Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GetReal:



IMHO it is getting more and more interesting as to if and when Earl makes that NW turn... The door of oppurtunity is not all that wide...


Look at how big that ridge over the eastern US is! And that ridge is supposed to be there through 1200Z September 1 (according to predicting HPC fronts). So, how on earth is it supposed to turn NW now? Okay, even if not that, how is it supposed to turn NW when its approaching the waters directly north of Puerto Rico?
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1983. surfmom
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hey MrstormX, looks like surf will be up this week!

Boys (&maybe some chicas) on the Gomex are saving their pennies & wangling days off from work

I think the pictures from PR are going to be amazing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Just curious for other opinions, how many think the computer models need to adjust themselves more to the left?


-EARL- Yes I think the models are off on this one but once we get the data from the HH I bet there will be another westward shift. I'm not an expert but looking at the steering layers etc. it only makes sense to me anyway.
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Quoting GetReal:
StormW if for some reason Earl was to miss the weakness to its' north, and fail to make that NW turn, would it be fair to say that Earl could actually begin, over the next 12 hours a WSW track into the Caribbean???


I'm not storm, but get real, this storm is never going to make it to the Caribbean.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm very impressed. The NOAA P-3 aircraft on a research mission is finding a pressure of 968.1mb and are still not at the circulation. The pressure reading also does not appear to be contaminated nor faulty.

205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 +126 +082 143006 009 024 001 00


Yeah not at the center yet, could drop a few more mb. NHC might have to put out a special update/advisory.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
HURRICANE EARL / INVEST 97L SPECIAL UPDATE AUG. 29, 2010 ISSUED 5:00PM.
Thanks for the update to your blog. With all that said, the pattern is shifting. So, if Fiona doesn't make it west, the possibility for future storms making it west is greater, due to the pattern change. Right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
000
URNT15 KWBC 292057
NOAA3 WX07A EARL4 HDOB 08 20100829
204800 1710N 05910W 6529 03609 //// 073 //// 209050 054 048 006 21
204830 1711N 05911W 6544 03584 //// 067 //// 216054 058 062 034 21
204900 1713N 05913W 6494 03643 //// 081 //// 220050 051 061 028 21
204930 1714N 05914W 6561 03555 //// 080 //// 220052 055 056 018 21
205000 1716N 05916W 6546 03566 //// 079 //// 220053 053 046 009 21
205030 1718N 05918W 6541 03571 //// 077 //// 217057 059 043 009 25
205100 1719N 05919W 6535 03570 //// 076 //// 216058 062 048 008 21
205130 1720N 05921W 6509 03595 //// 078 //// 219063 065 050 012 21
205200 1721N 05923W 6532 03558 //// 085 //// 220064 066 051 012 21
205230 1723N 05924W 6541 03539 9841 095 093 216047 057 050 006 00
205300 1724N 05926W 6560 03510 //// 096 //// 214043 045 052 013 21
205330 1725N 05928W 6465 03621 //// 093 //// 216038 040 050 006 21
205400 1726N 05930W 6451 03632 9796 102 094 213036 038 043 003 00
205430 1728N 05932W 6452 03622 9782 105 107 215035 036 043 002 00
205500 1729N 05934W 6474 03583 9770 107 102 214033 034 045 002 00
205530 1730N 05936W 6454 03597 9742 116 110 215031 032 046 003 00
205600 1731N 05937W 6453 03586 9717 125 106 218029 030 046 003 00
205630 1733N 05939W 6433 03605 9703 128 095 223023 027 033 002 00
205700 1734N 05941W 6422 03607 9683 136 081 213015 018 022 001 00
205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 126 082 143006 009 024 001 00

Thought id bump it to the new page lol


What website is that from? Can you please provide me a link, thanks!!
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Quoting Relix:
It's right of the forecast points and moving WNW-NW. Seems like it'll pass even farther away. I feel sorry for the people buying fuel and food in droves. My neighbor boarded up. Meh =/. Oh well, tomorrow should be a regular day at PR with some winds, some rain and nothing more.

UPR students go to your classes! XD!


sorry but I think you are wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 20:57:30Z
Coordinates: 17.6N 59.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.0 mb (~ 18.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,642 meters (~ 11,949 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 968.1 mb (~ 28.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 6 knots (From the SE at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 12.6°C (~ 54.7°F)
Dew Pt: 8.2°C (~ 46.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)

971mb this is worst than i imagine.
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1975. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1954. Cotillion 9:03 PM GMT on August 29, 2010


It's only really the University of Berlin which does it. Not all European meteorological offices bother with it.

The UKMO synoptic charts don't tend to bother.


I figured they would.. I mean I've seen Dr Masters refer a snow storm with the designated name given to the low.
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Quoting Funkadelic:
Here is an amateur cone that I found on a weather forum, someone from Chicago is agreeing with the EURO on 97L

You want to provide the link to the image?
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The 18z NAM is way South.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1972. surfmom
Surf forecast in relationship to Danielle & Earl
Aurasurf/Micah Weaver
This am the pattern has dug in more and the winds on the EC are 10 plus and getting stronger. Looks a lot choppier than yesterday. Lots of guys will surf that but for the rest it becomes a wait until the wind goes offshore. This is going to happen on Thursday and Friday this week. EC will see 4-6ft clean swell and NW to W winds late in the week once Earl moves north of Florida. So try and go east late week. PR has huge surf today. La Ocho is as big as I've ever seen it breaking all the way across Escambrón. They are about to come under Earl's influence with winds clocking hard NW to S over the next day or two. They are also under a hurricane watch so Earl is a little too close for comfort for the NLI's down there. WFL Gulf has got nada, nada, nada.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm very impressed. The NOAA P-3 aircraft on a research mission is finding a pressure of 968.1mb and are still not at the circulation. The pressure reading also does not appear to be contaminated nor faulty because as they approached the pressure slowly went downwards. We are currently dealing with a rapidly intensifying system.

205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 126 082 143006 009 024 001 00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hey MrstormX, looks like surf will be up this week!


I'd catch some waves, unfortunately I'm in Chicago :P.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Good Evening! What are the early 18Z models saying about Earl and Fiona-to be?
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1967. GetReal
StormW if for some reason Earl was to miss the weakness to its' north, and fail to make that NW turn, would it be fair to say that Earl could actually begin, over the next 12 hours a WSW track into the Caribbean???


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1964. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
000
URNT15 KWBC 292057
NOAA3 WX07A EARL4 HDOB 08 20100829
204800 1710N 05910W 6529 03609 //// +073 //// 209050 054 048 006 21
204830 1711N 05911W 6544 03584 //// +067 //// 216054 058 062 034 21
204900 1713N 05913W 6494 03643 //// +081 //// 220050 051 061 028 21
204930 1714N 05914W 6561 03555 //// +080 //// 220052 055 056 018 21
205000 1716N 05916W 6546 03566 //// +079 //// 220053 053 046 009 21
205030 1718N 05918W 6541 03571 //// +077 //// 217057 059 043 009 25
205100 1719N 05919W 6535 03570 //// +076 //// 216058 062 048 008 21
205130 1720N 05921W 6509 03595 //// +078 //// 219063 065 050 012 21
205200 1721N 05923W 6532 03558 //// +085 //// 220064 066 051 012 21
205230 1723N 05924W 6541 03539 9841 +095 +093 216047 057 050 006 00
205300 1724N 05926W 6560 03510 //// +096 //// 214043 045 052 013 21
205330 1725N 05928W 6465 03621 //// +093 //// 216038 040 050 006 21
205400 1726N 05930W 6451 03632 9796 +102 +094 213036 038 043 003 00
205430 1728N 05932W 6452 03622 9782 +105 +107 215035 036 043 002 00
205500 1729N 05934W 6474 03583 9770 +107 +102 214033 034 045 002 00
205530 1730N 05936W 6454 03597 9742 +116 +110 215031 032 046 003 00
205600 1731N 05937W 6453 03586 9717 +125 +106 218029 030 046 003 00
205630 1733N 05939W 6433 03605 9703 +128 +095 223023 027 033 002 00
205700 1734N 05941W 6422 03607 9683 +136 +081 213015 018 022 001 00
205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 +126 +082 143006 009 024 001 00

Still more data on the way...

968.1 MB, a drop of 10MB, AMAZING!!!!!!
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1962. msphar
Looks like Earl will cross up through 18N about 61W sometime soon tonight. Eastern tip of Puerto Rico will be about 2 degrees West of the track center. Good news for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
URNT15 KWBC 292057
NOAA3 WX07A EARL4 HDOB 08 20100829
204800 1710N 05910W 6529 03609 //// 073 //// 209050 054 048 006 21
204830 1711N 05911W 6544 03584 //// 067 //// 216054 058 062 034 21
204900 1713N 05913W 6494 03643 //// 081 //// 220050 051 061 028 21
204930 1714N 05914W 6561 03555 //// 080 //// 220052 055 056 018 21
205000 1716N 05916W 6546 03566 //// 079 //// 220053 053 046 009 21
205030 1718N 05918W 6541 03571 //// 077 //// 217057 059 043 009 25
205100 1719N 05919W 6535 03570 //// 076 //// 216058 062 048 008 21
205130 1720N 05921W 6509 03595 //// 078 //// 219063 065 050 012 21
205200 1721N 05923W 6532 03558 //// 085 //// 220064 066 051 012 21
205230 1723N 05924W 6541 03539 9841 095 093 216047 057 050 006 00
205300 1724N 05926W 6560 03510 //// 096 //// 214043 045 052 013 21
205330 1725N 05928W 6465 03621 //// 093 //// 216038 040 050 006 21
205400 1726N 05930W 6451 03632 9796 102 094 213036 038 043 003 00
205430 1728N 05932W 6452 03622 9782 105 107 215035 036 043 002 00
205500 1729N 05934W 6474 03583 9770 107 102 214033 034 045 002 00
205530 1730N 05936W 6454 03597 9742 116 110 215031 032 046 003 00
205600 1731N 05937W 6453 03586 9717 125 106 218029 030 046 003 00
205630 1733N 05939W 6433 03605 9703 128 095 223023 027 033 002 00
205700 1734N 05941W 6422 03607 9683 136 081 213015 018 022 001 00
205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 126 082 143006 009 024 001 00

Thought id bump it to the new page lol
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
1960. Walnut
Quoting MrstormX:
000
URNT15 KWBC 292057
NOAA3 WX07A EARL4 HDOB 08 20100829
204800 1710N 05910W 6529 03609 //// +073 //// 209050 054 048 006 21
204830 1711N 05911W 6544 03584 //// +067 //// 216054 058 062 034 21
204900 1713N 05913W 6494 03643 //// +081 //// 220050 051 061 028 21
204930 1714N 05914W 6561 03555 //// +080 //// 220052 055 056 018 21
205000 1716N 05916W 6546 03566 //// +079 //// 220053 053 046 009 21
205030 1718N 05918W 6541 03571 //// +077 //// 217057 059 043 009 25
205100 1719N 05919W 6535 03570 //// +076 //// 216058 062 048 008 21
205130 1720N 05921W 6509 03595 //// +078 //// 219063 065 050 012 21
205200 1721N 05923W 6532 03558 //// +085 //// 220064 066 051 012 21
205230 1723N 05924W 6541 03539 9841 +095 +093 216047 057 050 006 00
205300 1724N 05926W 6560 03510 //// +096 //// 214043 045 052 013 21
205330 1725N 05928W 6465 03621 //// +093 //// 216038 040 050 006 21
205400 1726N 05930W 6451 03632 9796 +102 +094 213036 038 043 003 00
205430 1728N 05932W 6452 03622 9782 +105 +107 215035 036 043 002 00
205500 1729N 05934W 6474 03583 9770 +107 +102 214033 034 045 002 00
205530 1730N 05936W 6454 03597 9742 +116 +110 215031 032 046 003 00
205600 1731N 05937W 6453 03586 9717 +125 +106 218029 030 046 003 00
205630 1733N 05939W 6433 03605 9703 +128 +095 223023 027 033 002 00
205700 1734N 05941W 6422 03607 9683 +136 +081 213015 018 022 001 00
205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 +126 +082 143006 009 024 001 00

Still more data on the way...


968 mb...
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1959. IKE
97L models...



Ensembles...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1958. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1946. surfmom 9:02 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

yup the area sure got busy all of a sudden.

I still like Typhoon Dolphin that one year. ^_^
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Quoting cheetaking:
Wind shear has dropped from 15-20 kts to 10-15 kts. Expect Earl to start getting better organized quickly...

Earl doesn't appear to have a anticyclone above.But it looks like 97L does.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Quoting MrstormX:


Alaska gets hit with strong lows all the time, we don't name em. Europe just has to fell special lol


It's only really the University of Berlin which does it. Not all European meteorological offices bother with it.

The UKMO synoptic charts don't tend to bother.
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Quoting IKE:
Is that a major after it passes near the Leeward Islands?
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1951. Walnut
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
HURRICANE EARL / INVEST 97L SPECIAL UPDATE AUG. 29, 2010 ISSUED 5:00PM.


Thanks for the insightful update!
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000
URNT15 KWBC 292057
NOAA3 WX07A EARL4 HDOB 08 20100829
204800 1710N 05910W 6529 03609 //// 073 //// 209050 054 048 006 21
204830 1711N 05911W 6544 03584 //// 067 //// 216054 058 062 034 21
204900 1713N 05913W 6494 03643 //// 081 //// 220050 051 061 028 21
204930 1714N 05914W 6561 03555 //// 080 //// 220052 055 056 018 21
205000 1716N 05916W 6546 03566 //// 079 //// 220053 053 046 009 21
205030 1718N 05918W 6541 03571 //// 077 //// 217057 059 043 009 25
205100 1719N 05919W 6535 03570 //// 076 //// 216058 062 048 008 21
205130 1720N 05921W 6509 03595 //// 078 //// 219063 065 050 012 21
205200 1721N 05923W 6532 03558 //// 085 //// 220064 066 051 012 21
205230 1723N 05924W 6541 03539 9841 095 093 216047 057 050 006 00
205300 1724N 05926W 6560 03510 //// 096 //// 214043 045 052 013 21
205330 1725N 05928W 6465 03621 //// 093 //// 216038 040 050 006 21
205400 1726N 05930W 6451 03632 9796 102 094 213036 038 043 003 00
205430 1728N 05932W 6452 03622 9782 105 107 215035 036 043 002 00
205500 1729N 05934W 6474 03583 9770 107 102 214033 034 045 002 00
205530 1730N 05936W 6454 03597 9742 116 110 215031 032 046 003 00
205600 1731N 05937W 6453 03586 9717 125 106 218029 030 046 003 00
205630 1733N 05939W 6433 03605 9703 128 095 223023 027 033 002 00
205700 1734N 05941W 6422 03607 9683 136 081 213015 018 022 001 00
205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 126 082 143006 009 024 001 00

968mb Still more data on the way...
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
1949. surfmom
Post 1943 -- I couldn't help but look for a secret mesg....lol... ya never know
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Quoting Relix:
It's right of the forecast points and moving WNW-NW. Seems like it'll pass even farther away. I feel sorry for the people buying fuel and food in droves. My neighbor boarded up. Meh =/. Oh well, tomorrow should be a regular day at PR with some winds, some rain and nothing more.

UPR students go to your classes! XD!
This is good news. But, could cause the ridge to build in sooner, allowing the next storm to move further west. Your thoughts?
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
There is about 6 lists of names for lows each year.


Alaska gets hit with strong lows all the time, we don't name em. Europe just has to fell special lol
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
1946. surfmom
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hello, surfmom =)

I see you're very busy tracking storms in your area of expertise! Gotta love the name Lionrock!!
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1944. xcool


97l
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1942. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
There is about 6 lists of names for lows each year.
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Wind shear has dropped from 15-20 kts to 10-15 kts. Expect Earl to start getting better organized quickly...

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Noted that the NHC path in some advisories last night brought Earl to 72.5 W but now has 71.5 W as the maximum westerly reach of his path.


hey ssig, just in time for some new recon data due in any minute now.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
1938. Relix
Quoting 1992Andrew:
The northern leeward islands was not in the forecast cone until two and half days ago. The NHC has been predicting a significant turn, saving the northern leeward islands. Hasn't happened. Now they have a high chance of receiving a direct hit.
What are the chances the storm fails to make that northwest turn before even Puerto Rico? The Island is not under a hurricane warning. Looks like they should at least jolt the residents there and caution them for possible hurricane force winds.


PR won't feel a breeze it seems. TD winds at max. I think I get to keep my hair! XD!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Sure looks like it!
I wouldn'y have noticed it if u hadn't pointed it out!
Good eye for detail!


That's also a skull and crossbones, so I'd assume it's someone's home.
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1936. GetReal



IMHO it is getting more and more interesting as to if and when Earl makes that NW turn... The door of oppurtunity is not all that wide...
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No ships reports within 320 miles of 41044 in the south atlantic....Imagine that?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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