Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Going through some of my links and came across this one that I forgot about. Shows radars in the tropics with links to them.

http://www.waweather.com/tropical/radarmap.html
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Kman, at what point will South Florida have to become concerned should he NOT turn?
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1183. scott39
Earl will have to srenghthen significantly to make such a drastic poleward move. IMO
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1182. HarryMc
Quoting TexasHoosier:


I go with "C", possibly "D". Looks like intensification is starting to roll with this Hurricane. If it gets big fast and keeps up speed, EC is in trouble.....


C
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will i find it a little bit of good news if it gos overe Haiti and right overe the 8,000ft mts hurricanes dont like mts so Haiti could weaked the storm so that could be better news for any one liveing in the USA if it took that track


but the bad news is in all of that is its not what Haiti needs right now
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1179. eye
This season reminds me of 1998 all over again (I think that was the year)....we had like 5 storms out there at once, all recurved out to sea, following the same weakness that was there all season long (same song, different verse). Thank GOD for this persistant weakness this season so far!
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Quoting Seasidecove:
Five years ago today, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in coastal southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. In total, at least 1,836 people lost their lives making it the deadliest United States hurricane since the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane. The citizens of the Mississippi West Coast (the towns of Bay Saint Louis & Waveland), wish to present Our Tribute to the vitcims of Katrina, and our Mississippi Gulf Coast region. I would like to request that everyone takes a moment today to remember all of the victims of Hurricane Katrina.


Thank you for posting that...just a horrible reminder of what really happened with that storm. Our state is thankfully full of resilient and strong people and we have made a huge comeback.
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Earl's up to 80 mph, will probably be 85-90 at 5.

AL, 07, 2010082918, , BEST, 0, 174N, 589W, 70, 978, HU
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Quoting IKE:
I know futuremet posted the 192 hr. frame of the ECMWF. Here's the 144 hr.



Thanks for the clarification Ike. It seems the ECMWF takes Fiona much farther west. Hopefully it does not move into the Gulf of Mexico.
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1175. maeko
Quoting JLPR2:


Maybe they dont want 3 storms active at the same time? :\

---------------

Also, hey everyone!


i too have noticed a conservative posture. for good or ill? that i do not know, but it gives the impression of a low confidence level.
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Quoting flhurricanesurvivor:
I thought that the Hebert box indicated storms of 110 mph or more that hit s fl had passed through the box, not that they were 110 mph as they passed through the box? Anyone know?
in summary, correct...there have been a couple of exception, Andrew being one.
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Quoting DTwxrisk:



this is wrong ... 72 euro has pressure 935 mb

cat 4 not cat 5


Dude, don't you have some work to do, being a professional. Must be a slow day, if all you have to do is argue with everyone's posts. These are opinions, and I highly doubt that anyone here makes their storm plans from what's posted in the blog. Your attitude is so degrading. I'm surprised you haven't argued the color of the sky yet.
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1172. xcool
'
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Quoting DestinJeff:


So do you think that the buiding ridge keeps Fiona to the south and moving quick enough west that it blows through the Florida Straits and into the GOM?
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Is that area south of Jamaica worth mentioning?
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Does anyone have any in take on the wave currently situatated off of africa,and I'm not talking about 97L.IMO I think that could develope,and possibally track into the carribean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
CMC/EMCWF are in pretty good agreement
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
Hey Kman how's it this afternoon. That steering map you just posted. How is Earl supposed to break through that.


Earl needs to sharpen the turn to avoid the risk of being blocked by the building high. I am not convinced that the slight change of motion is enough to achieve this and the flow turns to the SW not far from where Earl is now.

If he deepens enough this afternoon, Earl would presumably be strong enough to force the issue and make a more pronounced move poleward.

The NHC seems to have a high degree of confidence in the evolution of the steering regime so we will see how it plays out this afternoon. Remember though this is the same system that should have turned to the NW several hundred miles East of where it is now.

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1166. xcool
Earl moved west hmmm wt-=9
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1165. IKE
I know futuremet posted the 192 hr. frame of the ECMWF. Here's the 144 hr.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1164. Thaale
Shhesh. In three more runs, the Euro's going to have Fiona crashing into Venezuela. Pretty dramatic shifts each of the past few updates.
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Thanks Legion. That's what I thought.
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Quoting futuremet:
216 HR 12Z ECMWF



That's yesterday's run :)
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Quoting IKE:
120 hr. 12Z ECMWF....


Well, that is the CMC, GFS and EWFMS so far taking this closer to the coast.

Here is Hurricane Bob from 1991.



Totally different etiology, but from this point forward the parallels are fairly obvious.

Trough timing issue pulled Bob northward sooner than expected to landfall at Newport, RI as a cat 2 with 100 mph winds.

Hurricane Bob Wiki
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http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Leeward Radar
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1158. xcool
look to me Earl moved west
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1157. Thaale
Quoting flhurricanesurvivor:
I thought that the Hebert box indicated storms of 110 mph or more that hit s fl had passed through the box, not that they were 110 mph as they passed through the box? Anyone know?

Yes, that's right. The idea is that most Cat3s and above that strike SFL previously pass through one of the two HB's (usually HB 1 in summer, HB 2 in fall), but not necessariliy as majors or even hurricanes at the time they pass through the HB.

Home-brewed storms like Katrina are asterisks. They don't disprove the the thesis. What would is if SFL started getting hit by CV storms that ducked over the box or under it. Andrew was a borderline case, but I think the consensus is that he di just clip the NE corner of HB 1.
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Offically Earl strengthened 7mb in 3hrs...so it's time for poll:
Q:How strong will be Earl in 5pm advisory?
A.75mph
B.80mph
C.85mph
D.90mph
E.95mph
F.100mph
G.Higher than 100mph
My guess D or E


I go with "C", possibly "D". Looks like intensification is starting to roll with this Hurricane. If it gets big fast and keeps up speed, EC is in trouble.....
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Quoting futuremet:
216 HR 12Z ECMWF



Is that supposed to be Fiona?
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NYC needs to watch out, there is the potential for this to be the big one.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1152. ryang
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP144.gif
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Quoting xcool:


Nice map xcool. By this image, it looks like we may already have Fiona. Pretty good outflow going on already/ JMO
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1150. scCane
Ugh moving back to SC/NC....
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1148. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


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1146. nash28
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Precisely. The models are only a tool, overused and over-hyped. Too much dependence and not enough finite observations of actually what is happening.

Earl has been moving mostly "west" at a stiff clip of just better than 17 mph. It's historical track has been fairly consistent as well, and the departing weakness has had very little effect on any northerly motion towards the open Atlantic.



It's in 30 degree waters with high TCHP. Only moderate shear, nulled by partial anti-cylcone overhead. There is some dry air to its nwest, but it has built a considerable (and growing) moisture field. There is no reason for it not to strengthen, and likely find intense status.

The northern islands and the Bahamas are almost certain to be impacted. The strength of the CONUS ridge and its eastward movement will now, imo, effect Earl's eventual track - not likely, as I can see in the present, to miss an east coast landfall. The discussion speaks of a upper CONUS trough late in the forecast period possibly pulling Earl away from land, but that's days away, may or may not develop - may not be as strong. If you're in the northern islands, or on the eastern seaboard, why roll the dice? Much better to be prepared and be ready. Have a plan. Stay cognizant of what's happening.

Mostly yack here, no met, and, it wouldn't be the first time I've missed a landfall - just the way I see it, the finite observations in the present.


Hey MLC!!! Good to see you man!

Have to disagree with you on one point.. The trough is there.. Look at WV and you will see the trough parked over the Rockies. The question is how amplified will this trough be once it reaches the east coast? Another issue is whether or not this trough stalls or splits, as many troughs in late Aug/early Sep. do...
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Quoting rarepearldesign:



Earl is definetly something to watch this week along the EC.
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Offically Earl strengthened 7mb in 3hrs...so it's time for poll:
Q:How strong will be Earl in 5pm advisory?
A.75mph
B.80mph
C.85mph
D.90mph
E.95mph
F.100mph
G.Higher than 100mph
My guess D or E
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1142. Relix
Quoting serialteg:


It would be foolish to drop guard.

I know! Just feeling optimist XD
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2723
12z UKMET, 97L gets to Fujiwara with Earl

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That would be very bad for Haiti.
I don't see that occuring.Haiti will be safe from Earl the trouble maker.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
216 HR 12Z ECMWF

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1137. dader
Quoting Yankeesfan924:


That looks a little too close for comfort for the NE


Re: Euro model
Would be an incredibly impressive TC for the NEast- 920ish pressure. Can anyone read what the pressure is on Future Fiona right off the Bahamas?
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1136. IKE
Quoting Funkadelic:


It isnt loading past 120 hours?


Not yet....where I get them from.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Relix:
Oh! I see it's finally moving WNW! =). Well, seems like I can relax a little more now. At least that would mean no direct hurricane over us =D. Hurricane Warning is needless at that pace.


It would be foolish to drop guard.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.