Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stillwaiting:
Im getting a feeling earls gonna end up taking a bonnie like track 48-120hrs


This track?
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Quoting StormJunkie:
wunderkid...Not trusting MIMIC is one thing (even though when it is current it is one of the best ways to get a center fix)...But your now saying the Hurricane Hunters don't know what there doing...That's just absurd.
He always suggests it is heading towards the Cayman islands, so even if hard-core proof suggests otherwise, he doesn't agree with it and says it's moving towards the SW and into the western Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting Drakoen:


I've been doing good. Haven't had the chance to blog much this past week but that may change this coming week when I get my laptop.


thats awesome, thats the only way ive been able to blog from school here... but if a mandatory evacuation is order the school has to shut down so im watchin very closely..
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Has the ecmwf been right once this season?

There's always a first time! yeah, I place almost zero reliance on the CMC (which just showed a big jump south for Fiona on the 12Z run), and more on the GFS than the Euro. That having been said, I believe I'm correct in stating that last year the GFS was the best and the Euro the second best at predicting track of developed systems? But where the GFS seems to own most of the other models is in predicting cyclonic development to begin with.

I'll place a lot more reliance in the Euro if two-three days from now it's still steering an actual TS Fiona in the same direction it shows now for 97L.
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How long can the HH stay in the air at one time?
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676. Relix
I need a blog break then. Will be off until 5PM!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Ahh look at that!
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Hello all. I asked a couple of questions back a couple days that weren't answered, most likely because they were dumb questions. Had no reason to post in the years I've been lurking because all my questions were already being asked and answered, but I just wanted to try to take part occasionally in the discussion. So I tentatively try.

Five minutes ago TWC Carl Parker said that Earl is running out of space to turn north, and that a U.S. landfall cannot be ruled out. There seems to be space to me as I remember Elena doing a 180. There's a space, and a weakness in the ridge; what is keeping it at 280 degrees, simple inertia?
btw I'm not a youngster, I am 56, my work is as a sound engineer, but i have been weather-addicted every day of my life. Hopefully this was a decent question, and thanks for any replies.
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Looks like Recon is heading back towards the circulation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
wunderkid...Not trusting MIMIC is one thing (even though when it is current it is one of the best ways to get a center fix)...But your now saying the Hurricane Hunters don't know what there doing...That's just absurd.
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I know this was posted earlier...
(a bummer for sure)

FTMJUA
Message Date: Aug 28 2010 23:56:14

THE FAA/NWS SAN JUAN (TJUA) WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO A FAILED ENCODER IN THE ELEVATION UNIT OF THE RDA.


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Post 597...LMAO! you guys are hysterical.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


DRAK! how you been man hows school goin??


I've been doing good. Haven't had the chance to blog much this past week but that may change this coming week when I get my laptop.
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665. Vero1
Quoting oakland:


I don't know about StormW but Levi is on his way to Fairbanks, AK to start college.


StormW was on earliar and did his synopsis.
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Could be making it's predicted turn wnw now. Check it out on visible satellite, wide Atlantic view.
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Im getting a feeling earls gonna end up taking a bonnie like track 48-120hrs
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Quoting msphar:
Should skirt by most of the islands. this talk of a direct PR hit is ridiculous. Look at the tracking above or at the satellites images

Why is everyone else's opinions ridiculous and yours set in stone?? Earl has been treckin west for a while now....and still continues to do so...so a direct hit to PR in NOT out of the question...Is it the likely scenario?? Not at the moment...but I believe everyone in the Carribean should probably keep a good eye on this one....
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I dont trust or like using the MIMIC product to find the direct point of the COC and I still think the the central point of the COC is ti the SW of the offical location and the HH's plot
if it was going into the western Caribbean you would be trusting it as then you would not have to wish it your way...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting betapaul:
Where is StormW or Levi when you need em?...ha


I don't know about StormW but Levi is on his way to Fairbanks, AK to start college.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Steadily organizing. The eye coming into view on radar.




DRAK! how you been man hows school goin??
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Quoting srada:
From the NWS in Wilmington, NC

EARL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR
COAST ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES ROUGHLY 300-400 MILES TO THE EAST. IT
WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT DOES SO AND ITS TRACK WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER THAN DANIELLE WAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD NOT IMPLY TOO MUCH OF A WIND IMPACT
ON THE WATERS BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY NOT ONLY REGARDING
THE TRACK BUT ALSO THE EVENTUAL SIZE OF THE STORM, BOTH OF WHICH
WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH OF THE WATERS END UP IN THE STORMS WIND
ENVELOPE.



This is known as being optimistic.
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Quoting Vero1:
StormJunkie ~~ look at this model Run:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/index.php?loop&large&basin=nh2&parm=win d#contents





Saw that this morning when it was posted. Have never seen it before so I'm not really sure what it's showing...That said, if it is trying to say Earl is going to split into two storms then it's off it's rocker. That won't happen.
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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
Afternoon all.

All I can say about the latest projected path for Earl is... wow.

NYC is in the cone of uncertainty at 5 days - when Earl is a Cat 3.

Wow...

Wow, can you even imagine a major hitting NYC. Subway and sub-city being flooded. Water, sewer and electrical systems down for extended period of time. Causing general mayhem, along with the main economic hub of the world shut down. This all comes for a tv program called, "What If". So purely conjecture, but makes sense.
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Steadily organizing. The eye coming into view on radar.


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Quoting betapaul:
Where is StormW or Levi when you need em?...ha

I asked that a little while ago?
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Not much traffic in the stores this morning in PR. Some shoppers were picking up extra water, etc, but no major rush on food supplies. Most people are waiting on direction from the local government, not realizing that time is running short. Earl either way will pass to close to Puerto Rico for comfort and residents should be taking the necessary measures to protect themselves should Earl deviate left of the current track which it has been doing for the past 48 hours. Also, the East coast High moving towards Bermuda does look stronger than predicted and I wonder if the models are initializing this feature correctly. Earl will not get much above 20N over the next 24-36 hrs.
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I think 97L is on the verge of becoming the longest live red circle before a TD upgrade. jajajaja =)
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The center is somewhere East of Barbuda and is moving WNW from there. The islands will feel its passing but not get a direct hit. A close call only, some rain some wind but not not a direct hit.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
I'm working on some analysis on Hurricane Earl and the overall environment surrounding the system. In addition, I'm gonna be taking a closer look at Invest 97L later this afternoon. I'll have a blog update out after the 5PM EST advisory comes out from the NHC.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 21 PERCENT.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 66
PERCENT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SPREAD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY NOON AST
MONDAY. WHILE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING BANDS OF SHOWERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS..
.ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO.

...INLAND FLOODING...
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...REACHING MAINLAND PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PUERTO RICO OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS
HURRICANE EARL PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

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Quoting tropicfreak:


Judging by its movement, the storm looks to be taking the western route of the cone.


Sounds reasonable.. it should start moving a bit more north instead of just all west but it seems a little slow to make that move right now.
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642. Vero1
StormJunkie ~~ look at this model Run:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/index.php?loop&large&basin=nh2&parm=wind#contents



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641. unf97
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
If earl were to follow the NHCs current track, would Fiona still be able to sneak in to the North or will the ridge build back stronger by that time?

Thanks


Well, that is the BIG, BIG question about 97L/future Fiona. We can't answer this for certain for at least several days. Most models recurve it just before or right at 70 degrees longitude, except for the ECMWF, which takes it west threatening the FL or the SE CONUS.

This is something we just have to monitor and see how the upper air pattern evolves. One thing I think is certain is that 97L has a very good chance to pose another significant threat to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by the latter part of this week as it continues westward.
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Also good to see that Earl appears to be getting on that wnw track just as forecast by all the models. If it keeps up, he should have no problem getting N of the Islands. Still some weather for the northern most islands, but I think a direct hit is remote at this point.
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Yea at least it is starting to come back down to earth, tonight's run may resemble the Euro... Especially if Earl re curves before 50W


he's been past 50W.. do you mean 60W?
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The individual images that are used as input into this product sometimes contain bad data in the form of missing scanlines or anamalously high or low values that often stretch in an arc across the image. When these areas are incorporated into the MIMIC product they form artifacts that fade in and out, and appear to move with the storm center. However, they have no physical meaning and hopefully they will not obstruct your interpretation of the imagery.

the setbacks of watching MIMIC
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Earl still seems to be staying south I think the Islands will be in a little deeper then a brush by hurricane
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Quoting Thaale:


How about Martin, or St. Lucie? LOL, trying to predict the exact county of landfall 10 days out is a crapshoot.
Has the ecmwf been right once this season?
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Yea at least it is starting to come back down to earth, tonight's run may resemble the Euro... Especially if Earl re curves before 50W
Exactly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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