Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR2:


So why did the NHC just say 85mph?
I'm confused... again XD LOL


flight level winds
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2782. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 60.3W AT 30/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 85 NM E OF BARBUDA AND ABOUT 160 NM E OF ST. MARTIN MOVING
WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. EARL
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WNW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 24N58W. AS EARL MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N58W TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W...A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EASTERN AND 180 NM
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 56W-65W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 08N-20N ALONG 38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
1006 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N38W AND REMAINS
THE FOCUS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT ENCOMPASSES THE
AREA BOUNDED FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 33W-45W. AN EARLIER MORNING
ASCAT PASS DEPICTED NE WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE LOW FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ALTHOUGH
DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2781. JLPR2
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Time: 23:45:00Z
Coordinates: 17.9833N 60.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.0 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,997 meters (~ 9,833 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 987.3 mb (~ 29.15 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 146%uFFFD at 86 knots (From the SE/SSE at ~ 98.9 mph)
Air Temp: 9.7%uFFFDC (~ 49.5%uFFFDF)
Dew Pt: 8.2%uFFFDC (~ 46.8%uFFFDF)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 88 knots (~ 101.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


So why did the NHC just say 85mph?

Ah, wait! Flight level winds, duhh! XD
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Quoting Drakoen:
They have it further south than what the radar shows.


I was wondering because its pretty evident on radar where the COC is located.
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2779. bwi
Reading of 93knots flight level wind at
23:44:00Z 17.933N 60.033W
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
2778. srada
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
ON MONDAY.


Im not trying to nickpic the NHC because they do a great job, but what is up using the word "so"..they said that Earl win turn in the next day or "so" in the previous advisory..they sound like hey we know its going to turn but what day, we are not sure
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Quoting RadarRich:
Just an observation on the wobble effect.
Remember Weeble's Wobble but they won't fall down. I had Weeble's as a kid, and I do recall they would wobble, and shimmey, and shake, but they always stayed straight up in the end.
Earl will wobble, a lot, and shimmey, etc,
BUT! He will eventually stay straight up, and follow the forcast points from the NHC when all is said and done. He may vary one point or two in Lat/Longitude throughout his trek. Technology is not Mother Nature, who can play some tricks on us. We have so many sophisticated models, and weather forcasters within our means,(technology). Hopefully this expertise is right and Earl follows the game plan, while doing the Weeble's wobble scenario.
The NHC is pretty darn good these days with their forcast tracks, but, we always need to be wary of one of those Weeble's that wobbles just a little too far. stay safe, Rich


Yeah, because the NHC track is gospel and storms never veer away once the "NHC has pretty much nailed the track" to quote Ike. Yep, I have never seen a storm take an unexpected turn once the experts told me exactly where it was going to go. They are the experts, you know, they are without fault.
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2775. Drakoen
They have it further south than what the radar shows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 23:45:00Z
Coordinates: 17.9833N 60.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.0 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,997 meters (~ 9,833 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 987.3 mb (~ 29.15 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 146 at 86 knots (From the SE/SSE at ~ 98.9 mph)
Air Temp: 9.7C (~ 49.5F)
Dew Pt: 8.2C (~ 46.8F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 88 knots (~ 101.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
From an article from Hurricane city on the Hebert Box

These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.

LINK


Thanks, Storm. Very good explanation!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
2770. Vero1
I am more concerned when a storm is in the "Cantore Box" because the storm will make landfall with 40 miles camera right or left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 23:45:30Z
Coordinates: 18.0N 59.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,012 meters (~ 9,882 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 987.5 mb (~ 29.16 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 148° at 82 knots (From the SSE at ~ 94.3 mph)
Air Temp: 10.2°C (~ 50.4°F)
Dew Pt: 7.9°C (~ 46.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 83 knots (~ 95.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2767. bwi
If I'm reading the HH report correctly, it has dropped from 973 to 968.5 in just over an hour and a half. Gone from 17,36 degrees north to 17,40 degrees north:

23:37:30Z 17.667N 60.333W 968.5 mb

NHC vortex message was
A. 29/2203Z
B. 17 DEG 36 MIN N
59 DEG 57 MIN W
H. 973 MB
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I think now we can see why the NHC did not upgrade 97L

take a look at it, that certainly is not a TD


But the longer it stays weak the less of a likelihood of re-curvature.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
Ok, correct me if I'm wrong, but the Hebert Box refers to majors that have hit S Fla. So 90% (or whatever the percentage is) of majors that have hit S Fla passed through the box. NOT 90% of majors that have passed thru the box have hit S Fla.

If that's correct, then the box means nothing in this scenario.


This is Box #1. In this box, it doesn't matter if it's a Tropical Storm or a Category 5 when it goes through, as long as it's a major.
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HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL HEADING FOR NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES




800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
ON MONDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2763. marmark
Quoting KanKunKid:


Florida is 100% safe right now and will remain so until a hurricane hits it. Then there will be a lot MORE grouchy people without air conditioning complaining that "somebody ought to do something!"
Isn't that true anywhere? I'm 100% safe from a heart attack...until I have one. Try going without power in 90 degree weather for 18 days...I be you would complain too. LOL
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2760. srada
I hope Dr. Masters update again this evening..Im interested to hear his take on Earl
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2759. IKE
Moved .1N and .8W in 3 hours.
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2758. Zeec94
Evening Storm. Totally missed your post. I feel like an idiot now. Haha. Guess that's what I get for working all day.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 292352
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON HURRICANE EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF BARBUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2755. jeebsa
Good Evening Storm
How was you birthday?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
93 knot flight level wind found.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 292352
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL HEADING FOR NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

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8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 17.7°N 60.3°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 292352
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL HEADING FOR NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..EARL HEADING FOR NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting BobinTampa:
Ok, correct me if I'm wrong, but the Hebert Box refers to majors that have hit S Fla. So 90% (or whatever the percentage is) of majors that have hit S Fla passed through the box. NOT 90% of majors that have passed thru the box have hit S Fla.

If that's correct, then the box means nothing in this scenario.


you are exactly correct
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Ok, correct me if I'm wrong, but the Hebert Box refers to majors that have hit S Fla. So 90% (or whatever the percentage is) of majors that have hit S Fla passed through the box. NOT 90% of majors that have passed thru the box have hit S Fla.

If that's correct, then the box means nothing in this scenario.
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Quoting tropicaltank:
24 hours imho.


I disagree. I think it could start turning as far as 18 or 19 North and 68 or 69 West and still miss Florida.
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty interesting that it is that south.


It takes a lurch Southward at the very end Miami, and not a small one. Link
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they have not even updateed the two
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I mean here, Im going nuts trying to figure out what is gonna turn Earl
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Evening Storm and Drak,

Good to see you both here... I find I am having to wade through too much DOOMcasting and uninformed speculation.
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2739. bird72
Quoting PcolaDan:
48 hours of Earl. Pretty easy to see basic direction.


The last movement was due west.
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2738. bwt1982
Quoting btwntx08:

the one that got removed haha


LOL! Its ok, I could have had many of yours removed on here but unlike you I can handle people's opinions.That and I think people should see how foolish you are. If you cant handle my opinions on what I think a hurricane will do, man up and talk to me directly instead of running to a moderator! It is a BLOG afterall!!! LOL! I would hate to see how you act in real life!!! LMAO!
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Quoting JupiterFL:


It was named after his wife.


Oh my, that is just wrong. LOL
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2736. Gearsts
Quoting bwi:
sorry if this is double post

HH 968.5mb at 17.66 60.33w
thats new?
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Storm, please explain how Earl is supposed to get though this before affecting the islands. tia
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.