Danielle a hurricane; TD 7 forming off coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2010

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Hurricane Danielle has stopped intensifying and is now looking a bit ragged this morning, but remains a respectable Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The intensity of Danielle's heavy thunderstorms has waned in the past few hours, and the organization of the storm is less impressive. This is probably due do strong upper-level winds out of the west that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and injecting some of the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that surrounds Danielle. Danielle is over warm 28°C water, but is far from any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Danielle (left side of image) and the forming Tropical Depression Seven (right side of image.)

Forecast for Danielle
A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Danielle more to the northwest by Wednesday, keeping Danielle well to the east of Bermuda. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Danielle out to sea. It is possible that Danielle could eventually threaten Newfoundland, Canada, but it currently does not appear that any other land areas will be at risk from this storm. History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. As far as intensity goes, it is looking unlikely that Danielle will attain major hurricane status (115+ mph winds.) There is enough dry air and wind shear affecting the storm today that it will take several days for the storm to recover its strength, making it less likely the storm can hit Category 3.

The formation of Danielle is remarkable in this it was successfully forecast by the GFS model nearly two weeks in advance. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also did a good job of predicting Danielle's formation a week in advance. The models are getting better and better each year at forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones, though a successful 1-week forecast of genesis is still a rarity. For example, none of the models foresaw the development of 96L until just 3 - 4 days ago.


Figure 2. Plot showing historically the percent chance of a tropical cyclone in a given location impacting the U.S. East Coast. For storms in Danielle's current position (orange hurricane symbol), about 20% of them go on to hit the U.S. East Coast. For storms in 96L's current location (red circle with a "?" in it), the odds are also 20%. Image credit: Bob Hart, Florida State University.

96L (soon to be Tropical Depression Seven)
Satellite images suggests that a tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday morning has developed a closed circulation, low-level spiral bands, and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms. While this morning's ASCAT pass does not show a clear closed circulation, satellite estimates of 96L's strength support calling this a 30 mph tropical depression. It is likely that this storm will be designated Tropical Depression Seven later today. 96L is already bringing heavy rain and strong, gusty winds to the southern Cape Verde Islands. Winds were sustained at 26 mph at Mindelo in the northwest Cape Verde Islands this morning, and 24 mph at Praia, the station closest to the center of 96L. Both stations were reporting widespread dust, due to strong winds blowing Saharan dust from the coast of Africa. However, water vapor satellite images show that only a modest amount of dry air is accompanying this dust, and dry air is currently not a major detriment to 96L. Wind shear is about 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are warm, 28°C.

Forecast for 96L/Tropical Depression Seven
Wind shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next four days. SSTs will cool a bit to 27°C by Thursday, but this is still above the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for 96L. Most of the intensity forecast models bring 96L to hurricane strength by four days from now, and this is a reasonable forecast. 96L should become Tropical Storm Earl later today or on Wednesday, and will probably bring sustained winds of 40 mph to the southernmost Cape Verdes Islands tonight and Wednesday.

The long range fate of 96L remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. 96L may encounter the cold waters stirred up by Danielle at times this week, inhibiting development. As 96L approaches the central Atlantic five days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that will be steering Danielle, and 96L should turn more to the northwest. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve 96L out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering 96L, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make 96L more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in 96L's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

When will the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico get active?
The large scale atmospheric circulation over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico currently features relatively dry, stable, sinking air. This is due, in part, to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The latest MJO forecast from the GFS model calls for the wet phase of the MJO to move into the Caribbean during the first week of September. However, keep in mind that forecasts of MJO activity 1 - 2 weeks in advance are not very skillful. The GFS model forecast of MJO activity made two weeks ago did fairly well for the first week, but poorly for the second week of the forecast.

Tropical Storm Frank spares Mexico
Over in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Frank has moved away the coast far enough from the Mexican coast to no longer pose a heavy rainfall threat, and all tropical storm warnings have been dropped.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. I'll focus on Danielle, Earl, and Frank, and discuss the possibilities of a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane period coming during the first week of September.

Today's show will be 30 - 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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2749. aquak9
wish I could spend the day here, but alas, duties call.

Be kind to each other. Go in peace, carry on.
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2748. IKE
Quoting barotropic:


The 6Z gfs appears to continue to indicate recurvature but it also continues to show a very slow moving storm. In nearly three days as the storm moves to the east of Bermuda (hopefully), she moves only about 6 degrees north in nearly 3 days. What that may do is prevent the weakness from closing between the ridging and allow Earl (if he developes), to gain latitude. Either way it seem a pretty big hole is going to be chewed in the atlantic ridge with such a slow moving storm. This may be good news with the heart of the season upon us. Atleast for the SE seaboard IMO.


GFS has it near 23N and 57W in 48 hours. The direction it appears to be moving now, it would almost have to turn WNW to reach that. It may be too far west with it....

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Quoting aquak9:
G'morning gentlemen, all around the world. G'morning ladies, if there's any lurking.

Nothing to add, will sit quietly and sip coffee. Nod m'head and chuckle on occasion.

Contemplatin'.


Mornin Aqua!!
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2746. IKE
Quoting Claudette1234:


Morning. Yes IKE youre right i tracking with google earth and is moving more north as you say.


I thought it was....I've looked at it again and again....that's what it looks like to me. I could be wrong...or maybe it's temporary.
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2745. aquak9
G'morning gentlemen, all around the world. G'morning ladies, if there's any lurking.

Nothing to add, will sit quietly and sip coffee. Nod m'head and chuckle on occasion.

Contemplatin'.
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like she's north of the forecast point. And moving more NNW.

A possibility that this model could wind up being correct..."IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...
SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT."


The 6Z gfs appears to continue to indicate recurvature but it also continues to show a very slow moving storm. In nearly three days as the storm moves to the east of Bermuda (hopefully), she moves only about 6 degrees north in nearly 3 days. What that may do is prevent the weakness from closing between the ridging and allow Earl (if he developes), to gain latitude. Either way it seem a pretty big hole is going to be chewed in the atlantic ridge with such a slow moving storm. This may be good news with the heart of the season upon us. Atleast for the SE seaboard IMO.
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Reading.

Now famous for a football club thanks to a usual NFL writer, its music festival, and a weather model.

What a motley combination.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting IKE:
Looks like she's north of the forecast point. And moving more NNW.

A possibility that this model could wind up being correct..."IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...
SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT."


Morning. Yes IKE youre right i tracking with google earth and is moving more north as you say.
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Last shear maps.
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2740. IKE
Looks like she's north of the forecast point. And moving more NNW.

A possibility that this model could wind up being correct..."IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...
SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT."
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Morning all,

Danielle seems moving WNW, and some signs of weakeness, probably Shear.
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Its going to get interesting if danielle has or does slow down as future TD7 seems to be moving rather quickly and is going to be coming up on danielle rather quickly
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2737. Engine2
Good Morning everyone, I see the GFS backed off its 18z
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Quoting barotropic:


IMO it appears forward motion may have also slowed a bit


Meaning she's finally feeling the forecast weakness.
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yeah, they get up in about 45 minutes, thanks, it's good to see you post in here!
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Quoting IKE:
Danielle appears to have turned to a direction more northerly than previous...Link


IMO it appears forward motion may have also slowed a bit
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morning chief, sorry we didn't get to meet up this summer, the kids had me running like a mad man!
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2729. IKE
Danielle appears to have turned to a direction more northerly than previous...Link
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Good morning from Texas. I'd say it probably will be at least td 7 today. Last night NHC gave it 90%. But haven't seen how it's doing this morning yet.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.



Cool new handle...(Name)!!
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2727. teammc
Good Morning, StormW

How long do you thing we are going to get rain on the West Coast of FL.
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2726. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
METEO FRANCE
===================

Low 1008 hPa 14N 27W, moving West or Northwest 10/15 kts and deepening.

Threat of Cyclonic near gale or gale over southwest of CAPE VERDE and northwest of SIERRA
LEONE.
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Quoting Vince2005:
Hello everyone:

Do you think that during this day the invest 96 L may be a tropical depression 07 L?

Greetings from Spain.


Good morning from Texas. I'd say it probably will be at least td 7 today. Last night NHC gave it 90%. But haven't seen how it's doing this morning yet.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

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Quoting StormW:


Good morning!

Oh...thanks for your help again, a few months ago.


Thank YOU Sir for your Help and Knowledge and Patients during the this very very interesting Hurricaine season....I am available any time you need me sir!
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Quoting StormW:

I was.

Yes !
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2715.

LMBO! Morning, Storm. Coffee and cinnamon toast on the sideboard this morning - help yourself.
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Quoting StormW:


I was.


:)
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Quoting StormW:


I was.


Morning Chief.....We All know YOU DA MAN!!
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Morn Storm, we've had 3" since midnight at Yankeetown, FL
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2714. IKE
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CORPUS CHRISTI

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS 12Z AND 00Z MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN WET/DRY SOLUTIONS. AND MUCH OF THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS ON
WHETHER A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
NW GULF. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE
SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE THIS WEAK FEATURE INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A WET FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z
NAM DEVELOP A T.D. AND MOVE IT NWD TOWARD THE PALACIOUS AREA WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS KEEPING THE MID
COAST MOSTLY DRY. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INDICATE CHC POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF
AN THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION PANS OUT IT WILL BE A WET WEEKEND WITH HVY
RAIN PSBL. BUT IF A LOW DVLPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER COAST WE
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. EXPECT CHC OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALOFT AND PWS REMAIN ABOVE 2
INCHES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

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Morning Ike, Kori, et al.

today's forecast for VABeach

Today
Cloudy until late afternoon...then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers early this morning...then isolated showers late this morning and afternoon. Highs around 80. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming northeast this afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.


Looks as if we'll finish clearing out by Friday and have some sun for the weekend - nice temps through Sunday - warmer next week.
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Lake Charles

INVERTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF MIGRATES WEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH ACCOMPANYING ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND NORTH TO NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND. WILL
TREND POPS TO LOWER AND MORE SEASONAL LEVELS GOING INTO THE WORKWEEK.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS CWFA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BLEND WITH
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA.
HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE OVER SW AND JUST WEST OF OUR REGION (1.7 TO
1.8 INCHES) WHILE OUR NE ZONES RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ONE
INCH. WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE SW AND W OF REGION...WE SHALL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SW ZONES AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN ZONES AT LEAST
FOR THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS TO
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK
AND PUSH INLAND SATURDAY BRINGING A DEEP MOIST LAYER OVER OUR
REGION ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR COASTAL REGION
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS COMING WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM THE UPPER
80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. 37

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AL, 96, 2010082506, , BEST, 0, 140N, 280W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Drop of 1mb.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2707. IKE
Looks to me like Danielle is taking a more northerly turn.


Quoting Vince2005:
Hello everyone:

Do you think that during this day the invest 96 L may be a tropical depression 07 L?

Greetings from Spain.


Could be designated soon.
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Quoting Vince2005:
Hello everyone:

Do you think that during this day the invest 96 L may be a tropical depression 07 L?

Greetings from Spain.


It likely will.
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Hello everyone:

Do you think that during this day the invest 96 L may be a tropical depression 07 L?

Greetings from Spain.
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Quoting barotropic:


Of course if it was to hit somewhere you know whats coming from the same bloggers, right????



"MAY GOD BLESS and protect THEM"


LOL - it just doesnt get more entertaining than this, I tell ya!!!


That's why I come here....Learn from the Pro's and laugh at the know it alls!!
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Quoting IKE:


I hope they're correct. That would get the dew points into the 60's.




LOL.

No comment beyond the LOL.


Of course if it was to hit somewhere you know whats coming from the same bloggers, right????



"MAY GOD BLESS and protect THEM"


LOL - it just doesnt get more entertaining than this, I tell ya!!!
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The convective burst has subsided now, but outflow is also starting to get better on the west side, so I'm still thinking that this thing could get stronger tomorrow.

It is, however, good to see the models starting to come into agreement again about this thing being successfully recurved out to sea. That was getting a bit scary for a while there.
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HurricaneDanielle's heading has turned westward to 1.8degrees north of NorthNorthWest
from the previous heading of 9.5degrees north of NorthNorthWest.

24Aug - 09amGMT - 15.9n44.6w - - 100mph . _ . 973mb - NHC.Adv.11
24Aug - 12pmGMT - 16.1n45.8w - - 75knots . . . . 983mb - NHC-ATCF
24Aug - 03pmGMT - 16.6n46.5w - - 80mph . . . . . 985mb - NHC.Adv.12
24Aug - 06pmGMT - 17.1n47.5w - - 65knots . . . . 990mb - NHC-ATCF
H.Danielle becomes TS.Danielle
24Aug - 09pmGMT - 17.5n48.2w - - 70mph . . . . . 993mb - NHC.Adv.13
25Aug - 12amGMT - 17.9n49.1w - - 65knots . . . . 990mb - NHC-ATCF
TS.Danielle becomes H.Danielle again
25Aug - 03amGMT - 18.2n49.8w - - 75mph . . . . . 990mb - NHC.Adv.14
25Aug - 06amGMT - 18.5n50.3w - - 75knots . . . . 990mb - NHC-ATCF
25Aug - 09pmGMT - 18.8n51.0w - - 85mph . . . . . 982mb - NHC.Adv.15

_ _ _ ~65.2knots=75mph _ _ _ 75knots=~86.3mph _ _ _ ~73.9knots=85mph
NHC rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 16.6n46.5w, 17.1n47.5w, 17.5n48.2w-17.9n49.1w, 17.9n49.1w-18.2n49.8w, 18.2n49.8w-18.5n50.3w, 18.5n50.3w-18.8n51.0w, bda, jax into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
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Quoting IKE:
Day 86...97 days left and it's over...thankfully.


Amen Brother!!
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2699. IKE
Day 86...97 days left and it's over...thankfully.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.