Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

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Hurricane Danielle continues on its steady northwesterly path towards Bermuda, as a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. However, the hurricane has had its troubles this morning--Danielle wrapped a significant amount of dry air into its core between 4am - 8am EDT this morning, and Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops warmed late this morning, indicating that this dry air reduced the vigor of Danielle's thunderstorms. Danielle has managed to quickly mix out most of this dry air and reform its broken eyewall early this afternoon, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1.) We'll get a better idea of Danielle's intensity on Friday afternoon, when the first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled. The storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle. A huge thunderstorm has blown up on the west side of the eyewall, giving the hurricane a rather lopsided appearance.

Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Earl, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle's. As Earl enters the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is steering Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwestward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank has moved away away from the Mexican coast, and does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Hi everyone,

Back from a short get a way weekend.. and I see we have real "cape verdi" systems out there.


and about this new feature.. that tells us how many blogs/posts we have had and how many comments.

just from my short look, it appears Patrap is the King of the comments!

and Taz not far behind; however, keep in mind that first year in 2005, Taz had about 10 handles...but he has kept his Taz for 4 yrs now.


I promise I do not know where my 32,889 comments have come from in 5 years! LOL now I have probably had 215 personal blogs first one in Dec 2005.


It appears we will be storm watching a lot together in the near future.
Wonder if they are all going to curve out to sea like the models are showing these???



very interesting..

Hi everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not evere storm is going to be a fish you guys
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
1124. pottery
Quoting Bayside:
Clearly this highlighted wave is going to be a fish... this is how we play this game here right?


heheheh---good one.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24909
Quoting DestinJeff:


Clearly.
The clearness is unbelievably clear.

Clearly.

Clearly.

Ummmmmmmmm, yeah, clearly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bayside:
Clearly this highlighted wave is going to be a fish... this is how we play this game here right?


There ya go. Thats Igor. ;)
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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Quoting Bijou:
Lived here (NOLA) too long - I see "Earl" and my head sees it spelled o-i-l. Yep, my neighbor uses "Earl of Olay", and I'm a month behind on an earl change.

Here's hoping that "Earl" and the Gulf "earl" spill won't get a chance to mix.

Earl has a chance to go over some waters heated up to a berl. Those warm waters tend to act like high-grade octane to developing storms. (my fiancee is from Arabi, LA)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1118. JLPR2
Earl is supposed to reach that far west, that far south? O.o
The islands might be in for a surprise if it doesn't do that curve towards the NW as hard as it is shown here.

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1117. Asta
Quoting pottery:

Just what I was loopking for.....
(for my Lady, not me!)

But you should remove that fast, or you might get a ban...

too late... ah well- so much for a little fashion humor to relieve hurricane tension..
Nite all- looks like it is going to be a rainy commute..
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1116. xcool

^^^^^^^^^
more strongwaves ouch.


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
1114. Bayside
Clearly this highlighted wave is going to be a fish... this is how we play this game here right?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ths is the 12z gfs ouch


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
1112. JLPR2
Quoting jeffs713:

No, it won't be sitting still long enough to gain a warm core. conversion from extratropical to tropical takes 2-3 days.


Ah I see, thanks!
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Earl might be the storm that gives us problems.
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1109. xcool
oceanblues32:

to far out to know.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1108. pottery
Quoting Asta:
Gotta get me some of these this season...


Just what I was loopking for.....
(for my Lady, not me!)

But you should remove that fast, or you might get a ban...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24909
Why are we prognosticating 97L already?
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1106. Bijou
Lived here (NOLA) too long - I see "Earl" and my head sees it spelled o-i-l. Yep, my neighbor uses "Earl of Olay", and I'm a month behind on an earl change.

Here's hoping that "Earl" and the Gulf "earl" spill won't get a chance to mix.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy cow man Earl the pearl could be a cat 4. A potential Fiona may take a few days to initialize. Most of the heat/energy is in the Caribbean and GOM but, too much mid lat weather will act as a shield for the time being.
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Quoting JLPR2:
So question:

You guys think this extra-tropical low could try to gain tropical characteristics?


No, it won't be sitting still long enough to gain a warm core. conversion from extratropical to tropical takes 2-3 days.
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1102. GetReal
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Quoting oceanblues32:
Hello everyone does anyone in here think earl or invest 97l could impact southeast florida in anyway?


Yes I do, and then the gulf.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models shifted slightly to the left for Earl I see.
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1098. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
07L/TS/E/CX MARK 15.06N/38.53W06L/H/D/C2 MARK 25.25N/56.98W
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Quoting Cotillion:




From the Wiki, so normal caveats apply, but:

'Hurricane Debby made landfall in Dooega on Achill Island during the morning of September 16. Shortly thereafter, it had moved into the Irish mainland over County Mayo. Debby re-emerged into the extreme northeast Atlantic before being declared extratropical. The remnants of Debby tracked along the coast of Norway before entering Russia and dissipating on September 19.

When Hurricane Debbie made landfall in Ireland on September 16, it became the only known tropical cyclone to do so while tropical.'


I read some data months ago in where I find DEBBIE was extratropical beafore making land in Ireland...
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1096. markot
will some of you plz read 5 pm nhc discussion...earl will not be a fish, im so tired of seeing that. when you have no facts to back it up. we are going to have a very strong hurricane on our hands. a strong ridge is going to build in...thnxxx.
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Updated ACE figures (5p.m EDT, August 26, 2010) has us at:

01L (Alex): 6.7825
03L (Bonnie): 0.3675
04L (Colin): 1.9450
06L (Danielle): 8.79
07L (Earl): 0.725
--------------------------------
Total: 18.61
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Quoting reedzone:
Both Earl and 97L needs to be closely monitered!



yup


YAY we dont have too hot ok any more
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Puerto Rico are we ready for Earl?Link
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Both Earl and 97L needs to be closely monitered!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Is the track of 97L going to be westward towards the Carribean, or northwestward towards Bermuda/recurve?



right now westward towards the Carribean,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
1088. BDAwx
Quoting canehater1:


I wonder how the real fish feel about it?


in Bermuda we use shark liver oil to tell if a hurricane is coming - i think the fish can sense it and they swim away...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Calling Earl a fish at this point shows a total lack of knowledge of meteorology

It gets very tiresome when some only contribute by saying things like that


Kudos to both of you! I expected models to shift west in time, guess this afternoon is that time. Happens with alot of Cape Verde storms, models start out east, then shift west.
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1086. pottery
Quoting oceanblues32:
Hello everyone does anyone in here think earl or invest 97l could impact southeast florida in anyway?

If anyone gives you a 'yes' or a 'no' to your question, they are only guessing at this point.
Best to keep an eye on things and you will get all the info you need, right here.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24909
97L needs to be watch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Is the track of 97L going to be westward towards the Carribean, or northwestward towards Bermuda/recurve?
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Link
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Calling Earl a fish at this point is a bit premature, a lot can change in the steering pattern 5 days into the future. In other words, to me, at this point, Bermuda has just a great of a chance as has the eastern seaboard of getting an Earl landfall.


Couldn't agree with you more!
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1082. xcool
oceanblues32 Lots of uncertainty that far out to know best guess try to keep update what go on tropical.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1081. Asta

How Low can will they go under that High ridge??

LIMBO ROCK
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Quoting reedzone:
Well what do ya know.. Earls models are shifting west, surprise surprise! :P



lol yuper
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Calling Earl a fish at this point is a bit premature, a lot can change in the steering pattern 5 days into the future. In other words, to me, at this point, Bermuda has just a great of a chance as has the eastern seaboard of getting an Earl landfall.


Calling Earl a fish at this point shows a total lack of knowledge of meteorology

It gets very tiresome when some only contribute by saying things like that
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1078. srada
Hello Everyone,

Just checking in after a long day at work..I see Earl might be taking that west track unlike Danielle..and predicting to become a major..not good at all..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Calling Earl a fish at this point is premature. A lot can change in the steering pattern 5 days into the future. In other words, to me, at this point, Bermuda has just a great of a chance as has the eastern seaboard of getting an Earl landfall.
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1076. pottery
Heh!!
Just had a long look at the East Atl, and Western Africa.
Plenty of Action coming.
2 more named systems in August?
Or three?

The above excludes the Caribbean and the Gulf..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24909

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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