Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting seflagamma:
Now back to Earl, sorry for the disruption...


So Earl is still plowing West and no northwest motion yet?

Going to be a long night for the Islands.


The current heading appears to be 280 degrees, so a tad north of due west but per the latest info on Recon Earl's wobbling slightly to the SW.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
This storm is so nerve-raking it could easily smash into New England as a MH were overdue for a New England hurricane
The way the pattern is setting up this week, New England may actually take a good hit from this hurricane. I never wishcast or doomcast. This is only my opinion. Earl is much further south than the 1938 storm. But there tracks could be similar.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The central pressure of Earl dropped 3mb in a period of 1 hour and 20 minutes. Earl could very well be undergoing rapid intensification at the present time.


Miami, does this further south and west movement by Earl affect the path Pre-Fiona in any way?
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
its not at puerto rico's latitude yet, and it's moving W/WSW

the forecast is that it should begin to turn WNW by the NHC, and models, so puerto rico is looking like a hit, but if it continues to dip southward.. DR may change things DRAMATICALLY.

Not saying it's going to do that, but it's possible, if it hits the DR the storm would weaken greatly
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Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1001mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 47 knots (54 mph)
990mb 130° (from the SE) 68 knots (78 mph)
973mb 135° (from the SE) 74 knots (85 mph)
937mb 140° (from the SE) 74 knots (85 mph)
901mb 145° (from the SE) 64 knots (74 mph)
855mb 150° (from the SSE) 67 knots (77 mph)
843mb 155° (from the SSE) 65 knots (75 mph)

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SOMETHING IS SPINING AT 18 WEST AND 11 NORTH..
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I have several friends in Boston and in Washington DC and I wonder if I should tell them to start making preliminary plans to get out. Washington would get some kind of impact if Earl takes the NC route, but I am far more concerned about the possibility of a Category 3 hitting NE. It's bad enough on the Gulf Coast, but they don't get them frequently like we do.
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I am supposed to be going to OBX starting Sept. 4th for a much needed vacation. What can anyone tell me about Earl and what might become Fiona? I am glad I have the insurance on my trip but would still like to be able to go. Any thoughts?
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Now back to Earl, sorry for the disruption...


So Earl is still plowing West and no northwest motion yet?

Going to be a long night for the Islands.
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The central pressure of Earl dropped 3mb in a period of 1 hour and 20 minutes. Earl could very well be undergoing rapid intensification at the present time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Current heading appears to be around 280 degrees with a small jog to the south. Either way that is not good for the Antillies. I also wouldn't be surprised if the center were a touch farther south than was thought at the 11 a.m. advisory.
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Quoting MrstormX:


The west side of the CoC is weaker if I recall to, or was it the strong side...idk


On a west moving storm, the south side should be weakest. But that can vary based on a particular storm's environment.
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GFS 12z @ 30hrs....



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Quoting DTwxrisk:
that anyone would use the NAM to make any sot of hurricane forecast...much less at 84 hrs... is hard to figure





C'mon, DT. A little context please. I was simply showing for my own benefit and others' how and why Fujiwhara works in general and why as Jeff Masters says it's so hard to predict exactly. I never said or implied that I placed any reliance whatsoever in the NAM's exact positions. It was for illustrative purposes, and I used the NAM simply because of the wind arrows and its being the only 12Z model already available.
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You guys will have to summarize that press conference for me, sounds busted on my CPU.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
319. NJ2S
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Any wobbles, from the centerline, as a cane nears a populated area makes all the difference between two points of several hundred miles at times.....Why everyone in the cone needs to be prepared and pay close attention as the storm appraches.


agree
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What was it being said a few days ago about if it is south of 20N at 60W ?
If it stays south of 20N and west of 60W the chances of a landfall in the United States increase, in this case a landfall in the Carolina's.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Any wobbles, from the centerline, as a cane nears a populated area makes all the difference between two points of several hundred miles at times.....Why everyone in the cone needs to be prepared and pay close attention as the storm approaches.
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imo puerto rico needs to issue hurricane warnings for the island by 12 noon...this storm is continuing to expand out and grow and intensify..this is a serious situation for puerto rico...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 982.1mb, still heading a bit south of due west.

153930 1716N 05825W 8433 01345 9821 217 184 160013 015 031 002 03
not good at all looks like a direct hit for the islands and puerto rico
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 982.1mb, still heading a bit south of due west.

153930 1716N 05825W 8433 01345 9821 217 184 160013 015 031 002 03


The west side of the CoC is weaker if I recall to, or was it the strong side...idk
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Quoting Walnut:


HH at the center yet?


according to that yea

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, he will still feel the weakness, however, if he continues the current motion, if and when he does begin the northward component, it'll be too late and will allow for something like a direct hit to Puerto Rico. Currently, I'm in agreement with southern portion of the NHC track, meaning no direct hit on Puerto Rico, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.
What was it being said a few days ago about if it is south of 20N at 60W ?
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Quoting seflagamma:


You know what, I think there use to be a girl on here with a similar handle and I had a hard time trying to figure it out!

Oh well, I was called a "dude" yesterday...
Let me go see the Birthday list... sorry about any mistake..

and Happy Belated Birthday! LOL




Then who is this on the Birthday List on
BarnDweller's blog:



OGal .................................... August 9
DocNDSwamp .............................. August 12
StormJunkie ............................. August 12
baxtheweatherman ........................ August 15
seflagamma .............................. August 19
WxWyz ................................... August 20
towlady ................................. August 21
sbKaren ................................. August 24
StormW .................................. August 27
CybrTeddy ............................... August 29
Idoccu .................................. August 29
whiterabbit ............................. August 31



LOL, Oh well...
sometimes it is hard to tell when the person does not have a recent photo for their avatar.

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it appears to me that the islands will get a direct hit and puerto rico appears more and more likely if Earl does not commence a WNW motion very very soon , one area i am also concerned about is the SE Bahamas and the eastern tip of the dominican republic , that is if it continues to remain on the westward track and remain south of the models.
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This is becoming a serious situation real quick for the islanders. Hope everyone down there starts their preparations right now! Now for the forecast I would think if Earl interacts with the islands this could slightly weaken him or keep him at bay for a little more time which would give a more westerly movement than what NHC shows. I think the east coast is really becoming a threat down road later this week.
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Quoting Walnut:


HH at the center yet?
Yes, that's the center.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
307. Gorty
Does anyone know how bad if the fujiwawa (yeah I cant spell it) will be? Could they merge into one super hurricane? Or kill each other?
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it is More than a little risky to use the NAM to make any sot of hurricane forecast.. much less at 84 hrs... is hard to figure



Quoting Thaale:


Looking at the 84 12Z NAM, I can see how Fiona would be close enough to Earl to be tugged toward the NNW by him. But the wind arrows show how sensitive that Fujiwhara interaction would be to the proximity of the storms, and even a couple hundred miles more distance looks like it would essentially take Fiona outside of earl's significant direct influence.

No wonder these interactions are hard to predict exactly. Too many variables which are too sensitive to minor perturbation.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True. Compact systems tend to spin up quicker because of the ice-skater effect (you know, a spread out ice-skater rotates slower than a compact ice-skater). In other words, the opposite of what we saw with Alex.


Awesome analogy, if you ever become a professional forecaster make sure to use that phrase in your weather discussions.
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Miami, any idea where to access the other information that the other planes are finding?
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303. NJ2S
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This storm is so nerve-raking it could easily smash into New England as a MH were overdue for a New England hurricane


just a slight shift left will bring it ominously close to NYC then if it recurves NE will get the brunt....not lookin good....im routing for this trough to surprise us and be strong and take earl safely between NC and bermuda!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 982.1mb, still heading a bit south of due west.

153930 1716N 05825W 8433 01345 9821 +217 +184 160013 015 031 002 03


HH at the center yet?
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80/85 mph IMO:

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Pressure down to 982.1mb, still heading a bit south of due west.

153930 1716N 05825W 8433 01345 9821 217 184 160013 015 031 002 03
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
299. 7544
pr might see a cat 2 at their back door

could the bahams be next then next
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Quoting leo305:


it's south of that model , the icon there was the advisory position
so once again the models are further north ,
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come on earl show me your eye, dont be shame
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Hurricane Earl moving just a tad south of due west imo, not good news!


And Real real fast.......
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295. 7544
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, you have to look between vortex messages and figure out the motion, currently it is moving just south of due west between the last 2 vortex messages, hopefully it doesn't continue in this one.


ok kat was right and thers the sw dip i was posting a few pages back hmmmmmmm

things are coming into play now
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Quoting Jeff Masters:
It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.


Looking at the 84 12Z NAM, I can see how Fiona would be close enough to Earl to be tugged toward the NNW by him. But the wind arrows show how sensitive that Fujiwhara interaction would be to the proximity of the storms, and even a couple hundred miles more distance looks like it would essentially take Fiona outside of earl's significant direct influence.

No wonder these interactions are hard to predict exactly. Too many variables which are too sensitive to minor perturbation.

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Hurricane Earl moving just a tad south of due west imo, not good news!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Not good for me.


Nope.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
so far it is following the ngfdl model


it's south of that model , the icon there was the advisory position
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Quoting barotropic:


Yes you may want to be careful of that!!! LOL... Im in S Florida also, lighthouse point.......



Recognize my avitar :) ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Approaching 60W and south of 20N
ICK. Do people think that Good Ole Earl may take a slight wobble to the south ?
18º 15´ North
63º 10´ West Are where my friends are on Anguilla, they are freaking
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If it continues in this direction do you think it will be far enough away from the weakness for it to affect it and prevent the turn north ?
No, he will still feel the weakness, however, if he continues the current motion, if and when he does begin the northward component, it'll be too late and will allow for something like a direct hit to Puerto Rico. Currently, I'm in agreement with southern portion of the NHC track, meaning no direct hit on Puerto Rico, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting seflagamma:


You know what, I think there use to be a girl on here with a similar handle and I had a hard time trying to figure it out!

Oh well, I was called a "dude" yesterday...
Let me go see the Birthday list... sorry about any mistake..

and Happy Belated Birthday! LOL


I think a lot of people think I'm a girl.
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Quoting Kristina40:


From what I've encountered here, many Floridians believe that as well.
Too bad it isn't. History would be much different.
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Gamma, Mail
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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