Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

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Hurricane Danielle continues on its steady northwesterly path towards Bermuda, as a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. However, the hurricane has had its troubles this morning--Danielle wrapped a significant amount of dry air into its core between 4am - 8am EDT this morning, and Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops warmed late this morning, indicating that this dry air reduced the vigor of Danielle's thunderstorms. Danielle has managed to quickly mix out most of this dry air and reform its broken eyewall early this afternoon, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1.) We'll get a better idea of Danielle's intensity on Friday afternoon, when the first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled. The storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle. A huge thunderstorm has blown up on the west side of the eyewall, giving the hurricane a rather lopsided appearance.

Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Earl, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle's. As Earl enters the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is steering Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwestward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank has moved away away from the Mexican coast, and does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pottery:
Barotropic,
I think that quite a few people here study the 'official' forecasts, and come up with their own forecasts based on that.
Then they claim they never look at models.
It's a Credibility thing, sometimes on here.


Yes, I think you are right.
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Quoting Relix:


Indeed. Well I am officially worried haha. Didn't think much but ALL my satellites were outdated so I was thinking the COC had relocated 16.5N and relaxed. Now I update all of them and see this and its like... wow, I will actually have to shave my head!


I think it was JLPR who mentioned Susan Soltero saying we were pretty much on the clear with Earl earlier this week. Told ya we had to run to the nearest store for batteries. ;) Guess she's changing her tune right now! I'm having Georges deja-vu when it comes to her forecasting.
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Quoting pottery:
Barotropic,
I think that quite a few people here study the 'official' forecasts, and come up with their own forecasts based on that.
Then they claim they never look at models.
It's a Credibility thing, sometimes on here.


I'll typically use a blend of the models, as well as my own thinking, based upon analysis of other data. Seems to work well, most of the time.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


A little more, even more Sat & Sunday.

Okay thanks!
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2372. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:


Errm...
Olga in 07 was our last direct hit, but she was a Subtropical storm so the wind ratio wasn't a problem. XD


True that haha, didn't even count it XD

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2371. Gearsts
Quoting alpha992000:


Ouch! The sound of that is terrifying. Georges was a Cat 3 when it hit and darn thing was scary as heck, don't think I'll survive a 4 or 5 without at least a proper anxiety & panic attack right in the middle of it all. Not nice.
georges was a cat 2 110mph.
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2370. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


You should be used by it then =P. It's a tropical island in the middle of the Atlantic. We are prone to get hit by something at least every 5 years or so. 2004 was our last direct hit with Jeanne. Dean, Frances, Fay, etc etc passed close. 2010 is poised to be the year PR gets another direct hit by a Hurricane. Everyone's expecting it. What would surprise me more was if one didn't get us this year. Didn't think it would be Earl but let's see how tomorrow pans out!


Errm...
Olga in 07 was our last direct hit, but she was a Subtropical storm so the wind ratio wasn't a problem. XD
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2369. pottery
Barotropic,
I think that quite a few people here study the 'official' forecasts, and come up with their own forecasts based on that.
Then they claim they never look at models.
It's a Credibility thing, sometimes on here.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Of course.
He can go straight, or curve right, or even left.
Probabilities say he'll curve right, but there's no normal.....no right or wrong forecast.
These things have a mind of their own.

I asked earlier if the trough was still enough to turn Earl and that is what my question was about . I dont know the link to look at the trough, I realize of course it can go straight or west or north or east.
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2367. Relix


Hm... organizing too fast for my tastes!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Left to right: Earl, Fiona (?), Gaston (?)

If Danielle can hold it togther until, say, Monday evening or Tuesday, we could have four named systems at once.




that map olny update evere 6 too 8hr so that map is old
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Quoting TheCname:
My question is why wasn't Gaston retired and replaced after all the flooding rains it caused here in Richmond, VA? Cars and trucks was floating down the strret like toys. So, I thought Gaston was no longer a name.


Perhaps the US didn't request its retirement?
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Left to right: Earl, Fiona (?), Gaston (?)

If Danielle can hold it togther until, say, Monday evening or Tuesday, we could have four named systems at once.

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2363. Relix
Quoting alpha992000:


Ouch! The sound of that is terrifying. Georges was a Cat 3 when it hit and darn thing was scary as heck, don't think I'll survive a 4 or 5 without at least a proper anxiety & panic attack right in the middle of it all. Not nice.


You should be used by it then =P. It's a tropical island in the middle of the Atlantic. We are prone to get hit by something at least every 5 years or so. 2004 was our last direct hit with Jeanne. Dean, Frances, Fay, etc etc passed close. 2010 is poised to be the year PR gets another direct hit by a Hurricane. Everyone's expecting it. What would surprise me more was if one didn't get us this year. Didn't think it would be Earl but let's see how tomorrow pans out!
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am geting there
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Quoting txsweetpea:

So we'll know tomorrow?


A little more, even more Sat & Sunday.
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2360. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Well, the northern islands are in the cone of error so take it for what it is. Average 5 day error is 250 to 300NM


Navy says 325nm to my NE, so those 25nm of confidence aren't helping me out. :\
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If anyone should need a laugh tonight...
Today while I was out and about I came across an older issue of our local independent newspaper which was highlighting the oil spill in the gulf. There was an article in there describing what they called a "firecane", a hurricane that picked up oil, then ignited (via lightning I guess?) over land burning things in its path. This was presented as a legitamate concern. Golly, I am glad they capped that thing before we ended up with a firecane! ;oP
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Gaston's probably coming soon enough as well.
My question is why wasn't Gaston retired and replaced after all the flooding rains it caused here in Richmond, VA? Cars and trucks was floating down the strret like toys. So, I thought Gaston was no longer a name.
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Quoting txsweetpea:

Is there anyway that Earl CANT recurve?
Of course.
He can go straight, or curve right, or even left.
Probabilities say he'll curve right, but there's no normal.....no right or wrong forecast.
These things have a mind of their own.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alpha992000:


Ouch! The sound of that is terrifying. Georges was a Cat 3 when it hit and darn thing was scary as heck, don't think I'll survive a 4 or 5 without at least a proper anxiety & panic attack right in the middle of it all. Not nice.


Well, the northern islands are in the cone of error so take it for what it is. Average 5 day error is 250 to 300NM
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2355. xcool


here COME 98L JMO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15707
Quoting Relix:


Agreed. I said it a few posts before. Should get its game together in the next 12-24 hours.



thats not a vary good way too find out where the center is with a storm not a vary good map and all so can be a little off
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


This is a tough one sweetpea. Danielle speeds up, then slows down, Earl at 17mph. It's all going to depend on 2 things 1. How fast Danielle gets up and out and 2. The speed of Earl as I believe the center is becoming clear @ 15.5

So we'll know tomorrow?
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Quoting barotropic:

Can't speak for anyone, but I think some may use the projected steering layers output by the models to build their own analysis.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I've had some time to do some analysis tonight and man, it's going to be close. I know your in PR, you should have 2 eyes peeled on Earl, forecast CAT4 by then.


Ouch! The sound of that is terrifying. Georges was a Cat 3 when it hit and darn thing was scary as heck, don't think I'll survive a 4 or 5 without at least a proper anxiety & panic attack right in the middle of it all. Not nice.
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Quoting txsweetpea:

Is there anyway that Earl CANT recurve?


Danielle holds that key my dear, short time will tell.
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2349. pottery
Quoting MechEngMet:
Pottery: If you're still on, could you tell us how that issue with your rafter ants turned out? ...well I hope?

Well the water never got to THEM.

Actually, I had the people come in a spray Instant Death all about.
On inspection, it does not look like the ants were there for long.
But there is dry-rot and wet-rot (from years ago).
Need to do some change-out of some structural frames and one section of a plate. Big one, that.
Will wait on dry-season. Not a nice prospect...
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Quoting P451:
24 hours of danielle



She has been headed directly at Bermuda the entire time.

I noticed the ring of fire nearly complete also. What is causing the interference to the north?
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Quoting AllStar17:
I expect to see Danielle, Earl, and Fiona by the weekend.


Gaston's probably coming soon enough as well.
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This next run of Models will be important on the Track of Earl....
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2345. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


Indeed. Well I am officially worried haha. Didn't think much but ALL my satellites were outdated so I was thinking the COC had relocated 16.5N and relaxed. Now I update all of them and see this and its like... wow, I will actually have to shave my head!


I'll take the photo, remember! >:D LOL!
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2343. xcool
MechEngMet .anytime..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15707
Quoting txsweetpea:

Is the trough holding strong to curve earl NW?or N?


This is a tough one sweetpea. Danielle speeds up, then slows down, Earl at 17mph. It's all going to depend on 2 things 1. How fast Danielle gets up and out and 2. The speed of Earl as I believe the center is becoming clear @ 15.5
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As promised, here's a new blog update regarding all three systems.

Tropics Coming Alive: Tracking the Cape Verde Train
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I've had some time to do some analysis tonight and man, it's going to be close. I know your in PR, you should have 2 eyes peeled on Earl, forecast CAT4 by then.

Is there anyway that Earl CANT recurve?
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2338. Relix
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I've had some time to do some analysis tonight and man, it's going to be close. I know your in PR, you should have 2 eyes peeled on Earl, forecast CAT4 by then.


Indeed. Well I am officially worried haha. Didn't think much but ALL my satellites were outdated so I was thinking the COC had relocated 16.5N and relaxed. Now I update all of them and see this and its like... wow, I will actually have to shave my head!
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Quoting xcool:


now pass 2009




Nice charts! Thanks. That should quiet the downcasters a bit.
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I expect to see Danielle, Earl, and Fiona by the weekend.
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2335. Relix
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Earl looks like its nearly moving due West if not South some....
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Quoting Relix:


Indeed. Wow my satellites ain't refreshing. I was stuck quite a few frames before. Should have checked time.

That change should bring it closer. I am starting to think this will be a close call or bad for us. Whoops. It's definitely SE of the next point.



I've had some time to do some analysis tonight and man, it's going to be close. I know your in PR, you should have 2 eyes peeled on Earl, forecast CAT4 by then.
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2332. Relix
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2331. Relix
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Your going to see the real Earl in the morning, lol. He's gellin tonight for sure.


Agreed. I said it a few posts before. Should get its game together in the next 12-24 hours.
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Quoting JLPR2:
97L:


I love the blog when it's active, so many nice images and great info all around. :)



yup
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Pottery: If you're still on, could you tell us how that issue with your rafter ants turned out? ...well I hope?
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2328. Seastep
Danielle may go S of W, imo.

Just popped on after analyzing with updated charts. Will be back with support for that possibility. Looking at some other things.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
The track for Earl is going to be dangerously close to the islands by tomorrow afternoon I fear.

Is the trough holding strong to curve earl NW?or N?
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2326. Relix
The center is quite hard to point out.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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