Little change to Danielle; TD 7 forms; flood waters peak in southern Pakistan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hurricane Danielle has changed little in organization over the past 12 hours, and is having trouble with strong upper level westerly winds that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Latest satellite loops show that most of Danielle's low level spiral bands are on the east side of the storm, away from the shear. There is also a considerable amount of dry air on the west side of the storm that is inhibiting thunderstorm formation on the hurricane's west side. Danielle is over warm 28°C water. The Hurricane Hunters will begin flying missions into Danielle on Friday afternoon, since the storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Tropical Depression Seven, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Intensity forecast for Danielle
In the short term, now through Thursday, persistent wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper level winds out of the west should keep any intensification of Danielle slow. The latest wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Friday through Saturday. With SSTs expected to be a warm 28 - 29°C, these conditions may favor a bout of rapid intensification. It is possible Danielle could become a major Category 3 hurricane by Saturday night and Sunday, when it should be making its closest approach to Bermuda.

Track forecast for Danielle
The trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean steering Danielle more to the northwest will wane in influence over the next two days, as a ridge of high pressure moves north of the storm. This will keep Danielle moving generally northwest towards Bermuda over the next three days. On Saturday, a new trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, eventually recurving the storm out to sea without hitting land. However, one model--the NOGAPS--predicts that Danielle will be moving too slowly and that the new trough will not be strong enough to recurve Danielle out to sea. The NOGAPS keeps Danielle moving on a northwest course, passing very close to Bermuda, and coming perilously close the Northeast U.S. coast 7 - 8 days from now. The NOGAPS is an outlier in the models, and the official NHC forecast follows the consensus of our other reliable models, calling for Danielle to turn towards the north this weekend and miss Bermuda. These models include the three best-performing models from last year at making 4 - 5 day forecasts--the Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS models. Assuming Danielle follows the official NHC track, Bermuda can expect the storm's outer winds to reach the island Saturday night. NHC is giving Bermuda a 39% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 9% chance of getting hurricane force winds.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 15% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 6 - 9 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest nearshore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday through Sunday. Waves will be much higher in Bermuda, where the Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 10 - 15 foot waves this weekend.


Figure 2. Wave forecast for the Atlantic made by NOAA's Wavewatch III model for Sunday morning, August 29, 2010. The model was run at 2am EDT Wednesday, August 25. The model is predicting that waves from Danielle of 2 - 3 meters (6 - 9 feet) will begin affecting the offshore waters from northern Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Sunday. These waves will cause considerable beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

Tropical Depression Seven
Satellite images show that the tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa Monday has become Tropical Depression Seven. Satellite estimates of TD 7's strength support calling this a 35 mph tropical depression, and latest satellite loops show a well-organized system with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, plenty of low-level spiral banding, and expanding upper-level outflow to the north. This is likely to be Tropical Storm Earl later today. Tropical Depression Seven is now well east of the Cape Verdes Islands, and has a large stretch of open ocean before it. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of TD 7, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Seven
Wind shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next three days. SSTs will cool a bit to 27.5°C by Thursday, but this is still above the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane development. TD 7 may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which may interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for TD 7 over the next three days. The SHIPS model is indicating an increase in wind shear to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, 4 - 5 days from now. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of TD 7 into Hurricane Earl 4 -5 days from now.

The long range fate of TD 7 remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As TD 7 approaches the central Atlantic 4 - 6 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is expected to turn Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn TD 7 far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, it is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve TD 7 out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets and how fast it moves. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering TD 7, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make TD 7 more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in TD 7's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this morning (Figure 1.) The latest GFS model run develops this wave into a tropical depression 3 - 4 days from now. I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and the GFS models has successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and TD 7 over the past two weeks. This new wave probably has a better chance of hitting the U.S. East Coast than either Danielle or TD 7.

Over in the Gulf of Mexico, a trough of low pressure is generating some disorganized thunderstorm activity. This action may increase on Thursday and Friday, when a cold front is expected to move off the coast of Texas and over the Gulf. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this area of disturbed weather developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Any storm that might develop over the Gulf of Mexico from this disturbance would likely not stay over water long enough to develop into a hurricane, and none of the computer models currently support tropical cyclone development in the Gulf over the next seven days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Frank has moved away the coast far enough from the Mexican coast to no longer pose a heavy rainfall threat, and all tropical storm warnings have been dropped.

Flood waters peak in southern Pakistan
Flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has peaked at the 2nd highest flow rates on record today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, at Kotri. Today's flow rate was 938,000 cubic feet/sec, and the record, set in 1956, was 980,000 cubic feet/sec. The new flooding has forced new evacuations of hundreds of thousands of people in southern Pakistan over the past four days. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Flooding has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches of the Indus where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August, though most of the flooded regions remain underwater and 800,000 people are still cut off from receiving aid.

More rain is in the forecast, and flood waters will only gradually subside in coming weeks. The monsoon is currently in an active phase, and is being enhanced by a low pressure system passing over the northern portion of the country. Rainfall will be moderate to heavy in some of the flooded regions over the next two days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 3. Flood volumes on Pakistan's main river, the Indus, during August 2010. Flood height have generally been declining in recent weeks along most of the Indus, but are peaking right now near the coast. Image credit: Pakistan Meteorology Department.


Figure 4. Image of the Pakistan flood catastrophe of 2010, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

The toll in Pakistan is staggering: 1,600 dead, 1.2 million homes destroyed, 800,000 stranded and cut off from supplies, 4 million homeless, and 1.6 million already affected by water-borne diseases such as cholera and dysentery. Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3535 - 3485

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

3535. aspectre
3:36 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Now checking if the Link button is still disabled.
GreatCircleMapper -- http://www.gcmap.com/
NHC-ATC -- ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al062010.invest
NHC.Adv(isory archive for Danielle) -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/SIX.shtml?

[Edit in] Yep, disabled.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
3534. AllStar17
3:30 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Where is Earl's 11:00 am Projected Path?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
3533. cellman007
3:29 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting captainhunter:
Hello all. Just curious to see how long I've been a member.



Morning from a lurker, just cheking too
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
3532. RipplinH2O
3:27 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Howdy all
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
3531. oracle28
3:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Request:

Could someone post the 11 AM update.
Again?
And Again?

One more time, please.
Thank you.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
3530. Bayside
3:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting tulsahurrcane:
Good Morning Storm. Thanks again for a good synopsis!


Member Since: August 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

This comment count thing doesn't work or that would mean this is her first ever post, and I am sure it's not...
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
3529. kmanislander
3:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What about a tranquilizer dart?


You hold the horns and I will shoot him !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3528. Prgal
3:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3527. mfaria101
3:23 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:


Why- I NEVER...!


LOL!
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
3526. wunderkidcayman
3:23 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
no VAbeachhurricanes goes between cuba and Haiti and comes knocking on your door LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
3525. hurricanehanna
3:22 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting StormW:
HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL STORM EARL SYNOPSIS AUG. 26, 2010


Thanks Storm! And have a very Happy Birthday tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
3524. VAbeachhurricanes
3:22 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:
Good day again

I noticed that the in the discussion on Earl the NHC mentioned the point I brought up this morning as to Earl potentially being forced further West by a rebuilding high in the event Danielle lifts out quicker.

This to me this is perhaps the single most important thing to watch out for. Not only is there danger of being further West and South but of perhaps even greater significance is that if Earl stays far enough South it may miss the pull of the trough to the N at the point where it is supposed to recurve.

If it escapes to the West then we face the bull in a china shop scenario. No way out the door without doing a lot of damage.


What about a tranquilizer dart?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5707
3523. IKE
3:21 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:


Why- I NEVER...!


LMAO!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3522. kmanislander
3:21 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Good day again

I noticed that in the discussion on Earl the NHC mentioned the point I brought up this morning as to Earl potentially being forced further West by a rebuilding high in the event Danielle lifts out quicker.

This to me is perhaps the single most important thing to watch out for. Not only is there danger of being further West and South but of perhaps even greater significance is that if Earl stays far enough South it may miss the pull of the trough to the N at the point where it is supposed to recurve.

If it escapes to the West then we face the bull in a china shop scenario. No way out the door without doing a lot of damage.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3521. MoltenIce
3:21 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Hurricane Frank in the EPAC.

Hurricane Danielle.

Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
3520. VAstorms
3:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting Prgal:


Clicking on his user name.

Got it and thanks to StormW for the update.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
3519. VAbeachhurricanes
3:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:


Not a Caribbean Tracker!


No probably right at his house!!!!!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5707
3517. kshipre1
3:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Storm,

do you think Earl's wind and slightly cooler SST's could hinder potential Fiona's development? thanks
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3516. SaintPatrick
3:17 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Thanks for synopsis StormW!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
3515. tulsahurrcane
3:17 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Good Morning Storm. Thanks again for a good synopsis!
Member Since: August 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
3514. CosmicEvents
3:17 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Click on my handle.
That doesn't sound quite right.:)
Good morning.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5462
3511. WhoDat42
3:16 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting StormW:
HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL STORM EARL SYNOPSIS AUG. 26, 2010


thx Storm, did Levi show you how to video your synopsis?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
3509. WxLogic
3:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Good morning...

12Z NAM depicting a strong DLM High setting up across E CONUS into the extreme W ATL. With a weak Earl getting rather close to the northern Leeward Islands... if Earl does not strengthen soon it won't be able to feel the weakness Danielle might leave behind.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
3508. captainhunter
3:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Hello all. Just curious to see how long I've been a member.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
3507. Prgal
3:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting VAstorms:

How did you get to Storm's synopsis?


Clicking on his user name.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3506. will40
3:14 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
StormW i think my post got eaten but they recoded the program yesterday and it messed up the blog so bad that they reverted back. they said they would fix it this morn. They are in i Cal think so it may be a while
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
3503. VAstorms
3:14 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting Prgal:
Thank you Storm for the synopsis. Do you think that Earl will hit the Antilles then? PR?

How did you get to Storm's synopsis?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
3502. Prgal
3:14 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Right now, my thoughts are no. Gonna depend, like I have in my forecast.


Ok, thanks. You know I will always ask the same question about the Antilles lol.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3501. aspectre
3:13 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
HurricaneDanielle's heading had turned northward to 4.3degrees west of NorthWest
from the previous heading of 7.6degrees west of NorthWest

NHC.Adv.
25Aug - 03pmGMT - 19.6n52.3w - - 85mph . . . . . 982mb - NHC.Adv.
25Aug - 06pmGMT - 20.6n52.7w - - 75knots . . . . 982mb - NHC-ATCF
25Aug - 09pmGMT - 21.2n53.1w - - 85mph . . . . . 982mb - NHC.Adv.17
26Aug - 12amGMT - 22.0n53.6w - - 80knots . . . . 978mb - NHC-ATCF *53.5w*978mb
H.Danielle becomes Cat.2 again.
26Aug - 03amGMT - 22.4n54.1w - - 100mph . . . . 975mb - NHC.Adv.18
26Aug - 06amGMT - 23.0n54.4w - - 85knots . . . . 973mb - NHC-ATCF
26Aug - 09amGMT - 23.4n54.9w - - 105mph . . . . 968mb - NHC.Adv.19
26Aug - 12pmGMT - 24.0n55.4w - - 90knots . . . . 970mb - NHC-ATCF
26Aug - 03pmGMT - 24.4n55.9w - - 105mph . . . . 970mb - NHC.Adv.20
* before the NHC reevaluated&altered their data points
_ _ _ ~91.3knots=105mph _ _ _ 90knots=~103.5mph _ _ _ ~91.3knots=105mph
NHC rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots.

Copy&paste 19.6n52.3w, 20.6n52.7w, 21.2n53.1w, 22.0n53.6w, 22.4n54.1w-23.0n54.4w, 23.0n54.4w-23.4n54.9w, 23.4n54.9w-24.0n55.4w, 24.0n55.4w-24.4n55.9w, bda, jax into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

And I see that linking is still disabled.
GreatCircleMapper --- http://www.gcmap.com/
NHC-ATCF -- ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al062010.invest
NHC.Adv(isory archive for Danielle) -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/SIX.shtml?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
3497. Prgal
3:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting Prgal:
Thank you Storm for the synopsis. Do you think that Earl will hit the Antilles then? PR?


Oh, and I know its still far from the Antilles and that things might change.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3496. kshipre1
3:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Storm,

good morning. in your analysis of the wave about to exit Africa, do you think this will become Fiona?

probably a crazy question but with earl ahead of this wave, has this caused more wind shear and slightly cooler SST's to inhibit development?

Also, on a side note, I saw the image of Africa with the lines you drew indicating the next waves. Your saying of "all aboard" is indeed correct. Thanks.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3495. wunderkidcayman
3:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
quite true DestinJeff and if it bulds back fast and strong surely EARL will be a caribbean storm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
3493. Bayside
3:10 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Molten ice posted this pic above. This sure makes it look like that ridge is toast for sure, the door is open... thanks for the scare Danielle, I won't miss you...

Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
3492. Prgal
3:10 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Thank you Storm for the synopsis. Do you think that Earl will hit the Antilles then? PR?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3491. tropicfreak
3:10 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
the options above the commment box work on explorer but not on chrome.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
3489. kshipre1
3:09 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
correct, that is what I thought due to the trough left behind by Danielle. I think the overall guidance was shifted a bit southward but still should not miss the trough
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3487. tulsahurrcane
3:08 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Actually, a couple of years ago the blog voted and decided to include Bermuda but we threw Nova Scotia under the bus.
That's funny!!
Member Since: August 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
3485. RitaEvac
3:08 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Geez I've been using wunderground since tracking tropical storm Allison in 2001 that hit at my doorstep, damn.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625

Viewing: 3535 - 3485

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.