Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

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Hurricane Danielle continues on its steady northwesterly path towards Bermuda, as a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. However, the hurricane has had its troubles this morning--Danielle wrapped a significant amount of dry air into its core between 4am - 8am EDT this morning, and Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops warmed late this morning, indicating that this dry air reduced the vigor of Danielle's thunderstorms. Danielle has managed to quickly mix out most of this dry air and reform its broken eyewall early this afternoon, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1.) We'll get a better idea of Danielle's intensity on Friday afternoon, when the first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled. The storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle. A huge thunderstorm has blown up on the west side of the eyewall, giving the hurricane a rather lopsided appearance.

Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Earl, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle's. As Earl enters the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is steering Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwestward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank has moved away away from the Mexican coast, and does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Earlier StormW said there could be a pattern change in 1-2 weeks and the systems would then approach and possibly hit the CONUS. Does anyone have a link to these forecasts or Storm if you are still there explain.Thanks.


that also is a previous masters blog a couple day back. receding temps in russia and MJO factored in. look for it in his blog section archived
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2475. will40


102 hr
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.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Looks like Earl missed the Danielle connection... maybe he doesn't want to chase after her?


Earl is almost definitely a recurve in my opinion. Synoptic pattern just doesn't favor CV landfalls.
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2472. pottery
Quoting cheetaking:
Danielle's eye continues to get smaller and smaller. But I have to wonder at this point whether it is actually spinning up, or whether the eye is about to collapse. It's shrinking awfully quickly.


Was wondering about that too.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25071
2471. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
uses PSI Hypnosis Alpha on Taz, he falls asleep.

Oops that did not work well into thinking he has 60,000 comments on this website.
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Man,

just spend 5 minutes typing a clarification to TXsweetpea and Poof, figures.

Long story short sweetpea, the same steering mechanisms ARE in place, believe that. The difference being that Danielle is now expected to re-curve faster, allowing the eastern ridge to build in quicker and over Earl driving him further west than Danielle. Beyond the islands is VERY muddy ATM which is why I stressed Sat, Sun to have a better handle.
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2469. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting swflurker:
What happened to the F storm?


It will probably still develop, it's just that it will encounter strong shear associated with Earl by days four and five.
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Quoting EricSFL:


He'll re port you. lol



lol
Quoting serialteg:


can you imagine taz typing under hypnosis



that feels like what am doing right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115502
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Deaths Associated with Hurricane Georges -- Puerto Rico, September 1998

On the evening of September 21, 1998, Hurricane Georges struck Puerto Rico with estimated maximum winds of 115 mph (Category 3). It made multiple landfalls throughout the Caribbean, including Antigua, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, and Cuba. On September 25, Hurricane Georges struck the U.S. mainland near Key West, Florida, and made final landfall on September 27 in Biloxi, Mississippi, as a Category 2 hurricane. This report presents preliminary data about deaths resulting from the hurricane in Puerto Rico.

On September 23, all 78 civil divisions in Puerto Rico reported damage to homes, and 416 government-run shelters were housing approximately 28,000 persons. Approximately 700,000 persons were without water, and 1 million had no electricity.


http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00055476.htm


yup rode that one out here in pr
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Danielle's eye continues to get smaller and smaller, but is also clouding up. And I have to wonder at this point whether it is actually spinning up, or whether the eye is about to collapse. It's shrinking awfully quickly.

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Quoting xcool:
What happened to the F storm?
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Quoting xcool:


Holly crap......i just got goose bumps over my entire body....there is no way out with that one.....
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2461. xcool
hmm gfs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting TampaSpin:
I think we should put TAZ under hYpnosis and tell him he has 60,000 ......geesh....LOL



LOL i like you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115502
Deaths Associated with Hurricane Georges -- Puerto Rico, September 1998

On the evening of September 21, 1998, Hurricane Georges struck Puerto Rico with estimated maximum winds of 115 mph (Category 3). It made multiple landfalls throughout the Caribbean, including Antigua, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, and Cuba. On September 25, Hurricane Georges struck the U.S. mainland near Key West, Florida, and made final landfall on September 27 in Biloxi, Mississippi, as a Category 2 hurricane. This report presents preliminary data about deaths resulting from the hurricane in Puerto Rico.

On September 23, all 78 civil divisions in Puerto Rico reported damage to homes, and 416 government-run shelters were housing approximately 28,000 persons. Approximately 700,000 persons were without water, and 1 million had no electricity.


http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00055476.htm
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2458. EricSFL
Quoting TampaSpin:
I think we should put TAZ under hYpnosis and tell him he has 60,000 ......geesh....LOL


He'll re port you. lol
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I think we should put TAZ under hYpnosis and tell him he has 60,000 ......geesh....LOL


can you imagine taz typing under hypnosis
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2455. 7544
;looks like danile wants to go wst again im getting dizzy withthis one
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I think we should put TAZ under hYpnosis and tell him he has 60,000 ......geesh....LOL
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Quoting xcool:

Looks like Earl missed the Danielle connection... maybe he doesn't want to chase after her?
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2452. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2451. EricSFL
Quoting JavPR:

a night i'll never ever ever forget...


What part of the island were you at during Georges?
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2450. pottery
Quoting MechEngMet:
Good night all. We'll see what the tropics have in store for us tomorrow.

... but for now, dial up some old Steely Dan (FM, Deacon Blues, etc...) pour yourself a stiff one, and have a great evening. See ya tomorrow.

OUT

'nite.
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2449. Relix
Well I am off to bed. G'nite WU!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Good night all. We'll see what the tropics have in store for us tomorrow.

... but for now, dial up some old Steely Dan (FM, Deacon Blues, etc...) pour yourself a stiff one, and have a great evening. See ya tomorrow.

OUT
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2447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
12:00 PM JST August 27 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 26.0N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 31.4N 124.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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2446. texcane
Quoting Tazmanian:
hello


You guys are significantly more knowledgeable, so I have kept to myself trying to learn and remember my meteorology classes in college. You guys crack me up, its like one big family.

It's all speculation at this point, but I sure hope that Earl does not find a way to skirt around that high to the north when it gets closer to conus.
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2445. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2444. JavPR
Quoting Relix:
NHC confirms it then. And now before JLPR leaves....



Man was that a nasty and historic night

a night i'll never ever ever forget...
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Quoting 7544:
hi all notice the new con on page 46 that xcool posted what does the m stand for on the h symbol tia for earl ?


For some reason I assumed it meant Major Hurricane, but yeah that's a good question.
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Danielle has a large windfield and Earl may eventually do the same..hopefully Earl will follow her out and not affect East coast..
Bermuda may be the main target with Earl.so as usual the timing with the lifting trough will be critical...
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2441. 7544
hi all notice the new con on page 46 that xcool posted what does the m stand for on the h symbol tia for earl ?
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2440. pottery
Quoting RadarNerd:


OK.. I said I "think" some use the projected steering layers output from the models when in fact I know they do.

I've seen StormW build path projections from steering layer data derived from the models with my own two eyeballs. There is some interpretation and skill involved there to determine a slightly different result than what the models plot in a movie.

I tried learning the skill myself, but it strains my eyes looking at the wavy little lines. LOL.

No problem with any of that.
It irks me to see posts that say "I dont look at the models..." like I have seen recently.
The models are an integral part of forecasting. Or they SHOULD be.
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2439. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684




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2436. EricSFL
Quoting Relix:
NHC confirms it then. And now before JLPR leaves....



Man was that a nasty and historic night


Tell me about it. I was living in PR back then. My apartment on a 14th floor got flooded with 2 inches of water (that seeped throw the window frames of course). It made the tiled floor of the entire apartment a cracked mess! Most of the furniture was also damaged.
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2435. Gearsts
So is was a 3.I did felt a 3 but wiki wow they need to fix that.Pero wow yo estuve sin luz por 3 meses.
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Quoting Gearsts:
i live here in PR and thats what wiki said
Really, over 5 MPH.
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2433. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting JLPR2:


Dude I live in PR and I'm 100% Georges was a Cat 3 with 115 before or just at landfall.


I've always heard it was a 3 during landfall in PR. Think it's the first time I've heard of it being a Cat 2. Anyway if it wasn't a 3 it was borderline 3 and it felt like a 3 where I live, and that's in a non mountainous region. Can't imagine what it felt like at Monte del Estado.

*Edit cause it was settled before my third attempt at posting appeared. Bah. And 'night JLPR2.*
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Quoting pottery:
Barotropic,
I think that quite a few people here study the 'official' forecasts, and come up with their own forecasts based on that.
Then they claim they never look at models.
It's a Credibility thing, sometimes on here.


OK.. I said I "think" some use the projected steering layers output from the models when in fact I know they do.
Quoting pottery:

I certainly was not referring to you above, Drak.
But there are some who do, I think.
The people who do what I suggest, know who they are LOL.


I've seen StormW build path projections from steering layer data derived from the models with my own two eyeballs. There is some interpretation and skill involved there to determine a slightly different result than what the models plot in a movie.

I tried learning the skill myself, but it strains my eyes looking at the wavy little lines. LOL.

Edit: To add in my visit with him there was considerable time in his analysis comparing the projected steering layers to real time water vapor loops, NAO, MJO projections, and many other things etc.. etc.. He posts about the same tools in piecemeal here, but maybe if one does not see the method from start to finish it's hard visualize.
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2430. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2429. Relix
NHC confirms it then. And now before JLPR leaves....



Man was that a nasty and historic night
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2428. xcool
Weather Underground so hungry oh wow
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2427. JLPR2
Well now I can go xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2426. Ldog74
Quoting TheCname:
My question is why wasn't Gaston retired and replaced after all the flooding rains it caused here in Richmond, VA? Cars and trucks was floating down the strret like toys. So, I thought Gaston was no longer a name.


Although the flooding damage may have been severe in your neck of the woods, overall it was comparably minimal, with only around 120 million dollars in damages. Come the end of the season, that paled in comparision to the 14 or so billion caused by each Ivan and Charley, and the billions more by Frances and Jeanne.

On a slightly related note, I think its interesting that Gaston was upgraded to a minimal hurricane in the 2004 post season analysis.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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