Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Prgal:


We are keeping a close eye on Earl and people are getting ready.


not everyone believe me. a lot of people are not caring about Earl.
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Quoting Portlight:
How likely is it that we're witnessing a busted forecast? And that the residents of the Leewards are in great peril?
I would hope that they are not in great peril. They are in the cone and should be prepared for any changes to the forecast.
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2533. Drakoen
Radar from the Northern Lesser Antilles
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I hope not. Actually, I don't think the forecast would be busted because even if Earl goes through the northern Leewards he'd still be in the cone wouldn't he?


that makes sense...you're right...it ain't an exact science...
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No one wants Earl to hit land and put lives at risk but its beginning to look like it will.

Anyone disagree that the westward motion is constant now.?

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2530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
07L/H/E/C2
MARK
17.78N/60.15W
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2529. scott39
Earl has been moving WNW for the past 12 hours at 285 degrees. Its hard to notice the N movement because 285 degrees is barely WNW.
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Recon headed back to the shed.

That was the actual reconnaissance aircraft that left 5 hours ago, I'm talking about the NOAA P-3 aircraft.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Portlight:
How likely is it that we're witnessing a busted forecast? And that the residents of the Leewards are in great peril?


I hope not. Actually, I don't think the forecast would be busted because even if Earl goes through the northern Leewards he'd still be in the cone wouldn't he?
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2526. Prgal
Quoting stormpetrol:
I sure feel sorry for those in the northern Leewards, looks like they are in for direct hit from a major hurricane, the biggest mistake people in PR can assume this hurricane will move N of them, we were in the same position/situation with Ivan here in 2004, good thing nearly everyone on the Island here in GRand Cayman were well prepared despite what even our local mets were telling us or for sure despite the devastaion,more than only 2 deaths would have occurred as the officiial total as the results of Ivan.


We are keeping a close eye on Earl and people are getting ready.
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Recon headed back to the shed.



Isn't that old?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
how do you get the menu bar back visible in FF?

Son got the laptop


is the browser fullscreened? if so I would assume you need to press F11, if that fails, then try some of the other Function Keys or right clicking the toolbar and seeing if an option is there. You should be using chrome anyway, firefox is bloated.

Anyway, what's the current coords for Earl, 18N, 60W?
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2522. dmh1026
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow we have almost the same avatar. LOL

Very close LOL...and cool too!!!
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How do you take a person off of your ignore list?
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2520. MZV
Ha Ha, no I don't live in the islands, was just linking the webcam there.

http://www.serendipity.vi/images/vs.jpg
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Quoting DestinJeff:
how do you get the menu bar back visible in FF?

Son got the laptop


Which menu bar? Try hitting F11...
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Quoting DestinJeff:
how do you get the menu bar back visible in FF?

Son got the laptop

Under "view" and "toolbars". You can check the menu bar there to turn it back on.
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How likely is it that we're witnessing a busted forecast? And that the residents of the Leewards are in great peril?
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2516. xcool


look west to me hmmmmmm
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Recon headed back to the shed.



That map shows there was a very slight SW dip there at one point.
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2514. dmdhdms
Quoting DestinJeff:
how do you get the menu bar back visible in FF?

Son got the laptop


Try F11 .... the full screen key .... will turn it off if that is the problem.
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Quoting dmh1026:
Earl looks to be moving wnw...NHC has been right on it for many years...


Wow we have almost the same avatar. LOL
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2512. SQUAWK
Recon headed back to the shed.

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Quoting SQUAWK:


Headed home.


recon just turned south, I dont think they are headed home yet
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2510. dmh1026
Earl looks to be moving wnw...NHC has been right on it for many years...
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Quoting Halon056:
MrstormX can you send me this link?


Yah, here. Somebody told me how to dig deeply through the Navy servers earlier, awesome stuff buried back there! Been using these images on Wikipedia.
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They all said the same thing 25 years ago and guess what the storms hit Florida...let's see what happens this time


Quoting hurricaneman123:


you bring up an excellent point... but i find it highly unlikely that Earl will hit Florida
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Quoting katrinakat5:
968mb = 125mph winds


Thanks, we all missed it the first time.
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2506. bwt1982
Checking in to see how our 3 fish are doing...Danielle is gone, Earl will make a close pass by the islands but in the end will still be a fish and soon to be Fiona...yeah you guessed it, another fish! Gotta love the setup this year in the Atlantic sending all the storms out to sea!!!
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Dispite any west wobble, Earl is on the NHC forecasted path. The center should pass well north or Puerto Rico.

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FEMA Monitors Hurricane Earl, Encourages Everyone To Be Prepared
Families Should Visit Ready.gov to Learn Steps to Prepare for Hurricanes and Severe Weather

Release Date: August 29, 2010
Release Number: HQ-10-161

WASHINGTON - As Hurricane Earl moves toward Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, FEMA is closely monitoring the storm and stands ready to support commonwealth and territorial officials in the region to ensure they have the resources to respond if needed. Earl was upgraded to a hurricane earlier today by the National Hurricane Center. FEMA continues to urge everyone in the region to take steps now to ensure they are prepared for possible severe weather, and remember that hurricanes and tropical storms frequently bring flash flooding as well.

Anyone can visit www.ready.gov to learn more about how to prepare for an emergency.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for both the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques. In addition, the government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the British Virgin Islands. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

"We continue to monitor the storm and stay in close contact with commonwealth and territorial emergency management officials in the region to ensure they have the resources to respond if needed," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "Our priority, as always, is to make sure that we are supporting local efforts as they work to keep residents and communities safe. Hurricane Earl should serve as a reminder that if you have not taken the time to get your family ready for an emergency, now is the time. Visit Ready.gov to learn how."

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Earl will pass near or over the Northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions may spread over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday night. There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect for the United States mainland.

FEMA is taking swift, proactive action to support the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Puerto Rico islands of Culebra and Vieques as they prepare for possible landfall.

FEMA already has staff on the ground in both areas working closely with commonwealth and territorial officials. FEMA has also already deployed an Incident Management Assistance Team (IMAT) to St. Thomas, and has one prepositioned in San Juan, where staff are on watch around the clock monitoring developments.

FEMA also has life-saving and life-sustaining commodities and supplies strategically located across the country to support states in their response, including in the areas of possible impact. These supplies, including water, meals, tarps, blankets, generators and other essential items, can be replenished through the national logistics supply chain.

FEMA is also monitoring Hurricane Danielle, which is located 440 miles east of Bermuda, and a tropical cyclone off the coast of West Africa. According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Danielle has decreased to a Category 1 hurricane and is traveling quickly northeastward, and is forecast to gradually weaken in the next 24 hours.

Swells from Danielle are expected to gradually subside during the next day or so along portions of the United States East Coast. Large waves and dangerous surf from Danielle should diminish near Bermuda today.

While there currently are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for the United States mainland, history has shown that storm tracks can change quickly and unexpectedly.

Individuals and their families should take the time to log on to www.ready.gov to find out how to prepare for hurricanes and other disasters.

The National Weather Service remains the source of official severe weather watches and warnings, including flash flooding which can take only a few minutes to develop in the case of heavy rains.

FEMA encourages all individuals in the region to listen to NOAA Weather Radio and their local news to monitor for severe weather updates, and to follow the directions provided by their local officials.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

###

Last Modified: Sunday, 29-Aug-2010 17:30:03
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MZV, you live in a beautiful place. Is that cam on all the time? If so do you have a link
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I'm hoping this more westward movement is only a jog and a true WNW motion will return... if not watch out PR.
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Quoting leo305:


there's shear plowing into the north eastern side of the system right now though


A little but it is decreasing by the minute as Danielle's circulation moves off to the NE. Look at how the cirrus clouds flowing in off the NE side have lessened in the last 3 hours and watch Earl build some higher tops in that same area gradually. In 6 hours there will be good outflow channels available in all 4 quadrants.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Night engulfs Earl.

MrstormX can you send me this link?
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2499. msphar
Earl's is on course for the 20N 65W intersection. Looks good, will miss most of the islands in that general area with just glancing blows on the southwestern side of the storm.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
recon observations confirm that the storm is moving just north of due west

recon is more reliable than any satellite loop, whether it has lat/lon lines up or the tropical forecast points
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C-130 headed into Earl.

Should be there soon.
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Quoting MZV:
Still just a pretty sunset at St.John's in the US Virgin Islands:



That is really a fantastic picture!
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2495. Ryuujin
Mimic is showing a small jog to the SW, but he's been on a decent WNW track for a little while, but nothing like what they've been predicting in a huge curving sweep. But we'll see. I feel for the peoples in the leewards and PR tho. Stay safe down there peeps.
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2494. leo305
Quoting stormpetrol:
I sure feel sorry for those in the northern Leewards, looks like they are in for direct hit from a major hurricane, the biggest mistake people in PR can assume this hurricane will move N of them, we were in the same position/situation with Ivan here in 2004, good thing nearly everyone on the Island here in GRand Cayman were well prepared despite what even our local mets were telling us or for sure despite the devastaion,more than only 2 deaths would have occurred as the officiial total as the results of Ivan.


that's what scares me.. the moment they say "its not coming" people start to no longer care, and there goes the preperation, then if it comes unexpecedly what then? More so that this is a potential CAT 3 hurricane..
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


north of due west, like you said it looks like it is moving between the two
Thats what I thought... Could be just wobbling as its growing then correct?
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
Night engulfs Earl.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm pretty sure he is relying on the NHC and NWS. Anyhow, I told him to prepare for hurricane conditions, which is decent information. I also gave him my opinion, which he asked for.
Agreed
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
It gets very very tiresome seeing this bickering here and anytime someone sees evidence of a westward movement they are called westcasters, ridiculous





I see some Westward movement too
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Quoting flhurricanesurvivor:
i have a question in regard to the Heber Box. It says that most of the hurricanes of 110 mph or greater that hit florida pass through this box. it does not however say that most storms that pass through this box hit florida. Is that a fair assumption?
yes, that is correct. The theory is if a major makes landfall in SFla, look back at its path as more likely than not it has passed thru one of Hebert's boxes.
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Quoting Flyairbird:
The think it is moving between due West and Wnw..

What is that then north od due west and south of WNW


north of due west, like you said it looks like it is moving between the two
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2486. dader
Quoting MZV:
Still just a pretty sunset at St.John's in the US Virgin Islands:



Amazing
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I don't think you should be giving your chances of hurricane force winds out to the public right now...

On this blog during times when a system is affecting land, we need to stop our amateur forecasting and solely make observations and relay gov info.
I'm pretty sure he is relying on the NHC and NWS. Anyhow, I told him to prepare for hurricane conditions, which is decent information. I also gave him my opinion, which he asked for.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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