Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Remember that pretty clearly, I was watching in on TV, was in the hospital, and it was my birthday.

Quoting tornadodude:
From Wiki:

Hurricane Earl (1998)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Hurricane Earl was an atypical, short-lived Category 2 hurricane that caused moderate damage throughout the Southeast United States. It formed out of a poorly organized tropical disturbance over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late on August 31. Tracking towards the northwest, the storm quickly intensified into a hurricane on September 2 and made landfall early the next day near Panama City, Florida. Rapidly tracking towards Atlantic Canada, the extratropical remnants of Earl significantly intensified before passing over Newfoundland on September 6. The remnants were absorbed by former Hurricane Danielle two days later.


link
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1084. markot
look at latest satt. photos 97 is getting better organized...look at the real thing. not models all the time....
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1083. leo305
Quoting Hhunter:
WHY COULD EARL NOT ACIEVE CAT 5..FORECASTING STRENGTH IS THE MOST DIFFICULT..BUT MODELS STRONGLY POINT TO CAT 3-4 IN 72HRS..WHY COULD IT NOT BECOME CAT 5..NOT TRYING TO RAISE UNDUE FEAR BUT IT CAN HAPPEN..LOW PERCENTAGES..


Conditions have to be absolutely perfect for a CAT 5
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1082. IKE
96 hr. 12Z ECMWF...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Seasidecove:
Five years ago today, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in coastal southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. In total, at least 1,836 people lost their lives making it the deadliest United States hurricane since the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane. The citizens of the Mississippi West Coast (the towns of Bay Saint Louis & Waveland), wish to present Our Tribute to the vitcims of Katrina, and our Mississippi Gulf Coast region. I would like to request that everyone takes a moment today to remember all of the victims of Hurricane Katrina.


You have a beautiful community and are always in my thoughts and prayers.
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Quoting wdtcnewsonlinewx:
TWC Scenarios



Quoting wdtcnewsonlinewx:
TWC Scenarios



Did they wager a guess as to what will actually happen, or just pretty graphics
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Thank you, radarnerd. Our high temps forecast for the week in east Pa. have been going up. Either the dome is strengthening or expanding in size, or moving east more quickly. Any of these scenarios seem to bode well for the seaboard, but the GFS shows a ~18mb weakening of this dome between tomorrow and Friday. It still seems to keep Earl out, but does the next one move into this weakened situation?


If the image didn't work:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/24h/gfs_pres_24h.html
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From Wiki:

Hurricane Earl (1998)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Hurricane Earl was an atypical, short-lived Category 2 hurricane that caused moderate damage throughout the Southeast United States. It formed out of a poorly organized tropical disturbance over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late on August 31. Tracking towards the northwest, the storm quickly intensified into a hurricane on September 2 and made landfall early the next day near Panama City, Florida. Rapidly tracking towards Atlantic Canada, the extratropical remnants of Earl significantly intensified before passing over Newfoundland on September 6. The remnants were absorbed by former Hurricane Danielle two days later.


link
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Quoting 900MB:
Looks like NC to Mass has to keep a close eye on Earl! Has potential to be worst cane we have seen in the Northeast in a generation. Scary thought!
Here in NYC in cone of uncertainty!
And could accuweather(specifically talking about J.B) get their dooms day east coast storm?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
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1074. Hhunter
WHY COULD EARL NOT ACIEVE CAT 5..FORECASTING STRENGTH IS THE MOST DIFFICULT..BUT MODELS STRONGLY POINT TO CAT 3-4 IN 72HRS..WHY COULD IT NOT BECOME CAT 5..NOT TRYING TO RAISE UNDUE FEAR BUT IT CAN HAPPEN..LOW PERCENTAGES..
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935mb is about a mid Cat 4, usually.

Considering how this storm has been a bit like Alex with the pressure to winds, it could be high Cat 3.
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I wouldnt be surprised to see the odds of an east coast strike increase pretty soon.
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Five years ago today, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in coastal southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. In total, at least 1,836 people lost their lives making it the deadliest United States hurricane since the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane. The citizens of the Mississippi West Coast (the towns of Bay Saint Louis & Waveland), wish to present Our Tribute to the vitcims of Katrina, and our Mississippi Gulf Coast region. I would like to request that everyone takes a moment today to remember all of the victims of Hurricane Katrina.
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1069. maeko
Quoting tropicfreak:


You live in Richmond?? I don't live downtown but i live on the southside near Midlothian.


from there. haven't lived there in many moons. in Charleston, SC now.
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Not saying Earl is going to bypass the weakness just yet. I will say this however it's not as strong a weakness in the ridge as the steering maps are showing. All you have to do is look at WV imagery and you can see where the flow changes, we'll just have to see how strong he gets, as that will play a big role in how far west he makes it, at least for the moment. Kinda concerned about him sliding under the ridge in the SE.
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Quoting MrstormX:
ECMWF...the "most reliable tropical model" is making this a cat 5, we are in trouble
Do you have a link to the 12z run, I can only find the 00z run. Thanks

Revised. Been explained, run not complete.
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TWC Scenarios




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1065. unf97
Quoting JLPR2:


Maybe they dont want 3 storms active at the same time? :\

---------------

Also, hey everyone!


Well, there is still a vast amount of time to examine 97L right now as it is not an immediate threat to land. I think once another convective flare-up occurs near the circulation, I think NHC will upgrade it to TD status, probably this evening.
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Quoting KanKunKid:


Welcome to the "Doubters" club. Pretty much why we are here. Grab a name tag and a glass of punch and mingle! MINGLE!


that meant to say GFS not NHC
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000
URNT12 KNHC 291804 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/17:21:40Z
B. 17 deg 22 min N
058 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1248 m
D. 65 kt
E. 141 deg 35 nm
F. 202 deg 60 kt
G. 141 deg 37 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 18 C / 1531 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 20 CCA
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 67 KT NW QUAD 17:33:30Z
MOAT 8NM WIDE CENTERED 16NM RADIUS AROUND EYE NW THRU EAST
;
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Danielle looks Extratropical:


Danielle's just another windstorm now...She's not going to Europe is she?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1061. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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ECMWF...the "most reliable tropical model" is making this a cat 5, we are in trouble
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
haven't been here in a while, more westcasting i see
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Danielle looks Extratropical:

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1056. Hhunter
ACTUALLY I MEAN IN REALITY ..IF FURTHER EAST NOT AS FAR WEST FOR FIONA..BUT FURTHER WEST FOR EARL FURTHER WEST FOR FIONA... I BELIEVE
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Quoting YourCommonSense:


Yes.... How did you know???


I originally said "Hurricane Danielle upside down." Nonetheless, it is easy to determine that it is Hurricane Bill. Just look at the date at the bottom of the image.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF 72 hours has Earl as a Category 5 hurricane.


Where did you find that 12z euro. I'd like to see the whole run, if you have a link. I can only find the 00z thanks
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
does it all really matter until we actually get TD 8 or Fiona

at this point I am starting to wonder whether the NHC is right
Why are we still talking about this?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
1051. 900MB
Looks like NC to Mass has to keep a close eye on Earl! Has potential to be worst cane we have seen in the Northeast in a generation. Scary thought!
Here in NYC in cone of uncertainty!
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1050. Brennen
Quoting crashingwaves:
Ready or not EC, here comes Earl. Looking at the latest model runs, it seems their showing an EC hit. Maybe NC but thats not etched in stone yet. I sure hope anyone living on the EC from Florida on up the EC seaboard continues to watch the progress of Earl. Now that the models have changed and the fact that Jeff M. stated the trough could be weaker or the timing could be off. But in any case, we will be getting a major H, our way.


Forgive my ignorance as I am pretty new at tracking this stuff, but the 8 am models still look to recurve Earl, and even the NHC cone of uncertainty only provides an outside chance for a hit by Friday morning on the east coast as of advisory 17A. It seems if it stays due north after the Friday dot it may crash into something, but it would still be far enough at sea it could still recurve like the models suggest.
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Later folks... happy hunting!
I'm off to body-surf the swells from Danielle...
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1048. Hhunter
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Recurve...

So if Earl takes a farther East track, then Fiona will get closer to the USA?
YES I THINK SO
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Quoting DTwxrisk:


so the answer is NO

you cannot find a post where I did that.
post 931
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Quoting AWeatherLover:
Local NWS office is discussing how they think 97 (AKA Fiona) is clearly a depression. Not sure why the NHC hasn't named it one yet. Per their noon call they said they just didn't have enough evidence of a low level circulation. Not sure what kind of evidence they need... Any guesses?


A scatterometer pass that shows a closed circulation would help, the one from this morning did not.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Quoting AWeatherLover:


The NWS disagrees.


the NHC doesn't and they are the ones that classify the systems
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF 72 hours has Earl as a Category 5 hurricane.


Thank God it's North of me on that run.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1043. robj144
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
That is correct. Storms going through the Hebert box will most likely hit Florida, but that rule only applies if they are major hurricanes going through the box.





Is that the Bobby Hebert box? Is that we he did after he was done with football? :)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


To answer your question further up, Earl would more than likely come farther west if he were weaker than forecast because the trof would be less likely to pick him up. However, there is really no reason why Earl shouldn't strengthen quickly now and become a powerful hurricane just north of Puerto Rico.

thanks
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


the circulation is not well defined based on an ASCAT pass this morning and the convection has become disorganized

97L is not a TD or TS at this time


The NWS disagrees.
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Quoting YourCommonSense:


Since you have such awesome forecasting skills, can you tell me where this is going to hit?
The date at the bottom gave ya away.
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1038. JLPR2
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Local NWS office is discussing how they think 97 (AKA Fiona) is clearly a depression. Not sure why the NHC hasn't named it one yet. Per their noon call they said they just didn't have enough evidence of a low level circulation. Not sure what kind of evidence they need... Any guesses?


Maybe they dont want 3 storms active at the same time? :\

---------------

Also, hey everyone!
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I believe Invest 97L is a Tropical Depression. If this is not a Tropical Depression, then it is very close. I can see where the NHC is coming from with the convection, but this has the potential to become a major-player and I believe it deserves to be decalred. I've seen worse looking systems before.

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starting to look better in the GOM and Caribbean.. for the most part..
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Earl should have reacted more to that weakness by now...instead it will run into the massive east coast high which is building more quickly than anticipated
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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