Earl poised to rapidly intensify ; now pounding northern Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:16 AM GMT on August 30, 2010

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It's time to make final preparations and get ready to ride out the storm if you live in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight, as Hurricane Earl is on your doorstep. Earl continues to intensify steadily, though not explosively. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 972 mb at 7:38 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 13 mb in ten hours. As is usually the case, it takes six or so hours for a hurricane's winds to respond to a major pressure change, and Earl's winds are now beginning to ramp up. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force were 106 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 97 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 1/ Cat 2 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 78 mph, but a NOAA research P-3 in the storm recently saw surface winds of 88 mph. I expect that the Air Force will be measuring Cat 2 surface winds before their mission is over tonight. Martinique radar shows that Earl has a large, 35 mile wide eye. Earl initially formed a smaller eye, but this collapsed almost immediately, and the larger diameter eyewall took over--kind of an instant eyewall replacement cycle right as the eye initially formed, something I don't recall ever seeing before. The latest eye report from 7:38 pm EDT showed that the temperature difference from outside the eye to inside the eye had increased from 3°C to 8°C in just 1 1/2 hours. This is a huge spike in temperature, and indicates that Earl may be on the verge of a period of more rapid deepening, which will likely carry it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Monday night. Recent satellite imagery shows the storm is lopsided, with much more intense thunderstorm activity on the southern side. This is due to 10 knots of wind shear from strong northerly upper level winds, courtesy of the outflow from Hurricane Danielle. This shear has steadily decreased today, and will continue to decrease tonight and Monday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 8:45 pm AST. Image credit: Meteo France.

Track forecast for Earl
Latest radar animations out of Martinique and St. Maarten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. Since the eye is so wide, it appears that portions of the southern eyewall will pass over these islands. The southern eyewall is where the NOAA aircraft just measured 88 mph winds, so Barbuda could well see sustained winds of 90 mph for a period of up to two hours, since the storm is moving near 14 mph and has a 35-mile wide eye. Since Earl will probably start intensifying rapidly in the next few hours, Anguilla, the last island in the path of Earl's southern eyewall, could see sustained winds near 95 - 105 mph between 7am - 9am AST. These are worst-case scenarios, and hopefully Earl's southern eyewall will barely miss these islands, bringing winds just below hurricane force.

The latest set of model runs (18Z, 2pm EDT) show Earl shooting the gap between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast over the next five days, and none of the models take Earl ashore over the U.S. North Carolina is now outside the cone of uncertainty. Recall that the average error in a 5-day track forecast is about 300 miles, so it is still too early to be confident Earl will miss the U.S. The most likely landfall location, were Earl to hit the U.S., would be Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A more likely landfall location appears to be Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, but it is too early to say which province is most at risk.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
St. Maarten radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
St. Maarten weather history for August 29
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (now back up!)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

I'll have a full update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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2321. wunderkidcayman
9:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Nice TS Fiona is finally named
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11111
2320. WXHam
9:05 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Earl Advisory 22 ... note track adjustment

000
WTNT42 KNHC 302047
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND
108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE
BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER...EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY
INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...
AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.3N 64.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 20.2N 66.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 21.7N 68.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.4N 70.1W 130 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.6N 74.7W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 45.5N 63.0W 70 KT...INLAND

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
2319. CaneHunter031472
7:22 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.


Hopefully it will be a trend and not a wobble, but as you said in anither post it means little to the East Coast unless it makes a definite turn to the North or NNW.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
2318. CaneHunter031472
7:22 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.


Hopefully it will be a trend and not a wobble, but as you said in anither post it means little to the East Coast unless it makes a definite turn to the North or NNW.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
2317. CaneHunter031472
7:19 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
There is no doubt. NHC is not perfect, but darn are they good at predicting tracks. This is not a sure science there are margins for error here, But Earl did as expected and I do not see a reason why it would change any the rest of the forecasted trac. I would keep an eye on it of course, but I believe we might get spared once again this time. I am also glad that this monster did not do a more direct hit on Puerto Rico and I sure hope no deaths are related to this thing.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
2316. reedzone
4:21 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Earl still recurves, not making a landfall until Canada on the 12Z GFS, very similar to the 00Z run.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2315. reedzone
4:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Looks like GFS wants Earl to make landfall in the Northeast.. I'm expecting other models to shift left some more.

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2314. reedzone
4:04 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
12Z GFS at 30 hours is a good bit south of the 06Z run, let alone that the 00Z and 12Z are more reliable then the 06Z and 18Z. Just skirting the Dominican Republic/Haiti with some feder band action.

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2313. reedzone
3:59 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting TruthCommish:


Lets hope its the begining of the expected turn to the north.


Looking at the water vapor, it seems this will get dangerously close to the Carolinas, then skirt the Northeast brining quite a scare for them. Even if it turns north early, it's good for PR, but doesn't mean much for the Northeast and Canada.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2312. TruthCommish
3:56 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.


Lets hope its the begining of the expected turn to the north.
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
2311. reedzone
3:50 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2310. Thundercloud01221991
3:48 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Peak SMRF on this pass 109 knts... is this already up to 110 knts???
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
2309. jeffs713
3:45 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
The size of the storm has a dual effect... it makes it simply more massive (and slower to intensify), but it also makes it steered by a deeper layer of winds. Many large storms have made hard turns... see:
Floyd
Rita
Katrina
Ike
Danielle

All 5 made turns in excess of 30 degrees in a short time.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5874
2308. Claudette1234
3:39 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 100 knots (~ 115.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 105 knots (~ 120.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 30 mm/hr (~ 1.18 in/hr)


central preassure 957mb 105kts 120,7 mph
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
2307. oracle28
3:34 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting TexasHoosier:


KK5, I totally agree. And it had better due it before Earl gets real big. Not sure what law of Physics defines it, but a large mass moving in one direction becomes much harder (slower) to change direction especially when you consider the interaction between the storm and the ocean/land acting as a drag on a turning movement of such a mass.


Interia, but it's based on mass and acceleration, so if Earl's forward movement slows, it would more than offset the size increase.

Trust the models, there is a tight consensus.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
2306. Chucktown
3:31 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting TexasHoosier:


KK5, I totally agree. And it had better due it before Earl gets real big. Not sure what law of Physics defines it, but a large mass moving in one direction becomes much harder (slower) to change direction especially when you consider the interaction between the storm and the ocean/land acting as a drag on a turning movement of such a mass.


That is a totally untrue comment. The storm does not know what is "underneath" it. It is complete fluid dynamics. Earl will respond to the path of least resistance regardless of size or as you said "mass".
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1719
2305. TexasHoosier
3:29 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Folks, whenever I try and quote someone before sending out a post, it invariably fails the first time to take. I always have to quote somebody twice in my post before it takes. Probably due to all activity going on in the blog; this only started a few days ago.
Member Since: December 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
2304. reedzone
3:29 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Landfall somewhere in the northeastern US determines on how fast Earl can make it to the coast before the trough does, the race is on!

Photobucket
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2303. TexasHoosier
3:26 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting katrinakat5:
listen folks when a storm grows in size its much harder for a sharp turn it can make a slow gradual turnthats what im talking about...dont expect earl to make a real sharp turn he has many factors he is fighting right now with the high getting stronger to the north..this is going tobe a real hairy day..earl has got to make the turn before he gets to 65west in order to get sou fla and the bahamas out the woods..


KK5, I totally agree. And it had better due it before Earl gets real big. Not sure what law of Physics defines it, but a large mass moving in one direction becomes much harder (slower) to change direction especially when you consider the interaction between the storm and the ocean/land acting as a drag on a turning movement of such a mass.
Member Since: December 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
2302. reedzone
3:23 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Count is now at..
5-3-2

We're not even in September yet lol...
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2301. serialteg
3:20 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting tatoprweather:
Good morning from Bayamon, PR. We are about 5 miles SE of San Juan. We have heavy rain, gusty winds. Things looking bad.


ponce es ponce. no wind, slight rain, testigos de jehova outside knocking doors, business as usual. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
2300. serialteg
3:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting SkulDouggery:
Did the blog hyperventilate or what? No new comments is not possible here.


no landfalling conus = "lethargic" forum
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
2299. Chucktown
3:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
last 3 hours:

1.2W vs only 0.4N

So still 3 to 1 ratio of west component vs north component for the past 6 hours.

2.5W 0.8N for the past 12 hours.

5.2W 1.5N for the past 24 hours.



Basicly it's still on almost the same identical heading as 24 hours ago.

The ratio has shifted slightly down from 4 to 1 to about 3 to 1, but this still trends well south of even the UPDATED forecast tracks.


Linear Extrapolation suggests a Florida Keys hurricane.

Steering at low and mid levels continues to show winds out of the north and east, which continues to undermine any chance to turn to the north.

The window for any significant northern turn is closing, because the storm should be passing the inflection point between the ridges presently, if it hasn't done so already.

If it does not turn very soon, it will inevitably end up on practically a Rita or Labor Day track, because nothing short of a miracle is just going to yank it north once it gets under the next ridge...

Does anyone have a more up-to-date steering chart? I think what I have is 3 hours old, but not good news for Florida...


Once again...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1719
2298. jeffs713
3:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting want2lrn:
I beleive the blog is eating the newbie's posts..... Here is a second request for a question i asked earlier. It may have been answered, but i did not see it. Someone, anyone (except Kat)lol PLEASE respond...

Quick question from a newbie. If Earl keeps slowing and 97L is able to catch up, generally what would happen? Would they compete for energy? Would the two become one and get stronger? I really don't know so i would appreciate an opinion. TIA

As TampaTom mentioned, they may begin a Fujiwara effect (rotating around a common center), but that depends on the relative strength of each storm. If Earl is a strong hurricane (like he is forecast to be), and 97L is a TS, 97L will likely be sheared apart by the outflow of Earl.

IF they do rotate around a common center, you will see 97L get shot to the right of its track, and Earl will get pushed to the left. Fujiwara effects don't come into play until the low centers are 900nm apart or less.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5874
2297. SkulDouggery
3:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Did the blog hyperventilate or what? No new comments is not possible here.
Member Since: January 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
2296. jeffs713
3:08 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting Claudette1234:


51% CAT 4 in 24h and 7% CAT 5

According to NHC last track will be CAT 4 in 12h, 90 miles NE of San Juan.

So basically the NHC is forecasting a beast of a storm. Joy. Just what we need. (sarcasm)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5874
2293. tatoprweather
3:02 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Good morning from Bayamon, PR. We are about 5 miles SE of San Juan. We have heavy rain, gusty winds. Things looking bad.
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
2292. Claudette1234
3:02 PM GMT on August 30, 2010


51% CAT 4 in 24h and 7% CAT 5

According to NHC last track will be CAT 4 in 12h, 90 miles NE of San Juan.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
2291. BradentonBrew
3:01 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


At worst, Earl is going to skim the Outer Banks and perhaps Nantucket...


That thought is well and good, but 6 days ago it was, "at worst, Earl is going to come within 100 miles, east of Bermuda"
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
2288. TexasHoosier
2:58 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
serialteq, what I have been watching the last couple of days are these High's and Low's coming from West to East across the United States as an indicator for potential movement of Earl.

When I saw the chart posted by Destin Jeff in message 2078, what immediately struck me was that the center of ridge (the high pressure system that is extending down to and impacting the movement of Earl) DID NOT MOVE A BIT to the East from yesterday; it is still over West Virginia.

Which means its real strong, or the low pressure system behind it is not well organized or pretty weak, or there are other forces at work (maybe some reserve influence on these fronts from the hurricanes (Danielle and Earl) or something else that I am not aware of.

But if I use the position and movement of these large systems across North America and the Eastern Atlantic as a critical element in the movement of Earl (and probably 97L/Fiona, and the wave behind it) then unless something amazing happens real soon, it looks like Earl is probably either going to track across Florida or even go further west into the eastern part of the GOM - that is a real no-no.

This whole setup is not looking good right now....

Destin Jeff, do you have an opinion on this ridge/trough issue?
Member Since: December 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
2287. TruthCommish
2:56 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting katrinakat5:
80 miles n os san juan the nhc have to not be playing with a full deck here...ear will pass less then 30 miles n of puerto rico if thhe doesnt wobble s any..


I swear you are worth the price of admission. I can just picture you wearing a ripped wife-beater and chain smoking marlboros.
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
2286. Thaale
2:51 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
2285. TruthCommish
2:51 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting hcubed:


And it was only yesterday that you said Earl would be a cat 2 passing to the SOUTH of PR.

What a difference a day makes...


There's no proof of that! ;-)
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
2283. Thaale
2:50 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH
SAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
EYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL
AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL
CYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 18.7N 63.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 65.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 70.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 73.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 71.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.5N 63.0W 75 KT...INLAND
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
2282. reedzone
2:50 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Henry Margusity -

"COMMENTARY FOR MONDAY...
As you can see below, I put my path down for Earl. Keep in mind, the path represents where the eye will go. The red area represents the places that will be impacted by rain and wind from Earl. Typically, hurricanes expand in size as they come north due to the interaction with the northern latitude troughs. Just look at the size of Danielle now on the satellite image this morning, and you will see what I mean. In regards to impact, coastal areas will have the worst conditions with rain, wind and wave action. I do think the hardest-hit areas will be Cape Cod and Atlantic Canada, but any deviation west of the track will bring hurricane conditions into Long Island and a good part of New England. Also, Earl will accelerate coming north, so the impact on any one area will be about six hours."
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2281. WxLogic
2:49 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr:



Good morning. Like to hear your assessment of Earl's potential impact on the East Coast of the U.S.


Morning...

Here's some info...

Steering:

In the picture below you'll see a Red Circle:


12Z

This region is currently an area of weak steering (COL). This will cause Earl to have some unpredictable behaviors... sometimes as erratic movements happens, it could bring it closer to the TROF above or closer to the Islands if it goes/tries to go around the DLM High over E CONUS.

Given the past 3 to 6 hr trends on steering I'm noticing that the E flank of the DLM High is getting eroded a bit by the deepening TROF N of Earl. Due to this I do believe earl will soon be feeling more the effects of this weakness as it strengthens further in the 30C+ degree waters and resume a quicker pace than what it currently has in 24hrs or so and start heading more NW as the DLM High on the E CONUS becomes oriented in a SW TO NE fashion.

Now if the DLM High does not take this SW to NE orientation and is able to push the TROF N of Earl further to the E then it would then force Earl to take a more Westerly track before forcing Earl to travel closer to the E CONUS coastline, but will currently doubt it will be making actual landfall for the time being given the current conditions, but things could change as a better steering pattern attempts to get established.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4929
2280. Chucktown
2:49 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1719
2279. portcharlotte
2:48 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Great Post!

At least you are addressing reality...not the fiction of a re-curve


Quoting moonlightcowboy:
VISIBLES LOOP


I'm tired of reading about Danielle's weakness lifting Earl northwards. Ain't happening. That ship has sailed, IMO. Earl is even pulling upper level convection southwards now from the expiring weakness - not the other way around. The models have not fully grasped the changing dynamics yet either, imo.

Basically, Earl is a steering neutral position. It cannot feel the departing weakness, or if it does, its nearly insignificant. Likewise, there is a swesterly flow to the storm's east, serving to aid a bit of influence westwards. And then, there's the southerly flow to the storm's north/northwest that has slowed Earl's forward motion. The slower motion, coupled with Earl's natural movement poleward is essentially the only steering mechanism in place at the moment.


Earl can only do two things:

1. Gradually move more westwards around the periphery of the high pressure above it; or,

2. Slow, stall and await the departing CONUS trough, creating enough weakness and allowing the natural coriolis effect to allow it to escape northwards.

Where and when that takes place will simply be an issue of timing. The longer it takes, the likelihood of an east coast landfall becomes more imminent.

And, then there is one other factor coming into play - 97L or Fiona. The distance between the two is closing as 97L is moving at a fast clip, while Earl is slowing. Certainly, there will be an effect if these two get close enough in proximity to each other. What will happen? I'm certainly not sure, but it will be spectacular to watch unfold and the dynamics will then likely change considerably.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
2277. serialteg
2:48 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting katrinakat5:
80 miles n os san juan the nhc have to not be playing with a full deck here...ear will pass less then 30 miles n of puerto rico if thhe doesnt wobble s any..


earlier mornin i read 64% chance of hurricane winds for pr and 98% chance (at least for the east-northeasternmost)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
2276. Thaale
2:47 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
2275. Bordonaro
2:47 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
..EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2274. serialteg
2:47 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Quoting WarEagle8:
Fajardo, Puerto Rico webcam link:

Link


sadly its stuck but in a pretty familiar and ominous picture...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
2273. shawn26
2:47 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
I have been staring at the loops for an hour now straight, it sure looks like Earl is moving almost due west now.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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