Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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No ships reports within 320 miles of 41044 in the south atlantic....Imagine that?
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1934. xcool


Euro Ensemble
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1933. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh well not all lows, just the ones that are strong or deserves to be monitored.
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Quoting TruthCommish:


Mr. "I predicted Katrina - so I am a weather god", I didn't say the movement was NW, I said there is a North component to the movement, I.E. North of due West. It was not an opinion, just noticeable. Maybe if you post in BOLD CAPS, you’ll have more credibility?
Weather God? that's a new one lol
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Quoting MississippiWx:


No problem. The NHC doesn't believe it will hit you directly, but you should always pay attention with one being so close. Each hour that passes with Earl jogging west puts it closer and closer to you. If that ridge ends up being stronger than the models indicate, then you could have a hurricane at your doorstep. However, it's hard to go against such consistency from the models and such confidence from the NHC.


I don't think Earl can go much further west..he is at west end of steering ridge and has a good size ULL type feature west of him..Northward component should begin soon..til then hope all our friends in E. Carib
are OK...
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Landsea's forecasting on Danielle with Berg.

Don't see that too often.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting IKE:


Whaaat?! A rightward adjustment to the track? Okay, somebody tell me how Earl is supposed to turn NW when near Puerto Rico when there is a ridge supposed to be over the eastern US by that time. That's a turn to the NW right into a ridge. How?

I would rather that be true anyway because it would make Earl a lesser threat. But how is that supposed to happen?
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1927. surfmom
Quoting MoltenIce:
Earl's eye, pretty well defined but still not visible yet.



Do we know what kind of eye yet???

Post 1869
-- I see a cow in that pic, poor dear -- she's going to have a rough ride
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
1904. MrstormX 8:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

Europe names all lows and highs that form.

How do they not run out of names then?
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They are basing everything on the Great Lakes trough in days 4 and 5. If Earl is way south or the trough is weaker than that theory fails...We'll see

Quoting leo305:
NHC really trusting those models
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Quoting IKE:
That wave behind 97L is the next canidate for a storm.It may sneak up on a few of you,since most seem to be ignoring it.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
1904. MrstormX 8:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

Europe names all lows and highs that form.


Lol...seriously lol
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1922. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hello, surfmom =)
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Models for 'Fiona', despite the excitement of last night's ECMWF run, are tending to keep that system out to sea as well


We can't write it off just yet, but we can hope it turns out.
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1920. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1904. MrstormX 8:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

Europe names all lows and highs that form.
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St. Barts Airport webcam:

http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/caribbean-web-cams/st-barts-airport-webcam.shtml


and here is a view of the beach at St. Maarten

http://www.thevillasongreatbay.com/index.php?id=8
(The Weather isn't that bad there now)
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The northern leeward islands was not in the forecast cone until two and half days ago. The NHC has been predicting a significant turn, saving the northern leeward islands. Hasn't happened. Now they have a high chance of receiving a direct hit.
What are the chances the storm fails to make that northwest turn before even Puerto Rico? The Island is not under a hurricane warning. Looks like they should at least jolt the residents there and caution them for possible hurricane force winds.
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Back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1912. IKE
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EARL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SURROUNDING
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THERE ARE NO HINTS OF AN EYE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER AN EYE IS APPARENT IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND WAS ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT A
FEW HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE PLANE DID NOT FIND HIGHER FLIGHT-LEVEL
OR SFMR WINDS THAN IT DID THIS MORNING...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
REPORTED WAS LOWER ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 978 MB.
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT. A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ON A
RESEARCH MISSION SHOULD BE IN EARL SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
AIR FORCE C-130 MISSION BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC.

THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TODAY YIELD AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 36-48 HOURS. EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO
GREAT LAKES REGION IN 4-5 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
FASTER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE OFFICIAL CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72 HOURS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL
MODELS SHOW EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.6N 59.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 61.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 18.9N 63.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 65.1W 110 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 22.1N 66.9W 115 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.3N 70.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 33.5N 71.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Recon is descending into the CoC, nowhere near there yet.

000
URNT15 KWBC 292047
NOAA3 WX07A EARL4 HDOB 07 20100829
203800 1639N 05837W 6617 03564 //// +071 //// 194047 047 047 003 21
203830 1640N 05838W 6620 03557 0016 +073 +075 196047 048 045 002 00
203900 1642N 05840W 6608 03571 0011 +074 +076 197047 048 044 004 00
203930 1643N 05842W 6597 03580 0001 +077 +075 196046 046 045 008 00
204000 1645N 05843W 6596 03579 //// +076 //// 198050 055 047 011 21
204030 1647N 05845W 6587 03586 //// +077 //// 206053 054 049 015 21
204100 1648N 05847W 6592 03576 //// +079 //// 212050 051 053 014 21
204130 1650N 05848W 6591 03574 //// +075 //// 205046 048 053 016 21
204200 1651N 05850W 6587 03574 //// +071 //// 212043 048 056 030 21
204230 1653N 05852W 6578 03583 //// +067 //// 205054 058 059 029 25
204300 1654N 05853W 6539 03633 //// +071 //// 211045 048 058 013 25
204330 1656N 05855W 6566 03597 //// +074 //// 214046 048 045 004 21
204400 1658N 05857W 6543 03625 //// +077 //// 219047 048 047 006 21
204430 1659N 05858W 6567 03593 9970 +076 +081 219046 047 046 005 00
204500 1700N 05900W 6562 03597 9962 +080 +067 221044 045 045 007 00
204530 1702N 05901W 6561 03592 9950 +085 +060 220046 047 046 007 00
204600 1703N 05903W 6575 03569 9946 +084 +061 216042 043 045 007 00
204630 1705N 05905W 6536 03614 9945 +080 +061 212040 041 044 007 00
204700 1707N 05906W 6567 03573 9946 +078 +063 207038 038 044 004 00
204730 1708N 05908W 6534 03612 9928 +086 +065 209039 045 045 003 00

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Not resting easy yet 11am thru 2pm saw a movement of .2n .5w the 2pm thru 5pm is .2n .6w not at all convinced this is the trend the NHC projected IMO
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So the NHC is playing the no Ridge card or that Earl will break through and go North West then North then North East.

What are your thoughts.
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1907. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1884. PanhandleChuck 8:50 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

Panhandle....what model is that?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

They're flying a Texas Flag???


Sure looks like it!
I wouldn'y have noticed it if u hadn't pointed it out!
Good eye for detail!
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


If anyone wants to track Danielle out of the NHC area of responsibility


Erina? WTF, does Europe name storms over land lol.
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1903. Relix
Sorry, phone. =/
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1902. K8eCane
Quoting IKE:
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.


Makes it as far west as 71.5, before turning back to the NE.



with 200 nm average errors on day 4 Ike
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1901. Relix
It's right of the forecast points and moving WNW-NW. Seems like it'll pass even farther away. I feel sorry for the people buying fuel and food in droves. My neighbor boarded up. Meh =/. Oh well, tomorrow should be a regular day at PR with some winds, some rain and nothing more.

UPR students go to your classes! XD!
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1900. Relix
It's right of the forecast points and moving WNW-NW. Seems like it'll pass even farther away. I feel sorry for the people buying fuel and food in droves. My neighbor boarded up. Meh =/. Oh well, tomorrow should be a regular day at PR with some winds, some rain and nothing more.

UPR students go to your classes! XD!
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1899. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1898. surfmom
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


If anyone wants to track Danielle out of the NHC area of responsibility

interesting! : )
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Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
Kman. IF Earl waits until 65 W to hit 20 N. What happens.


Look at the new map from the NHC at 5. They have Earl right at those coordinates and heading off to the NW after that.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1896. leo305
NHC really trusting those models
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Quoting katrinakat5:
WEATHERWANNABE THAT'S YOUR OPINION...ONE THING IF YOU THINK EARL IS MOVING NW I WOULD DEFINITELY GO HAVE YOUR EYES CHECKED...NOT TRYING BE SMART JUST BEING DIRECT...THE PEOPLE OF PUERTO RICO ARE IN DANGER TRUST ME EARL IS GOING TO RAMP UP TO AT LEAST A CAT 2 THEY NEED TO KNOW THIS...IMO COMPUTERS ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON THIS ONE...




Why are you yelling?
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Quoting leo305:


can you post the google earth map with the other vortex fixes when they get there! Would be very appreciated


Sure no problem...
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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


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17.6 N 59.5 W WNW course.

Advisory out.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1890. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


If anyone wants to track Danielle out of the NHC area of responsibility
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1889. leo305
mhm very very strong ridge actually.. looking at the visible of the carribean/mid atlantic
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Latest has Earl rocketing NNE in 5 days...Hard to believe right now
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1886. dmh1026
Firefox works great on WU and everywhere else.
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Quoting katrinakat5:
WEATHERWANNABE THAT'S YOUR OPINION...ONE THING IF YOU THINK EARL IS MOVING NW I WOULD DEFINITELY GO HAVE YOUR EYES CHECKED...NOT TRYING BE SMART JUST BEING DIRECT...THE PEOPLE OF PUERTO RICO ARE IN DANGER TRUST ME EARL IS GOING TO RAMP UP TO AT LEAST A CAT 2 THEY NEED TO KNOW THIS...IMO COMPUTERS ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON THIS ONE...


Mr. "I predicted Katrina - so I am a weather god", I didn't say the movement was NW, I said there is a North component to the movement, I.E. North of due West. It was not an opinion, just noticeable. Maybe if you post in BOLD CAPS, you’ll have more credibility?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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