have failed to have that effect) and then the trough later in the week is to pull Earl further north and eventually NE? If this first weakness doesn't pull him much, then even if the trough turns him later, he will already be far enough west to make an east coast landfall?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
The ridge moving westward is a good thing, it helps to open that slight weakness enough to help Earl turn NW

What we do not want is for the ridge to move NE

the azores ridge moving west is not good. the conus ridge moving west is good but it is not moving west.
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Quoting katrinakat5:
i was the first and im not from south fla either...i mean what i say sou fla better get ready for cat 5 earl..


You are right that South Florida should get ready , or prepared for a category 5- but it won't be Earl. They should be prepared nonetheless.
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POLL:

What intensity will Earl reach at its peak?

A. High Cat 4
B. Low Cat 5 (160-165 mph winds)
C. Mid Cat 5 (170-175 mph winds)

Where will Earl hit?

A. North Carolina
B. New York
C. Any other area of New England
D. Canada
E. Nothing
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1526. kwgirl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


From the loop here it seems the brownish/orange is dry air representing the high dropping down and the trough that moved Danielle out that it appears Earl has missed. You can really see the clock-wise flow of the high on here above Earl. As for a trough to turn him north, there may be a small trough? over Alabama? And you can see a larger one clearly farther west. Hopefully it beats Earl to the coast. Not sure if that's what supposed to turn him though. Just thinking out loud. :)
Link
After looking at that watervapor loop I feel better. Thanks for the link
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Man... just look at this thing. It's really gone nuts since I last saw it at 9 am this morning...



With no wind shear, and ocean heat content as high as it is, I'm expecting that this will likely be our first category 5 hurricane since 2007 before it's done.
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Quoting hydrus:
Well there givin her a 90% chance. So it must be dern near t.d.


Do you think NHC will decrease their probability for 97L to develop into a tropical depression? Water vapor loop does not show a wet system. Most of that are rain-less clouds. Very dry. Some models believe the size and strength of Earl is enough to destroy the invest.
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1523. trey33
Quoting naitsabes:


Thank you very very much :) (but not good)
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1522. will40
Quoting hydrus:
Hazel was incredible...Pop told me his experience with Hazel...I asked, what was it like? He said BAD.


yes She leveled MoreHead City NC
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It's apt that Earl has a male name...

Missing his turn, getting lost, and not even asking for directions...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rwdobson:


Ok, high temps in Cleveland are forecast to go from the 90s down to the 60s and 70s this weekend. And you're saying the trough is not that strong?


If the temp change is forecast for this weekend, doesn't that mean the trough won't make it to the coast in time? Earl is supposed to up in that region, according to the models, by Thursday?
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StormW - give us some odds. What will force the turn?

A. Departing Danielle weakness
B. CONUS trough


And, elaborate if you will, please. TIA
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1517. snotly
no outflow for nw quadrant
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.


So basically it would be classified soon if it keeps it organization.. So we would probably see a TD tonight..


It says it will become a Tropical Storm if it were to form - on that.
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1515. luigi18
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...as I've said before..this is just the pre game show.

Dr Storm did Earl is moving now west or is my screen?
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Yeah Baby, come see me in Alabama...........come on Earl you can do it.....
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1513. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good afternoon everybody! Earl is indeed one beautiful hurricane and could certainly become the first category 5 hurricane since 2007. I pray that everything is going well over by the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and surrounding areas. Luckily, no fatalities have been reported throughout all the islands, hopefully it remains that way.



Amen! +1
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.


So basically it would be classified soon if it keeps it organization.. So we would probably see a TD tonight..



it would go right too a TS


AL, 97, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 142N, 477W, 35, 1007, LO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1511. JLPR2
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.


So basically it would be classified soon if it keeps it organization.. So we would probably see a TD tonight..


A ts not a td
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Not yet.. Sure hope it does soon though..


It won't anytime soon.
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Quoting snowboy:
Dobbie, the arrival of the legendary trough keeps getting postponed - we have been cooking here for days and there is no sign if you look at the big picture synopsis of the Eastern CONUS high eroding any time soon..


Yes, you are cooking now because you are in front of the trough. There are plenty of signs of that high breaking down in the forecast.
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Quoting twooks:


Apparently there waiting for more convection.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...


ha u beat me to it.. lol
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1506. trey33
Quoting powerlineman2:
Mexico


+1.

then we might be even.
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1504. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1491. MiamiHurricanes09 7:35 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Good afternoon everybody! Earl is indeed one beautiful hurricane and could certainly become the first category 5 hurricane since 2007. I pray that everything is going well over by the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and surrounding areas. Luckily, no fatalities have been reported throughout all the islands, hopefully it remains that way.



really?

It has been that long since Felix..
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1502. 900MB
Earl is a real (big) wobbler! I wouldn't read much into the wobbles- just look at the longer loops.
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Quoting SeaMule:
it looks like Earl has stopped its fast motion wwnw at 15 mph, because it is on the west edge of the ridge. Now, one would think that it's time for Earl to start a more northerly track. However, the currents may not influence him much. the high is building in..Earl has created his own anti-cyclone above...and for this reason a continued motion...as is....ala wwnw or perhaps wnw...will probably continue...a tad slower, and for the next 24 hours. the door may shut for a turn north...and the east coast, and Florida...will soon be puckerin up!


imho


you are the second person to say that
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1500. luigi18
Quoting jrweatherman:


Your eyes are right, it has taken a westward jog. Probably just a wobble and will continue in WNW direction.

is going west
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Not quite RI (42 mb drop in 24 hours), but close; Earl was a 55-knot tropical storm early yesterday morning. Incredible what can happen when all the parts are in place and the machine is working at close to optimum...
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Quoting Krycek1984:


That's a little dramatic and sensationalist, and induces panic.

Let's get back to the facts folks.
That does sound like something out of a movie doesn't it?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
So 97L has a closed circulation, great satellite presentation, persistent (though still light) convection at the center, a fairly low pressure of 1007, and winds of 35 knots...yet the NHC hasn't declared it a TD. Just wonderin'...


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.


So basically it would be classified soon if it keeps it organization.. So we would probably see a TD tonight..
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Quoting naitsabes:
It befuddles me why the NHC hired the clowns they have, when on the blog we have clowns that appear to know more than their clowns; in fact, the cones our blog guys would draw do not even cover any part of the nhc cone. So much for hioring book smart people. Shame on the nhc, always wrong, never being capable of predicting storm paths. I think I will turn to some of these folks for more accurate predictions, after all they have been spewing non scientific forecast by wish or gut, and some even posted thousands of posts on here, that sure replaces a minimum of 8 years of school. I have an idea, all those knowing more than the nhc, why not go work for them, and teach them how it's done. Remember, where the nhc is located, I think you'll need a car to get there, and I don't think the school bus would drop you off there. Also, there are child labor laws that may prevent working over night.


Well Said!
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Looks like Earl is about to miss his turn north.........
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1494. hydrus
Quoting GetReal:
Wow...Even looks like it is becoming better organized on the radar.I would venture to say that northernmost island is getting whipped pretty hard.
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1493. GetReal



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Quoting Flyairbird:
I think we were both looking at our own forecasts, as most of the trough have to pass thru down here anyway in OHIO


Ok, high temps in Cleveland are forecast to go from the 90s down to the 60s and 70s this weekend. And you're saying the trough is not that strong?
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Good afternoon everybody! Earl is indeed one beautiful hurricane and could certainly become the first category 5 hurricane since 2007. I pray that everything is going well over by the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and surrounding areas. Luckily, no fatalities have been reported throughout all the islands, hopefully it remains that way.

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1490. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
what?! LOL

Oklahoma is in Mexico now?
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good afternoon Storm,

after this trough that might pull 97L northward, with the the pattern change setting up the way it is, do you as many troughs trying to come into the Atlantic the way it has been of late?

What are your thoughts on potential Fiona as far as direction and strength?

thanks
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1488. twooks
Quoting Neapolitan:
So 97L has a closed circulation, great satellite presentation, persistent (though still light) convection at the center, a fairly low pressure of 1007, and winds of 35 knots...yet the NHC hasn't declared it a TD. Just wonderin'...


Apparently there waiting for more convection.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...
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1486. snowboy
Dobbie, the arrival of the legendary trough keeps getting postponed - we have been cooking here for days and there is no sign if you look at the big picture synopsis of the Eastern CONUS high eroding any time soon..
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1485. Relix
Quoting GetReal:


Wow it's like a roller coaster! W! WNW! W! WSW! W! XD!
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1484. HarryMc
Quoting hydrus:
Hazel was incredible...Pop told me his experience with Hazel...I asked, what was it like? He said BAD.

I was in first grade in Roanoke Rapids, NC, when Hazel came through. I actually remember the tree falling through our roof and guys in uniforms driving around in huge trucks picking people up.
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Quoting TexasGulf:


How about... if Earl hits NYC as a Cat 2 or greater, it will;
1) Devastate one of the largest ports in the U.S.
2) Seriously wipe out one of the largest, busiest airports in the U.S.
3) Knock out the financial hub of the U.S. for banking and stock trading for the foreseeable future.
4) Knock out major rail transport terminals for the North-East
5) Flooding may ruin the aged electrical, steam and plumbing infrastructure under New York City.
6) Flood many historical buildings.
7) Probably knock out power for MONTHS to major portions of Long Island and Lower Manhattan.
8) The disorder and chaos of a New York without power, water or gas makes the aftermath of Katrina look tame by comparison.

A landfall around the coast of New York would affect an area MUCH bigger than just New York City. It will impact daily life for Millions of people who live a thousand miles from the storm. It's not a good scenario and one our country doesn't need right now.

9) Oh, yeah... and then there's the human aspect of the devastation as well.


That's a little dramatic and sensationalist, and induces panic.

Let's get back to the facts folks.
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Quoting LongBeachNY:
Ground floor APT here on a Barrier island off Long Island...

Definitely watching Earl. Stoked to see 20 foot waves not so stoked that my house is at 6 foot elevation.

Personally I think this going to be a real close call but a time to remember that just because its NY does not mean your safe...

Ill be prepping my backyard for trop winds Friday morning.


You could evacuate to my buddies place in Rockville Centre, but that probably wouldn't be much better.. ;)
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1481. SeaMule
it looks like Earl has stopped its fast motion wwnw at 15 mph, because it is on the west edge of the ridge. Now, one would think that it's time for Earl to start a more northerly track. However, the currents may not influence him much. the high is building in..Earl has created his own anti-cyclone above...and for this reason a continued motion...as is....ala wwnw or perhaps wnw...will probably continue...a tad slower, and for the next 24 hours. the door may shut for a turn north...and the east coast, and Florida...will soon be puckerin up!


imho
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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