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Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

Hurricane Danielle continues on its steady northwesterly path towards Bermuda, as a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. However, the hurricane has had its troubles this morning--Danielle wrapped a significant amount of dry air into its core between 4am - 8am EDT this morning, and Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops warmed late this morning, indicating that this dry air reduced the vigor of Danielle's thunderstorms. Danielle has managed to quickly mix out most of this dry air and reform its broken eyewall early this afternoon, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1.) We'll get a better idea of Danielle's intensity on Friday afternoon, when the first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled. The storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle. A huge thunderstorm has blown up on the west side of the eyewall, giving the hurricane a rather lopsided appearance.

Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Earl, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle's. As Earl enters the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is steering Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwestward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank has moved away away from the Mexican coast, and does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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3626. PensacolaDoug
10:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 936
3625. palmasdelrio
6:24 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Can anyone say where the coc of Earl is right now? It doesn't seem to be moving toward the west anymore but rather wnw.
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
3624. CrazyDuke
6:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Wishcasting/fishcasting are pejorative terms used to accuse someone of one of essentially two "sides" of the same logical fallacy: Wishful Thinking They are often used in an ad-hominem attacks on this board, but not always.

Appeal to consequences is also often used in conjunction with this; Some variation of "You all want people to die!" is one of the most common.

A "fish storm" is a term that evolved out of comments that the major consequence of such a storm is only that it would spin a bunch of fish around, a fish spinner, i.e. not a threat to anything important (ignoring maritime and avionic interests).

...And, before I forget for the forth time before hitting post: Happy birthday StormW!
Member Since: February 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
3623. flsky
4:48 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting rljack:
Happy Birthday Storm. Thank you for everything you do for us wundergrounders! You are awesome!

Just out of curiosity, how did everyone know it was Storm's birthday??
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2283
3622. hcubed
4:42 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting CaribBoy:
A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT


Oh noes! It's forecast to enter the dreaded Hebert box!
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
3621. palmasdelrio
4:35 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting wxhatt:


Was Just Wishful Thinking...


Yeah. Me too. I don't want to go through another Hugo or George.
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
3620. wxhatt
4:33 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting palmasdelrio:


How can Earl be kept out to sea if he's pushed to the wsw. Seems that if this happens the path would be toward the islands, wouldn't it?


Was Just Wishful Thinking...
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 932
3619. palmasdelrio
4:31 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting wxhatt:


I see that, maybe all the High Pressure Systems will get together and put a blockade on these storms and keep them out to sea hopefully!


How can Earl be kept out to sea if he's pushed to the wsw. Seems that if this happens the path would be toward the islands, wouldn't it?
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
3618. wxhatt
4:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
** New Blog **
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 932
3617. FloridaTigers
4:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
I'm thinking Danielle will soon undergo EWRC.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
3616. wunderkidcayman
3:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Good morning guys wow Danielle is a CAT 4

hmm also what I am seeing is that the high north of Earl is pushing W-WSW and trying to meeting with the other just west of Danielle this may shift Earl WSW

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15119
3615. caribouqueen
3:55 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Thanks for the explanations! I don't have enough knowledge to predict a storm path, I just don't want them anywhere near me. I had damage from Charlie, Frances, and Jean and that was my first year living here and I have never been so scared in all my life.
Member Since: August 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
3614. Claudette1234
3:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Time: 15:43:30Z
Coordinates: 26.8333N 60.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.5 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,953 meters (~ 9,688 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 979.4 mb (~ 28.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 0° at 73 knots (From the N at ~ 83.9 mph)
Air Temp: 11.3°C* (~ 52.3°F*)
Dew Pt: ////°C* (~ °F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 74 knots (~ 85.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 64 knots (~ 73.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 567
3613. AllStar17
3:40 PM GMT on August 27, 2010


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5373
3612. Josihua2
3:33 PM GMT on August 27, 2010

Quoting apocalyps:


I agree,love you all.Is it not strange danielle just jumped to the west
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3611. Josihua2
3:29 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting apocalyps:


I agree,love you all.Is it not strange danielle just jumped to the west

come on you have been a part of the blog for 3 years u should be able to answer your own question.
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3610. rljack
3:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Happy Birthday Storm. Thank you for everything you do for us wundergrounders! You are awesome!
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
3609. 69Viking
3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3512
3608. FloridaTigers
3:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Earl appears to be losing his elongated structure, which will aid in any attempts to strengthen.


Damn, I walked late into class :\
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
3607. apocalyps
3:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Josihua2:

thank you i agree.


I agree,love you all.Is it not strange danielle just jumped to the west
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
3606. hydrus
3:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:
We interupt the Wishing Storm a Happy Birthday Blog to bring you the 11AM updated track for Danielle:



Now back to wishing Storm a Happy Birthday....
Good morning Destin Jeff. The tropics are starting to get very busy. This is a graph showing when the actual peak of hurricane season occurs.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 26870
3605. tkeith
3:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting CaribBoy:
A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT


hmmm...thats not good
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8962
3604. Josihua2
3:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Relix:


You are just giving him attention. It's impossible (0%!) that Danielle impacts any of those states.
true and duly noted!
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3603. Prgal
3:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
new blog
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
3601. Josihua2
3:21 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting NASA101:


Apocalyps:

You have been making some real nonsensical remarks on here - pure wishcasting without any reason/facts! YOU are a buffoon SIR!!!

thank you i agree.
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3600. SouthDadeFish
3:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Earl appears to be losing his elongated structure, which will aid in any attempts to strengthen.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2449
3599. CaribBoy
3:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7110
3598. canehater1
3:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
I went to bed last night after the 11PM advisory came out for D.--At that time after
watching the Sat. loops, and reading the NHC
between the lines fcst saying they wanted to
"wait and see"..I had a feeling D. was going past Cat 3..Thank goodness she's fcst to hook a right!
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1214
3597. tkeith
3:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting SaintPatrick:


did they move the state of texas to the middle of the atlantic?
nah...they been talkin about seceeding(check spelling) from the union but I dont think they have re-located geographically ;)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8962
3596. Relix
3:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Josihua2:

come on there is like a 20% chance(if even so high) that Hurricane Danielle will hit Florida or Texas.


You are just giving him attention. It's impossible (0%!) that Danielle impacts any of those states.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
3595. JadeInAntigua
3:18 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG chances that Earl affects the NE carib are increasing.... center is down at 15.7N!!!


Yeah, the 11am has made me feeling a little more uneasy.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
3594. CyclonicVoyage
3:18 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG chances that Earl affects the NE carib are increasing.... center is down at 15.7N!!!


Residents of the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico should REALLY think about tidying up some plans this weekend.

Earl's forecast to be 115mph at that time and in my opinion, further southward adjustments will be needed.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3591. JRRP
3:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6956
3590. SouthDadeFish
3:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting JRRP:
Pretty far south on Fiona's track....
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2449
3589. ElConando
3:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:


Dats a cane right dere.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 4248
3588. SQUAWK
3:16 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Now that qualifies as a cluster!!!

Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
3586. SaintPatrick
3:16 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting apocalyps:
Florida and texas are not out of the woods with Danielle.


did they move the state of texas to the middle of the atlantic?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
3585. JRRP
3:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6956
3584. Josihua2
3:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting apocalyps:
Florida and texas are not out of the woods with Danielle.

come on there is like a 20% chance(if even so high) that Hurricane Danielle will hit Florida or Texas.
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3583. LADobeLady
3:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting caribouqueen:
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...


You will learn there are all kind of casters on here, fishcaster is someone who always says the storm is going out to sea.

Wishcasters want the storms to come to where they're at.

Nolacasters are people who always say the bad ones are going to NOLA and there is usually numerous Katrina references.

FLcasters are the same as NOLAcasters just change it from LA to FL

I'm a fish wishcaster, I want them all to go out to sea.
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
3582. CyclonicVoyage
3:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Relix:


Storm I see you said you expect the track to continue like this for the next 72 hours. Earl just dropped .2N (COC relocation???). Do you think it does have a good chance of at least a direct impact in the VI and PR? I said it would be unlikely yesterday but the due west movement and latitude dropping has me a bit worried. And with Danielle moving sightly more West than expected the ridge will keep closing and push Earl towards our area. What do you say Mr. Party Man? (it's your birthday! Heck you shouldn't be working haha)


As expected Relix

ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3581. BLee2333
3:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting caribouqueen:
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...


One that stays out to sea. Doesn't affect land...

1 fish, 2 fish, red fish, blue fish!
Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
3580. ElConando
3:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting caribouqueen:
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...


A fish storm is a storm that goes out to sea without affecting any landmasses. A wish caster is someone who states something is going to happen with a tropical system without any evidence what so ever.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 4248
3578. caribouqueen
3:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...
Member Since: August 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
3577. ElConando
3:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Great read Storm btw :).
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 4248
3576. srada
3:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:
We interupt the Wishing Storm a Happy Birthday Blog to bring you the 11AM updated track for Danielle:



Now back to wishing Storm a Happy Birthday....


okay..so it looks about 63W would be the tell all according to the NHC map if Danielle deviates and misses the trough..
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 775

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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