Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting troy1993:
Hey guys do you think it is possible that Earl could take a track similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985?


Possibly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Significant rainbands approaching Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda at 3PM AST. It'll get worse for the islands in the Northern corner later.
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Quoting wjdow:


you don't buy it? do you know something that they don't?


Look at this loop and put the Trop Pts on. They have it headed WNW immediately, its headed South of west/W...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Hey guys do you think it is possible that Earl could take a track similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985?
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Quoting DTwxrisk:


more 100%


The "Brick wall" should prevent him from passing the 75W line.
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Quoting leo305:


Bonnie made landfall in SFL


I think he meant a TS that did something of significance to Florida. Bonnie did not do much.
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Looks like 97L may become a very large storm. The circulation appears huge on visible satellite.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Relix:
Puerto Rico will be under Hurricane Watch at 11AM and track will shift a bit left and south. Around 30 miles closer now to PR. Or so I was just old by someone in the NWS offices here in SJ =)
You mean hurricane warning at 11:00 am , since we've been under hurricane watch since last night /
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Earl is slowly slowing down indicating that a more WNW track is possible soon. The cone is perfect as is. The thing is, if it were to strengthen gradually this cone would not be appropriate. However due to the chances of moderate to rapid strengthening the cone in the near terms is appropriate as stronger storms tend to more more poleward.
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Im sorry but I thought the storm was supposed to turn TODAY per the advisory issued yesterday, not the next day or so?

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
South Florida Hasnt Got a Hurricane Since 2005..

And Not a Decent TS since Fay in 2008.


Bonnie made landfall in SFL
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Quoting caneswatch:


Seems like they start the northward component immediately. I don't buy it. If this doesn't move north by tonight or tomorrow morning, expect major changes in the track, and I mean major.


you don't buy it? do you know something that they don't?
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Looks like earls to far south to feel danielles weakness,instead looks like she's"slingshot"n. Him westward quickly,imo he's going over PR
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Boston could be flooded NYC if this spends 12 more hours going West. Worst case is 12 more hours heading West then making a bend and hitting NC and New England
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Quoting katrinakat5:
SAMY YOU BETTER PAY ATTENTION IM TELLING YOU MIAMI IS NO WHERE SAFE FROM THIS STORM AND YOU ABOUT TO FIND THAT OUT THE HARD WAY MY FRIEND..


(Quoting Taz)ok
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New cone has a major hurricane just north of Puerto Rico, any slight deviation southward and it could get real, real ugly for them.

Reminds me of Georges of 1998,and remember this list that we're using this year is notorious for having dangerous storms retired.as people in puerto rico are saying...no megusta Earl.
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Lookout for RI from tonight to Tuesday.
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thanks Dr. Masters

dont like the reference to NC there..a wait and see scenario..lets hope we have some great timing and take this storm out to sea
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Quoting katrinakat5:
SAMY YOU BETTER PAY ATTENTION IM TELLING YOU MIAMI IS NO WHERE SAFE FROM THIS STORM AND YOU ABOUT TO FIND THAT OUT THE HARD WAY MY FRIEND..


caps lock off, por favor
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 291457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

EARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A
DEVELOPING CDO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF
64 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE
EARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS
SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT
EARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL
AND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

PERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS
NOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.2N 58.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.6N 60.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.3W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 69.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 37.0N 71.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 35.5°N 55.5°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NE at 26 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb

11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 17.2°N 58.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New cone has a major hurricane just north of Puerto Rico, any slight deviation southward and it could get real, real ugly for them.



Seems like they start the northward component immediately. I don't buy it. If this doesn't move north by tonight or tomorrow morning, expect major changes in the track, and I mean major.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Didya notice NYC is in the cone too?
Yes, but you guys are of the up-most importance to me right now, after it passes north of the Caribbean islands and the eastern Bahamas, then I'll look out for the United States and Bermuda.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
54. 7544
looks like earl dosent want to go north and still goin west but track goes east go figure

and wow to major if so fiona for the whole state of fla needs to watch that one

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Didya notice NYC is in the cone too?


thats what i was telling some friends of mine yesterday. they live in nyc and are riding earl out here in pr. so i told them hey, you'll get a double whammy! lol
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. EARL IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Miami is 100% Safe From this Storm, Being a South Florida Resident im worried about Fiona... Frances...Fay... The F Storm always hates Florida...


I would say Florida is 85% safe from Earl. IMO
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New cone has a major hurricane just north of Puerto Rico, any slight deviation southward and it could get real, real ugly for them.



sadly i wasted all my alcohol yesterday.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New cone has a major hurricane just north of Puerto Rico, any slight deviation southward and it could get real, real ugly for them.


Didya notice NYC is in the cone too?
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Yeah, scary for us up north...

Quoting CybrTeddy:

105 knot Category 3 getting VERY close to New England.

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Hello again! I used to post a bunch, but I lurk now.

I was wondering if any of you had those cyclone tracking maps for the area around Australia... the website with them went down. :( They're by some guy named C.B. Smith. Thanks!
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PRESS CONFERENCE IS AT 11AM
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105 knot Category 3 getting VERY close to New England.

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
New Advisory is up, PR is under a TS warning and a Hurricane Watch.


This ;) I got all confused lol.
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New Advisory is up, PR is under a TS warning and a Hurricane Watch.
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Miami and SJ are in communication to approve the Hurricane Warning. It has been I think.

PR BLOGGERS! Press conference soon. Channel 6 and 11 have confirmed airing it. Not sure if its 11 or 12. Check the channels.
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I was still on the last blog when I posted this and the new one was out, so I am posting again:

There was a discussion last night at about 1am, between a few people as to what constitutes a 'fish storm'. Opinions varied from storm in which the coc doesn't hit land (i.e you could get hurricane strength winds, but still have a fish storm) at one extreme to a storm which doesn't produce any impact on land at the other. Is there an agreed definition? I would have thought it was a storm that didn't produce ts force winds over land, but I don't know the real answer.
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38. JRRP
the motion is due west
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5741
New cone has a major hurricane just north of Puerto Rico, any slight deviation southward and it could get real, real ugly for them.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
Quoting ElLexo:


PR is already on hurricane watch. Maybe mean hurricane warning?


why did you quote that lol? let's see the 11am and learn.
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Just want to remember Katrina 5 yrs ago : 200,000 homes destroyed, over 1,800 dead and society collapsed. What we learned?? I want my FEMA $$ Was it flood or hurricane damage(insurance companies)?? and we had blue roof heavens all over creation!! 97L is already a T.S. pressure wise and may be named in short order. Rita was a bad storm and the forgotten one in my book***
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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