Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting YourCommonSense:
its moving NW now.... PR is in the clear!!!


haha, i dont see any NW movement... hahaha
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I suspect the winds should respond soon.. CAT 2 by tonight is probable
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
I think that this is ture,but if Earl forms a clear,smooth eye it will very likely go under rapid intensification.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
As you can see by looking now, you can clearly see why 97L was not upgraded

convection is pretty much all gone



next time be for you say all gone plzs look at thing a little more befor posting


this is not all gone too me

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting Hurricanes101:
As you can see by looking now, you can clearly see why 97L was not upgraded

convection is pretty much all gone


That thing has been taking forever to develop.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hold your horses miami remember the 03 at the end means data contaminated. So not a true reading


Not all the pressure readings where contaminated.
979.9 mb
(~ 28.94 inHg)
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CoC is clearly moving WNW with that new recon data.
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776. DEKRE

1) The prevailing west winds steering earl


Why would a west wind push Earl to the west?
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Quoting Kristina40:


I sure hope so but it will still be the closest buoy to the storm and give a good idea of how powerful the winds are on the outer bands.


true...but you'll also be able to use the wunder map on here and get readings from a few stations in the northern islands as well...
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Alright bro. For a met you sure are obnoxious. Do you consider youself a professional? Why don't we take a vote on who should stop posting.


Perhaps
Quoting JupiterFL:


Alright bro. For a met you sure are obnoxious. Do you consider youself a professional? Why don't we take a vote on who should stop posting.


Perhaps a we should have a vote to decide if DT should be kicked off the island :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



man this thing is going under a RI
Possibly. At 10:10a.m EDT the minimum central pressure was 985mb. Now the latest minimum central pressure is 978mb. The pressure went down 7mb over a 3 hour span. The satellite appearance has also improved greatly. Earl could very well be undergoing rapid intensification.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting tropicfreak:


Hey watch, I'm sure keeping a close eye on this thing in case the track shifts west enough to make landfall on the east coast. If evacuations are put into place for the Norfolk/VA Beach/Chesapeake area, i can't imagine what I-64 would be like. Traffic on 64 is bad enough on the weekends, when folks are heading to the beach, now evacuations?


I live about 45 miles north of I-64, in Indiana of course :p
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Quoting Claudette1234:


Yes each pass of the plane down 3 or 4 mb thats no good. Earl will be stronger and stronger. Tomorrow CAT2 for sure.


Maybe stronger than that.
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Quoting Claudette1234:


Yes each pass of the plane down 3 or 4 mb thats no good. Earl will be stronger and stronger. Tomorrow CAT2 for sure.



it may hit cat 2 today or sooner may be even cat 3
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
As you can see by looking now, you can clearly see why 97L was not upgraded

convection is pretty much all gone
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978 mb found by recon. That's a 7 mb drop since 11 am.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 978.4.

172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03


Yes each pass of the plane down 3 or 4 mb thats no good. Earl will be stronger and stronger. Tomorrow CAT2 for sure.
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Quoting MrstormX:
000
URNT15 KNHC 291725
AF306 0207A EARL HDOB 48 20100829
171530 1708N 05838W 8431 01414 9917 +179 +149 233043 043 045 007 00
171600 1709N 05839W 8426 01413 9909 +184 +149 238042 042 045 008 00
171630 1710N 05841W 8432 01402 9910 +167 +151 238043 044 048 014 00
171700 1711N 05842W 8433 01395 9905 +163 +151 238044 045 051 018 00
171730 1712N 05843W 8429 01392 9899 +160 +151 242043 044 053 018 00
171800 1713N 05844W 8419 01395 9879 +181 +152 241044 045 053 010 00
171830 1714N 05845W 8429 01376 9870 +182 +153 247049 050 055 011 00
171900 1715N 05846W 8433 01359 9869 +158 +154 253052 053 056 016 00
171930 1716N 05847W 8424 01362 9847 +176 +156 266049 053 058 012 03
172000 1717N 05847W 8440 01326 9820 +197 +159 271032 039 057 009 03
172030 1719N 05847W 8429 01329 9808 +204 +163 275021 023 038 004 03
172100 1720N 05847W 8425 01328 9797 +210 +167 272013 015 031 004 03
172130 1722N 05847W 8432 01316 9788 +219 +171 289005 008 028 004 03
172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03
172230 1725N 05848W 8425 01319 9785 +218 +183 076015 018 026 003 03
172300 1726N 05849W 8431 01316 9793 +202 +189 064019 020 028 006 03
172330 1727N 05850W 8431 01318 9799 +197 +191 065026 030 034 006 00
172400 1728N 05851W 8426 01332 9809 +196 +190 073046 051 047 004 00
172430 1729N 05852W 8433 01341 9823 +199 +189 074054 057 057 004 00
172500 1731N 05854W 8432 01354 9838 +198 +189 071058 058 057 004 00
$$
;



Hold your horses miami remember the 03 at the end means data contaminated. So not a true reading
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now whats see what kind of winds they find
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
763. BlxMS
Quoting cloudymix:
Hello all. I asked a couple of questions back a couple days that weren't answered, most likely because they were dumb questions. Had no reason to post in the years I've been lurking because all my questions were already being asked and answered, but I just wanted to try to take part occasionally in the discussion. So I tentatively try.

Five minutes ago TWC Carl Parker said that Earl is running out of space to turn north, and that a U.S. landfall cannot be ruled out. There seems to be space to me as I remember Elena doing a 180. There's a space, and a weakness in the ridge; what is keeping it at 280 degrees, simple inertia?
btw I'm not a youngster, I am 56, my work is as a sound engineer, but i have been weather-addicted every day of my life. Hopefully this was a decent question, and thanks for any replies.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 978.4.

172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03


I don't know about rapid but he is surely ramping it up.
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
It still looks like Earl is being flattened on its north side thanks to outflow and shear from Danielle. I think the islands will be okay with only a brush from a Cat 1 hurricane. Still need to be prepared, though. Earl will really ramp up once Danielle pulls further away, but I believe at that point he'll go fishing.

I still think the true threat for landfall will occur starting with Fiona/Gaston/Hermine, etc. when Storm W talked about pattern changes coming up in the next 7-10 days.


Exactly!
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ok wish one of you made Earl mad
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
kmanislander said that last night but I do not see anyone commenting on that and I sure did not see anyone calling him a westcaster/wishcaster.


Earl is not gonna go south of PR. he will follow the path of least resistance and start heading WNW then NW very soon.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Then officialls will finally get a chance to use these gates on the on and off ramps of Interstate 64 through richmond.


haha I know, lets hope it was worth the money. It should help people leave much faster though
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RI for sure with a 978 MB reading!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



978??????


Aye, Miami beat me though...
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Lots of tension on here today.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 978.4.

172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03

:O
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting watchingnva:


earl will pass well north of this buoy, its in the Caribbean...


Hey watch, I'm sure keeping a close eye on this thing in case the track shifts west enough to make landfall on the east coast. If evacuations are put into place for the Norfolk/VA Beach/Chesapeake area, i can't imagine what I-64 would be like. Traffic on 64 is bad enough on the weekends, when folks are heading to the beach, now evacuations?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 978.4.

172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03



man this thing is going under a RI
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting MrstormX:
000
URNT15 KNHC 291725
AF306 0207A EARL HDOB 48 20100829
171530 1708N 05838W 8431 01414 9917 +179 +149 233043 043 045 007 00
171600 1709N 05839W 8426 01413 9909 +184 +149 238042 042 045 008 00
171630 1710N 05841W 8432 01402 9910 +167 +151 238043 044 048 014 00
171700 1711N 05842W 8433 01395 9905 +163 +151 238044 045 051 018 00
171730 1712N 05843W 8429 01392 9899 +160 +151 242043 044 053 018 00
171800 1713N 05844W 8419 01395 9879 +181 +152 241044 045 053 010 00
171830 1714N 05845W 8429 01376 9870 +182 +153 247049 050 055 011 00
171900 1715N 05846W 8433 01359 9869 +158 +154 253052 053 056 016 00
171930 1716N 05847W 8424 01362 9847 +176 +156 266049 053 058 012 03
172000 1717N 05847W 8440 01326 9820 +197 +159 271032 039 057 009 03
172030 1719N 05847W 8429 01329 9808 +204 +163 275021 023 038 004 03
172100 1720N 05847W 8425 01328 9797 +210 +167 272013 015 031 004 03
172130 1722N 05847W 8432 01316 9788 +219 +171 289005 008 028 004 03
172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03
172230 1725N 05848W 8425 01319 9785 +218 +183 076015 018 026 003 03
172300 1726N 05849W 8431 01316 9793 +202 +189 064019 020 028 006 03
172330 1727N 05850W 8431 01318 9799 +197 +191 065026 030 034 006 00
172400 1728N 05851W 8426 01332 9809 +196 +190 073046 051 047 004 00
172430 1729N 05852W 8433 01341 9823 +199 +189 074054 057 057 004 00
172500 1731N 05854W 8432 01354 9838 +198 +189 071058 058 057 004 00
$$
;




978??????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
000
URNT15 KNHC 291725
AF306 0207A EARL HDOB 48 20100829
171530 1708N 05838W 8431 01414 9917 +179 +149 233043 043 045 007 00
171600 1709N 05839W 8426 01413 9909 +184 +149 238042 042 045 008 00
171630 1710N 05841W 8432 01402 9910 +167 +151 238043 044 048 014 00
171700 1711N 05842W 8433 01395 9905 +163 +151 238044 045 051 018 00
171730 1712N 05843W 8429 01392 9899 +160 +151 242043 044 053 018 00
171800 1713N 05844W 8419 01395 9879 +181 +152 241044 045 053 010 00
171830 1714N 05845W 8429 01376 9870 +182 +153 247049 050 055 011 00
171900 1715N 05846W 8433 01359 9869 +158 +154 253052 053 056 016 00
171930 1716N 05847W 8424 01362 9847 +176 +156 266049 053 058 012 03
172000 1717N 05847W 8440 01326 9820 +197 +159 271032 039 057 009 03
172030 1719N 05847W 8429 01329 9808 +204 +163 275021 023 038 004 03
172100 1720N 05847W 8425 01328 9797 +210 +167 272013 015 031 004 03
172130 1722N 05847W 8432 01316 9788 +219 +171 289005 008 028 004 03
172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03
172230 1725N 05848W 8425 01319 9785 +218 +183 076015 018 026 003 03
172300 1726N 05849W 8431 01316 9793 +202 +189 064019 020 028 006 03
172330 1727N 05850W 8431 01318 9799 +197 +191 065026 030 034 006 00
172400 1728N 05851W 8426 01332 9809 +196 +190 073046 051 047 004 00
172430 1729N 05852W 8433 01341 9823 +199 +189 074054 057 057 004 00
172500 1731N 05854W 8432 01354 9838 +198 +189 071058 058 057 004 00
$$
;

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Quoting cloudymix:
Hello all. I asked a couple of questions back a couple days that weren't answered, most likely because they were dumb questions. Had no reason to post in the years I've been lurking because all my questions were already being asked and answered, but I just wanted to try to take part occasionally in the discussion. So I tentatively try.

Five minutes ago TWC Carl Parker said that Earl is running out of space to turn north, and that a U.S. landfall cannot be ruled out. There seems to be space to me as I remember Elena doing a 180. There's a space, and a weakness in the ridge; what is keeping it at 280 degrees, simple inertia?
btw I'm not a youngster, I am 56, my work is as a sound engineer, but i have been weather-addicted every day of my life. Hopefully this was a decent question, and thanks for any replies.


I see three things imparting movement.. somebody please correct me if I am way off.

1) The prevailing west winds steering earl
2)The high reaching down from the CONUS
3) the natural tendency for earl to move north plus the Coriolis effect

The winds are pushing him westerly, but he also wants to move NW, as soon as he meets more resistance from the "nose" or SW corner periphery of the high over the CONUS this will slow his westerly movement imparted by the winds and he will try to meander up the high's South to North boundary... resulting in first WNW movement then NW.

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Pressure down to 978.4.

172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting markot:
earl is moving due west..could come in south of pr.
kmanislander said that last night but I do not see anyone commenting on that and I sure did not see anyone calling him a westcaster/wishcaster.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8393
Quoting DTwxrisk:


you have NO clue what you are talking about. None

please stop posting


Alright bro. For a met you sure are obnoxious. Do you consider youself a professional? Why don't we take a vote on who should stop posting.
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97L still has some organizing to do based on this mornings ASCAT
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Quoting DTwxrisk:


Jeff...

he asked has the euro ever been right once this summer?

come on.....


I've only seen you post something the last 2 days and already your being very annoying.

even if you are right, you don't have to be such a bully about it.
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Quoting Funkadelic:


So you are in agreement with the latest run of the Euro?


Leaning towards the EURO and CMC solutions
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


In the 4 to 5 day time frame, the CMC was the best performer on track prediction last year.

That's interesting, and I believe someone just mentioned it took a huge jog south on potential Fiona. Also judging by the satellite 97L isn't looking too good, so my thinking is the longer it takes to develop the less likely it feels the weakness left behind by Earl and more likely to follow the low level flow.
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Quoting DTwxrisk:
calm down dude... the 12z GFS is Much further east than the earlier runs

NYC would see partly cloudy skies if the 12z GFS was right







Is "Dude" the only name you know? Besides the other derogatory ones you have been using for the past 48 hours....Your "professionalism" is far lacking compared to other meteorologist like StormW that post on this blog.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


thats awesome, thats the only way ive been able to blog from school here... but if a mandatory evacuation is order the school has to shut down so im watchin very closely..


Then officialls will finally get a chance to use these gates on the on and off ramps of Interstate 64 through richmond.
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07L/H/E/C1
MARK
17.21N/58.69W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.