Danielle a hurricane; TD 7 forming off coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2010

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Hurricane Danielle has stopped intensifying and is now looking a bit ragged this morning, but remains a respectable Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The intensity of Danielle's heavy thunderstorms has waned in the past few hours, and the organization of the storm is less impressive. This is probably due do strong upper-level winds out of the west that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and injecting some of the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that surrounds Danielle. Danielle is over warm 28°C water, but is far from any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Danielle (left side of image) and the forming Tropical Depression Seven (right side of image.)

Forecast for Danielle
A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Danielle more to the northwest by Wednesday, keeping Danielle well to the east of Bermuda. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Danielle out to sea. It is possible that Danielle could eventually threaten Newfoundland, Canada, but it currently does not appear that any other land areas will be at risk from this storm. History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. As far as intensity goes, it is looking unlikely that Danielle will attain major hurricane status (115+ mph winds.) There is enough dry air and wind shear affecting the storm today that it will take several days for the storm to recover its strength, making it less likely the storm can hit Category 3.

The formation of Danielle is remarkable in this it was successfully forecast by the GFS model nearly two weeks in advance. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also did a good job of predicting Danielle's formation a week in advance. The models are getting better and better each year at forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones, though a successful 1-week forecast of genesis is still a rarity. For example, none of the models foresaw the development of 96L until just 3 - 4 days ago.


Figure 2. Plot showing historically the percent chance of a tropical cyclone in a given location impacting the U.S. East Coast. For storms in Danielle's current position (orange hurricane symbol), about 20% of them go on to hit the U.S. East Coast. For storms in 96L's current location (red circle with a "?" in it), the odds are also 20%. Image credit: Bob Hart, Florida State University.

96L (soon to be Tropical Depression Seven)
Satellite images suggests that a tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday morning has developed a closed circulation, low-level spiral bands, and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms. While this morning's ASCAT pass does not show a clear closed circulation, satellite estimates of 96L's strength support calling this a 30 mph tropical depression. It is likely that this storm will be designated Tropical Depression Seven later today. 96L is already bringing heavy rain and strong, gusty winds to the southern Cape Verde Islands. Winds were sustained at 26 mph at Mindelo in the northwest Cape Verde Islands this morning, and 24 mph at Praia, the station closest to the center of 96L. Both stations were reporting widespread dust, due to strong winds blowing Saharan dust from the coast of Africa. However, water vapor satellite images show that only a modest amount of dry air is accompanying this dust, and dry air is currently not a major detriment to 96L. Wind shear is about 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are warm, 28°C.

Forecast for 96L/Tropical Depression Seven
Wind shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next four days. SSTs will cool a bit to 27°C by Thursday, but this is still above the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for 96L. Most of the intensity forecast models bring 96L to hurricane strength by four days from now, and this is a reasonable forecast. 96L should become Tropical Storm Earl later today or on Wednesday, and will probably bring sustained winds of 40 mph to the southernmost Cape Verdes Islands tonight and Wednesday.

The long range fate of 96L remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. 96L may encounter the cold waters stirred up by Danielle at times this week, inhibiting development. As 96L approaches the central Atlantic five days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that will be steering Danielle, and 96L should turn more to the northwest. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve 96L out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering 96L, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make 96L more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in 96L's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

When will the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico get active?
The large scale atmospheric circulation over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico currently features relatively dry, stable, sinking air. This is due, in part, to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The latest MJO forecast from the GFS model calls for the wet phase of the MJO to move into the Caribbean during the first week of September. However, keep in mind that forecasts of MJO activity 1 - 2 weeks in advance are not very skillful. The GFS model forecast of MJO activity made two weeks ago did fairly well for the first week, but poorly for the second week of the forecast.

Tropical Storm Frank spares Mexico
Over in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Frank has moved away the coast far enough from the Mexican coast to no longer pose a heavy rainfall threat, and all tropical storm warnings have been dropped.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. I'll focus on Danielle, Earl, and Frank, and discuss the possibilities of a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane period coming during the first week of September.

Today's show will be 30 - 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3248. calder
Quoting dmaddox:
well i see it now but didn't see it at 845am Eastern anywhere


On navy site, they are the first to renumber invests.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


Coffee break was just over apparently. Now the fun begins, or more fun begins. Let's see what WOPR and HAL churn out.


I think WOPR just wants to play a game of Thermonuclear War and HAL is just very mad at being programmed contradictory.
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF
2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON
THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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The current Sea Surface Temperature (SST) map. Notice the curved line of yellow (cooler temps) in the far right of the image caused by Danielle-induced upwelling:



The current 26°C isotherm depth chart, showing hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean with 26°C or warmer water down to between 250' (green) and 325' (yellow) below the surface, while in the Caribbean, 26°C water extends down to 500' or so (orange/red).



The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the red and pink areas in the Caribbean and along the north coast of Cuba have a pretty remarkable TCHP of between 110 and 140 kJ/cm2 or higher.

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Good morning guys I have beem lurking around for the past half hour

anyway we have TD7 from NRL

07L.SEVEN, TRACK_VIS, 25 AUG 2010 1415Z UTC (Z)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
3241. Bonedog
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF
2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON
THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
TD #7 is on the NHC site....just no pics/visuals yet. It's right under Danielle's info.


I see it now! Thanks
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West She Heads...
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I see a nice hook to the west with Danielle over the last frame. I really thought the turn would happen by now, As the weakness closes, the models may shift west (again) later today.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
3237. calder
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?


Waiting for 11am to classify.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
Frank becomes a hurricane.
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Quoting stoormfury:
it is beginning to appear that there could be double trouble down the road. the trough that was suppose to take Danielle off to sea is weakening. the ridge now seems to be rebuilding and going a little more west. at the moment DAnielle and what i pesume to be TD7 are both moving west in response to the strenghening ridge. the whole scenario will change if ther eare no unforseen changes in the upper level environment



I kept saying that Danielle could miss the two troughs. She missed one and if the other trough is weak then we do got trouble. But it appears yesterday a few of the models including the Gfs, were showing an EC hit now the models show Danielle going out to sea. While the other models that were showing Danielle going out to sea including the Gfdl, show her hitting the EC. Lol. Danielle is still moving wnw and has maintained 17 mph speed since yesterday, after dropping from 20. Doesn't Danielle have to slow down considerbly to make that nw turn? I won't write Danielle off until she is out to sea, until then she is definetly something to watch.jmo
Member Since: July 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
3232. dmaddox
well i see it now but didn't see it at 845am Eastern anywhere
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I'm not liking that westerly trend in the track in every advisory, if this continues I could be dealing with a hurricane on my doorstep here in Richmond Va.
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TD #7 is on the NHC site....just no pics/visuals yet. It's right under Danielle's info.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
do we have TD 7 yet? I mean, since we have a near 100% chance, which pretty much solidifies that there is a TD, just want to know if has been declared official yet.


I think we have earl.....IMO
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Check out the visible cloud flow North of 20N, along 55W

Link

Expect D to gain more longitude than latitude, at least over the next 6 - 12 hours.


which means another trac shift to the west is possible.

And 96L hasnt been officially classified as a TD by the NHC unless someone wants to post that here as proof?
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SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 30.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


TD 7 is moving westward
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Check out the visible cloud flow North of 20N, along 55W

Link

Expect D to gain more longitude than latitude, at least over the next 6 - 12 hours.


West she blows!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
I guess it is a TD lol so i guess i answered my own question.
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3221. dmaddox
where did you see that at Neapolitan? cant find it anywhere on NHC's website....
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3220. 7544
morning all shes moving due west again hmmm ?
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 251433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 30.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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do we have TD 7 yet? I mean, since we have a near 100% chance, which pretty much solidifies that there is a TD, just want to know if has been declared official yet.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


there is too much vertical wind sheer right now in the GOM and not enough time right now for this to materialize unless something changes. Models are not picking up on any GOM developments but it is something for residents in the GOM to monitor as it should be a good rain maker.
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3214. Bonedog
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?


It IS TD7 already
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?


But it has been classified as a TD. Happened aT 8:45 AM EDT...
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I am not sure if Storm said it but yes there is another trof coming down... look at US water vapor imagery and you will be able to see the trof easily (Link) it will be moving into western NY today and tonight.


Thunder~~ Thanks for the link, I seen it. It looks like a strong trough. so maybe it will do it's job.
sheri
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Quoting btwntx08:
lol nhc said western gom is unfavorable o really theres an anticyclone over it


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Quoting DestinJeff:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3209. wxhatt
Quoting kshipre1:
what's with all the troughs this year? Seems strange when so much empahasis this year was on landfall threats.

Please share your thoughts but I heard that September is going to show a much stronger High building westward.


I agree; "if" the High builds westward...
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3208. markot
looks like danielle is moving due west, not wnw.
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I have to believe at 11 we will have Earl, not TD7
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Quoting UpperLevelLOL:
Can we stop with the New Orleans/Florida loops unless there's a disturbance there? Really clog up the blog where 2 actual storms are forming


Because why? Neither of the 2 actual storms are ANY threat to land any time in the near future. The possible home grown disturbance int he Gulf IS a threat to land and can easily blow up overnight and be a threat. Living very close to where it is trying to form I would like information on it. Is it really so hard to skip over posts you aren't interested in?
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3205. HCW
TD#7 model runs from the NHC . Sure does look fishy


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what's with all the troughs this year? Seems strange when so much empahasis this year was on landfall threats.

Please share your thoughts but I heard that September is going to show a much stronger High building westward.
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The season tally will be up to 5-2-0 later today...but with things proceeding as they are with Danielle, the nascent Earl, and perhaps that whatever-it-is in the GoM, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it up to 6-3-1 by, say, tomorrow evening...

Here's a nice WV image of Danielle, soon-to-be-Earl, possibly-to-be-Fiona, and even a just-might-end-up-being Gaston (that small, dark swirl in northern Nigeria has already caught the attention of the pouch trackers, who may christen it PGI37L later today).

Click for larger image:
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