Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

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Hurricane Danielle continues on its steady northwesterly path towards Bermuda, as a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. However, the hurricane has had its troubles this morning--Danielle wrapped a significant amount of dry air into its core between 4am - 8am EDT this morning, and Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops warmed late this morning, indicating that this dry air reduced the vigor of Danielle's thunderstorms. Danielle has managed to quickly mix out most of this dry air and reform its broken eyewall early this afternoon, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1.) We'll get a better idea of Danielle's intensity on Friday afternoon, when the first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled. The storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle. A huge thunderstorm has blown up on the west side of the eyewall, giving the hurricane a rather lopsided appearance.

Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Earl, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle's. As Earl enters the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is steering Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwestward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank has moved away away from the Mexican coast, and does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mydiapersarefull:
The latest models have cooled on numbers for Danielle as she takes a quicker track from the coast. We're looking in the range of 7-10ft swell in Florida, 6-9ft Outer Banks, 4-6ft New Jersey, 5-8ft New England, 7-10ft Nova Scotia. These are potential swell sizes, expect surf face heights to be potentially bigger at the better spots and as always these numbers are subject to change.


And the ECSC this week!!! My boards all waxed already i cant wait!!!
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Steering just updated.

Danielle should resume the heading that would take it through the break in the ridge. The difference between this and 3 hrs ago which I posted a few minutes ago is that the high that had reinforced and was impeding movement to the NW in the short term appears to be fracturing as evidenced by the gap now visible in the steering regime.

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Danielle is diving underneath it.West she goes.
Amazing but predictable
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Quoting MahFL:
The TFC have her at a 3 too, and she's a 4.


It's probably due to the knots.

130mph and 135mph have the same number when rounded. 113kts for 130, 117kts for 135. 115kts either way.

Hence the occasional confusion.
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3372. NASA101
Hmmmm, So no one is picking up on 00Z EURO with future Fiona hitting FL/GA with Cat4/5 winds!?

would have thought that this blog would go mad after seeing that...!? :)
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3370. GetReal
Quoting kmanislander:
Danielle trying to work around the Western periphery of the high




That will be great, as long as Danielle doesn't decide to ride underneath the eastern periphery of the high to the west!!!

Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
danielle is going to be close to the eastcoast.
Everyone thinks danielle wil not recurve next two days.
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Storm,

I wish you a very happy birthday. Have a wonderful birthday!

what a birthday you have! 1 major hurricane, another major hurricane to be and to be Tropical Storm Fiona. Wow!
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A very happy birthday, Storm. Thank you for all of the education here!! Enjoy your day.
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3366. MahFL
The TFC have her at a 3 too, and she's a 4.
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3364. GetReal
Danielle may just have a preference for the yellow line on the left....
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Big 'ol flareup in GOM, south of LA. Do any models suggest something could be brewing?
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It looks like the GOMEX may miss these guys and gals that are lining up in the atlantic. Is that something we should continue to see?
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Quoting GetReal:



I guess someone forgot to tell Danielle that she was supposed to tow the company line!!!
That my friend is another shift to the west. I dont want to see that but it is what it is...
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Danielle trying to work around the Western periphery of the high

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Happy Birthday Storm. 40 only comes around once, so you better enjoy it!
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Quoting angiest:


I would have done it anyway. I really don't see a reason not to do

Bermuda Weather website has this:

High pressure brings mainly fine conditions for the moment. Winds then strengthen tomorrow and into Sunday as Danielle moves by about 200 nautical miles to our east. Skies become increasingly cloudy with showers developing. Large swells will develop, especially along South Shore. Danielle remains a potential threat. so.
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Quoting CTSkywatcher:


I was wondering about the A/B setup. If that does shift the only protection the CONUS has are the trofs that keep on coming....but those will take a break at some point also.

I hope CT treated you well. It has been gloomy for a week, but now it's back to very nice weather. Very very dry here. High fire danger in a state that is 60% trees.


Was up there in Conn dropping my Daughter off at Yale on Saturday......As you know, the weather was gorgeous on Sat and Sun up there with low 80's during the day a nice low 70's at night....My Wife (already missing her) is on a flight back up there this morning...... :)
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3355. 900MB
Happy Birthday Storm! For your birthday I got you a Cat 4 storm and several AOIs to watch :)
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Happy Birthday Storm!
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3353. Relix
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


As we were discussing last night, it's going to be a close one I think. Should be very clear by tomorrow or Sunday.


Yeah. Wanted to see if something has changed. This appeared in my Facebook:

PUERTO RICO HAVE TO PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THE DIRECT OR INDIRECT TROPICAL STORM EARL.............................PUERTO RICO HAY QUE PREPARARSE PARA UN POSIBLE IMPACTO DIRECTO O INDIRECTO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EARL

It comes from a reliable group so that info should be official and come from somewhere else.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


...kind of like what you feel between your ears.


LOL!!
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The latest models have cooled on numbers for Danielle as she takes a quicker track from the coast. We're looking in the range of 7-10ft swell in Florida, 6-9ft Outer Banks, 4-6ft New Jersey, 5-8ft New England, 7-10ft Nova Scotia. These are potential swell sizes, expect surf face heights to be potentially bigger at the better spots and as always these numbers are subject to change.
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3350. angiest
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Trop Storm watches out for Bermuda at 11am? i mean with the movement west you might have to think about it just to be safe?


I would have done it anyway. I really don't see a reason not to do so.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
3348. GetReal



I guess someone forgot to tell Danielle that she was supposed to tow the company line!!!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
3347. LemieT
Quoting StormW:


Happy Birthday Senior Chief. Hope your birthday goes as superbly for you as your forecasts go with us. :-) Look at the tropics, perhaps the most interesting pregame show since 2005.
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In next statement nhc will probably say the truth.Danielle will not recurve the next two days.
She continues to going west.Infact there is nothing out there to recurve danielle.
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Trop Storm watches out for Bermuda at 11am? i mean with the movement west you might have to think about it just to be safe?
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3344. angiest
Satellite indicates the first cirrus outflow is about to reach Bermuda.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Relix:
Any news for Earl and Puerto Rico? I am out and can't properly browse the site for past pages. So any quick details are appreciated!

Happy Birthday as well Storm!


Do not worry Relix, my fan is in high pushing it away and the et from El Yunque starter their oscillator.

Take Care if not
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Danielle is doing a little free thinking this AM I see....Doesn't she know she was told where to go? lol
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Quoting DarIvy959810:

Earl may passé at least 100 miles north of the Islands but is the northern Islands who watch it carefully


Your correct, maybe more, maybe less.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Morning Relix,

Status quo for now, no real changes from the NHC. A few models are bringing it closer to you.

06Z GFS


Earl may passé at least 100 miles north of the Islands but is the northern Islands who watch it carefully
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Happy Birthday StormW ! You are a very special person. Less than .28% of the people in the world were born on this day!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning All; back from travel and vacation over the past week in Conn and Orlando.....Looks like Klotzbach's observational paper on "storm clusters" during the peak of hurricane seasons "verifies" nicely this year and is in full swing at the moment. Now the question will be how long will this cluster last, and, when the next one occur once this one dies down........We will all have to wait for the answer to that question and most importantly, when/if the current A-B high ridging will shift and allow for more westward development and trajectories.......It might be a long season if we get another cluster in September going into October me thinks.


I was wondering about the A/B setup. If that does shift the only protection the CONUS has are the trofs that keep on coming....but those will take a break at some point also.

I hope CT treated you well. It has been gloomy for a week, but now it's back to very nice weather. Very very dry here. High fire danger in a state that is 60% trees.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Morning Relix,

Status quo for now, no real changes from the NHC. A few models are bringing it closer to you.

06Z GFS



As we were discussing last night, it's going to be a close one I think. Should be very clear by tomorrow or Sunday.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3335. angiest
Danielle is looking beautiful today. Hopefully she stops that westward motion at just a wobble. Getting close to 60W almost a degree south of the forecast point.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting CaribBoy:
Good morning everyone. I see the GFS is even closer to the Northern Leeward islands on the 6z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_084m.gif


Interesting isnt it
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Sorry that was for gator23
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Quoting Relix:
Any news for Earl and Puerto Rico? I am out and can't properly browse the site for past pages. So any quick details are appreciated!

Happy Birthday as well Storm!


Morning Relix,

Status quo for now, no real changes from the NHC. A few models are bringing it closer to you.

06Z GFS

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3330. SeaMule
everything will trend more west.

Danielle will suprise you all....she ain't gonna hook like that.....and Earl will be a definite threat to US......

gonna be a long Sept and Oct. ouch
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3329. weld
Happy birthday Storm. You get my age birthdays are kinda like hemorrhoids.
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HAHAHAHAHA
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


It looks like she still is but by not as much. Instead of a jump its more of a waddle.


....or maybe a westward wiggle wobble waddle.
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Poof grasshopper!!

right back atcha, mc-nada!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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