Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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1635. JLPR2
Quoting StormJunkie:


I'm going with .05%...Don't mistakenly read that as 5%


That makes me feel comfortable. xD
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1634. jeebsa

What is with the F Storms 2004 Danielle, Earl, Frances (retired). 97L possible Fiona wait and see Will history repeats?
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Quoting DTwxrisk:
ABOUT 12Z EURO SOLUTION

DAY 10 ENLARGED




um, which system is THAT supposed to be?
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Quoting Sunglasses:
In my view Earl is building up to be a monster storm.With a 979mB center(already) and still several days of uninterrupted intensification to follow. EARL has the potential to hit the US SEABOARD if the Ridge weakens ahead of the storm(which given the exit of Danielle to the north,is not without probability.

97L(Frank) is waiting in the wings of the other two and this sequence proves that we are now in a very active period of Hurricane development.


Frank??
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1242
'Problem is, a CAT 4 or CAT 5 Hurricane may mean there is little organized government and infrastructure left after such a calamity and left with an enormous human tragedy unfolding.'

the earthquake pretty well took care of that...

...the question here is not CAN we help...or SHOULD we help...but...Will they LET us help?

once the Preval government found their sea legs after the earthquake...the relief effort ground to a crawl..."gifting opportunities" became rampant...the fear is that with a substantial international presence, the Haitian government has to behave...thus, they may decide not to ask for help from us...
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1629. maeko
forgive me, but may i suggest that posts be more clear on if they refer to Earl or 97L. i tend to be easily confused.
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1628. hydrus
Looks stronger..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21433
Quoting portcharlotte:
Kman...Those charts tell me Earl is not going to make it in time to recurve..I may be wrong or the charts are wrong but it's too late, that high is bulging down quickly to the southeast.




I am waiting to see if Earl can clear 18N before 62 W. Very interesting situation developing out there.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
If Earl gets anywhere near Fl, Ga, or southern SC then this would be the single worst model failure in many years.


I agree with you Junkie..... the NHC seems to have a pretty good handle on Earl.......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1624. srada
Quoting wdtcnewsonlinewx:


I love these updates.

Where are you located?
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In my view Earl is building up to be a monster storm.With a 979mB center(already) and still several days of uninterrupted intensification to follow. EARL has the potential to hit the US SEABOARD if the Ridge weakens ahead of the storm(which given the exit of Danielle to the north,is not without probability.

97L(Frank) is waiting in the wings of the other two and this sequence proves that we are now in a very active period of Hurricane development.
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Quoting JLPR2:


So what are the chances of Earl turning towards the west again?
That high to his NW looks intense.


I'm going with .05%...Don't mistakenly read that as 5%
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Kman...Those charts tell me Earl is not going to make it in time to recurve..I may be wrong or the charts are wrong but it's too late, that high is bulging down quickly to the southeast.


Quoting kmanislander:


More importantly look at how the isobars have tightened up. The flow around that high has also strengthened.
Quoting kmanislander:


More importantly look at how the isobars have tightened up. The flow around that high has also strengthened.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WEST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS SURROUNDED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
EXTENDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HURRICANE
EARL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THEN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND CONTINUE UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
If Earl gets anywhere near Fl, Ga, or southern SC then this would be the single worst model failure in many years.


No worries. The NHC discussion is pretty clear.
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1617. ackee

Agree seem to be going more west now
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Expect the final advisory written on Hurricane Danielle as it now has become extra-tropical in nature.
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Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
97L looks like a TD to me, anyone else?


I think for quite a while now!!!
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1614. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:




weakness almost completely pinched off


So what are the chances of Earl turning towards the west again?
That high to his NW looks intense.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
IMO Earl has slowed a resumed a more westerly course once again, still around 17.4/5 imo.

where are you ?
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Single worst...
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1608. hydrus
Quoting PcolaDan:


Two pinehole eyes.

Looks severe. Probably a strong 3.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21433
1607. sarepa
Is Dominican Republic safe already from Earl?
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Quoting Relix:
Earl should pass 150+ miles N of PR. Expect rains and some gusts. Clebra and Vieques prepare for TS winds. That should be it. Moving right on NHCs track atm


Its moving W again
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1605. unf97
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Ike, I can't believe I forgot about Frederic. That was bad! Let's hope 97L doesn't take that path.


1979. Yep. Frederic was a bad one for Mobile area. Ironically, that was the same year David made landfall near West Palm Beach and later up the coast to Savannah.
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1604. hydrus
< Sorry for the extra posts, computer is not working right.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21433
Quoting MrstormX:


Miami, do you know if NOAA9 dropped a dropsenade into Earl?


Dropsenade? Dropsonde? lol
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If Earl gets anywhere near Fl, Ga, or southern SC then this would be the single worst model failure in many years.
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1600. ackee

Agree seem to be going more west now
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1599. Relix
Earl should pass 150+ miles N of PR. Expect rains and some gusts. Clebra and Vieques prepare for TS winds. That should be it. Moving right on NHCs track atm
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popped in for a few....are the models shifting further west on Earl?
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Quoting Clearwater1:


Exactly!


Clearwater1 and Portlight - agreed on the sovereingty of the Haitian government.

Problem is, a CAT 4 or CAT 5 Hurricane may mean there is little organized government and infrastructure left after such a calamity and left with an enormous human tragedy unfolding.

Only the US can do anyhing about it. It has the infrastructure on our Gulf and SE Coast to do it (airfields, port facilities, POL Storage installations, etc.).

But as Katrina showed, you have to be ready to execute and not just react as time is life and death to those affected.

Given that a lot of the Haitians are pretty much living in the open and we have one or more tropical systems that can intensify very quickly to major hurricane status AND CHANGE DIRECTION in spite of our best weather models in just hours, there is real vulnerability right now on Haiti to a real bad human disaster - told my wife and co-workers about this 3-4 months ago when it started to appear this could be really bad tropical weather season in the Caribbean and GOM.

Only the US can make a difference. We need to be ready now. If we are not, then we just did not learn or remember anything from Katrina and Ike (lucked out on that one).

Again, no disrespect intended, but there are some things that exceed many nations ability to respond and be successful at. This is one.

CAT4/5 Hurricane + Exposed Population on Barren Hillsides - Massive, Timely US Response = Huge Death Toll and Human Misery

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After reviewing the vapor charts you can see that weakness flattening out and showing hints of retreating north. The flow is becoming more zonal to the north. I would not bet all my marbles on Earl going all the way..If anything I'll give it wnw and probably will bend back to the west later with that ridge on the east coast IMO.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I can't wait to see this blog with Igor. First we get Wilma here, Fiona forecast off our coast, whats Igor going to do? Seriously
Let's get through these two first before we think about Igor
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Earl is going to have to take a hardcore right and do it soon to make it up behind Danielle....I think.

Storm W, am I missing something here?
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1593. KBH
Ironically noaa utilises a number system '97L' which converts into a storm name, as opposed to continuing on a higher number scale e.g 100 M. (M is now used to mean major hurricane) It solves the problem with names and intensity
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The next Reconnaissance mission arrives to Earl at 8pm EDT, they will be leaving at 12am EDT.


Miami, do you know if NOAA9 dropped a dropsenade into Earl?
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1591. KBH
Ironically noaa utilises a number system '97L' which converts into a storm name, as opposed to continuing on a higher number scale e.g 100 M. (M is now used to mean major hurricane) It solves the problem with names and intensity
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
1590. unf97
Quoting tennisgirl08:
97L has perfect outflow and banding. And agree with Ike, a much larger system than Earl. Only lacking in convection. Future Fiona will be trouble for someone, just not sure who yet?

Why is it that the female storms are always the problem? ha ha



That seems to be the case most times LOL. But, remember, Hugo, Ivan and Floyd were some boys that were tough to nail down in forecasts that I can recall in the past.
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look just north of haiti, on a water vapor image.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:




weakness almost completely pinched off


More importantly look at how the isobars have tightened up. The flow around that high has also strengthened.
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1587. jonelu
Quoting srada:
okay so is Earl now being predicted to head in the florida straits? Im confused


Its all over the place. Once we see several models predicting the same trend several times in a row...then I would start my plans.
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Quoting srada:
Latest update from the NWS Wilmington NC

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING ON DOWN THE EAST
COAST AS EARL TRACKS AROUND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE JUST NORTHEAST UP THE
SPINE OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST GFS HAS CLOSEST APPROACH
AT 380 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR THURS MORNING WHILE ECMWF HAS IT 340
MILES EAST...BOTH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE EFFECTS OF
EARL COULD BE FELT UP TO 200 MILES OUTSIDE OF THE THIS CIRCULATION
BUT IF CURRENT TRACK IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE MINIMAL EFFECTS ON
LOCAL WEATHER. EARL WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD REMAIN
OFF SHORE FOR THE MOST PART AS IT TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURS
THROUGH FRI WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM...POSSIBLY THE FUTURE
FIONA...TRACKS MORE WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LOOKS LIKE
THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AS EARL MOVES
NORTHWEST AND A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURS INTO FRI. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AND THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD WILL PROVE CRITICAL TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND EARL. AT THIS POINT THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP ALERT FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST OF BOTH
EARL AND THE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW BEHIND EARL. ACCORDING TO ECMWF...
THE
FUTURE FIONA MISSES THE TROUGH OR THE BOAT SO TO SPEAK AND THE
SYSTEM REMAINS ON A MORE WESTWARD AND SOUTHERN TRACK.


I love these updates.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
When is next recon?
The next Reconnaissance mission arrives to Earl at 8pm EDT, they will be leaving at 12am EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.